EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 465
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9769 Posts
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxIIDzIWkAElivU.jpg:large) She's sticking to the current deal, trying to find out what people don't like and tweak elements of it without changing anything major. As if that's going to win her deal an extra 120 votes or whatever she needs. Its delusional and insane. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On January 18 2019 01:51 Longshank wrote: And at the same time you say he's been lying about his stance for three years straight in every speech and every interview? Seems a bit contradictory to me. Just answer me this, do you think he's honest when he demands that May takes no-deal Brexit off the table or is it just theater? Citation needed re: lying. I've always found him very consistent on this point. And yes I think he's honest about it. I don't believe he's ever advocated a no-deal Brexit because it's stupid for all the reasons we've discussed.. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
In the first place, that's not for her to decide so at best it could be an empty promise à la "we will try our best to avoid no deal" anyways. Like, if she says No-Deal is off the table, they then come together to compromise on what kind of deal would be able to make it through (because clearly they don't want Mays deal) and the EU just says no because it's another pipedream kind of deal that steps over the redlines the EU has given them to get enough support in the UK. What then. Seems silly to me. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9769 Posts
On January 18 2019 02:32 Toadesstern wrote: I honestly agree with May here that taking No-Deal off the table would be stupid. In the first place, that's not for her to decide so at best it could be an empty promise à la "we will try our best to avoid no deal" anyways. Like, if she says No-Deal is off the table, they then come together to compromise on what kind of deal would be able to make it through (because clearly they don't want Mays deal) and the EU just says no because it's another pipedream kind of deal that steps over the redlines the EU has given them to get enough support in the UK. What then. Seems silly to me. The problem is that May's own 'red lines' are the very things that have stopped her deal getting through Parliament, so instead of threatening the EU with No Deal, she is now threatening her own country with disaster. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
May wants to replace that default with the MayDeal. People again complain. So... regardless of how good or bad either is: WHAT should be the default? So just in case (pure hypothetically) somehow the great master negotiators do not manage to agree on a great new solution to the whole scenario... what should be the fallback? Because waiting forever, just in case (again pure hypothetically) no agreement is reached, until there is one, is not a viable path. PS: From a German satire online newspaper came the suggestion today, that it would be easier and faster, if the other 27 nations leave the EU and form a new Union. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18214 Posts
On January 18 2019 02:33 mahrgell wrote: People complain about NoDeal being the default. May wants to replace that default with the MayDeal. People again complain. So... regardless of how good or bad either is: WHAT should be the default? So just in case (pure hypothetically) somehow the great master negotiators do not manage to agree on a great new solution to the whole scenario... what should be the fallback? Because waiting forever, just in case (again pure hypothetically) no agreement is reached, until there is one, is not a viable path. PS: From a German satire online newspaper came the suggestion today, that it would be easier and faster, if the other 27 nations leave the EU and form a new Union. Clearly if she's floating a referendum, no-deal has to be one of the options in that referendum. Of course, with multiple options, it's unlikely anything gets a full majority immediately, so it either needs a second round, or it needs something like instant run-off (which is more complicated and might be confusing for people who have never encountered anything other than a simple ballot where you select a single option). | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On January 18 2019 02:33 mahrgell wrote: People complain about NoDeal being the default. May wants to replace that default with the MayDeal. People again complain. So... regardless of how good or bad either is: WHAT should be the default? So just in case (pure hypothetically) somehow the great master negotiators do not manage to agree on a great new solution to the whole scenario... what should be the fallback? Because waiting forever, just in case (again pure hypothetically) no agreement is reached, until there is one, is not a viable path. PS: From a German satire online newspaper came the suggestion today, that it would be easier and faster, if the other 27 nations leave the EU and form a new Union. Since you bring it up, I'm curious. How is coverage of the ongoing clusterfuck over in Germany? Are your news agencies pointing and laughing or still fighting the migraines to try and understand what's happening in parliament? | ||
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Longshank
1648 Posts
On January 18 2019 02:31 iamthedave wrote: Citation needed re: lying. I've always found him very consistent on this point. And yes I think he's honest about it. I don't believe he's ever advocated a no-deal Brexit because it's stupid for all the reasons we've discussed.. + Show Spoiler + On December 23 2018 04:33 iamthedave wrote: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu?fbclid=IwAR2qvR1DR20POzm5obHQsWK9cKfme_PVqw9LnhaAfHf0K3XpKlFv0GnTLHA He's a Brexiteer over the objections of his party. + Show Spoiler + On December 18 2018 23:09 iamthedave wrote:It's such a bizarre world when the Labour voters - who overwhelmingly support Corbyn - also overwhelmingly support staying in the EU, while Corbyn is a hard leave guy and Theresa May, who they hate, is a solid remainer. everything's topsy-turvy right now. and him saying the exact opposite: + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + Anyway, let's look at what getting no-deal off the table actually means in practice, if this is what he really wants. If no-deal no longer is the default then something else logically needs to take its place. The only options that I can see are a second referendum(which theoretically doesn't really work as a default since you'd need an extension from the EU) or revoking a50. Another deal can't very well be the default since that requires an agreement, especially now that May's deal is dead. Perhaps I missed an option but if not, this means you would need a miracle not to end up remaining. No remainer/2nd ref MP would vote for any Brexit deal if they get what they want by running down the clock. It would be the Tory backbench but reversed. | ||
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m4ini
4215 Posts
On January 18 2019 02:55 iamthedave wrote: Since you bring it up, I'm curious. How is coverage of the ongoing clusterfuck over in Germany? Are your news agencies pointing and laughing or still fighting the migraines to try and understand what's happening in parliament? Special broadcasts for the vote, full coverage. People loving Bercow and his "ODAAAR, ODAAAAR" shenanigans (www.welt.de). Also tweeted by state tv, but can't find it again. Generally, since i follow german news as much as british news, german news cover it pretty well and objective, for the most part. Small anecdote, was the first time my (71 year old) father saw a british "debate" on TV and the only thing he asked me is how on earth anything gets done in that clusterfuck of a shouting match. There is no general sentiment. You got the Generally speaking though, german media is very.. german. You get the stupid shit like Bild and other yellow press crap (basically Daily Mail, just less bad but still awful), and then you get "normal media" like n24/Welt, Focus, Spiegel etc - and they're pretty objective/neutral. They just report what's happening, the "giving an opinion" like it's happening in the UK isn't a thing. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On January 18 2019 02:55 iamthedave wrote: Since you bring it up, I'm curious. How is coverage of the ongoing clusterfuck over in Germany? Are your news agencies pointing and laughing or still fighting the migraines to try and understand what's happening in parliament? The topic is quite dominant in the German news cycle. Generally you usually see 3 kinds of reports on it. a) A very factual reporting on who couldn't agree on something this time. Especially since it is only about the UK internal arguments and not about a back and forth between Brussels and London those are really dry and neutral. Just stating the facts, not much else. b) Explanations for the German readers, of what is really happening here and what option are there left. Those are mostly simply ELI5 articles detailing the possible options (and why they all won't happen) c) personal opinion pieces on who did what wrong and what should be done: Those are highly diverse and contradicting. The blame is in 98% of the articles found in the UK, but e.g. Mays and the parliaments role is highly disputed. Similarly some say that a 2nd referendum would be the absolutely worst, others call it the only option. One noteworthy thing is, that I have hardly seen anyone here consider the MayDeal to be as problematic (for the Brits) as the Brits do. The tenor is mostly that the moaning about the backstop is unreasonable but people's minds on it probably won't be changed. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22085 Posts
This deal or no deal is the simple reality of no one else but May acting for 2 years. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On January 18 2019 03:25 mahrgell wrote: The topic is quite dominant in the German news cycle. Generally you usually see 3 kinds of reports on it. a) A very factual reporting on who couldn't agree on something this time. Especially since it is only about the UK internal arguments and not about a back and forth between Brussels and London those are really dry and neutral. Just stating the facts, not much else. b) Explanations for the German readers, of what is really happening here and what option are there left. Those are mostly simply ELI5 articles detailing the possible options (and why they all won't happen) c) personal opinion pieces on who did what wrong and what should be done: Those are highly diverse and contradicting. The blame is in 98% of the articles found in the UK, but e.g. Mays and the parliaments role is highly disputed. Similarly some say that a 2nd referendum would be the absolutely worst, others call it the only option. One noteworthy thing is, that I have hardly seen anyone here consider the MayDeal to be as problematic (for the Brits) as the Brits do. The tenor is mostly that the moaning about the backstop is unreasonable but people's minds on it probably won't be changed. Well I doubt the German press has quite the connection to the Irish problem as we do. b) is the one that interests me most. What's the German view on why all our options basically don't exist? Our media mostly tries to be semi-positive, but obviously your guys have more of a view from the EU perspective. Why does your media say extensions and the like are unlikely? Our options currently are dead in the water because we don't expect the EU to let us prevaricate any longer. | ||
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Velr
Switzerland10848 Posts
This isn't cherry picking, this is taking the whole cake - for free. The headlines in the last few days by a leftish paper (die Zeit): "May isn't ruling out hard brexit" - "France is preparing for hard/chaotic brexit" - "Tell us what you (the UK) actually want after brexit" - "The responsibility lies in London" - "Industry should prepare for hard/chaotic brexit".... + some blogs/stories/portraits about the british soul and the main brexiteers and various articles about how bad this will be and allready is for the economies of the UK and EU. In the comment section of german newspapers the sentiment is pretty much: Populist/Trumpist/Morons: Hard Brexit becaues fuck the EU/Brown people, go britain! Freedom! Others: Goodbye and thanks for all the fish. PS: You can/should still stay, if you behave like everyone else and a "sorry" certainly wouldn't hurt. You barely ever see anyone hoping that the EU would give even an Inch more to the UK. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On January 18 2019 20:59 Velr wrote: Whats there to gain by an extension? Why would the EU be interested in it? The UK has proven that its totally incapable of comming up with a deal that isn't putting the UK above actual EU members. This isn't cherry picking, this is taking the whole cake - for free. The headlines in the last few days by a leftish paper (die Zeit): "May isn't ruling out hard brexit" - "France is preparing for hard/chaotic brexit" - "Tell us what you (the UK) actually wants after brexit" - "The responsibility lies in London" - "Industry should prepare for hard/chaotic brexit".... + some blogs/stories/portraits about the british soul and the main brexiteers and various articles about how bad this will be and allready is for the economies of the UK and EU. In the comment section of german newspapers the sentiment is pretty much: Populist/Trumpist/Morons: Hard Brexit becaues fuck the EU/Brown people, go britain! Freedom! Others: Goodbye and thanks for all the fish. PS: You can/should still stay, if you behave like everyone else and a "sorry" certainly wouldn't hurt. You barely ever see anyone hoping that the EU would give even an Inch more to the UK. That's what I figured. What are the actual projections for the damage our leaving is going to do to the EU? | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22085 Posts
Not once have I heard what the opposition would do differently, never what they want. Just always that the current thing is not good. (Because want they want is impossible, if they even know what they want themselves) | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22212 Posts
On January 18 2019 20:59 Velr wrote: Whats there to gain by an extension? Why would the EU be interested in it? The UK has proven that its totally incapable of comming up with a deal that isn't putting the UK above actual EU members. This isn't cherry picking, this is taking the whole cake - for free. an extension gives time to sort out a second referendum and possible revocation of article 50. otherwise, there may not be the time to organise a referendum before the deadline. | ||
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Oukka
Finland1683 Posts
On January 18 2019 03:35 Gorsameth wrote: May can't change the deal because the EU won't renegotiate with 2 months to go. This deal or no deal is the simple reality of no one else but May acting for 2 years. I think the issue is more that EU doesn't see the point in renegotiating unless UK changes it's red lines. If they are committed to leaving the single market and staying outside the customs union the current deal is what they are getting and that is it. Obviously the question of the NI backstop is also a big issue, especially for the hard brexiteers but EU does not seem willing to budge in that at all. Also the demands that UK should be unilaterally be able to exit the backstop without any other arrangement that guarantees that the Good Friday agreement is not violated seems delusional to me. I understand that it feels like an infringement of sovereignty, but does UK really want to risk any chance of unrest in NI returning. I guess my underlying sentiment of the last 2 years is disgust at how short-sighted the whole process has been. Despite anything anyone on either of the main parties has said, it is still just about posturing for the next election, national interest is secondary at highest, sometimes it doesn't feel even quite that important. Also the process has underlined the issues with the UK government and constitution and national identity. The devolved administrations have been walked over, Northern Ireland is a mess and the underlying tensions are still not addressed. The two major parties are both undergoing an identity crisis where the internal party politics have taken over and they are unable or unwilling to actually address Brexit with realism. It would be interesting to follow this from outside but living in this mess makes one quite depressed. :D | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22085 Posts
Its the single biggest sign of the enormous amount of time wasted. | ||
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Banaora
Germany234 Posts
On January 18 2019 21:09 ahswtini wrote: an extension gives time to sort out a second referendum and possible revocation of article 50. otherwise, there may not be the time to organise a referendum before the deadline. If the reason for an extension is that the UK wants to hold another referendum on the exit deal this will probably be supported by the EU27. If the reason for an extension is to give parliament more time to debate the answer probably will be a no. One problem with an extension is the European parliament election in May 2019. | ||
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