EPTIf you guys didn't follow lord_nibbler's link the headline is only telling part of the truth. The other part is that European big chemical corporations like BASF, Bayer and Du Pont did intense lobbying seeking to lower consumer/worker protection in relation to certain pesticides in the trade agreement. It's not fair putting the blame only on the U.S. side.
European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 116
| Forum Index > General Forum |
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action. | ||
|
Banaora
Germany234 Posts
If you guys didn't follow lord_nibbler's link the headline is only telling part of the truth. The other part is that European big chemical corporations like BASF, Bayer and Du Pont did intense lobbying seeking to lower consumer/worker protection in relation to certain pesticides in the trade agreement. It's not fair putting the blame only on the U.S. side. | ||
|
CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2843 Posts
| ||
|
lastpuritan
United States540 Posts
A Belgian deputy of Turkish origin has been expelled from her party for refusing to call the 1915 killings of Ottoman Armenians as “genocide.” Humanist Democratic Centre (cdH) said in a statement on May 29 that Mahinur Özdemir, the youngest and first Islamic headscarf-wearing member of Brussels Regional Parliament, was expelled from the party for acting against the party’s “deontological” by laws, which recognizes the killings as genocide. According to sources speaking to daily Hürriyet, one of the reasons for the decision was a recent footage of a Belgian television network which showed Özdemir while trying to avoid a journalist when asked about how she described the 1915 killings. cdH Chairman Benoit Lutgen had previously announced that “all genocide deniers” in the party would be immediately expelled. Armenia says up to 1.5 million Ottoman Armenians were killed in a genocide starting in 1915. Turkey denies that the deaths amounted to genocide, saying the death toll of Armenians killed during mass deportations has been inflated and that those killed in 1915 and 1916 were victims of general unrest during World War I, when Turkish troops were fighting Russian forces. Before her expulsion from the party, Özdemir, now an independent deputy, had also boycotted a moment of silence in the parliament to mark the 1915 killings, stressing that there was no court decision on the validity of the Armenian claims. "My expulsion has become a black stain in cdH's and Belgian democracy's history. I stand behind my views on this issue. I'm standing strong and I'm never giving up my freedom of speech," she said in a statement. May/30/2015 | ||
|
Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
| ||
|
maartendq
Belgium3115 Posts
On June 03 2015 07:15 Rassy wrote: So, this weekend Greece goes out or what? Looks like it if Greece keeps insisting that just throwing money at the problem will magically fix the multitute of systemic issues the country has. | ||
|
Sent.
Poland9321 Posts
| ||
|
RvB
Netherlands6300 Posts
| ||
|
accela
Greece314 Posts
On June 03 2015 07:15 Rassy wrote: So, this weekend Greece goes out or what? If the IMF and the EU (Germany mainly) insist on neoliberal deforms while closing their eyes on the obviously unsustainable debt then, yes Greece is going to exit the eurozone possibly not this weekend but at the end of June. On June 03 2015 16:43 Sent. wrote: How do even kick a country out from EU? There is no procedure No you cannot be kicked but they certainly can force you to leave stopping liquidity from ECB. | ||
|
Noizhende
Austria328 Posts
| ||
|
Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
There is a proposal now from the imf,eu and ecb for Greece, its a last ditch attempt. Greece has to accept these proposed measures of cost cutting or else there will be no help and bankruptcy is inevitable. So what will tsipras do? I do not think he can accept the proposal because then he would most likely be breaking the promises he made during the election. If he accepts I think there is a good chance he wont get reelected and there will be civil unrest. Refusing the proposal is also not a viable option,its like signing your own death sentence. He will keep his promises to the voters but if all money will flow out of the country the population wont be happy either. Best thing he could do I think is resign and call for new elections,that could buy Greece another few months time if the creditors would accept it. But yes, its far from sure Greece will leave,the stakes are high and they will do everything possible to keep Greece in the euro. Everytime in the past there came a solution at the last moment,with the exception of Cyprus. It seems reasonable to expect that this time will be the same. I personally think it wont and I think Greece will temporarily leave the euro but we will see,it seems to be the end game now so it should not be to long before the results are clear. | ||
|
dismiss
United Kingdom3341 Posts
On June 03 2015 20:50 Noizhende wrote: kicking greece out won't change anything, if they do this portugal will be the next weakest link, then spain, etc. it's a european structural problem, not only a greek one. It's more a thing of Greece continually acting in bad faith since they joined the Eurozone, pretty much. Even if Greeces problems could miraculously be fixed by throwing money at them, there's only so much the politicians in wealthier countries could sell their respective electorates. Especially when you consider how laughably uncooperative the bunch of clowns they call government now is. Syriza might also have actively drafted plans for an exit already. There aren't many drawbacks to them pretending as if they want to to remain in the Eurozone. Either they get gifted a few billions more or they have the ability to mine tremendously more political capital out of being thrown out as opposed to leaving voluntarily. | ||
|
accela
Greece314 Posts
On June 03 2015 21:02 Rassy wrote: Find it difficult to imagine Greece staying in the euro after go bankrupt. Them being in the euro is one of the reasons for all of the problems. If they would temporarily leave the euro, then devaluate their own currency,then they can maybe rejoin again in 2-3 years at a devalued conversion rate. It could solve some of the problems the "one currency fits all" system has. There is a proposal now from the imf,eu and ecb for Greece, its a last ditch attempt. Greece has to accept these proposed measures of cost cutting or else there will be no help and bankruptcy is inevitable. So what will tsipras do? I do not think he can accept the proposal because then he would most likely be breaking the promises he made during the election. If he accepts I think there is a good chance he wont get reelected and there will be civil unrest. Refusing the proposal is also not a viable option,its like signing your own death sentence. He will keep his promises to the voters but if all money will flow out of the country the population wont be happy either. Best thing he could do I think is resign and call for new elections,that could buy Greece another few months time if the creditors would accept it. But yes, its far from sure Greece will leave,the stakes are high and they will do everything possible to keep Greece in the euro. Everytime in the past there came a solution at the last moment,with the exception of Cyprus. It seems reasonable to expect that this time will be the same. I personally think it wont and I think Greece will temporarily leave the euro but we will see,it seems to be the end game now so it should not be to long before the results are clear. What Tsipras, Syriza or the european govs want is very much irrelevant at this point. There is a huge debt that simple cannot be paid back and political games have absolutely no effect on it, do as many elections you like, the debt will remain as it is, unsustainable and will keep rising as it is. Keep pumping as much money (more loans) and will just keep rising and rising and rising. Also there is no turning back, there have been theoretical suggestions like a dual currency but what currency you will use is a choice that affects a country's policies for the next many decades, economic and geopolitical. Yes there is an ultimatum from EU/IMF and i guess you know what independent democratic countries answer to ultimatums. | ||
|
Rassy
Netherlands2308 Posts
My sympathy is with Greece (because I strongly dislike the establishment we have) but I do think that Greece could make a better effort and has itself to blame for at least some of the problems. The debt is to big and no political game can change that. Don't fully agree with this and this is one of the focal points of the whole issue kinda. Greece more or less says the debt is to big and can never be handled,and thus there has to be (another) write down on the debt. The eu says, well the debt is big but it can be handled if you push these reforms and cut these costs. That is what the game is about,its not so much political,its more about technicalities I think. If no reforms are made then the current debt is insustainable and we are in the position you described. If reforms are made and costs are cut then the debt could be sustainable,at least that's what the imf etcetera seem to think (I personally have no clue if this is true) The elections are not something I would like to see,its just what I think is the most viable option for tsipras and he did more or less "threaten" with it several times already. The creditors wont be happy with elections and another delay but I think it will be difficult for them to force a bankruptcy on Greece when new elections are announced. Beeing able to turn back is a matter of opinion. Leaving the euro temporarily is a valid option I think,it does not have to define the economic policy for the next decades. After ww2 many countrys reformed their money system and within only a few years everything was "back to normal" I don't see why Greece could not go back to their own currency and rejoin a few years later (if they would want to) . I have to admit that this option does not look very attractive for either side but it might be the only option in the end. Well,will see how it ends. I do hope it all ends well. The games that the financial "powers that be" are playing are disgusting to be honest and beyond any human dignity but allas, will safe that rant for another time. , | ||
|
accela
Greece314 Posts
On June 03 2015 22:14 Rassy wrote: Just to be clear,i personally have no opinion about the whole situation (well I have,but that one is so weird and cynical that I will keep it to myself) I do not blame Greece,nor do I blame the ecb. My sympathy is with Greece (because I strongly dislike the establishment we have) but I do think that Greece could make a better effort and has itself to blame for at least some of the problems. The debt is to big and no political game can change that. Don't fully agree with this and this is one of the focal points of the whole issue kinda. Greece more or less says the debt is to big and can never be handled,and thus there has to be (another) write down on the debt. The eu says, well the debt is big but it can be handled if you push these reforms and cut these costs. That is what the game is about,its not so much political,its more about technicalities I think. If no reforms are made then the current debt is insustainable and we are in the position you described. If reforms are made and costs are cut then the debt could be sustainable,at least that's what the imf etcetera seem to think (I personally have no clue if this is true) The elections are not something I would like to see,its just what I think is the most viable option for tsipras and he did more or less "threaten" with it several times already. The creditors wont be happy with elections and another delay but I think it will be difficult for them to force a bankruptcy on Greece when new elections are announced. Beeing able to turn back is a matter of opinion. Leaving the euro temporarily is a valid option I think,it does not have to define the economic policy for the next decades. After ww2 many countrys reformed their money system and within only a few years everything was "back to normal" I don't see why Greece could not go back to their own currency and rejoin a few years later (if they would want to) . I have to admit that this option does not look very attractive for either side but it might be the only option in the end. Well,will see how it ends. I do hope it all ends well. The games that the financial "powers that be" are playing are disgusting to be honest and beyond any human dignity but allas, will safe that rant for another time. , I don't know what your media talk about but the IMF surely thinks that the greek debt is unsustainable, it's basicly the eu governments who still (appear to) keep the absurd belief that a economicaly destroyed country that can hardly float on no deficit to have a surplus of 4% for the many many years to come. Theoriticaly that would ofc could happen.After all anything is possible. We could possibly totally destroy the (already half destroyed) public health care, shutdown the universities, schools (already the "reforms" did that in great extend) in general we could totally shut down the government and BEHOLD an economic miracle of a sustainable debt.... but unsustainable people. Anyway exactly because there is no common ground i strongly believe that Greece and EU should just shake hands and based on a common plan to move apart. Greece will have to default and have creditors accept a haircut that will make the debt viable. Of course the creditors of the greek debt are right now the european countries, i wish it could be possible to roll back the bailout loans so the debt return back to the german and french banks but that's a really lot to ask  "After ww2 many countrys reformed their money system and within only a few years everything was "back to normal" You mean like Germany and the 1953 haircut agreement? I do think that Greece could make a better effort funny, ![[image loading]](https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-J1cUcudxYsU/VN-D3Bua7XI/AAAAAAAABF4/rTWUghqxuyg/s1600/OECD%2Breform%2Bchart.png) The elections are not something I would like to see,its just what I think is the most viable option for tsipras and he did more or less "threaten" with it several times already. Referendum not elections, there is no point for elections anyway, Syriza atm according to the (historically favorable to systemic parties) polls leads with a huge margin of more than 20%. | ||
|
cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
| ||
|
warding
Portugal2396 Posts
On June 04 2015 03:00 cLutZ wrote: The Greeks should just default, stay in the Eurozone (because the hyperinflation following an exit would probably be even worse), and run the country on a primary surplus/balanced budget for the foreseeable future. What about the banking system collapse that would ensue? How does Greece stay in a primary surplus amidst a financial crisis? Where is the ECB in all of this? | ||
|
cLutZ
United States19574 Posts
I am not saying this is a good option for the Greek people, it is simply the least bad option, which has been set up because they made a decade + of financial mistakes. The Krugman plan is similar, if I recall. He would have them run a primary surplus plus negotiate with foreign banks as well, I find this plan to just be a dumber version of the plan I propose as it would continue draining financial resources from Greece without providing any significant increases in the QOL for an average Greek citizen over my plan. Also I suspect the Greeks would be unable to conform to the requirements of his plan (politically), the necessary haircut to foreign creditors would essentially make their budget a ward of the ECB anyways (something I suspect he secretly wants), and the haircuts to Greek creditors would cause a banking crises as well. The theoretically best option may be the "Grexit" but I have no faith that it would practically work. Most likely what would happen is people hearing rumblings hours before it occurs, resulting on a run on the banks, then the currency shift means there is no chance for borrowing anyways (so you have to run a balanced budget) and a high likelihood of hyperinflation would follow. I would put the chance of an orderly currency shift + controlled inflation following at less than 10%. | ||
|
Nyxisto
Germany6287 Posts
On June 04 2015 04:13 cLutZ wrote: Greece takes in more than enough in taxes to run a functional central government, its just not the kind of government the Greek people want. Where is that coming from? Greece does not take in enough to run a functional central government or they wouldn't be in the situation they are in. At the moment their whole pension system hangs on transfer payments from several institutions. "Flipping the finger" would result in a humanitarian crisis and probably complete loss of confidence in their government. | ||
|
Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
| ||
|
accela
Greece314 Posts
On June 04 2015 04:17 Nyxisto wrote: Where is that coming from? Greece does not take in enough to run a functional central government or they wouldn't be in the situation they are in. At the moment their whole pension system hangs on transfer payments from several institutions. "Flipping the finger" would result in a humanitarian crisis and probably complete loss of confidence in their government. What are you talking about? Greece is running a balanced budget, the transfer of the reserves happened because in March Greece had to make a payment to IMF and that's the whole discussion about how external debt is not viable. But obviously Greece will soon have to choose who to pay, pensions and wages or the debt. The State Budget Primary Balance amounted to a surplus of 2,103 million Euros, against the target for primary deficit of 310 million Euros and the primary surplus of 1,046 million Euros performed at the same period of the previous year. source | ||
| ||
