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European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1065

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Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18736 Posts
March 04 2018 19:44 GMT
#21281
On March 05 2018 04:29 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2018 01:18 Big J wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


If anyone cares, local election results from the federal state of Carinthia. Greens evaporated, neoliberals don't make it in, big gains for social-democrats and far right populists. A second right-wing populist party also makes it in again, the third one is finally out of all parliaments.
The former government was a coalition of SocDems+Cons+Greens.

What explains the Greens → S&D transfer?


former Greens boss started working at a gambling company
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
March 04 2018 20:08 GMT
#21282
On March 05 2018 04:29 TheDwf wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2018 01:18 Big J wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


If anyone cares, local election results from the federal state of Carinthia. Greens evaporated, neoliberals don't make it in, big gains for social-democrats and far right populists. A second right-wing populist party also makes it in again, the third one is finally out of all parliaments.
The former government was a coalition of SocDems+Cons+Greens.

What explains the Greens → S&D transfer?



The Austrian Greens are self-destructing at the moment. They lost 8.5% and fell out of parliament last autumn in the general elections, due to all sorts of internal scandals, including the resignation of the longtime party leader Mrs Glawischnig. Some of those incidents did happen in Carinthia, which led to a split of the party there (they reached like 0.1%). The whole party is a mess at this point, they used to be rather popular for their anti-corruption stance, but it was turned into a feel-good girls club in the past years under Mrs Glawischnigs control and drove away some of their most proficient personal.
Additionally, two days ago, Mrs Glawischnig, who comes from Carinthia, thought it would be a good time to announce her new job at Novomatic. Which ist the biggest private gambling company in the country and has been regularily under heavy fire from the Green party. For their busniess practices as well as political corruption including the previous ÖVP-FPÖ government.
It was the major topic of the past few days in all the headlines (the Green party immidiately reacted and Mrs Glawischnig was forced to terminate her party membership within hours).
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-04 20:14:41
March 04 2018 20:14 GMT
#21283
Funny, French Greens have always been very good at self-destruction too. Must be something with this political family—too much faith in the recycling of wastes, perhaps?
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
March 04 2018 21:30 GMT
#21284
German Greens seem to be doing quite well, have climbed up to about 13% from their usual ~9-10% after the recent election.
Yuljan
Profile Blog Joined March 2004
2196 Posts
March 04 2018 21:34 GMT
#21285
Just gathering the leftovers from the SPD that dont want to vote conservative or right wing. Doesn't not seem to be based on any attraction force from themself.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
March 04 2018 21:35 GMT
#21286
On March 05 2018 06:30 Nyxisto wrote:
German Greens seem to be doing quite well, have climbed up to about 13% from their usual ~9-10% after the recent election.

Well of course, they are feeding off you, aren't they?
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-04 22:03:33
March 04 2018 22:00 GMT
#21287
they better pick another victim soon because not much left to feed off at this point

I do think though it's not just about siphoning voters. They're also striking an interesting ideological crossover between environmental / progressive green values on the one hand and conservative economic voters on the other. Pragmatic Green politicians like Kretschmann are very popular at the moment.

During the jamaika talks it already seemed like the Greens and the CDU had a much easier time than the FDP and CDU.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
March 04 2018 22:43 GMT
#21288
Are your Greens neoliberals?
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-04 23:40:03
March 04 2018 22:51 GMT
#21289
depends on your definition. they don't advocate tax cuts or spending cuts but they've also moved away from calling for large tax increases. They're kind of in middle of the economic spectrum and draw quite a lot high income voters.

https://www.fes.de/strategy-debates-global/strategy-debates-germany/

this overview has a section on the greens


edit: also what the fuck is going on in italy
Toadesstern
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Germany16350 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-05 00:15:35
March 05 2018 00:14 GMT
#21290
I told you that the Greens would come out of the Jamaica discussions with a lot of gained votes and that the FDP would lose a lot. But ya'll didn't believe me~

The SPD is probably the biggest loser but I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of those actually end up non-voters (basicly helping everyone) or AfD voters. I don't really see them going to the Greens. At least not more than other parties would lose towards the greens. Like Nyxisto already mentioned the environmental aspect combined with the conservative economics wouldn't make it all that hard to go from CDU to Greens imo. That could be bias though as it's kinda what happened to me.
I don't see FDP voters (the other party losing a lot) going over to SPD either. So those will all go Greens or possibly CDU. It's really only the politicians that think CDU+Greens is impossible imoimo

But hey, maybe we'll have Green overtake the AFD in the future to claim 2nd biggest party in Germany. I'd be all up for that
<Elem> >toad in charge of judging lewdness <Elem> how bad can it be <Elem> also wew, that is actually p lewd.
VHbb
Profile Joined October 2014
692 Posts
March 05 2018 06:02 GMT
#21291
On March 05 2018 07:51 Nyxisto wrote:


edit: also what the fuck is going on in italy



we fucked up big time
My life for Aiur !
LegalLord
Profile Blog Joined April 2013
United States13779 Posts
March 05 2018 06:36 GMT
#21292
Pleasantly surprised by Italy today.
History will sooner or later sweep the European Union away without mercy.
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
March 05 2018 08:41 GMT
#21293
Can someone more versed in Italian politics explain to me whether Berlusconi won or lost? The media is rather inconclusive on this one...
To me it looks like he lost heavily and I would expect Salvini and Lega to claim the leadership of the right-wing, but I have little clue on how those alliances work in Italy.

Also, with PD-Forza being out of the question, it seems like the liberal parts of media are running out of baskets to put their eggs in. You'd expect the self-proclaimed intellectual elites to understand that when people are pissed you can't keep on leading into the same direction, but it seems like they rather declare everyone with a different opinion an extremist.
SoSexy
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Italy3725 Posts
March 05 2018 09:19 GMT
#21294
Some comments:

- Fascism was never a menace, just propaganda play by the same stale, sad parties and newspapers. 'Black wave', blabla...result: 0,8%. But I already knew that. PD and LEU wanted to bank on that but it backfired heavily (so glad it did)
- Huge victory for 5S. They will play a big role in the next government for sure.
- Berlusconi lost, yes. The result isn't good and he is being carried by Salvini. He probably thought he could have more than him but anyways don't forget that the center-right coalition is the 1st power.
Dating thread on TL LUL
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
March 05 2018 11:17 GMT
#21295
On March 03 2018 21:08 TheDwf wrote:

Two electoral tests

On the 4/03 and 11/03, two new by-elections occur, following the previous législatives partielles.

+ Show Spoiler +
So far, Macron's party lost in all elections. In September, they got far less senators than what they expected (somewhat normal given the voting method, but still); in 3 municipales, they did not even reach the second round; and they lost both législatives partielles last month (link above). For the two coming elections:

The 973-02 (which is an Overseas territory, in Guyane) election was very close in June 2017: the macronist won with only 57 votes (out of 12k votes) more than his challenger, a trade unionist marked as “left-wing regionalist” who had been a local figure of the 2017 social movement in Guyane. What changes with the reelection is that this guy is now supported by the FI (the main left-wing force, consistently considered the main opponent according to polls), and will join their group if he wins. Mélenchon had arrived first in the présidentielle in Guyane, with 24,72% of the votes (+5 points compared with the national average). Should the same duel occur in the second round, there is a decent chance that the FI gets a 18th député by beating a macronist, which would be considered a bad omen for the government and a contrario, an excellent symbol for the opposing left.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Results last June for the first 4 candidates.

REM = Macron (winner of the second round)
REG = The now FI-supported challenger
The third candidate was affiliated to some small party linked with the PS.


The 31-08 district is interesting because it's historically a left-wing constituency. The PS holds it without interruption since 1988 (the district was created in 1986). In 2012, the PS candidate even won right away in the first round with 51,6% of the votes. And when the PS lost 90% of its députés following Macron's election, the 31-08 elected one of the 30 PS survivors, winning with 91 more votes than his macronist rival (over 34k expressed votes).

Bad luck, the election was cancelled… and now the perspective of the reelection seems very uncertain for the former PS winner. In June 2017, he was “only” 1 600 votes ahead of the FI candidate out of 43.5k expressed votes; so if PS voters desert, or some switch to the FI, there is a possibility that he doesn't even reach the second round.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Results last June for the first 5 candidates.

REM = Macron
SOC = PS (winner of the second round)
FN = far-right
FI = left
UDI = centre-right (allied with the right)


Mélenchon is taking very seriously those elections; he held a meeting in the 31-08, and is spending a whole week in the 973-02, even staying there until the results of the first round are announced. During the meeting, he said that he's hoping for a “thunderclap” in those “popular lands”.

On paper both districts look winnable for the FI, but they might run into the wall of differential abstention (the FI electorate is, among others, composed of lower classes and young people who demobilize far more easily), especially as the abstention in those by-elections can skyrocket to 70-80%, perhaps even 90% in Guyane…

At any rate, should Macron's party lose again those by-elections, it will make some noise.

Well, surprisingly the participation actually rose in Guyane, from 26% in June 2017 to 35% yesterday. It's quite extraordinary for a by-election, where a massive increase in abstention is often the rule.

The second round will be the same as in June 2017. It's hard to compare directly, as some candidates dropped since June and others arrived, but:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


- The incumbent macronist député (also supported by the centre-right this time) arrived first again with 43,1%, i.e. +2332 votes and +6,7 points of expressed votes.
- His challenger (independent in June, FI-supported now) got 35,1%, gaining 2823 votes and 14,8 points of expressed votes.
- The third candidate, local variant of the PS, got 10,1% of the votes and 1385 votes. In June the 2012 député, roughly on the same political space, had scored 19,45% of the votes (1919 votes).
- The FN, who had not presented any candidate in June, got 1,8% of the votes yesterday. The far-right has probably no local implantation there, so this minuscule score is not indicative, but Le Pen had arrived second with 24,3% of the votes in the présidentielle. Can't explain those results.
- A macronist dissident scored 2%.

The second round should be close.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
March 05 2018 14:14 GMT
#21296
I don't understand why Italy would have two different lines for genders. Nor the long wait times. I've never waited more than a few seconds before voting and I live in a city of 8 million. Very strange from my perspective.
ByteCurious
Profile Joined January 2018
19 Posts
March 05 2018 14:47 GMT
#21297
On March 05 2018 23:14 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
two different lines for genders..


How very unwoke of them. Where would I queue as a demi-cloud Beethoven-the-dog-not-the-composer-gender?
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 05 2018 15:07 GMT
#21298
It is in the same line for failed comedians.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
March 05 2018 15:15 GMT
#21299
Since this is Europe and not the US I expect that they would find a practical solution for right-wing SJWs such as yourself.
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
March 05 2018 15:56 GMT
#21300
On March 05 2018 23:47 ByteCurious wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 05 2018 23:14 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
two different lines for genders..


How very unwoke of them. Where would I queue as a demi-cloud Beethoven-the-dog-not-the-composer-gender?

Wtf is unwoke?
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