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Netherlands6273 Posts
On November 14 2018 18:24 pmh wrote:
New figures about german economy,it shrank in last quarter. Which is somewhat worrying if you consider that the inflation in Germany is 2.5%. Is this quarter an outlier or the start of a recession in Germany?
Predictions for world gdp for coming years show quiet a bit of growth from which Germany should be able to benefit.
The main reason for trump (and America because it definitely is not only trump who is considering this point) to be against a European army is that it would go at the cost of the American defence industry. A european army would buy European and not American.
Europe has been sponsoring the usa defence industry for decades,that is the other side of the medal that trump doesn't talk about in the whole paying for nato discussion.
Growth figures are real growth so inflation is already accounted for. It's an outlier. Nothing to suggest a recession yet.
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On November 14 2018 19:47 Velr wrote:
Whats up with former french rulers trying to get their position back. Are they inspired by Game of Thrones?
They are simply extraordinarly arrogant and refuse to concede that the people no longer wants them. For Hollande, this can be explained by his own withdrawal: he can thus persuade himself that he has been unfairly treated, and history will make him justice or fairy tales like that. Had he been candidate for the PS in 2017, the ~5% score he would have made would have terminated his political life. Instead, he can claim that he courageously sacrificed himself for the greater good, blabla...
The funny thing is that Ségolène Royal (his ex-wife...), who was the PS candidate in 2007, might return too. And some say that Sarkozy has not given up either on coming back. This political generation is simply horrible, luckily the two-party system which automatically made them eligible has collapsed and won't return.
For the PS, there is also a crisis of leadership; the new secretary is still largely unknown to French people and the PS still polls between 6 and 7% in the upcoming European elections. So Hollande might try an internal putsch after the PS crashes again in May 2019.
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On November 14 2018 19:51 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2018 19:44 Acrofales wrote:@TheDwf: soon I will be able to vote for Valls. Yay or nay?  Never ever ever ever. Unless opportunistic, authoritarian politicians backed by the local oligarchy is your thing. Valls is a man of order for order, the kind of politician who would send cops to beat grandmas trying to vote on Catalunya's independence.
So, he's par for the course.
But yeah, I wasn't planning on voting for him. I find it quite hilarious that he left the French socialist party to associate with Ciutatans (center right, but mostly famous for being hardliners against Catalan independence) here in Catalunya.
I haven't looked into it too much yet (elections are only in May), but I think I'll just vote for Barcelona en Comú (Ada Colau's party). They seem to be doing a pretty decent job.
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On November 14 2018 20:20 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2018 19:51 TheDwf wrote:On November 14 2018 19:44 Acrofales wrote:@TheDwf: soon I will be able to vote for Valls. Yay or nay? Never ever ever ever. Unless opportunistic, authoritarian politicians backed by the local oligarchy is your thing. Valls is a man of order for order, the kind of politician who would send cops to beat grandmas trying to vote on Catalunya's independence. So, he's par for the course. But yeah, I wasn't planning on voting for him. I find it quite hilarious that he left the French socialist party to associate with Ciutatans (center right, but mostly famous for being hardliners against Catalan independence) here in Catalunya. I haven't looked into it too much yet (elections are only in May), but I think I'll just vote for Barcelona en Comú (Ada Colau's party). They seem to be doing a pretty decent job.
Sounds like a good choice!
Valls going with C's is not very surprising to me, that's where he is ideologically. He should have been at the right in France too. He had received only 5% in the internal vote of the PS in 2011 because he was so massively out of touch with the core of the center-left. That he ended up being Prime minister is mind-boggling.
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On November 14 2018 19:58 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On November 14 2018 18:24 pmh wrote:
New figures about german economy,it shrank in last quarter. Which is somewhat worrying if you consider that the inflation in Germany is 2.5%. Is this quarter an outlier or the start of a recession in Germany?
Predictions for world gdp for coming years show quiet a bit of growth from which Germany should be able to benefit.
The main reason for trump (and America because it definitely is not only trump who is considering this point) to be against a European army is that it would go at the cost of the American defence industry. A european army would buy European and not American.
Europe has been sponsoring the usa defence industry for decades,that is the other side of the medal that trump doesn't talk about in the whole paying for nato discussion. Growth figures are real growth so inflation is already accounted for. It's an outlier. Nothing to suggest a recession yet.
It is suggested that it is due to the automobil industry struggling. I think this is not going to become much better in the months to come with Brexit around the corner, even if "nothing" happens immidiately. But yeah, this quarterly down alone is far from a recession.
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Sarko better find a protected position if he doesnt want to finish in jail... Unlike others older politicians (that are delusional indeed) I would not be surprised that it is his plan.
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On November 14 2018 19:44 Acrofales wrote:@TheDwf: soon I will be able to vote for Valls. Yay or nay?
I mistakenly read Valls as Walls. Then I remembered Trump's advice to Spain "Build a wall in Sahara to stop immigrants"
For some reason my brain decided to stop there. I was about to ask "Wtf? Why you vote for a wall? It makes no sense"
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Draft Brexit deal ends Britain's easy access to EU financial markets
LONDON (Reuters) - The United Kingdom and the European Union have agreed a deal that will give London’s vast financial center only a basic level of access to the bloc’s markets after Brexit.
The agreement will be based on the EU’s existing system of financial market access known as equivalence - a watered-down relationship that officials in Brussels have said all along is the best arrangement that Britain can expect.
[...]
Equivalence, however, covers a more limited range of business and excludes major activities such as commercial bank lending. Law firm Hogan Lovells has estimated that equivalence rules cover just a quarter of all EU cross-border financial services business.
source: www.reuters.com
(emphasis in the quote from me)
that seems rather... bad for the UK? I know London isn't all of the UK but the UK is largely a service based industry so having that taken away can't be a good thing for them. I wonder if there's some kind of accommodation from the EU side or if they just kept saying that without being member of the EU you'll have to settle for some kind of access like all the other non-EU nations. Also wonder if that triggers more banks moving staff as soon as we get to see it in full.
So in that regard it's actually kind of surprising to me because I did think the EU would be easier on the UK even though I don't want them to be.
Just so people don't take it the wrong way: I don't want the UK to be treated worse than any other country but I def agree with it being treated similary as Switzerland, Norway or Canada respectively and them getting to choose what kind of deal they want, as long as it's similar to those and not the best of all 3 while only having the responsibilites of Canada.
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It was known from before day 1 how access to the EU market works.
The free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour are linked. You cannot get one without the other.
The UK knew it would never get free service or capital access without free labour.
Since the latter is kind of a hard line in the sand for Brexit they went in wanting a deal that was impossible and everyone told them it would be impossible.
This is no different from what Switzerland, Norway or Canada have to deal with.
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I don't really understand the Brexit minister resigning over a deal for Brexit. What was his job if not negotiating this deal?
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On November 16 2018 07:33 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
I don't really understand the Brexit minister resigning over a deal for Brexit. What was his job if not negotiating this deal?
Part of the British right seems quite deluded, and gave birth to a child it neither understands nor controls
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On November 16 2018 07:33 FueledUpAndReadyToGo wrote:
I don't really understand the Brexit minister resigning over a deal for Brexit. What was his job if not negotiating this deal? Because he thinks no deal is better long term.
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Bot edit.
User was banned for this post.
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+ Show Spoiler +
In France, the gilets jaunes [yellow jackets] are coming. Since the end of October, a grassroots movement of protest against the rise of diesel/fuel taxes has been growing on the Internet. It initially came from a petition asking for the cancel of those tax rises, which got 800 000 signatures, and a call to “block France” the 17/11; a few videos went viral on Facebook, like the one from a random 50 years old woman who criticized all measures Macron's government had taken against car drivers. That one was seen more than 5 millions of times. People who felt in line with this movement of protest use the yellow safety jacket from their car as a sign of reconnaissance.
Medias have been reporting a lot on this movement, because it spread fast but also because it was created online with no structures: neither parties nor trade unions nor associations were behind it. Since one of the viral videos was made by a far-right guy, the government jumped on this to say that this movement was “driven/manipulated by the far-right” but it's globally untrue (though it can be locally the case). The movement claims to be “apolitical”, or rather non-partisan. It was launched by random citizens who're mad at Macron's taxes. Any attempt to politically “hijack” it was denounced.
Tomorrow we'll see if this online contest gets real on the roads. Initially the cause was the price of fuel/diesel (which rose because of two separate factors, (1) the rise of the price of crude oil and (2) the government increasing taxes) but it seems to be growing into a larger anti-Macron movement, fueled (!) by fiscal injustice. Indeed this tax rise hits the hardest those who are already in difficulty, i.e. people with low wages/incomes who are forced to use their car to go to work, shopping, etc. in rural or peri-urban areas. The government claims that this tax rise is necessary for ecology, but only ~20% of the 4 billions of tax rise will be spent on ecological transition. Plus outside big towns, most people are forced to take their car in their daily lives, so they cannot diminish the consumption even if the price rises. Despite the government's claims, pretty much everyone understood that ecology was just a pretext there (the government refused to end fiscal exemptions on the fuel used by planes, boats and trucks…); in reality ordinary people have to compensate the tax cuts on the wealthiest and companies.
According to polls, around 70% of the French people support or have sympathy for the movement. From one end to another of the political spectrum, most opposition parties have expressed sympathy or support, even if no formal call was made to respect the “citizen” aspect of the 17/11 day. Trade unions, on the contrary, stayed away from it since it bypasses them; plus whenever the far-right goes, they claim it's polluted and thus retreat (apparently they're too dumb to go in with their own proposals…).
The government is scared by the movement, because it's a widespread tax revolt, it has no leader, it's decentralized and thus they have no interlocutor; they fear possible security issues, violences, and a globally uncontrollable movement). The executive made announcements earlier this week (both Macron and the Prime minister spoke on Wednesday) in order to defuse the 17/11, promising 500 millions of help to convert the old cars into new ones, replace oil-fired boilers, etc. But the tax rise is 4 billions, so for 8 euros taken, the government only gives back 1. Plus the poorest people cannot use a 4 000€ aid to buy a 20 000€ car, they don't have the rest and the bank will not lend them the money; so the announcements were deemed insufficient and the contest goes on.
According to the minister of Interior, there might be actions in up to 1 500 different spots across France. To compare, the biggest union demonstrations gather 250 processions. Of course there should be less people involved tomorrow, but the movement does seem really widespread, in particular in smaller, rural towns in which usually nothing ever happens politically on the streets. There is also a clear class component in the movement, according to polls the lower classes support it much more than the higher classes. So this protest can be the place where ordinary and usually invisible people living away from big cities gather to express their anger at Macron's policy. Politically very explosive when Macron is already seen as arrogant, the president of the riches and someone who only cares about the upper classes living in big cities.
All of this comes as Macron is politically weak, and he's still going down. Since September his approval rating entered the fatal “below 30%” threshold, so he's being more and more reduced to his first round core (16-18% of registered voters in the presidential and législatives).
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/TS8gDlj.jpg) Macron's approval rating, average of several monthly polls
He has already been forced to delay his pension reform (aimed at lowering them of course) so that he would not lose too hard the European elections. Obviously a successful social movement before May 2019 would be his political grave.
Could be a new failure of the social contest, could be the start of something bigger. Many unknowns, many contradictions, but one thing is sure: the anger is real. Answer tomorrow.
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Let me just say that I thoroughly enjoy your posts on the state of things in France, TheDwf, so please keep them coming 
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But diesel and fuel taxes are actually good, why are the French upset about this? I don't really see the economic injustice here because the collected tax money can obviously spend progressively and is returned to the economy, it isn't burned or thrown away.
The intention of these taxes is not to make anyone worse off, it's to accurately price carbon fuels.
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On November 17 2018 04:36 Nyxisto wrote:
But diesel and fuel taxes are actually good, why are the French upset about this? I don't really see the economic injustice here because the collected tax money can obviously spend progressively and is returned to the economy, it isn't burned or thrown away.
The intention of these taxes is not to make anyone worse off, it's to accurately price carbon fuels.
Consumer taxes hit the bottom much harder than the top. It hits in particular those, that need their cars to get to work in rural regions.
Macron lowing the taxes on high incomes, high wealth and enterprises while rising consumer taxes is quite obviously a transfer of the tax burden from the top to the bottom.
And that tax money "could" be spent in a way to make up for that is not an argument when it just doesn't happen, it is rather quite the opposite in case of Macron as far as I gather.
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On November 17 2018 04:05 farvacola wrote:Let me just say that I thoroughly enjoy your posts on the state of things in France, TheDwf, so please keep them coming
Thanks.
On November 17 2018 04:36 Nyxisto wrote:
But diesel and fuel taxes are actually good, why are the French upset about this? I don't really see the economic injustice here because the collected tax money can obviously spend progressively and is returned to the economy, it isn't burned or thrown away.
The intention of these taxes is not to make anyone worse off, it's to accurately price carbon fuels.
During decades, the French State encouraged diesel, so the most modest bought it because it was cheaper. Now taxes rise, and those same people are stuck with their old diesel car; the capital cost to change it is too high for their budgets, and they have no alternative because they live in rural areas with no public transit. In short, they're f*cked.
+ Show Spoiler +![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsESxEXWoAA9YHQ.jpg) From the poorest to the richest decile, % spent on fuel
Meanwhile, Macron gives billions and billions of tax cuts to the wealthiest and companies; he refuses to end the fiscal exemptions on kérosène & the fuel used by boats or trucks (which would be about the same amount of money collected); and small train lines in rural areas are closed because they're not profitable.
The result is that he's effectively redistributing backwards. If he cared about ecology, he would tax the biggest polluters. Macron is basically greenwashing fiscal injustice.
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On November 17 2018 05:31 TheDwf wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2018 04:05 farvacola wrote:Let me just say that I thoroughly enjoy your posts on the state of things in France, TheDwf, so please keep them coming Thanks. Show nested quote +On November 17 2018 04:36 Nyxisto wrote:
But diesel and fuel taxes are actually good, why are the French upset about this? I don't really see the economic injustice here because the collected tax money can obviously spend progressively and is returned to the economy, it isn't burned or thrown away.
The intention of these taxes is not to make anyone worse off, it's to accurately price carbon fuels. During decades, the French State encouraged diesel, so the most modest bought it because it was cheaper. Now taxes rise, and those same people are stuck with their old diesel car; the capital cost to change it is too high for their budgets, and they have no alternative because they live in rural areas with no public transit. In short, they're f*cked. + Show Spoiler +From the poorest to the richest decile, % spent on fuel Meanwhile, Macron gives billions and billions of tax cuts to the wealthiest and companies; he refuses to end the fiscal exemptions on kérosène & the fuel used by boats or trucks (which would be about the same amount of money collected); and small train lines in rural areas are closed because they're not profitable. The result is that he's effectively redistributing backwards. If he cared about ecology, he would tax the biggest polluters. Macron is basically greenwashing fiscal injustice.
from a german point of view that does see a bit overblown simply because for us the whole Diesel "scandal" is also a thing and we're talking about a lot more than just higher Diesel (or gasoline) taxes. We're talking about not allowing people to drive Diesel cars anymore in certain places.
Frankfurt for example has been ordered by a judge to make a zone where Diesel cars aren't allowed in anymore.
Essen (also a fairly big city) has the same issue and in their case google says it even includes the Autobahn A40 to some degree.
I have to be honest that I don't really keep up with this though because I don't own a Diesel car so someone else might have better information on this.
But that at least somewhat explains why "increased diesel taxes" might sound like a good thing to a german. Forcing those people to get a new car entirely is what we're dealing with over here and that's hitting people even worse.
Politicians would point at France and say "noone's considering to go that extreme over there. They're just increasing taxes. We should do that as well!" etc
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EPT![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DsIGrPFXQAIIPB5.jpg )
