European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 118

On June 07 2015 23:26 MoltkeWarding wrote:
The relevance is in responsibility and self-serving thought. The 2010 bailouts were not the product of a short-sighted German master plan to bolster its exports sector, contrary to the blather of pundits. In 2010 the debate was over the stability of the Euro, whether that warranted the deliberate violation of the Maastricht treaty, and whether the belief in the “European” project could be pushed through the German parliament in face of public hostility to the bailouts. If there had been no austerity agreement, the bailouts would never have happened. To say five years down the line, after Germany had spent nearly 80 billion Euro bailing out Greece, that actually, Germany bears moral responsibility for imposing the disastrous deal which you (not your country, not bad economic theorists, but you as a private thinker) were begging her to sign five years ago, is considerable feat of ethical dexterity.

Five years ago, you thought it was a good idea for Germany to loan Greece her share of a 110 billion Euro bailout package at 5% interest, since it was a guaranteed profit-making scheme for Germany. You were not naïve; you recognized that austerity would be imposed on Greece as a corollary, and presumably you either believed that “growth” would be viable under such conditions, or you did not, in which case you were cynically advocating sovereign theft backed by a collective lie, so that your country could hobble along for a few more years.

Assuming that you really did believe what you claimed to believe back then, you were presumably misinformed by the self-serving illusions conjured up by your press, and felt that instead of using common sense and “only look at the numbers, after all,” you had to surrender to a collective partisanship on behalf of your nation’s parochial interests. Back then, Germany was going to serve its own “interests” by using her investments in Greek debt as a passive piggy bank. Today, Germany should do what you want because she needs to refill her piggy bank after the previous deposits fell out of a hole. The idea that your benefactor was really benefiting himself all along, the belief in his selfish selflessness, are probably cognitive biases necessary for the maintenance of your own selfless selfishness. But in the end, Germany is not better off: her private debt-holders have already lost better than half the value of their investments, and you would be perfectly happy to see them lose the remainder. Every German taxpayer has loaned nearly two thousand Euro to Greece, which will be a complete loss. Five years ago, I have no doubt you would have argued that Germany should commit public money to save private money in Greece, while you would have had no problem with Germany losing all her private investments as long as she infused bailout money under any pretext. I have no doubt that when the European governments infuse further money into Greece to repay themselves, that when 5 years down the line, repayment of that not availing, you will again advocate a haircut on the principal.

Whether you have fallen victim to a collective cognitive bias, or whether you are speaking out of cynical self-interest is actually irrelevant. The argument as a whole is unconvincing to anyone who can “only look at the numbers.”

On June 08 2015 02:18 Aceace wrote:
Off-topic:

Guys...
We are going to get rid of AKP here (Turkey). Unfortunately Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will stay with us for 4 more years but its a begining.

On June 07 2015 21:04 Taguchi wrote:
The current situation is this: Greece cannot pay back its debt. No fucking way in hell. This is true today and it was true 5 years ago.

On June 08 2015 04:44 Velr wrote:



Got rid off = Is not ruling alone anymore but still has ~4X% and is the by far strongest party?

On June 08 2015 15:46 maartendq wrote:

Well, this does throw a spanner into the works what Erdogan's plans are concerned.

On June 08 2015 06:52 lastpuritan wrote:
AKP will stay but Kurds have a powerful stand in their parliament. We can still say it is a dominating result for AKP with %40-41, its a victory for Kurds with %12 for the first time in their history, thanks to leftists and liberals.

But its again up to Erdogans will, re-election or he will unite his party with right nationalistic party MHP to get enough seats to establish an administration, government - whatever you name it. (worst case )

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32993721

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33042284

right centrist movement AKP with 254 seats = %40
secular nationalistic CHP with 132 seats = %25
right nationalistic MHP with 82 seats = %16
lefty-liberal-kurdish nationalistic HDP with 82 seats = %12

If it is true. In short, Turkey will be still nationalistic. : D

On June 08 2015 18:39 Aceace wrote:


-AKP isn't a right centrist movement. They are a political islamic movement. They supported ISIS, Erdogan used Quran to get votes for AKP. He wanted to have 400 (!) seats for AKP to remove democratic system and seperation of powers, to become a president like Putin

-CHP used to be secular nationalistic party for 80 years. After their old leader Deniz Baykal removed by his position thanks to his sex tapes (which was a huge buff for AKP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu took the party more social democrat line. A lot of their supporters vote for HDP to pass bullshit %10 election threshold (Seriously if someday we can get rid of this stupidly high threshold.....)

-You are right about MHP.

-HDP is changing. They have support of extremely Kurdish nationalists but they also have support of main left movement of Turkey. Kurdish nationalist have %5-6.

@Velr
AKP won't have majority of seats in parlament. This is big. This is probably the biggest hit Erdogan ever faced. It isn't over yet. But it will be beginning.

On June 08 2015 22:15 Velr wrote:
That was covered perfectly fine here? HDP = Kurds + Liberals

As for the rest of your post. What about the bombings at that HDP Rally just before the elections? Your view seems a bit one sided?


Btw: Fun fact. German-Turks seem to have mainly voted AKP, Swiss-Turks HDP.

On June 08 2015 02:10 MoltkeWarding wrote:
The problem with the suggestion that German tax payers were bailing out French and Swiss banks back in 2010 is that there is no evidence backing the claim. You are essentially inviting me to commit the same post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy which you have assumed, because it will unburden your conscience to believe it to be true.

On June 09 2015 00:23 Sermokala wrote:
If AKP Push's for a separate kurdish state with Iraq kurds syrian kurds and turkish kurds would that give them an overwhelming political position? Or does their politics not allow them to support the kurdish population from their past actions?

On June 08 2015 22:54 lastpuritan wrote:


right centrist is still islamic movement when their "right" is rooted on islam. though i agree their main concern resembles with UR -both putin and erdogan are dictators- AKP was the only party carrying liberal thoughts for years, mostly economically and then socially, otherwise denial of kurdish nationality would continue by CHP's and MHP's instrumentality.

i did not know about current CHP, thanks for correcting but you are the first one who says CHP supporters voted for HDP. according to media HDP stole kurdish votes from Erdogan in East with an unexpected jump from %5-6 as you said. Erdogan used to hold at least 10 millions of kurdish votes in his hands. hope this will effect Erdogan's harsh stand against opposition and eu.

elections 2011 (kurds are blue colored)



elections 2015 (kurds are green colored)



Im guessing you are turkish, who did you vote for and what are your thoughts about kurdish movement, peace process and country's rising islamic inclination?