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On February 27 2022 23:48 KlaCkoN wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 23:04 Sadist wrote:
If Russia and Ukraine were to negotiate a ceasefire or a peace treaty how long do you think the sanctions remain in place? Id assume a portion of them remain no matter what but id think the heaviest sanctions would go away fairly quickly
I mean I hope they would all go away pretty quickly. One of the main point of the sanctions as I see it is to make him stop attacking. If the attack stops and the sanctions dont go away there is no incentive for him to negotiate. The contentious point here I guess will be the status of the Crimea. In my opinion the Ukraine should (if given the option) be forced to give it up in return for peace and no sanctions. But we will see what happens, as of right now it seems more likely that Putin will turn all of Ukraine into Grozny rather than retreat 
Putin is a dictator, but it doesn’t mean public opinion is irrelevant or anything. The war is already unpopular and with the body count mounting will become unsustainable.
The most bizarre aspect of the war is how badly prepared it has been. No one with half a functioning brain can see it as anything else than an unprovocked invasion, and Putin did a horrible job at preparing or justifying it. Even Napoleon and Hitler had better casus bellis than that when they were invading places.
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So Russian ATM's appear to have run out of foreign currency,.. no idea if/when Currency exchanges update their futures like stocks do. Or if they even have a Futures.
Russians lined up at cash machines around the country to withdraw foreign currency as new sanctions to punish the Kremlin for its invasion of Ukraine sparked fear the ruble could collapse.
The rush for foreign currency came despite some lenders selling dollars at more than a third higher than the market’s close on Friday, and well past the psychologically important level of 100 rubles per dollar that many economists said would trigger an interest-rate hike by the Bank of Russia. The shock came as Russians were still digesting news that Europe was closing its airspace to them and popular payment systems like ApplePay would stop working.
“I’ve stood in lines for an hour, but foreign currency is gone everywhere, just rubles,” said Vladimir, a 28-year-old programmer who declined to give his last name, while waiting in a long line at an ATM in a Moscow shopping mall. “I got a late start because I didn’t think this was possible. I’m in shock.”
The U.S. and the European Union this weekend agreed to kick some Russian banks off the SWIFT financial messaging system and freeze the central bank’s reserves as they reacted with horror to the violence of Vladimir Putin’s attack on Ukraine. Most of Europe has closed its airspace to Russian carriers, which could make it difficult to physically transport cash into the country.
Putin is facing the harshest sanctions leveled at a major economy in at least a generation, and some of the pain may be seen when markets open Monday. As recently as Friday, some Biden administration officials privately said that they weren’t seriously considering acting against SWIFT, but momentum built to act as details of the scale of the invasion became clear.
There are indications that the ruble could fall sharply when trading opens on Monday. Exchange rates being offered by lenders are already varying widely on Sunday, from 98.08 rubles per dollar at Alfa Bank to 99.49 at Sberbank PJSC, 105 at VTB Group and 115 at Otkritie Bank at 3:30 p.m. in Moscow. The spot ruble price on the Moscow Exchange closed at 83 per dollar on Friday.
“I can’t see a scenario where it doesn’t get hammered,” said Paul McNamara, a fund manager at GAM Investments. “I don’t expect effective intervention in terms of pricing, but in terms of reducing legal grounds to sell rubles.”
The central bank said last week it was increasing supplies of cash to ATMs to meet the demand and issued another statement Sunday vowing to provide banks “uninterrupted” supplies of rubles. The release made no mention of possible foreign-currency support or the sanctions.
Russia last faced a major run on cash in 2014, when plunging oil prices in the wake of western sanctions triggered a crash in the exchange rate. Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, ran through 1.3 trillion rubles ($16 billion) in a single week.
Representatives of Sberbank and VTB, state lenders that have both been targeted by sanctions, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for the Moscow Exchange declined to comment about plans for ruble trading on Monday.
“The situation is completely unstable, and sanctions and restrictions on the central bank can only get worse,” said Alexandra Suslina, a budget specialist at the Moscow-based Economic Expert Group. “There’s already a bit of a rush to take money out of ATMs, but no cash machine is designed for the lines that will appear at sanctioned banks.”
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On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it.
I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants.
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On February 27 2022 22:57 farvacola wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 22:53 KobraKay wrote:On February 27 2022 22:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
If these number are even close to accurate then can't think for a second it will be easy to hide domestically.
apologies for my ignorance regarding military and real world warfare tacticts, but if those numbers are accurate, even accounting for defenders advantage preparation wise, it seems Ukraine is a very strong country military wise, which is something i wasnt expecting. so to my untrained eye, either the casualties on the ukrainian side are even more massive, or there must be some non disclosed "help" doing some magic, no? or these are the sort of numbers to be expected in such an invasion? With the caveat that I am by no means an expert in contemporary military analysis, those numbers being even ball-park accurate suggests to me that there is no technological means of easily addressing the advantage that spirited defenders have in the face of an invasion. Lord knows the US has seen that very thing play out before. I think the main 'issue' is that Russia did not start this war in the 'typical' 21st century manner. There was no systematic dismantling of resistance through missile and airstrikes before starting the actual invasion. No establishing of complete air dominance, as seen by the Ukrainian air force still being operational yesterday.
So the Ukraine army is able to mount actual resistance, further aided by modern western weapons they received.
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On February 28 2022 00:21 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 22:57 farvacola wrote:On February 27 2022 22:53 KobraKay wrote:apologies for my ignorance regarding military and real world warfare tacticts, but if those numbers are accurate, even accounting for defenders advantage preparation wise, it seems Ukraine is a very strong country military wise, which is something i wasnt expecting. so to my untrained eye, either the casualties on the ukrainian side are even more massive, or there must be some non disclosed "help" doing some magic, no? or these are the sort of numbers to be expected in such an invasion? With the caveat that I am by no means an expert in contemporary military analysis, those numbers being even ball-park accurate suggests to me that there is no technological means of easily addressing the advantage that spirited defenders have in the face of an invasion. Lord knows the US has seen that very thing play out before. I think the main 'issue' is that Russia did not start this war in the 'typical' 21st century manner. There was no systematic dismantling of resistance through missile and airstrikes before starting the actual invasion. No establishing of complete air dominance, as seen by the Ukrainian air force still being operational yesterday. So the Ukraine army is able to mount actual resistance, further aided by modern western weapons they received.
Wouldn't this have caused civilian casualties? My knowledge of military is limited, but I somehow doubt they planned to lose. That or they severely underestimated Ukrainian people's resolve to fight.
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On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants.
Oh please, Biden and his administration was calling out Russia's invasion for weeks and told the world to prepare and was mocked or doubted roundly for it. There's no way you can organize sanctions as massive as this without U.S heft and executive decisions. Obviously the bulk of the resistance falls on Ukraine and the world needs to send more aid, but believing that Biden has been doing nothing but crap his pants is ridiculous.
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On February 28 2022 00:29 PhoenixVoid wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants. Oh please, Biden and his administration was calling out Russia's invasion for weeks and told the world to prepare and was mocked or doubted roundly for it. There's no way you can organize sanctions as massive as this without U.S heft and executive decisions. Obviously the bulk of the resistance falls on Ukraine and the world needs to send more aid, but believing that Biden has been doing nothing but crap his pants is ridiculous.
For background, Jerubaal’s post was ripped almost word for word from numerous speeches being given at CPAC these past few days.
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On February 27 2022 23:36 Excludos wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 23:06 Sermokala wrote:
Russia hasn't been able to have a modern generation tank and fighter go into production yet and it's been suggested that they are not sending in the bleeding edge equipment they do have.
Mark that with the widespread proliferation of modern NATO man portable missiles that were designed for the specific scenario and this specific line of tanks and aircraft. Russia is not following the doctrines of the soviet union or what the united States showed was so successful in Iraq. Not sure if you'd consider T-90 as bleeding edge, but it's definitively they're newer gear. They've been spotted in Ukraine now. I don't think Putin was ever holding back, they just don't have a lot of the gear they prance around with during parades to actually lose. 90% of the Russian military has been down prioritized and dilapidated
They were supposed to have t-14 armatas by now but they're still just upgrading the t-72 that has been around for decades and using a lot more of the elder varients than expected idk.
Maybe they really don't have the number of tanks they claimed to have or we're just not seeing them die as much.
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A video with some background information I havent heard about before:
+ Show Spoiler +
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Uh, what? Weren't the preconditions about the meeting that nothing would be launched etc. The meeting is apparently going on now?
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United States42008 Posts
On February 28 2022 00:16 Jerubaal wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 23:32 PhoenixVoid wrote:
I wonder if Putin horribly miscalculated how fractured the Western alliance was after Trump's attempts to tear up NATO, Brexit, COVID, and the U.S. appearing incredibly divided. He may have believed that the response would have been muted or sluggish because the West would either have no appetite to aid Ukraine or be in complete disarray. But Biden's in office, the UK isn't retreating from world affairs, the EU's resolve against Russia is utterly reinvigorated, and the global community is either condemning Russia, providing help to Ukraine, or staying neutral.
Putin may have just been the best thing ever for the West in a long time, and I can't imagine people like Xi are too happy about it. I guess if that's what you have to believe to maintain your view of reality. It's been the neighboring states that have aided Ukraine. And the praise belongs to the Ukrainians. The aid from the "West" has been laughable. If there's one "silver lining", as JimmiC says, it's that maybe the other NATO states will remember they have to actually do something besides spend the U.S.'s money. And the vegetable in chief hasn't done crap besides what's in his pants.
The US (and Britain) has been giving Ukraine javelins for as long as Russia was mobilized. There’s a reason that Russian armoured vehicles aren’t getting anywhere. The intelligence sharing is also a big deal.
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United States42008 Posts
On February 28 2022 00:31 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 23:36 Excludos wrote:On February 27 2022 23:06 Sermokala wrote:
Russia hasn't been able to have a modern generation tank and fighter go into production yet and it's been suggested that they are not sending in the bleeding edge equipment they do have.
Mark that with the widespread proliferation of modern NATO man portable missiles that were designed for the specific scenario and this specific line of tanks and aircraft. Russia is not following the doctrines of the soviet union or what the united States showed was so successful in Iraq. Not sure if you'd consider T-90 as bleeding edge, but it's definitively they're newer gear. They've been spotted in Ukraine now. I don't think Putin was ever holding back, they just don't have a lot of the gear they prance around with during parades to actually lose. 90% of the Russian military has been down prioritized and dilapidated They were supposed to have t-14 armatas by now but they're still just upgrading the t-72 that has been around for decades and using a lot more of the elder varients than expected idk. Maybe they really don't have the number of tanks they claimed to have or we're just not seeing them die as much.
Probably hard to invest too much in anything when you’re running a mafia state built on extortion and personal enrichment.
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Zurich15313 Posts
On February 28 2022 00:09 Biff The Understudy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 27 2022 23:48 KlaCkoN wrote:On February 27 2022 23:04 Sadist wrote:
If Russia and Ukraine were to negotiate a ceasefire or a peace treaty how long do you think the sanctions remain in place? Id assume a portion of them remain no matter what but id think the heaviest sanctions would go away fairly quickly
I mean I hope they would all go away pretty quickly. One of the main point of the sanctions as I see it is to make him stop attacking. If the attack stops and the sanctions dont go away there is no incentive for him to negotiate. The contentious point here I guess will be the status of the Crimea. In my opinion the Ukraine should (if given the option) be forced to give it up in return for peace and no sanctions. But we will see what happens, as of right now it seems more likely that Putin will turn all of Ukraine into Grozny rather than retreat Putin is a dictator, but it doesn’t mean public opinion is irrelevant or anything. The war is already unpopular and with the body count mounting will become unsustainable. The most bizarre aspect of the war is how badly prepared it has been. No one with half a functioning brain can see it as anything else than an unprovocked invasion, and Putin did a horrible job at preparing or justifying it. Even Napoleon and Hitler had better casus bellis than that when they were invading places.
The Western, specifically US intelligence had a large part in this. They called every move of Moscow's weeks before.
For all their terrible track record in recent decades, the US IC were dead on the money this time.
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I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
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On February 28 2022 00:29 SC-Shield wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:21 Gorsameth wrote:On February 27 2022 22:57 farvacola wrote:On February 27 2022 22:53 KobraKay wrote:apologies for my ignorance regarding military and real world warfare tacticts, but if those numbers are accurate, even accounting for defenders advantage preparation wise, it seems Ukraine is a very strong country military wise, which is something i wasnt expecting. so to my untrained eye, either the casualties on the ukrainian side are even more massive, or there must be some non disclosed "help" doing some magic, no? or these are the sort of numbers to be expected in such an invasion? With the caveat that I am by no means an expert in contemporary military analysis, those numbers being even ball-park accurate suggests to me that there is no technological means of easily addressing the advantage that spirited defenders have in the face of an invasion. Lord knows the US has seen that very thing play out before. I think the main 'issue' is that Russia did not start this war in the 'typical' 21st century manner. There was no systematic dismantling of resistance through missile and airstrikes before starting the actual invasion. No establishing of complete air dominance, as seen by the Ukrainian air force still being operational yesterday. So the Ukraine army is able to mount actual resistance, further aided by modern western weapons they received. Wouldn't this have caused civilian casualties? My knowledge of military is limited, but I somehow doubt they planned to lose. That or they severely underestimated Ukrainian people's resolve to fight.
They vastly underestimated their will to fight and their ability to mobilize militia units.
What they're describing is what the us did in Iraq. The us spent 20 days manovering and encircling because they didn't want to touch Baghdad even with all their advantages. The fights they did accept or were forced into where we'll away from the urban centers Russia is bleeding itself against in karkiv and Kyiv. The expected move would have been to ignore the cities and cut them off from the civilians being able to leave and supplies from being able to enter.
This might be because they really don't have the buildup to cover that much space and that doing what they need to win strategically means that practically they will be cut off from any supplies and support. Storming urban centers that have raised militia and prepared defenses is the only choice to them anymore.
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On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
The west has been very quick to allow dictators to leave and accept exile in another state.
He has no sons but a daughter. If he is allowed to be exiled to China or Iran and she is allowed to inherit his wealth I would believe that would be accepted.
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On February 28 2022 00:45 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
The west has been very quick to allow dictators to leave and accept exile in another state. He has no sons but a daughter. If he is allowed to be exiled to China or Iran and she is allowed to inherit his wealth I would believe that would be accepted.
For that the fighting would have to happen in Moscow, not in Kyiv
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@Phoenix Void I don't even know what this means. Germany and the UK need the US to hand hold them? None of the actions they've taken are particularly imaginitive. Oh and, as much as you'd like it, I'm not saying one way or the other whether the actions of the PotUS could have done anything better or whether he deserves blame or praise. What I'm saying is that your whole characterization that this is some unifying moment that shows our division is not as great is wrongheaded. It precisely showed that there was no coherent plan or unified front until Russia took drastic action. I don't think we should tell Germany or Russia what they should do with their gas, but a week ago the fears about Germany being shaky because of their desire for Russian gas seemed awfully concerning.
@Farvacola There's two possibilities: 1. You didn't watch CPAC so are talking out of your ass 2. You watched CPAC. Both are kind of embarassing. But you also think we're still fighting Nazis, so...
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On February 28 2022 00:41 Longshank wrote:
I think it's important that Putin is given an out or this will turn into another drawn out Syria. Or escalate to really scary stuff. I don't think he will ever be able to admit defeat. The only possible solution I can see right now is that the eastern separist regions are given independence/joins Russia after a certain time. Ukraine on the other hand would be free to join Nato/EU. With the right propaganda I believe he'd be able to sell that as a win domestically. Ukraine on the other hand hasn't been in control of those regions for a decade. Their future was uncertain even before this invasion. Joining Nato would give them long-term security they desperately need/want.
It wouldn't be fair or just but it's impossible to see a happy end to rhis.
I don't know about this because it seems fairly clear that things are worse and worse for Putin the longer this takes. I think he realizes that he doesn't benefit from drawing this out.
His only good outcome was winning extremely fast. Winning slowly or losing slowly are both terrible for him.
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EPT
