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On November 15 2018 14:39 Belisarius wrote:
So how significant is May's “this deal, no deal or no Brexit” line?
People seem to be jumping up and down a bit about the presence of option 3.
Well that line is just stating the obvious seeing as there is no real time to change PM and negotiate a whole new deal. I suspect and hope we are heading for No Deal because her deal is a total capitulation to the EU giving up our sovereignty on nearly everything including Northern Ireland just to gain control over the border of GB and thats pretty much it even fishing rights are not clearly protected.
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On November 15 2018 16:14 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 14:39 Belisarius wrote:
So how significant is May's “this deal, no deal or no Brexit” line?
People seem to be jumping up and down a bit about the presence of option 3. Well that line is just stating the obvious seeing as there is no real time to change PM and negotiate a whole new deal. I suspect and hope we are heading for No Deal because her deal is a total capitulation to the EU giving up our sovereignty on nearly everything including Northern Ireland just to gain control over the border of GB and thats pretty much it even fishing rights are not clearly protected.
I hope, if this is the case, that the country can prepare itself properly for a no deal. Given the lack of organizational skills on display in these negotiations, if the same attitude is carried into a no deal situation there could be some nasty consequences.
I don't think we'll ever be ready for that to be honest.
On November 15 2018 08:36 KwarK wrote:
Corbyn is a good egg in a nation of bad politicians, but he’s caught between his convictions and his party. He doesn’t want to be the leader Labour and the country need him to be. He’s a dinosaur.
I agree with this. Unfortunately its led to Labour being paralyzed and impotent. They haven't even begun to tell the public what a Brexit under Labour would look like, how is anyone going to trust them to run the country?
I don't think anyone would. Corbz polling figures are utterly horrible at this point.
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Raab has resigned I think it’s finally all over for May but at least this deal. No way deal will pass if the brexit secretary won’t support it
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Why labour against this deal? This is as close to staying inside the eu as it can get. It looks like a decent deal with a lot of flexibility left. what comes now is probably way worse then this deal. Still hoping it will make it but it seems to be over.
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On November 15 2018 19:32 pmh wrote:
Why labour against this deal? This is as close to staying inside the eu as it can get. It looks like a decent deal with a lot of flexibility left. what comes now is probably way worse then this deal. Still hoping it will make it but it seems to be over.
Labour doesn't want to stay in the EU. Corbyn wants to leave the EU, but only on the condition that we leave in a way that protects worker's rights etc.
The tories would never leave in the way labour wants them to, so this was inevitable. Labour were always going to vote against whatever deal they were presented with by the tories.
It doesn't help that the tories set themselves impossible standards, and Labour are now holding them to those standards (Labour have 6 tests for any deal to pass - this deal probably fails them all).
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On November 15 2018 07:46 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 03:37 Plansix wrote:
So if you folks go through another general election right now, how bad is it looking for the UK? The main problem is that Brexit is not divided on party lines, except Lib Dems and SNP. Corbyn can’t run on being the sane anti Brexit voice of reason because he’s an Old Labour trade unionist man, he’s pro Brexit by inclination and against the neoliberal free trade union. He’s not the champion a lot of progressives want him to be, particularly the younger members of the party. Whereas the Tories, the historically pro EU party, got us here by essentially falling for a coup by UKIP in a high stakes blunder. They don’t want to Brexit but can’t see a good way out. They’re also deeply unpopular with a lot of remainers. The UK uses constituency simple plurality so third parties can’t fix this, they get fuck all representation. A general election won’t change anything because both parties are paralyzed by internal ideological divisions. There isn’t a party of remain vs a party of leave. There are two parties of “fuuuuucccckk”.
This man knows.
Nobody was ready for this because the people who campaigned for leave - Nigel Farage excluded because he doesn't give a fuck - expected that the Remainers would win handily. Cameron was the only one who really, really understood that this was a genuine threat, and its why when he was doing his concession speech Gove was nearby with a huge 'oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck' look on his face. Him and Johnson came up with great soundbites to win votes for a future election, not policy positions to deliver on Brexit.
Leaving was never a political reality because any sane politician who looked at our relationship knew there was no good way to get out of the EU. As Jock pointed out last week, the idea of these fabulous trade deals we can strike outside the EU are a fucking nightmare because we're completely beholden to our future trading partners who can get anything they want.
If the NHS gets opened up to foreign investment it'll be destroyed inside a decade, and functionally privatised in 20.
Nobody has anything positive to say because there's nothing positive to say. This is an ideological move. When challenged to put his faith behind Brexit on TV, Jacob Rees-Mogg refused, saying "It's a ridiculous question because we aren't going to know if it was good for another 50 years."
It's hope and pixie dust. .
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Gotta love that Raab was the first to resign.
You know, the guy that was actually supposed to get a deal, and didn't know the significance of the Calais/Dover route - something i, as a german, already knew 25 years ago when i visited the harbour (though to be fair, i was only interested because of the hovercraft obviously).
From top to bottom, this was a display of incompetence. Not just by May. Every single politician backing brexit is delusional. Not for wanting to leave, but for expecting everything to fall into place, EU to falter to their cherry picking, trade agreements just falling out of the sky (all of them great because obviously no one would take advantage) and generally, the sun rising over the new born empire. That "that'll do" mentality is absolute idiocy.
Not a single brexiteer put forward an actual plan to leave the EU. The entire time. They're all just screeching, literally, at any decision made. They're literally like Trump/Republicans screeching at Obamacare with no clue whatsoever as to how to deliver an alternative. "Nobody knew how hard this is". Except everyone apart from brexiteers did. It's just a ruse to get votes and support - screech at something people don't like, but don't put any actual work into coming up with something better. Brexiteers in a nutshell.
edit:
Best example.
I've just been speaking to Dominic Raab - he told the Chief Whip at end of Cabinet he was quitting, tells me the deal won't get through Parliament, and the EU have been 'blackmailing' us
"Blackmailing", not only does that guy not understand the importance of Calais/Dover, he also doesn't understand "being in a better negotiating position". It's not blackmailing if the bigger player (and lets be real, the EU is the bigger player) puts down red lines and sticks to them. It's not blackmailing if the EU says "we'll not compromise the entire EU trading system to accommodate wishful thinking of brexiteers with ambitions of grandeur".
But of course, someone has to be blamed here, and brexiteers will suck it up like Stormy Daniels in her best years.
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And as expected there is the 'its all the EU's fault' defense. I'd love him to offer specifics on the 'blackmail' but something tells me we will never see it.
The EU has been upfront for years that the 4 freedoms are not independently negotiable.
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So; from what I understood, what May got is essentially: "for unspecified time, everything goes on like before but the UK no longer has a say in EU matters"?
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On November 15 2018 21:16 TheDwf wrote:
So; from what I understood, what May got is essentially: "for unspecified time, everything goes on like before but the UK no longer has a say in EU matters"? I haven't found anything that actually makes concrete mention of what is in the agreement so I don't know but the basis of your statement was always going to happen. To sell your product on the EU market they need to meet EU regulations, and by leaving the EU you have no more say in what those regulations are.
Even a hard Brexit won't change that.
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On November 15 2018 21:28 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 21:16 TheDwf wrote:
So; from what I understood, what May got is essentially: "for unspecified time, everything goes on like before but the UK no longer has a say in EU matters"? I haven't found anything that actually makes concrete mention of what is in the agreement so I don't know but the basis of your statement was always going to happen. To sell your product on the EU market they need to meet EU regulations, and by leaving the EU you have no more say in what those regulations are. Even a hard Brexit won't change that.
The point is we shouldn’t be stuck on those regulations in Britain but this deal will keep us stuck to whatever the eu says
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On November 15 2018 21:36 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 21:28 Gorsameth wrote:On November 15 2018 21:16 TheDwf wrote:
So; from what I understood, what May got is essentially: "for unspecified time, everything goes on like before but the UK no longer has a say in EU matters"? I haven't found anything that actually makes concrete mention of what is in the agreement so I don't know but the basis of your statement was always going to happen. To sell your product on the EU market they need to meet EU regulations, and by leaving the EU you have no more say in what those regulations are. Even a hard Brexit won't change that. The point is we shouldn’t be stuck on those regulations in Britain but this deal will keep us stuck to whatever the eu says The only way to not be stuck on those regulations is to never trade with the EU again.
Good luck with that.
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On November 15 2018 21:36 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 21:28 Gorsameth wrote:On November 15 2018 21:16 TheDwf wrote:
So; from what I understood, what May got is essentially: "for unspecified time, everything goes on like before but the UK no longer has a say in EU matters"? I haven't found anything that actually makes concrete mention of what is in the agreement so I don't know but the basis of your statement was always going to happen. To sell your product on the EU market they need to meet EU regulations, and by leaving the EU you have no more say in what those regulations are. Even a hard Brexit won't change that. The point is we shouldn’t be stuck on those regulations in Britain but this deal will keep us stuck to whatever the eu says
I think the point that everyone is trying to make is that you have to have an alternative that doesn't screw everybody over. Leaving with no deal will be an absolute nightmare, especially under the tories. You can expect businesses to go down and poverty to skyrocket.
Since the Brexit vote there has been ample time to come up with a plan for some kind of middle ground, and May's plan is the best thing we're going to get, so really its a choice between that, absolute unmitigated disaster, and staying in the EU.
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I think the point that everyone is trying to make is that you have to have an alternative that doesn't screw everybody over.
No, that's not the point. I mean, of course you're correct, but the main point here is simply that brexiteers don't seem to understand what they're even arguing about.
He's complaining that the UK is stuck with EU regulations. Yeah no shit, if you want to trade on the free market, that's non-negotiable. It's the parade case of a brexiteer that wants all the cherries of the free market, but doesn't want to actually do anything for it.
That's the blackmailing. "I have to do shit to get access to one of the biggest trading markets in the world".
Of course, you can opt to get your chlorinated chicken etc on the table, at which point no poultry will be traded with the EU.
Like i don't understand the way a brexiteer thinks brexit is going to work.
edit: to make it as clear as possible: it's crashing out of the EU, it's this, or it's staying in the EU. These things were never negotiable and the EU was almost rudely up front with this. Not at any point in time they even gave the slightest hint that there's a possibility around this.
It was brexiteers (BoJo, Rees etc) who were arguing that these are merely suggestions.
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You guys don’t seem to understand, yes if we are selling something to the EU it should meet EU rules, there is no reason once we leave the EU if I’m selling something from London to Birmingham it should have to follow EU rules.
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On November 15 2018 22:28 Zaros wrote:
You guys don’t seem to understand, yes if we are selling something to the EU it should meet EU rules, there is no reason once we leave the EU if I’m selling something from London to Birmingham it should have to follow EU rules.
Unless you count the fact that they are good rules (in general).
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On November 15 2018 22:29 Jockmcplop wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 22:28 Zaros wrote:
You guys don’t seem to understand, yes if we are selling something to the EU it should meet EU rules, there is no reason once we leave the EU if I’m selling something from London to Birmingham it should have to follow EU rules. Unless you count the fact that they are good rules (in general).
That’s a different argument though we shouldn’t be bound to EU rules we should choose if we want them or not
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On November 15 2018 22:32 Zaros wrote:Show nested quote +On November 15 2018 22:29 Jockmcplop wrote:On November 15 2018 22:28 Zaros wrote:
You guys don’t seem to understand, yes if we are selling something to the EU it should meet EU rules, there is no reason once we leave the EU if I’m selling something from London to Birmingham it should have to follow EU rules. Unless you count the fact that they are good rules (in general). That’s a different argument though we shouldn’t be bound to EU rules we should choose if we want them or not
The problem is that refusing to agree to them has all sorts of consequences that we don't want. Sure, it might not be a nice position to be in, but its the reality. We agree to these rules or we're screwed. The only people who have ever claimed that this isn't the case were either lying or criminally uninformed.
This is what those people who campaigned for Remain were saying, but they got told it was scaremongering.
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On November 15 2018 22:28 Zaros wrote:
You guys don’t seem to understand, yes if we are selling something to the EU it should meet EU rules, there is no reason once we leave the EU if I’m selling something from London to Birmingham it should have to follow EU rules.
You don't have to follow the rules once you leave the single market. But then there would be tariffs, of course.
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On November 15 2018 22:28 Zaros wrote:
You guys don’t seem to understand, yes if we are selling something to the EU it should meet EU rules, there is no reason once we leave the EU if I’m selling something from London to Birmingham it should have to follow EU rules.
You do understand how difficult and expensive that would be for any company selling anything else than a service confined to UK right?
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EPT
