Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
The problem in Germany is that the government is not interested in conflict with the car industry lobby.
So in the end, the people who got cheated by the auto industry will be stuck with the result. Apparently there is a very handwavy deal where the automobile industry promise to give some of those people some rebates when they buy a new car. Instead of, for example, forcing the industry to pay for the fixes necessary to make those cars fit the lies. Or taking the cars back, and returning the money they cheated out of people. The government has ways to force the car industry to a deal, they could legally enforce up to 5000€ of fees for each car the industry cheated on. But they just don't do that.
Still, i am in general in favor of stuff that hastens the end of the petrol-fueled car. (Granted, i also don't drive a car) I think cities would be a lot nicer without all those cars everywhere. And i'd love it if i had half the infrastructure for my bike that car drivers have for their cars.
The thing is emission limits on diesel are already bordeline physically impossible. The engine design is pushed so much that no amount of money is going to help. Thats the thing bureaucrats and layman seem to not get. They are cheating no to save money but to get past emmision mark so they can sell diesel cars. Thats a significant difference. If You belive there is some amount of money that will make Diesel car free of NOx emission then You are just delusional. In EU every company that is making diesel cars is cheating in some way, there are just those caught and not caught yet.
I know many who belive that current limits are already well beyond reasonable, but thats another discussion altoghter.
On November 17 2018 07:02 Silvanel wrote: The thing is emission limits on diesel are already bordeline physically impossible. The engine design is pushed so much that no amount of money is going to help. Thats the thing bureaucrats and layman seem to not get. They are cheating no to save money but to get past emmision mark so they can sell diesel cars. Thats a significant difference. If You belive there is some amount of money that will make Diesel car free of NOx emission then You are just delusional. In EU every company that is making diesel cars is cheating in some way, there are just those caught and not caught yet.
I know many who belive that current limits are already well beyond reasonable, but thats another discussion altoghter.
from what I've heard the VW diesel scandal basicly boiled down to them not wanting to use more Adblue than needed because that would alienate potential buyers by basicly creating another kind of thing they have to refill and look after, no?
Either way, you have to do something about the air quality in our cities if it's turning so bad that judges literally force cities to ban cars by now.
so I did. Just linking it here because I thought it's actually a pretty good explanation of the basics of this proposed deal in just 10 minutes. So perhaps for the guys from the US reading in here or just generally people who don't read up too much on it it might be worth a watch.
I know that TL doesn't like propaganda youtube videos and stuff like that but like I said, I think this actually does a pretty good job of explaining things without going in too much detail or leaving too much out while also refraining from taking sides or batshitcrazy conspiracy theories.
In France, the gilets jaunes [yellow jackets] are coming. Since the end of October, a grassroots movement of protest against the rise of diesel/fuel taxes has been growing on the Internet. It initially came from a petition asking for the cancel of those tax rises, which got 800 000 signatures, and a call to “block France” the 17/11; a few videos went viral on Facebook, like the one from a random 50 years old woman who criticized all measures Macron's government had taken against car drivers. That one was seen more than 5 millions of times. People who felt in line with this movement of protest use the yellow safety jacket from their car as a sign of reconnaissance.
Medias have been reporting a lot on this movement, because it spread fast but also because it was created online with no structures: neither parties nor trade unions nor associations were behind it. Since one of the viral videos was made by a far-right guy, the government jumped on this to say that this movement was “driven/manipulated by the far-right” but it's globally untrue (though it can be locally the case). The movement claims to be “apolitical”, or rather non-partisan. It was launched by random citizens who're mad at Macron's taxes. Any attempt to politically “hijack” it was denounced.
Tomorrow we'll see if this online contest gets real on the roads. Initially the cause was the price of fuel/diesel (which rose because of two separate factors, (1) the rise of the price of crude oil and (2) the government increasing taxes) but it seems to be growing into a larger anti-Macron movement, fueled (!) by fiscal injustice. Indeed this tax rise hits the hardest those who are already in difficulty, i.e. people with low wages/incomes who are forced to use their car to go to work, shopping, etc. in rural or peri-urban areas. The government claims that this tax rise is necessary for ecology, but only ~20% of the 4 billions of tax rise will be spent on ecological transition. Plus outside big towns, most people are forced to take their car in their daily lives, so they cannot diminish the consumption even if the price rises. Despite the government's claims, pretty much everyone understood that ecology was just a pretext there (the government refused to end fiscal exemptions on the fuel used by planes, boats and trucks…); in reality ordinary people have to compensate the tax cuts on the wealthiest and companies.
According to polls, around 70% of the French people support or have sympathy for the movement. From one end to another of the political spectrum, most opposition parties have expressed sympathy or support, even if no formal call was made to respect the “citizen” aspect of the 17/11 day. Trade unions, on the contrary, stayed away from it since it bypasses them; plus whenever the far-right goes, they claim it's polluted and thus retreat (apparently they're too dumb to go in with their own proposals…).
The government is scared by the movement, because it's a widespread tax revolt, it has no leader, it's decentralized and thus they have no interlocutor; they fear possible security issues, violences, and a globally uncontrollable movement). The executive made announcements earlier this week (both Macron and the Prime minister spoke on Wednesday) in order to defuse the 17/11, promising 500 millions of help to convert the old cars into new ones, replace oil-fired boilers, etc. But the tax rise is 4 billions, so for 8 euros taken, the government only gives back 1. Plus the poorest people cannot use a 4 000€ aid to buy a 20 000€ car, they don't have the rest and the bank will not lend them the money; so the announcements were deemed insufficient and the contest goes on.
According to the minister of Interior, there might be actions in up to 1 500 different spots across France. To compare, the biggest union demonstrations gather 250 processions. Of course there should be less people involved tomorrow, but the movement does seem really widespread, in particular in smaller, rural towns in which usually nothing ever happens politically on the streets. There is also a clear class component in the movement, according to polls the lower classes support it much more than the higher classes. So this protest can be the place where ordinary and usually invisible people living away from big cities gather to express their anger at Macron's policy. Politically very explosive when Macron is already seen as arrogant, the president of the riches and someone who only cares about the upper classes living in big cities.
All of this comes as Macron is politically weak, and he's still going down. Since September his approval rating entered the fatal “below 30%” threshold, so he's being more and more reduced to his first round core (16-18% of registered voters in the presidential and législatives).
Macron's approval rating, average of several monthly polls
He has already been forced to delay his pension reform (aimed at lowering them of course) so that he would not lose too hard the European elections. Obviously a successful social movement before May 2019 would be his political grave.
Could be a new failure of the social contest, could be the start of something bigger. Many unknowns, many contradictions, but one thing is sure: the anger is real. Answer tomorrow.
Outcome of the protest day, according to the Minister of Interior:
- Up to 282 000 demonstrators at peak - Actions happened across more than 2 000 locations - 1 dead and 227 wounded (6 severely)
Surrounded by protestors, a car driver apparently panicked, accelerated in the crowd and killed a 63 years old woman this morning. Sadly there are always dumb people who try to force blockages…
The 282 000 figure—most likely underestimated—is fairly impressive given the lack of structure and the “spontaneous” aspect of the movement. Recently the biggest national demonstrations called by trade unions reached something like 300 000 people, and most days of action gathered less people.
In Paris, a few hundreds of protestors tried to march on l'Élysée, chanting “Macron ! Démission !” [Macron, resign!] They were blocked by cops a few meters away from l'Élysée and kept singing there.
As expected, the price of fuel was only the spark which ignited the fire. The movement protested against something larger, basically people are mad at the expensive cost of life, criticize taxes, social injustice and Macron's policy. Sometimes, there are also insurrectional accents. Just like Sarkozy, Macron committed political suicide when his first action was to urgently give tax cuts to billionaires. No one wants to pay extra taxes when the rich feast.
Symbol of the 1789 revolution: the people carrying on its back the clergy and nobles
This was the first demonstration for a lot of people there, so we're out of the traditional sociology of left-wingers and unionists (something very dangerous for the government, because this means that they awoke people who're usually dormant). In newspapers, demonstrators interviewed were often people with modest salaries, between the minimum and the average wage. Mostly working class, but some independent too, and pensioners as well. A lot of precarity, financial difficulties each month. Ideologically heterogeneous; most people there were probably not strongly politicized.
Since there is no centralized and national structure for the movement, impossible to tell what's coming next. The executive made no particular comment, except that no extra measure would be announced. Some gilets jaunes will keep blocking this night and tomorrow (about 200 locations are still blocked as of now).
If union bureaucracies had any brain, they would call for strikes and Macron would be toast in the week. Luckily they're busy chasing far-right ghosts while anyone with good faith can see that this story of a global far-right manipulation/movement was a cheap scarecrow. I find it really pathetic how trade unions—at least at the top—missed this train. “What I can't control doesn't exist!” Hopefully the base makes them understand that something needs to be done… It's been 12 years that unions didn't win any national battle against a government. Here we have crystal clear class struggle, and trade unions are looking at it with immense suspicion, as if a crime of lèse-majesté had been committed against them... “How those peasants dare to self-organize without us?!”
I think that this day will have ample repercussion for politics in France. First the event went “deep” and happened a bit everywhere in the country, it was not only located in big cities. Second this should be a time of awareness and fast politicisation for people who were usually away from politics. In particular they will see live the massive distorting mirror of media propaganda, and will have to go through the same trials as unionists and left-wingers: being portrayed as emotional, irrational, childish, violent savages, "populist," etc. The opening of TV news was 10 minutes of images of violence and tensions while there were no problems in the vast majority of the spots. And I found the medias were very soft compared with how they usually portray social movements...
How are there 200 wounded, did the police intervene? And if so, why? I heard talk about tear gas in the radio but they wouldn't say the reason, as if it was just usual that protests get broken up...
On November 18 2018 20:04 schaf wrote: How are there 200 wounded, did the police intervene? And if so, why? I heard talk about tear gas in the radio but they wouldn't say the reason, as if it was just usual that protests get broken up...
I know the death was because they blocked a road, and then started surrounding cars. A driver panicked and hit the gas, driving over one of the protesters. I can well imagine the police deciding that it was better to intervene than risk more stupid, dangerous crap like that.
On November 18 2018 20:04 schaf wrote: How are there 200 wounded, did the police intervene? And if so, why? I heard talk about tear gas in the radio but they wouldn't say the reason, as if it was just usual that protests get broken up...
The official "toll" today is now 400+ wounded, including 14 severely.
The police mostly intervened when clashes arose between protestors and car drivers on blockages, or to lift some blockages, or to repel demonstrators at certain places (hence tear gas). But unlike in traditional demonstrations, most wounds were probably not caused by cops; the government had likely given instructions not to go too hard on protestors. For instance if a left-wing demonstration had marched towards l'Élysée, it would have been blocked and scattered far earlier than what happened yesterday. I didn't see videos of cop violence the way I do after union or left-wing protests (or citizens protesting against imposed anti-ecological projects).
As for the reasons of those wounds... Probably of 3 causes: drivers who try to force blockages; clashes between cops and demonstrators at certain places; and clashes between demonstrators themselves (some alcohol involved sometimes...).
The movement of the yellow vests is still ongoing in various places. Sunday, 46 000 people participated in actions (figures from the Interior). Today, between 15 000 and 20 000 persons were still on the roads across 360 locations. Obviously with the return to work, the movement cannot keep its strength… so strikes will be necessary if the yellow vests want to maintain the momentum. But given the sociology of the movement, i.e. scattered, unorganized workers with modest wages and financial difficulties it's unlikely.
The Prime minister was on TV yesterday evening. I don't know why, because he had literally nothing to say. The interviewer was like, will you cancel the tax rises? Nope. Will you cancel the next scheduled tax rises in January 2019? Nope. Will you do anything particular? Nope. “We stay the course.”
Macron made it known that he would react later.
According to an Ifop poll, 81% of polled people agreed that the movement “is a more general mobilization against Macron's policy” (i.e. the problem is not only the price of fuel or taxes).
Macron's approval rating keeps falling:
He will probably reach his lowest point in the next 2 or 3 months. Like Sarkozy I don't think he can go below 20-25%, he's just too much of a poster boy for his base—unlike Hollande who had succeeded to disappoint even among the very ranks of his supporters. Anyway, the bunker syndrome for macronists will only grow from now on.
With Valls gone to campaign for Barcelona's town hall, yesterday was the first round of the legislative by-election to replace him in France. The participation was absolutely abysmal, with 82% of abstention (up from 60% in June 2017). As expected, Valls' protégé (mayor of one of the big cities in the constituency, and allied with a few other right-wing local barons) and his main left-wing opponent qualified:
The results are a bit hard to analyze. There were 22 (!) candidates and 40% participation in June 2017, 11 ones and 18% participation yesterday. Valls had scored 25% in June 2017, but with the two dissidents from the majority back then the total for the macronist bloc was 40%. There was no “centre-left” candidate in June 2017 to compete with the FI, etc. The left bloc seems stronger than last year, but it's unclear who will win the second round next week. This election is a bit considered like a national test, but is there really something tested when not even 1 voter out of 5 goes to the voting booth?
Back to the movement of protest, it's clear that the government's strategy, as usual, is to try to let it die on its own. It might succeed: there is a new call to demonstrate in Paris this Saturday (24/11) + Show Spoiler +
the same day as the international day for the elimination of violences against women, which shows some indelicacy… normally it's the 25 but in France it was advanced to the 24 this year
, but the movement is still largely lacking structures, the encephalogram of trade unions is flat as f*ck, and without strikes the pressure won't increase even if the yellow vests are now targeting more strategic locations like fuel depots. So on a short term, playing the clock, perhaps the government will hold. But this would still leave deep traces. Hollande and Valls held the movement against the labour reform, but they were politically dead after that and the PS was destroyed the year after. If Macron wins against without any concessions, those people—who already know that they are despised, ignored and silenced—would feel even more humiliated. The rancor and the rage against the government would reach dangerous levels. It would come back in a way or another later.
I don't see how Macron is going to pass his reform pension (scheduled next year) at this point. He wouldn't be able to beat even a modest union front against it; people would use this contest to make him fall. You cannot eternally govern against 75% of your people.
If one looks back, this is the fourth social movement since 2016. First there was the one against Hollande's labour bill, along with Nuit debout; then, in autumn 2017 there was the fairly aborted movement against Macron's executive orders; this spring, protests against selection at universities and the SNCF reform; and now the yellow vests. A flame smoulders beneath the soil of French society. Politically, sociologically, ideologically the macronism is incapable to understand it, and unwilling to address it. According to the Prime minister yesterday, in substance the French society is in this state because the previous gouvernments were cowards which didn't do what was necessary (the “inescapable reforms”) and moved back when people protested. But macronists are brave, they will hold, do what's necessary and tame this rebel beast known as the French people. — Or so they think.
How common is it for french presidents to tank this hard in approval ratings? I do remember Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac but I wasn't really that much into foreign politics during their times, or in Jacques Chirac's case perhaps just too young altogether. So I can only really put numbers to Hollande and Macron in my head.
So from my naive point of view this seems like business as usual for you guys but if it's really just Hollande and Macron that are disliked to that degree that would put more meaning behind it for me.
On November 20 2018 10:55 Toadesstern wrote: Just a bit of a random question for you:
How common is it for french presidents to tank this hard in approval ratings? I do remember Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac but I wasn't really that much into foreign politics during their times, or in Jacques Chirac's case perhaps just too young altogether. So I can only really put numbers to Hollande and Macron in my head.
So from my naive point of view this seems like business as usual for you guys but if it's really just Hollande and Macron that are disliked to that degree that would put more meaning behind it for me.
I would say that since Sarkozy there is a clear weakening of French presidents, who are "worn out" earlier and more than before. Macron is possibly in an even worse position than Hollande, even if his brute numbers are on average slightly better.
In 2017 the old French political system, where conservatives and "social-democrats" were dominant since respectively the 1960's and the 1980's, collapsed. Macron is the product of that crisis, but he is unable to solve it (he can't gather a majority social bloc to build a stable new order around it) and it should only grow under his term.
Heated Saturday in France. Two demonstrations were scheduled today: the annual demonstration against sexist and sexual violences done to women, and the “act two” of the movement of the “yellow vests” (see posts above).
The feminist demonstration was a success for French standards, with 50 000 people across the country (including 30 000 in Paris, about 6 times more than last year) according to organizers. #MeToo left some traces. Sadly, it was quite overshadowed by the yellow vests.
After the ~300 000 people protesting across France last week, a demonstration in Paris had been scheduled for today. The authorities denied a few locations too close to the centres of power (the Élysée, the Assemblée, ministries, etc.), but allowed a demonstration on the Champ-de-Mars, a big place near the Eiffel Tower. But the yellow vests feared a trap and did not want to go there. So instead they went back to the basics of French popular politics: barricades and riots in Paris.
The signs read: cops with us; impeach Macron, government resign, abolish the system.
According to the yellow vests, they were peacefully standing this morning on the Champs-Élysées when cops starting to throw tear gas. Tension rose, and the result was several hours of clash, water cannons, paving stones and barricades on “the world's most beautiful avenue”. If you love French street poetry, you can find several images here.
At midday the Minister of Interior blamed “far-right radical activists” for those violences and attacked Le Pen for a random pretext. The Macronie is playing a very dirty little game by trying to equate the yellow vests with the far-right. But their tricks are so crude that no one but their base believes them.
Still according to the Interior, 106 301 persons demonstrated in more than 1 600 locations today. Like me, I suppose you admire the extreme precision of the authorities, which are apparently able to count down to the very protestor for an event as widespread as this. For the next demonstration I expect no less than two figures after the decimal point.
Overseas, in la Réunion, the movement of the yellow vests turned into a larger crisis. The social situation is horrible there, like 30% unemployment (60% for the youth) and 40% poverty rate, while life is more expensive due to the need to import almost everything, etc. The yellow vests are blocking all over the island, but apparently some young people act violently, looting people, shops, etc. so in typical colonial fashion, a curfew has been declared. Many shops and publics services are closed, so the ordinary life there is suspended. Not much intel, it's too far from the mainland and journalists are not interested.
“Macron! Resign!” sounded like the most used slogan today. The rest of the demonstrations everywhere were mostly pacific, but of course medias heavily focused on the admittedly spectacular clashes in Paris.
Some journalists have been attacked by protestors, accused of “being with the government”.
Macron condemned violences. It's been announced since 2 days that he will speak next week, the 27/11. He will announce a “new course” to make the ecological transition “acceptable”. I don't know what he can say to calm the protest movement, he won't change his global policy so he'll probably stall and announce minor stuff… New taxes are coming in January. So far the government refuses to cancel them, but voices are arising within the majority to freeze or delay them. Macron can also try to use trade unions to defuse the contestation, by opening negotiations.
Anyway the conclusion of the day is that in 18 months Macron managed to trigger barricades in Paris, and on the Champs-Élyseées on top of that. Chapeau l'artiste !
Can you explain the thing behind the yellow vests? Does it represent something about the protests or is it just like a trend thats continued about the recent protests?
I suppose the 106,301th protestor was the only person at a protest which is why he stands out in particular. Maybe the authorities didn't want him to be rounded down to zero. (:
Thanks for the report. I only heard about left and right wing "extremists" causing a ruckus during the otherwise peaceful protests in German state news
On November 25 2018 12:39 Sermokala wrote: Can you explain the thing behind the yellow vests? Does it represent something about the protests or is it just like a trend thats continued about the recent protests?
I'm not sure I understand your question right. If you wonder why they use a yellow vest as a symbol, it's because it was initially used as a sign of reconnaissance for car drivers who were against the tax rise (the yellow vest is the high visibility safety vest used to be seen at night). Since then they wear it in demonstrations, and "yellow vests" is how the movement was called by mass medias.
On November 25 2018 19:05 Artisreal wrote: I suppose the 106,301th protestor was the only person at a protest which is why he stands out in particular. Maybe the authorities didn't want him to be rounded down to zero. (:
Thanks for the report. I only heard about left and right wing "extremists" causing a ruckus during the otherwise peaceful protests in German state news
They probably just added up whatever came from the counting across the country, and in some places you can indeed count down to the unit. But the result is still laughable for something that imprecise by nature. When you get 8 000 in Paris and 21 in some small town, you just don't give "8 021" as the figure lol
I was wondering if it was like a special thing to this years protest like a symbol of resistance or a color representing something.
Is it a safety thing from that one person that got killed earlier or is it just the cab drivers thing that's spread. In America we had blm become a common protest theme so I was just wondering if I should know something about the yellow vests.
Russia captured three Ukrainian naval ships, two gunships and a tugboat, that wanted to go to Mariupol trying to pass the Kerch straight. Ukraine is deliberating declaring martial law, tensions rising fast...
On November 26 2018 14:43 Mohdoo wrote: Has Russia given any reason for their attack?
Before Crimea was taken, these were shared international waters as per a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia. After taking Crimea, Russia began to dispute that and started to consider them their own waters, effectively cutting off certain Ukrainian ports. They were aggressive towards Ukrainian ships before, but have never escalated this much.
There is also a theory that the president of Ukraine wanted to provoke Russia to be able to introduce martial law to withhold the upcoming elections as his approval rating is around 20%. But this is doubtful as the Ukrainian ships used that route on numerous occasions before. There were tensions but not escalation of this level.
EPT![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsIGrPFXQAIIPB5.jpg )
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/TS8gDlj.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/usb-prd-upload/images/thumb_700xh/58ef75aa2e6f2.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://infographic.statista.com/normal/chartoftheday_13561_cote_confiance_popularite_presidents_francais_n.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsyS0fLWkAEINP9.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsxYnXKWwAA11NY.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsyuyieWkAELsiK.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsxSNEiWsAEzQFZ.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsxuDy1WsAIrKCO.jpg)
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsxVJLkWkAExxb7.jpg)
