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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. |
On February 24 2022 15:20 TheLordofAwesome wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2022 15:15 maybenexttime wrote:On February 24 2022 15:07 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
Are you kidding me? USA declares war on Russia, the world ends in a nuclear holocaust. Worst case scenario right there, including for everyone in Ukraine Then don't declare war. Send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine and beat back any invading forces. Impose air superiority on Ukraine's behalf. If Putin is not a madman, it won't escalate into a nuclear war. If he is, it'll spiral into WW3 eventually. Let's not repeat the same mistake we made before WW2. Putin's not a madman. He wants to restore the Russian Empire. He made that very clear in his hourlong history speech a day or two ago. His diatribe was full of historical revisionism and conspiracy theories. Oh so if you don't call it war, it isn't one. Putin didn't declare war on Ukraine this morning. He's sending peacekeepers there right now. How do you impose air superiority on Ukraine's behalf? By killing the Russian Air Force with the US Air Force. Only way to do it. That's war, plain and simple. That war ends with nuclear missiles obliterating human life as we know it. Putin's speech contained lots of historical revisionism. Doesn't make him insane. Lots of Russian nationalists think the way he does. If Putin wants to 'restore' Russia then this is not going to end with Ukraine. Sanctions, short of those designed to completely destroy Russia's economy and render it unable to finance a war, will not work. It will take military force.
Putin probably doesn't want a war with NATO but he can rely on the fact that the West is to war averse to actually pull the trigger.
MAD only works if both sides are willing to end the world.
The parallels to Europe desperately trying to avoid having to go to war with Hitler are through the roof.
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On February 24 2022 19:26 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2022 15:20 TheLordofAwesome wrote:On February 24 2022 15:15 maybenexttime wrote:On February 24 2022 15:07 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
Are you kidding me? USA declares war on Russia, the world ends in a nuclear holocaust. Worst case scenario right there, including for everyone in Ukraine Then don't declare war. Send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine and beat back any invading forces. Impose air superiority on Ukraine's behalf. If Putin is not a madman, it won't escalate into a nuclear war. If he is, it'll spiral into WW3 eventually. Let's not repeat the same mistake we made before WW2. Putin's not a madman. He wants to restore the Russian Empire. He made that very clear in his hourlong history speech a day or two ago. His diatribe was full of historical revisionism and conspiracy theories. Oh so if you don't call it war, it isn't one. Putin didn't declare war on Ukraine this morning. He's sending peacekeepers there right now. How do you impose air superiority on Ukraine's behalf? By killing the Russian Air Force with the US Air Force. Only way to do it. That's war, plain and simple. That war ends with nuclear missiles obliterating human life as we know it. Putin's speech contained lots of historical revisionism. Doesn't make him insane. Lots of Russian nationalists think the way he does. If Putin wants to 'restore' Russia then this is not going to end with Ukraine. Sanctions, short of those designed to completely destroy Russia's economy and render it unable to finance a war, will not work. It will take military force. Putin probably doesn't want a war with NATO but he can rely on the fact that the West is to war averse to actually pull the trigger. MAD only works if both sides are willing to end the world. The parallels to Europe desperately trying to avoid having to go to war with Hitler are through the roof.
Unless you genuinely think Putin is going to try to take over the whole of Europe you can stop right there.
NATO didn't exist in WW2.
The best NATO can do right now is send a shitload of forces to every NATO country in the area immediately and create a situation for Putin to fear.
Crippling sanctions would help too, like everything all at once instead of trying to leave room for more sanctions later.
Obviously Ukraine is being sacrificed to avoid war, which fucking sucks.
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Every non nuclear equipped country should feel incredibly vulnerable right now. This is further evidence MAD is the only mechanism for modern peace.
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On February 24 2022 19:12 Silvanel wrote:
You really want to read news from the agressor? To avoid bias? Are You nuts? Thats going to be nothing but blantant propaganda.
I want to know how this attack is sold to the Russian people. I'm definitely not saying I'm taking it as the truth. Plus, I think the Western news is also propaganda (although less so). The truth is probably somewhere in the gap between the 2.
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Fuck.
This is just sickening. My heart goes out to the Ukrainian people.
Any sanctioning short of completely cutting Russia off from the world here is not enough. No trade. No travel. No banking. Shitall.
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Northern Ireland25071 Posts
Aside from ye olde former vassal state and bitpart resurrection of the USSR, what do Russia gain here tangibly?
Does annexing Ukraine give a big boost in material terms? Especially enough to offset potential sanctions?
I’m genuinely ignorant on this front, but in my defence I really haven’t seen this discussed much well, anywhere.
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On February 24 2022 19:59 WombaT wrote:
Aside from ye olde former vassal state and bitpart resurrection of the USSR, what do Russia gain here tangibly?
Does annexing Ukraine give a big boost in material terms? Especially enough to offset potential sanctions?
I’m genuinely ignorant on this front, but in my defence I really haven’t seen this discussed much well, anywhere.
I don't think Putin is concerned about Russia. I think he's on his way out in the next decade and is looking to bolster his personal legacy. That's what is so dangerous, because it makes sanctions ineffective. He just doesn't care.
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On February 24 2022 19:35 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2022 19:26 Gorsameth wrote:On February 24 2022 15:20 TheLordofAwesome wrote:On February 24 2022 15:15 maybenexttime wrote:On February 24 2022 15:07 TheLordofAwesome wrote:
Are you kidding me? USA declares war on Russia, the world ends in a nuclear holocaust. Worst case scenario right there, including for everyone in Ukraine Then don't declare war. Send peacekeeping troops into Ukraine and beat back any invading forces. Impose air superiority on Ukraine's behalf. If Putin is not a madman, it won't escalate into a nuclear war. If he is, it'll spiral into WW3 eventually. Let's not repeat the same mistake we made before WW2. Putin's not a madman. He wants to restore the Russian Empire. He made that very clear in his hourlong history speech a day or two ago. His diatribe was full of historical revisionism and conspiracy theories. Oh so if you don't call it war, it isn't one. Putin didn't declare war on Ukraine this morning. He's sending peacekeepers there right now. How do you impose air superiority on Ukraine's behalf? By killing the Russian Air Force with the US Air Force. Only way to do it. That's war, plain and simple. That war ends with nuclear missiles obliterating human life as we know it. Putin's speech contained lots of historical revisionism. Doesn't make him insane. Lots of Russian nationalists think the way he does. If Putin wants to 'restore' Russia then this is not going to end with Ukraine. Sanctions, short of those designed to completely destroy Russia's economy and render it unable to finance a war, will not work. It will take military force. Putin probably doesn't want a war with NATO but he can rely on the fact that the West is to war averse to actually pull the trigger. MAD only works if both sides are willing to end the world. The parallels to Europe desperately trying to avoid having to go to war with Hitler are through the roof. Unless you genuinely think Putin is going to try to take over the whole of Europe you can stop right there. NATO didn't exist in WW2. The best NATO can do right now is send a shitload of forces to every NATO country in the area immediately and create a situation for Putin to fear. Crippling sanctions would help too, like everything all at once instead of trying to leave room for more sanctions later. Obviously Ukraine is being sacrificed to avoid war, which fucking sucks. A new 'Donbas' in Latvia. Army responds to restore order, Russia invaded to 'protect' the Russian population. Does NATO engage in direct military action against the invading forces and do any NATO forces stationed there have orders to shoot Russian soldiers or are they to avoid conflict?
Because right now I'm not convinced Europe is willing to pull that trigger.
And yes, if we are to sacrifice Ukraine then anything short of a complete isolation of Russia, both economically and financially, is not good enough. Yes it means we shoot ourselves in the foot and our way of life in the west will suffer. Such is the price of peace in Europe. If we're not even willing to put another blanket on the bed to save gas, what hope do we have of convincing Russia to stop?
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Putin is pulling a Germany with the justification.
Fuck it is super scary.
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Scary thing is, Moldova is probably next, I heard they already announced Russian ”peacekeeping” mission in the Transnistria region, where a lot of ethnic russians live.
Cant confirm it with source
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On February 24 2022 19:59 WombaT wrote:
Aside from ye olde former vassal state and bitpart resurrection of the USSR, what do Russia gain here tangibly?
Does annexing Ukraine give a big boost in material terms? Especially enough to offset potential sanctions?
I’m genuinely ignorant on this front, but in my defence I really haven’t seen this discussed much well, anywhere.
the geopolitical aspect is not wanting NATO on an open land border, but in his recent one hour speech, and his lengthy piece last year it's quite clear that he has developed a racialized worldview that views both Belarus as well as Ukraine as fundamentally Russian and one people. It's actually surprising how on the sidelines geopolitics or power is compared to his focus on ancestry.
This isn't the resurrection of the USSR, in fact he was outright mocking Zelensky in his speech when he pointed out that Lenin was the one who created Ukraine
"Now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, this quite suits us. But you must not stop halfway. We are ready to show you what genuine de-communization means for Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation over the situation in Ukraine’s southeast.
The modern Ukraine was entirely created by Communist Russia, Russian President said. "The modern Ukraine was entirely and completely created by Russia, or rather, the Bolshevik, Communist Russia," the head of state said.
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I worry about Putins use of the word Martyrs regarding nuclear conflict a few years ago. Also, not sure if its just an appearance or a comtrol thing or worse but I thought he was big on the orthodox church. I hope hes not losing it and becomes an idealogue.
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For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine interest Russia so much ? “
Copied from another site. (Original Source Unknown)
It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.
Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).
Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world.
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On February 24 2022 21:32 Rowa wrote:+ Show Spoiler +For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine interest Russia so much ? “
Copied from another site. (Original Source Unknown)
It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.
Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons) Ukraine is an important agricultural country: + Show Spoiler +1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons). Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world.
I'd like to add, that there are countries in the middle east, like Lebanon that rely on their agricultural products. People there will starve over this. Also the reason you cannot just close the Bosporus, it would trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.
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Northern Ireland25071 Posts
On February 24 2022 21:32 Rowa wrote:
For those who ask: “Why does Ukraine interest Russia so much ? “
Copied from another site. (Original Source Unknown)
It is the second largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population
of over 40 million - more than Poland.
Ukraine ranks:
1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world's reserves);
2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)
Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world's volume);
1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
5th largest rye producer in the world;
5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
8th place in the world in wheat exports;
9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine is an important industrialised country:
1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe's 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
3rd largest iron exporter in the world
4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
4th world's largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
4th place in the world in clay exports
4th place in the world in titanium exports
8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
9th place in the world in exports of defence industry products;
10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).
Ukraine matters. That is why its independence is important to the rest of the world.
Thanks for the repost, I’d asked earlier what the material benefits of annexing the Ukraine might be and that’s rather useful information
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That's the thing about brinksmanship: you don't have to follow through with your threat, you just have to look crazy enough to do it, and if everyone believes he's crazy enough to do it, the only responsible course of action is to accept his demands and move on with life.
The thing is, is he really crazy enough to do it? I don't believe it for a second, but then again I'm an ocean away on the other side of the equator.
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I think hes crazy enough to do it, but I also view the current state of the world as fairly turbulent and full of insanity, so thats definitely coloring my anxiety over the prospects of this situation.
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I don’t understand how so many countries have the balls to say “we stand with you” without a single ounce of direct military support
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On February 24 2022 21:53 Mohdoo wrote:
I don’t understand how so many countries have the balls to say “we stand with you” without a single ounce of direct military support
I think there is really no viable/promising way of military support without US intervention. Unless you think slightly prolonged but ultimately futile resistance accompanied by more death and destruction is a desirable outcome.
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EPT
