• Log InLog In
  • Register
Liquid`
Team Liquid Liquipedia
EDT 01:26
CEST 07:26
KST 14:26
  • Home
  • Forum
  • Calendar
  • Streams
  • Liquipedia
  • Features
  • Store
  • EPT
  • TL+
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Smash
  • Heroes
  • Counter-Strike
  • Overwatch
  • Liquibet
  • Fantasy StarCraft
  • TLPD
  • StarCraft 2
  • Brood War
  • Blogs
Forum Sidebar
Events/Features
News
Featured News
[ASL19] Finals Recap: Standing Tall9HomeStory Cup 27 - Info & Preview18Classic wins Code S Season 2 (2025)16Code S RO4 & Finals Preview: herO, Rogue, Classic, GuMiho0TL Team Map Contest #5: Presented by Monster Energy6
Community News
[BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China2Flash Announces Hiatus From ASL63Weekly Cups (June 23-29): Reynor in world title form?13FEL Cracov 2025 (July 27) - $8000 live event22Esports World Cup 2025 - Final Player Roster16
StarCraft 2
General
Program: SC2 / XSplit / OBS Scene Switcher The SCII GOAT: A statistical Evaluation Statistics for vetoed/disliked maps Weekly Cups (June 23-29): Reynor in world title form? PiG Sty Festival #5: Playoffs Preview + Groups Recap
Tourneys
RSL: Revival, a new crowdfunded tournament series FEL Cracov 2025 (July 27) - $8000 live event Sparkling Tuna Cup - Weekly Open Tournament WardiTV Mondays Korean Starcraft League Week 77
Strategy
How did i lose this ZvP, whats the proper response Simple Questions Simple Answers
Custom Maps
[UMS] Zillion Zerglings
External Content
Mutation # 481 Fear and Lava Mutation # 480 Moths to the Flame Mutation # 479 Worn Out Welcome Mutation # 478 Instant Karma
Brood War
General
SC uni coach streams logging into betting site Player “Jedi” cheat on CSL Flash Announces Hiatus From ASL BW General Discussion Practice Partners (Official)
Tourneys
CSL Xiamen International Invitational [BSL20] Non-Korean Championship 4x BSL + 4x China The Casual Games of the Week Thread [BSL20] Grand Finals - Sunday 20:00 CET
Strategy
Simple Questions, Simple Answers I am doing this better than progamers do.
Other Games
General Games
Stormgate/Frost Giant Megathread Path of Exile Nintendo Switch Thread What do you want from future RTS games? Beyond All Reason
Dota 2
Official 'what is Dota anymore' discussion
League of Legends
Heroes of the Storm
Simple Questions, Simple Answers Heroes of the Storm 2.0
Hearthstone
Heroes of StarCraft mini-set
TL Mafia
TL Mafia Community Thread Vanilla Mini Mafia
Community
General
Summer Games Done Quick 2025! US Politics Mega-thread Russo-Ukrainian War Thread Trading/Investing Thread Things Aren’t Peaceful in Palestine
Fan Clubs
SKT1 Classic Fan Club! Maru Fan Club
Media & Entertainment
Anime Discussion Thread [Manga] One Piece [\m/] Heavy Metal Thread
Sports
Formula 1 Discussion 2024 - 2025 Football Thread NBA General Discussion TeamLiquid Health and Fitness Initiative For 2023 NHL Playoffs 2024
World Cup 2022
Tech Support
Computer Build, Upgrade & Buying Resource Thread
TL Community
Blogs
Culture Clash in Video Games…
TrAiDoS
from making sc maps to makin…
Husyelt
Blog #2
tankgirl
StarCraft improvement
iopq
Trip to the Zoo
micronesia
Customize Sidebar...

Website Feedback

Closed Threads



Active: 723 users

European Politico-economics QA Mega-thread - Page 1063

Forum Index > General Forum
Post a Reply
Prev 1 1061 1062 1063 1064 1065 1413 Next
Although this thread does not function under the same strict guidelines as the USPMT, it is still a general practice on TL to provide a source with an explanation on why it is relevant and what purpose it adds to the discussion. Failure to do so will result in a mod action.
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
March 01 2018 21:18 GMT
#21241
On March 02 2018 01:10 Dan HH wrote:
At least you guys have some semblance of a left. Here the far left are unheard of (under 1% every election), which is to be expected given that 'communist' and 'socialist' have become insults after 89.

The soc-dems are currently (and often) in power but oh boy.. they pander to pensioners, the church, social conservatives in general, and they regularly fuck workers. Recently they've shifted some taxes from employers to employees for example. Though most of their efforts these days are spent undermining the anti-corruption directorate, claiming that the reason so many of their party members have received sentences for corruption is due to, you guessed it, a witch hunt.
An issue you will always run into is that broad categories like "conservative" or "progressive" can be completely different in various countries and the political spectrum adjusts alongside. Social democracy as a core concept should be well enough defined to not fall into this trap but since the whole "social justice"-angle (man, this sounds really awkward in English due to similar but unrelated terms) that should be part of the core definition seems a bit more... fluid since a while.

Romania specifically for example is in the top #5 when it comes to corruption within the EU (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Hungary are on the same level or worse) so it would be more surprising if there wasn't corruption than that there is. I don't think that's something a party should be blamed for because they're soc-dems, it's more a of a systemic issue of the entire political landscape. One that you guys will hopefully work through, ideally with some EU help.

All I know personally is that your protests have been impressive as hell but I don't know if they actually did something so far.
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
Dan HH
Profile Joined July 2012
Romania9114 Posts
March 01 2018 23:33 GMT
#21242
On March 02 2018 06:18 r.Evo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2018 01:10 Dan HH wrote:
At least you guys have some semblance of a left. Here the far left are unheard of (under 1% every election), which is to be expected given that 'communist' and 'socialist' have become insults after 89.

The soc-dems are currently (and often) in power but oh boy.. they pander to pensioners, the church, social conservatives in general, and they regularly fuck workers. Recently they've shifted some taxes from employers to employees for example. Though most of their efforts these days are spent undermining the anti-corruption directorate, claiming that the reason so many of their party members have received sentences for corruption is due to, you guessed it, a witch hunt.
An issue you will always run into is that broad categories like "conservative" or "progressive" can be completely different in various countries and the political spectrum adjusts alongside. Social democracy as a core concept should be well enough defined to not fall into this trap but since the whole "social justice"-angle (man, this sounds really awkward in English due to similar but unrelated terms) that should be part of the core definition seems a bit more... fluid since a while.

Romania specifically for example is in the top #5 when it comes to corruption within the EU (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Hungary are on the same level or worse) so it would be more surprising if there wasn't corruption than that there is. I don't think that's something a party should be blamed for because they're soc-dems, it's more a of a systemic issue of the entire political landscape. One that you guys will hopefully work through, ideally with some EU help.

All I know personally is that your protests have been impressive as hell but I don't know if they actually did something so far.

I wasn't suggesting that they do these things because they are soc-dems, I was trying to show why I, as a soc-dem, don't consider them to be left of center and why I haven't and cannot vote for them despite their name.

As for corruption, it is indeed a systemic issue much older than our democracy, but while I can't blame PSD for the existence of corruption and I can't claim that the other parties don't have their fair share of it, I sure can blame them for doing more than any other party or organization to put the brakes on the fight against corruption.
r.Evo
Profile Joined August 2006
Germany14080 Posts
March 02 2018 01:09 GMT
#21243
On March 02 2018 08:33 Dan HH wrote:
Show nested quote +
On March 02 2018 06:18 r.Evo wrote:
On March 02 2018 01:10 Dan HH wrote:
At least you guys have some semblance of a left. Here the far left are unheard of (under 1% every election), which is to be expected given that 'communist' and 'socialist' have become insults after 89.

The soc-dems are currently (and often) in power but oh boy.. they pander to pensioners, the church, social conservatives in general, and they regularly fuck workers. Recently they've shifted some taxes from employers to employees for example. Though most of their efforts these days are spent undermining the anti-corruption directorate, claiming that the reason so many of their party members have received sentences for corruption is due to, you guessed it, a witch hunt.
An issue you will always run into is that broad categories like "conservative" or "progressive" can be completely different in various countries and the political spectrum adjusts alongside. Social democracy as a core concept should be well enough defined to not fall into this trap but since the whole "social justice"-angle (man, this sounds really awkward in English due to similar but unrelated terms) that should be part of the core definition seems a bit more... fluid since a while.

Romania specifically for example is in the top #5 when it comes to corruption within the EU (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy and Hungary are on the same level or worse) so it would be more surprising if there wasn't corruption than that there is. I don't think that's something a party should be blamed for because they're soc-dems, it's more a of a systemic issue of the entire political landscape. One that you guys will hopefully work through, ideally with some EU help.

All I know personally is that your protests have been impressive as hell but I don't know if they actually did something so far.

I wasn't suggesting that they do these things because they are soc-dems, I was trying to show why I, as a soc-dem, don't consider them to be left of center and why I haven't and cannot vote for them despite their name.

As for corruption, it is indeed a systemic issue much older than our democracy, but while I can't blame PSD for the existence of corruption and I can't claim that the other parties don't have their fair share of it, I sure can blame them for doing more than any other party or organization to put the brakes on the fight against corruption.

Yeah, sad reality is that it likely won't be different under any other party, it's gonna be a while to fix that mess.

In other news, the US tariffs are going to be fun:
"We don't make mistakes here, we call it happy little accidents." ~Bob Ross
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-02 14:44:23
March 02 2018 14:41 GMT
#21244
The weird thing is, does the EU even export steel to the US? Heck, does the countries in the EU even export steel at all? I am pretty sure that virtually all steel produced by the EU is used domestically or to countries in or next to the EU. I can only imagine that the intent of this is to say no to Trump trying to rip up WTO rules.

Edit: apparently 3% of USA import of steel comes from Germany.
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18824 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-02 14:43:21
March 02 2018 14:43 GMT
#21245
Yeah it seems less about the tariffs specifically and more about adhering to the WTO rules more generally.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
March 02 2018 14:46 GMT
#21246
I believe the theory is that if the US, as one of the core members of the WTO, starts breaking the rules whenever they want, everyone will start doing it.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
Big J
Profile Joined March 2011
Austria16289 Posts
March 02 2018 15:07 GMT
#21247
It's expected to be a cut of 50% in exports for europe, which is a negligable cut of 1-2% of europe's production. Prepare for steel companies to lobby for a reduction in wages by 25% to equalize the tariffs.
Longshank
Profile Joined March 2010
1648 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-02 16:28:42
March 02 2018 16:22 GMT
#21248
On March 02 2018 23:41 Dangermousecatdog wrote:
The weird thing is, does the EU even export steel to the US? Heck, does the countries in the EU even export steel at all? I am pretty sure that virtually all steel produced by the EU is used domestically or to countries in or next to the EU. I can only imagine that the intent of this is to say no to Trump trying to rip up WTO rules.

Edit: apparently 3% of USA import of steel comes from Germany.


Steel is a pretty big deal for northern Sweden but I've never heard about USA being a big customer. It's mainly been talks about the importance of the Chinese market and lately northern Africa. I can't google right now, will edit if I had it wrong.

Edit: 10% of our steel export goes to the US.
Sent.
Profile Joined June 2012
Poland9182 Posts
March 02 2018 16:30 GMT
#21249
Sneaky sneaky

Europe readies trade retaliation against Trump's steel, aluminum tariffs

The European Union said Thursday it's preparing a series of trade restrictions against U.S. goods and services, in response to the tariffs on steel and aluminum that President Trump said he would be announcing next week.

Trump said Thursday he would impose a 25 percent tariff on steel imports and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum imports to help protect American industry.

While it's not exactly clear what Europe and other trading partners would do in response, the EU released a statement Thursday indicating it would take immediate action, instead of filing a World Trade Organization dispute, which would take at least 15 months to litigate, and possibly much longer.

"We will not sit idly while our industry is hit with unfair measures that put thousands of European jobs at risk," said European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. "The EU will react firmly and commensurately to defend our interests."

"The Commission will bring forward in the next few days a proposal for WTO-compatible countermeasures against the U.S. to rebalance the situation," he said.

Reports over the last few weeks have said retaliation could take the form of tariffs on exports that hurt Republican states in particular, and put pressure on the GOP to get Trump to remove the tariffs. For example, tariffs or other restrictions could be imposed on exports of motorcycles made by Harley Davidson, which is headquartered in House Speaker Paul Ryan's home state.

Kentucky bourbon has also been the subject of speculation, to hit Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's state.

"The plan seems to be, let's go after Trump's allies, red states, make them pay a price," said one trade expert in Washington to wanted to remain anonymous.

While Juncker indicated immediate retaliatory steps, Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU's commissioner for trade, said the EU would also likely start the process of bringing a WTO case against the U.S. at the same time.

"The EU will seek dispute settlement consultations with the U.S. in Geneva at the earliest opportunity," she said. "The Commission will monitor market developments and if necessary will propose WTO-compatible safeguard action to preserve the stability of the EU market."

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/europe-readies-trade-retaliation-against-trumps-steel-aluminum-tariffs/article/2650466
You're now breathing manually
Dangermousecatdog
Profile Joined December 2010
United Kingdom7084 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-02 17:38:58
March 02 2018 17:38 GMT
#21250
Wow, that's actually pretty clever. To recognise this as an expectation from a particular subsect of American politics and threaten it accordingly, instead of USA as a whole. It is however oddly specific retaliation but whatever. I guess Scotch will become more popular soon. Though ideally, there will be no protectionism.
Gorsameth
Profile Joined April 2010
Netherlands21640 Posts
March 02 2018 17:43 GMT
#21251
They used the same tactic when Bush tried. Its simply recognizing that the US is being stupid and pressuring the individuals who have the power to turn it around.
It ignores such insignificant forces as time, entropy, and death
Nyxisto
Profile Joined August 2010
Germany6287 Posts
March 02 2018 18:19 GMT
#21252
It's good that the commission has relatively free hands on trade and can respond to this stuff fast.
warding
Profile Joined August 2005
Portugal2394 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-02 22:52:14
March 02 2018 22:51 GMT
#21253
The European Commission is trialing the free interrail pass for kids turning 18 this year. Only 12m tho... That's what, 50k passes?

Either way, awesome measure.
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
March 03 2018 12:08 GMT
#21254
The French spring might be (socially) hot. Macron has opened various fronts, and resistance is building up again.

Summary of the previous episodes: long story short, Macron is there to blast the post-war social model in order to “adapt French capitalism to globalization,” restore its competitivity and increase profits.

His electorate comes equally from the centre-left and the centre-right. During the campaign, he basically portrayed himself as a “liberal-progressist centrist” gathering the “pragmatic liberals from the two shores”.

Sociologically his electorate is a bit older, has higher qualification and is wealthier than the average. A class vote from the optimistic part of France which lives rather well in metropolises.

Macron opened the bal with executive orders on the labour market, making it easier and cheaper to fire people, lowering the “labour cost,” decentralizing decisions (company deals are now superior to collective conventions and the law, even if they're unfavorable for workers), weakening internal counter-powers in companies with the merging of some workers' instances. In short, moving the cursor of power towards the capital so that employers can “adjust to the market” and “remain competitive,” no matter the social cost.

His budget gave back 9 billions to the richest with the removal of the wealth tax and the introduction of a flat tax on capital incomes. He also cut 120k government-subsidized contracts (admittedly a “social patch,” but still); initially the government wanted to cut 220k of them, but protests made them step back. He lowered public spending by 15 billions (-5 for social security, -7 for the State, -3 for local collectivités). He decreased housing assistance by 5€/month for 6,5 millions of households, with many of them being part of the poorest and already in difficulty; an incredibly petty and unfair measure that he apparently regretted in private.

All of this got him the nickname “president of the riches” (it came from the left but it's now decently mainstream). The class polarization about Macron is almost cartoonish:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

TNS Kantar Sofres' monthly barometer, March edition.


So far so good for Macron. The labour movement and the left were too weak and/or divided to block his labour reform; his legitimacy was at his peak anyway shortly after two electoral wins, plus he had used executive orders to go faster (during the summer) and he had sedated trade unions with a pseudo-dialogue. Now he's launching the second wave of his offensive, but his situation worsened since last summer.

Macron's approval rating since his election looks like this (zooming a bit so that we see better the changes):

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Average of the monthly barometer of 7 polling companies


According to Ipsos, he's even the least popular so far:

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


On average, other companies have it 5-10 points above Ipsos though.

Anyway, if we go back to the average, we can observe an initial sharp decrease after the first fiscal announcements (-11 points in 2 months), then a stabilization in the autumn, a slight increase at the end of the year, and what could be the beginning of a second fairly sharp decrease in Februrary.

According to analysts and pollsters, the question of purchase power is central in this rising unpopularity. The government had promised to increase buying power, essentially via two mechanisms:

+ Show Spoiler [Purchase power] +
(1) suppressing the inhabitation tax, an unfair local tax which costs several hundreds of euros per year regardless of your revenue, for 80% of the households;

(2) suppressing two social contributions (health and unemployment) so that the difference falls directly into the pocket of workers, while rising by ~25% the CSG—a tax paid by the whole workforce and pensioners—to compensate and fund social security. At the end of the operation, someone working in the private sector and paid at minimum wage is expected to gain something like ~20€ per month. Basically it's a triple transfer: from gross to net; from the inactives (pensioners) to the active population; and, for the funding of social security, from contributions to taxes (fiscalization).

The government made the fairly gross mistake to implement progressively what it gives (the suppression of the inhabitation tax is scheduled over 3 years, to be fully effective in 2020; similarly, the net rise will be fully effective in October), while setting up instantly what it takes. Add a few increases (diesel, tobacco, gas, etc.) and the usual rise of private taxes (insurances, mutuals, tolls, etc.) and you get the general feeling that “the cost of life is rising”. Should be noted that the INSEE, our independent national socio-economic institute of statistics, estimated that households would pay an extra 4,5 billions of taxes in 2018 (“fake news!” replied the government).

The result, in January, is that:

- 5,4 millions of public servants saw the CSG rise, but the promised compensation was not made yet (the government blamed an informatic bug).
- 9 millions of pensioners (60% of them, theoretically those whose pension is above 1 200€ + Show Spoiler +
poverty threshold is at 1 015€ and the average pension is 1 300€
) saw the CSG rise, but no compensation (the government says that the compensation is the suppression of the inhabitation tax… but as said above, it will only be fully effective in 2020). For a 1 500€ pension, the CSG rise costs ~25€ per month (-300€ per year).
- Millions of modest workers saw a small increase, but fairly insignificant and/or instantly eaten by the rise of other things.

Here are the results of some poll (14/02) regarding purchase power:

+ Show Spoiler [Poll on purchase power] +
37% of polled people said that the government's economic policy was “good” (-12 in 2 months) vs 58% who considered it “bad”.

68% of polled people “had the feeling” that their purchase power had decreased during the last 12 months; 27% that it stayed constant; and a spectacular… 3% thought it had improved. — To be compared with the government's communication according to which “19 millions of workers saw a clear rise in purchase power in January”.

The poll, decidedly cruel, then asks directly people in its sample to compare their January 2018 revenues with the December 2017 ones. Answers: [Your January 2018 revenues are]

Inferior: 54%
Identical: 33%
Superior: 11%

Do you trust Macron to take measures in favor of your purchase power?

Yes: 24%
No: 74%


All oppositions rushed into this “purchase power” theme, both at the left and the right, to criticize the government.




Overall the social climate is becoming more tense. Several battlefields are opened:

University and high schools

+ Show Spoiler +
The government is introducing selection at the university (while claiming that it's not the case). Theoretically, before, when you had the baccalauréat [national diploma after you complete high scool] you could go to the university of your choice. Now no more; universities will get to select their students based on criterias of their choice.

The right had tried to introduce selection in 1986, but they had been forced to withdraw the reform after protests. One student, Malik Oussekine, had died at the hands of some violent cops after a demonstration. The minister, Devaquet, had resigned. Dark irony of the universe, he died in January, right when the current government was introducing selection like him 32 years ago…

The government used the fiasco of the orientations last summer (the system was bottled, some students had no answer until very late) to act. A few university streams were also saturated, so random draws (!) decided who was in and who remained out. Obviously having your future being decided by roll dice was unacceptable, so the government took this pretext to change everything (the government also argued that “there's too much failure in the first year of university”). The previous platform of orientation, APB, was scapegoated and replaced with ParcoursSup; but it seems that the new platform is even worse and more opaque, and will end up being a bureaucratic mess. The new system also adds an extra charge of work, but of course universities did not get any extra means to handle it.

And last but not least, the reform is being applied even before its final adoption (which sounds completely anticonstitutional, but eh…).

The French university suffers from under-funding, and there are simply not enough places for the number of students (we had a peak of births in the early 2000's). But building new universities is too trivial, and it costs money best spent on billionaires, so it's better to decrease the number of students with selection…

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

From Piketty's blog, whose article is eloquently called Budget 2018 : French youth sacrificed.


There has been demonstrations last month against selection, with some universities being blocked during days of protests, but it remained under control so far.

Simultaneousely, there is an ongoing reform of the baccalauréat, which will weaken its national status: continuous control will now count for 40% of the results, so the diploma will likely have a different value based on the standards of each establishment. The hidden interest is also budgetary: with the reform, there will be less hours, so fewer teachers will be needed… Ideal when you want to cut 120k jobs of public servants. No such thing as small profit!

Those two reforms go hand-in-hand to form an educational projet of organized shortage, increased concurrence and social reproduction—no need to precise whose children will be the winners and the losers after those changes are implemented. They will make our already elitist and unequal system even worse. Macron is burying school democratization.


Nursing homes

+ Show Spoiler +
On January 30, there was a national strike in the EHPAD (retirement homes with medical services) for the first time; there had been a lot of scattered strikes the previous year but no common movement. All trade unions, associations of pensioners and even the directors supported it. There is a general lack of means in the sector (and the government wanted to reform funding in a dumb way, which would have favored the private sector over the public one), and caregivers themselves talk of “institutional abuse” because they don't have enough time to properly deal with each patient.

They demand job creations to have decent caretakers/patients ratios (currently this ratio is 0.6:1, they ask for 1:1). Many caretakers are near burn-out territory, and there is a general unease in the profession due to the cadences, work accidents and the impossibility to do their job properly. According to official numbers, the mobilization rate for the day of strike was 32%, which is quite a lot.

The Minister of Health, some cold-hearted technocrat, answered concerns with a bunch of PR and did mostly nothing. The government promised 50 extra millions of euros, but that's only like 8 600€ per establishment, i.e. probably enough to hire 0.3 extra caretaker per nursing home… Trade unions found the sum derisory, and called for a new day of strike the 15/03 (same day as pensioners who protest against the CSG rise).


Hospitals

+ Show Spoiler +
Hospitals face the same problems: underfunding, not enough staff, etc. Austerity and the pressure for profitability had disastrous effects on the public service. A few public tribunes raised the alarm bell regarding the state of the French health system.

The government promised to launch a global reform before this summer. Its main communication element, so far, is that “30% of medical acts are useless”. Very promising…


Public servants

+ Show Spoiler +
A first day of strike had occurred on October 10 last year, gathering all trade unions. They were protesting against Macron's plan to cut 120k jobs, frozen wages, and the reintroduction of the jour de carence (when you're sick and take days off, you're not paid the first day; the pretext is to lower abstenteeism).

The government unveiled some its plans for the public sector in February: merit pay, contractualization (using very precarious people instead of hiring people for life…), merging staff representative structures and a voluntary departure plan to meet the goal of cutting 120k jobs. Macron has the very status of public servants in focus; he would probably love to terminate things such as lifetime employment, and overall wants to reduce costs on top of managing the public sector like the private one (he also wants to reduce the perimeter of the public sector). The government announced “one year of negotiations” to reform the public sector and should make more precise announcements in April. The three most combative trade unions denounced “fake negotiations” and boycott them so far.

7 out of 9 trade unions called for a day of strike the 22/03 to protest against all of this.


SNCF

+ Show Spoiler +
The highly symbolic dossier. On February 15, the Spinetta report—a series of recommendations by a former Air France boss to reform the SNCF—was published. The SNCF is our national state-owned railway company.

For the background, some major dysfunctions (no trains for hours in Paris because of technical issues) had received huge media attention in the last year, so the scene had already been set for some drama.

The government was to announce on February 26 the final decisions that they would make, following or not what the Spinetta report advised. One week before, the government's spokesman said that they were considering using executive orders (ordonnances) to pass the reform faster (they want it done before summer). Trade unions, who were already mad at Spinetta's recommendations, warned that this would be a casus belli.

Among others, the Spinetta report was advocating:

(1) Changing the legal status of the SNCF (opens the door to privatization in the future)
(2) Closing 9 000 kilometers (30% of the current network) of “small lines”
(3) End of the special status of railway workers (the current ones would not lose it, but new people would be hired with a standard work contract, less advantageous)
(4) End of their special pension scheme
(5) Accelerating the opening to concurrence (already asked by the EU)
(6) A plan of voluntary departures

Earlier this week, the government confirmed that they would use executive orders because “the matter is urgent” (apparently, the 9 millions of poor or people dying in the streets can wait, but not the SNCF). This has been interpreted as “cry havoc and let slip the dogs of wars” by trade unions, who are adamantly against further liberalization, don't want privatization and consider that the special status of railway workers is the compensation for the harshness of the job (flexible hours, night work, etc.) and goes along with the status of public service. All parties in the opposition criticized the use of executive orders, whether they are for (the right) or against the reform (the left, and partly the far-right).

The following 4 trade unions are representative at the SNCF (results from the 2015 elections):

(1) The CGT won with 34,3%
(2) The UNSA was second with 23,9%
(3) Sud-Rail arrived third with 16,8%
(4) CFDT got 15,2%

To situate things, from the most combative to the most compliant, let us say that the CGT is left, Sud-Rail is far-left, while the two other trade unions are rather “centrist”. But this time they're all united against the government's project, and quite mad. The CFDT, the most “moderate” of all four, even suggested a renewable strike as soon as possible, before the 22/03 strike that was called by the CGT and Sud-Rail. There are elections at the end of the year: perhaps it explains this renewed verbal “radicality”… That, and the unprecedented attack on the public service and their rights.

The Prime minister, who uses the most authoritarian method possible with executive orders (= unilateral decisions from the executive after a parody of parliamentarian debate), said that he uses decrees to “allow for dialogue”. War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, Ignorance is Strength. He said that the SNCF debt (46 billions of euros) was worrying, and that “people are paying more and more for a public service that works less and less”.

Strategically and wisely, the government dropped Spinetta's proposal to shut down small lines in rural areas. They knew that this decision would be wayyy too impopular, especially as Macron is seen as “the president of metropolises” (plus the right-wing opposition makes its speciality to “defend rurality”), and that local representatives would be mad. So the Prime minister said, “we're not going to close 9 000 kilometers from Paris”. Instead, he will let regions do the dirty job. Since they're financially asphyxiated and they will be the ones in charge of those small lines, it isn't hard to figure what will happen to those non-profitable lines…

The government also dodged a bit the debt issue—Spinetta was proposing for the State to take it back; said debt is due to political decisions and disastrous public-private partnerships to build high speed lines connecting Paris to other metropolises in province—and delayed the question of pensions. Instead, they focus on the status of railway workers. They indeed have a few advantages, back from when the company needed to attract workers: they can't be laid off for economic reasons, they can retire earlier + Show Spoiler +
52 years for drivers, 57 for other railway workers vs 62 for workers in general; but you still need 42 to 43 years of work to have the full pension, so unless you started driving trains at 9 years, you'll get a miserable pension if you retire at 52! A small “detail” that mainstream medias often fail to mention, go figure why…
and got a few other small advantages.

The day after those announcements, the SNCF's 2017 results were published: sales revenue increased (+4%) and the net benefit was multiplied by 2,3 to reach 1,3 billion. Ups! So much for the alarmist storytelling…

Despite martial declarations from trade unions (the CGT promised “one month of strike to make the government back down,” another warned that this could be the “harshest conflict in the history of the SNCF”), they agreed to participate to talks with the government and decided to wait the 14/03 to see the final project of executive orders (whose precise content is not known until it's published!). Then they will decide the 15/03 if they start a renewable strike or not. After the first reunion, trade unions said what everyone knows: that there are no real margins of discussion, the government already knows what he wants to do and will not deviate. Unsure if participating to those talks and awaiting is a tactival move from trade unions to appear open-minded after their warnings, or if they're just naïve/dumb.

The government's communication plan is going like this: they want to appear as the “courageous people who do what's necessary” to save the SNCF; they are the “modernist reformers” facing the “archaic/conservative trade unions” who “defend their unfair privileges”. Macron is, in fact, playing again Sarkozy's strategy in 2007-2010, when the attack on railway workers' pensions (workers were accused of being costly, selfish and privileged) had prepared the attack on the general scheme the later on. Macron wants to reform pensions too in 2019 (and change it to a points-based system).

He's also laying a trap by focusing the debate on the status of railway workers to zap the discussion on the public service railway (who will be turned into a profit-driven market) and territory planning; not to mention the ecological aberration that was the liberalization of rail-freight: now there are more trucks than ever conveying commodities on French roads. The government knows that special statutes are not popular in the opinion, after years of propaganda of portraying those who benefit from them as “privileged” who “are always on strike” and “take users hostage”.

According to Le Canard Enchaîné, Juppé [loser of the right-wing primary] declared: “The SNCF reform is the mother of all battles. If Macron succeeds, his road will be clear until the end of his term. The [right-wing] opposition will be forced to support him, because this is a reform the right has always dreamed about.”

I concur. Despite what the Prime minister said, even if they want to prepare the SNCF for the concurrence, there was no emergency; there are problems but the service is not collapsing. I suspect that Macron is pulling a Thatcher here, triggering a harsh conflict in front of everyone to emerge victorious and keep bulldozing. Like all right-wing brutes, Macron wants to defeat a working class stronghold. If one of the most combative sectors is defeated, then others will follow more easily.

Juppé also knows what he's talking about, since he got blocked by railway workers in 1995. Chirac had been elected on the “social fracture” theme, i.e. he had promised to tackle social inequalities (or so the opinion had understood it…). Then he named Juppé as a Prime minister, who launched an austerity plan (among others to obey to Maastricht's criterias… already the EU). Protests occurred, several weeks of strikes paralyzed Paris (railway workers thus played a key role) and Juppé was forced to withdraw his retirement reform.

The 1995 strikes were considered as the reawakening of the social movement (which had been fairly lethargic under Mitterrand), and contributed to the win of the left when Chirac dissolved the Assemblée in 1997. To this day, Juppé still has it somewhat bitter when he evokes 1995. Ironically, the current Prime minister is Juppé's protégé, and Macron is pretty much Juppé's younger self.

The memory of the 1995 strikes was not lost on the other side either. Some Twitter account of the CGT Railway Workers wrote: “With the executive orders, the government is declaring war upon us. We blew up Juppé in 1995, we'll blow up Philippe in 2018.” (Philippe is our Prime minister.)

Winning the battle of the opinion will be the recipe for success for both sides. In 1995, the public sector and railway workers were a bit like, you know, the heralds of the people who were angered at Chirac betraying his promises. In 2018, we will see if the strikes manage to resonate with the latent anger in the country at Macron's policies, and in particular his many attacks on the public service.




Two electoral tests

On the 4/03 and 11/03, two new by-elections occur, following the previous législatives partielles.

+ Show Spoiler +
So far, Macron's party lost in all elections. In September, they got far less senators than what they expected (somewhat normal given the voting method, but still); in 3 municipales, they did not even reach the second round; and they lost both législatives partielles last month (link above). For the two coming elections:

The 973-02 (which is an Overseas territory, in Guyane) election was very close in June 2017: the macronist won with only 57 votes (out of 12k votes) more than his challenger, a trade unionist marked as “left-wing regionalist” who had been a local figure of the 2017 social movement in Guyane. What changes with the reelection is that this guy is now supported by the FI (the main left-wing force, consistently considered the main opponent according to polls), and will join their group if he wins. Mélenchon had arrived first in the présidentielle in Guyane, with 24,72% of the votes (+5 points compared with the national average). Should the same duel occur in the second round, there is a decent chance that the FI gets a 18th député by beating a macronist, which would be considered a bad omen for the government and a contrario, an excellent symbol for the opposing left.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Results last June for the first 4 candidates.

REM = Macron (winner of the second round)
REG = The now FI-supported challenger
The third candidate was affiliated to some small party linked with the PS.


The 31-08 district is interesting because it's historically a left-wing constituency. The PS holds it without interruption since 1988 (the district was created in 1986). In 2012, the PS candidate even won right away in the first round with 51,6% of the votes. And when the PS lost 90% of its députés following Macron's election, the 31-08 elected one of the 30 PS survivors, winning with 91 more votes than his macronist rival (over 34k expressed votes).

Bad luck, the election was cancelled… and now the perspective of the reelection seems very uncertain for the former PS winner. In June 2017, he was “only” 1 600 votes ahead of the FI candidate out of 43.5k expressed votes; so if PS voters desert, or some switch to the FI, there is a possibility that he doesn't even reach the second round.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

Results last June for the first 5 candidates.

REM = Macron
SOC = PS (winner of the second round)
FN = far-right
FI = left
UDI = centre-right (allied with the right)


Mélenchon is taking very seriously those elections; he held a meeting in the 31-08, and is spending a whole week in the 973-02, even staying there until the results of the first round are announced. During the meeting, he said that he's hoping for a “thunderclap” in those “popular lands”.

On paper both districts look winnable for the FI, but they might run into the wall of differential abstention (the FI electorate is, among others, composed of lower classes and young people who demobilize far more easily), especially as the abstention in those by-elections can skyrocket to 70-80%, perhaps even 90% in Guyane…

At any rate, should Macron's party lose again those by-elections, it will make some noise.




The 22/03 day of strikes and demonstrations is coagulating to be a “protest against Macron's policy” day. It's initially a public sector protest, but railway workers joined it; students too; and pensioners plus some private sectors might join as well. Could be the start of something.

Perhaps the fate of Macron's term is at stake in the next following weeks/months. We will see if railway workers manage to derail Macron's train.

+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]

TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
March 04 2018 10:48 GMT
#21255
The SPD adherents approved the GroKo.

Registered: 463 723
Expressed: 363 494
Participation: 78,39 %
Yes: 239 604 (66,02 %)
No : 123 329 (33,98 %)

It was not even close lol.
sharkie
Profile Blog Joined April 2012
Austria18388 Posts
March 04 2018 11:02 GMT
#21256
seems like the bribes of Merkel (minister positions) worked wonders wow
TheDwf
Profile Joined November 2011
France19747 Posts
March 04 2018 11:05 GMT
#21257
On March 04 2018 20:02 sharkie wrote:
seems like the bribes of Merkel (minister positions) worked wonders wow

That, and probably the few polls putting the AfD over the SPD...
Banaora
Profile Joined May 2013
Germany234 Posts
March 04 2018 12:17 GMT
#21258
On March 04 2018 19:48 TheDwf wrote:
The SPD adherents approved the GroKo.

Registered: 463 723
Expressed: 363 494
Participation: 78,39 %
Yes: 239 604 (66,02 %)
No : 123 329 (33,98 %)

It was not even close lol.

The majority of SPD members is 60+. So I expected them to vote in favour of a coalition with Merkel. Especially as the mainstream media in Germany also were in favour of GroKo. The resistance mostly came from the party's youth organisation.
SoSexy
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
Italy3725 Posts
Last Edited: 2018-03-04 12:33:20
March 04 2018 12:32 GMT
#21259
Just casted my vote. I have to say the queue was SO long - I have never seen so many people vote in my town. I expect a very high participation rate.
Dating thread on TL LUL
Nebuchad
Profile Blog Joined December 2012
Switzerland12155 Posts
March 04 2018 12:37 GMT
#21260
On September 26 2017 06:53 sc-darkness wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 26 2017 06:36 Nebuchad wrote:
On September 26 2017 06:28 LegalLord wrote:
On September 26 2017 05:57 sc-darkness wrote:
On September 26 2017 05:35 Velr wrote:
Yeah, from a swiss viewpoint this whole "coalition" stuff seems, uhm, unnessesary.


But well, diffrent countries diffrent systems, we are all still around


So what's the ideal? Referendums?

Having a small, wealthy country that doesn't have issues of scale always is a huge boon.


With the presumption that we agree "direct" democracy is a good thing. Recognizing that we had good conditions to create a system that works well shouldn't be a freepass for not even trying. It's worth an attempt.


I'd not even consider Switzerland as an example of democracy. If you go have a referendum tomorrow: "Should everyone get an iPhone?", what do you think the result is going to be? Referendums only work if you limit them to highly educated people, and even that could fail. That's why we elect politicians to follow policies. Some fail, others succeed. Still better than relying on some random people to make the good decision.

Just as a recent example, you failed to match up pension age for both genders.


Just wanted to take this opportunity to say:

Get rekt No Billag
No will to live, no wish to die
Prev 1 1061 1062 1063 1064 1065 1413 Next
Please log in or register to reply.
Live Events Refresh
Next event in 5h 34m
[ Submit Event ]
Live Streams
Refresh
StarCraft 2
Nina 242
ProTech70
Ketroc 53
StarCraft: Brood War
Leta 561
Snow 89
Shine 57
Mind 41
Bale 3
PianO 0
Dota 2
monkeys_forever1205
Counter-Strike
Stewie2K1237
Super Smash Bros
Mew2King217
Other Games
summit1g10616
ViBE209
Maynarde83
SortOf74
NeuroSwarm34
Organizations
Other Games
gamesdonequick32671
StarCraft 2
Blizzard YouTube
StarCraft: Brood War
BSLTrovo
sctven
[ Show 18 non-featured ]
StarCraft 2
• Berry_CruncH392
• practicex 28
• OhrlRock 1
• Kozan
• AfreecaTV YouTube
• intothetv
• sooper7s
• IndyKCrew
• LaughNgamezSOOP
• Migwel
StarCraft: Brood War
• Azhi_Dahaki34
• Diggity6
• STPLYoutube
• ZZZeroYoutube
• BSLYoutube
League of Legends
• Lourlo1491
• Rush1374
• HappyZerGling96
Upcoming Events
Wardi Open
5h 34m
Replay Cast
18h 34m
Sparkling Tuna Cup
1d 4h
WardiTV European League
1d 10h
MaNa vs sebesdes
Mixu vs Fjant
ByuN vs HeRoMaRinE
ShoWTimE vs goblin
Gerald vs Babymarine
Krystianer vs YoungYakov
PiGosaur Monday
1d 18h
The PondCast
2 days
WardiTV European League
2 days
Jumy vs NightPhoenix
Percival vs Nicoract
ArT vs HiGhDrA
MaxPax vs Harstem
Scarlett vs Shameless
SKillous vs uThermal
uThermal 2v2 Circuit
2 days
Replay Cast
2 days
RSL Revival
3 days
ByuN vs SHIN
Clem vs Reynor
[ Show More ]
Replay Cast
3 days
RSL Revival
4 days
Classic vs Cure
FEL
4 days
RSL Revival
5 days
FEL
5 days
FEL
5 days
Sparkling Tuna Cup
6 days
RSL Revival
6 days
FEL
6 days
Liquipedia Results

Completed

BSL Season 20
HSC XXVII
Heroes 10 EU

Ongoing

JPL Season 2
BSL 2v2 Season 3
Acropolis #3
KCM Race Survival 2025 Season 2
CSL 17: 2025 SUMMER
Copa Latinoamericana 4
Jiahua Invitational
Championship of Russia 2025
RSL Revival: Season 1
Murky Cup #2
BLAST.tv Austin Major 2025
ESL Impact League Season 7
IEM Dallas 2025
PGL Astana 2025
Asian Champions League '25
BLAST Rivals Spring 2025
MESA Nomadic Masters
CCT Season 2 Global Finals
IEM Melbourne 2025

Upcoming

2025 ACS Season 2: Qualifier
CSLPRO Last Chance 2025
CSL Xiamen Invitational
2025 ACS Season 2
CSLPRO Chat StarLAN 3
K-Championship
uThermal 2v2 Main Event
SEL Season 2 Championship
FEL Cracov 2025
Esports World Cup 2025
StarSeries Fall 2025
FISSURE Playground #2
BLAST Open Fall 2025
BLAST Open Fall Qual
Esports World Cup 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall 2025
BLAST Bounty Fall Qual
IEM Cologne 2025
FISSURE Playground #1
TLPD

1. ByuN
2. TY
3. Dark
4. Solar
5. Stats
6. Nerchio
7. sOs
8. soO
9. INnoVation
10. Elazer
1. Rain
2. Flash
3. EffOrt
4. Last
5. Bisu
6. Soulkey
7. Mini
8. Sharp
Sidebar Settings...

Advertising | Privacy Policy | Terms Of Use | Contact Us

Original banner artwork: Jim Warren
The contents of this webpage are copyright © 2025 TLnet. All Rights Reserved.