EPTIt seems the UK has nothing to give the EU and at the same time won't back down on other stuff... So seriously, what is there to negotiate?
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schaf
Germany1326 Posts
It seems the UK has nothing to give the EU and at the same time won't back down on other stuff... So seriously, what is there to negotiate? | ||
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Sirion
131 Posts
On September 21 2018 22:23 kollin wrote: Parliament gets debate time in the case of a no deal looking likely under the EU Withdrawal Act - I can't see May surviving a confidence vote should it come to this. But parliament voting on or modifying the EU Withdrawal Act does not change the fact that there will be no deal. Even if parliament does not pass the EU Withdrawal Act the UK will still leave the EU on March 29. So what options are there? Can parliament unilaterally revoke the Article 50 notification? Not clear, and I don't see this happening anyway. Will May be replaced by a new Tory PM? Perhaps, but I don't think so, not before Brexit. All the ERG MPs around JRM and Boris Johnson want a no deal Brexit. Is there a moderate Tory who could unite the Tories behind him/her in a plan to avoid a hard Brexit? Of course after Brexit May will be replaced so that she carries all the blame. And snap elections could happen. But with current polls that might lead to a Corbyn government, so why would the Tories do that? What remains is the only way out: A second referendum, no deal vs. cancel Brexit. And there is a lot of noise that such a referendum would be undemocratic and against the will of the people. So I predict no deal with 90% chance, and 10% shared for all these possible maybes. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9674 Posts
On September 21 2018 22:51 Sirion wrote: But parliament voting on or modifying the EU Withdrawal Act does not change the fact that there will be no deal. Even if parliament does not pass the EU Withdrawal Act the UK will still leave the EU on March 29. So what options are there? Can parliament unilaterally revoke the Article 50 notification? Not clear, and I don't see this happening anyway. Will May be replaced by a new Tory PM? Perhaps, but I don't think so, not before Brexit. All the ERG MPs around JRM and Boris Johnson want a no deal Brexit. Is there a moderate Tory who could unite the Tories behind him/her in a plan to avoid a hard Brexit? Of course after Brexit May will be replaced so that she carries all the blame. And snap elections could happen. But with current polls that might lead to a Corbyn government, so why would the Tories do that? What remains is the only way out: A second referendum, no deal vs. cancel Brexit. And there is a lot of noise that such a referendum would be undemocratic and against the will of the people. So I predict no deal with 90% chance, and 10% shared for all these possible maybes. Some Scottish MEPs are actually trying to explore whether the UK can unilaterally halt Brexit if it comes to that. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/sep/21/article-50-european-court-of-justice A legal action to establish whether the UK can unilaterally stop Brexit has been referred to the European court of justice by the court of session in Edinburgh. The case was brought by a cross-party group of six Scottish MPs, MEPs and MSPs, who want the ECJ to offer a definitive ruling on whether the UK can halt the article 50 process without needing the approval of all other 27 EU member states. Today’s ruling shows the triggering of article 50 can be reversed | Jolyon Maugham Read more Rejecting the argument put forward by lawyers for the UK government, that ministers have repeatedly made it clear they have no intention of stopping the Brexit process, even if there were no deal with the EU, Scotland’s most senior judge, Lord Carloway, said: “It seems neither academic nor premature to ask whether it is legally competent to revoke the notification and thus to remain in the EU.” Carloway, one of three judges to consider the case on appeal after it was initially rejected in June as “academic and hypothetical”, noted that the Commons would be required to vote on whether to ratify any Brexit deal before 29 March 2019, “a date which is looming up”, and that a judgment from the ECJ would “have the effect of clarifying the options open to MPs in the lead-up to what is now an inevitable vote”. | ||
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kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
On September 21 2018 22:51 Sirion wrote: But parliament voting on or modifying the EU Withdrawal Act does not change the fact that there will be no deal. Even if parliament does not pass the EU Withdrawal Act the UK will still leave the EU on March 29. So what options are there? Can parliament unilaterally revoke the Article 50 notification? Not clear, and I don't see this happening anyway. Will May be replaced by a new Tory PM? Perhaps, but I don't think so, not before Brexit. All the ERG MPs around JRM and Boris Johnson want a no deal Brexit. Is there a moderate Tory who could unite the Tories behind him/her in a plan to avoid a hard Brexit? Of course after Brexit May will be replaced so that she carries all the blame. And snap elections could happen. But with current polls that might lead to a Corbyn government, so why would the Tories do that? What remains is the only way out: A second referendum, no deal vs. cancel Brexit. And there is a lot of noise that such a referendum would be undemocratic and against the will of the people. So I predict no deal with 90% chance, and 10% shared for all these possible maybes. Enough tories would get behind an election because the one scenario in which they definitely get eviscerated electorally is in the case of a Tory-led no deal. I don't see MPs being willing to destroy their political careers over this because the risk of a Corbyn government is too terrifying. Presuming the EU doesn't want a no-deal, I think they'll be accommodating over requests to extend the negotiation time if they perceive an outcome in which a realistic deal can be achieved. There's an extremely conceivable way out of this quagmire that doesn't involve the unedifying spectacle of another referendum, and it relies on a little bit of faith in Britain's institutions and the good sense of the EU. While I completely understand your lack of faith in both of these, and I think I could be proved entirely wrong, I just can't see MPs not realising that a common denominator for a good 450+ of them is an EEA agreement by 2019ish, and then either Canada model or a continuation of Norway negotiated in the transitory period. | ||
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Toadesstern
Germany16350 Posts
On September 21 2018 20:46 kollin wrote: I think if the EU feels the UK is seriously committed to avoiding no deal, then they'll grant an extension. My confidence that there won't be a no deal situation is, ultimately, due to my faith both in Parliament voting to avoid it as well as the EU being flexible. I'm less confident about the latter of these than the former, in all honesty though. [...] yeah, I feel like if some kind of new election broke out the EU would give an extension pretty much no matter what. So in a way I might even go a bit further than you on that. That being said, I don't see the proposal the EU will bring to the table being anything different than an already existing deal with some minor changes. Be it Norway, Switzerland or Canada. Those, will all be rejected by May because she wants it Norway style while having the commitments that Canada has. So with that being said, I don't get the feeling that the EU is out for new elections in the UK at all or that it's trying to humiliate the UK in some way. It's just that your government (broadly speaking) will get something along those lines. There surely will be changes here and there to make it a unique deal for the UK (if there will be a deal) but giving out a Canada++Deal is pretty hard to imagine for me. And tbh, I genuinly think that May doesn't understand that issue. The idea that the EU would give the UK some fairly good deal because it would be economically beneficial to both sides to have trade as free as possible, even without a membership or commitments that rival one. This is essentially where the two sides don't see eye-to-eye in my mind. The british idea that this is about getting the best possible solution for everyone involved. While, from an EU point of view I feel much more like it's about making sure it's something that will hurt as little as possible, both economically but also from an EU-project point of view. Sure it might be economically good for german car manufacturers to have free trade with the UK even if the UK doesn't pay a single cent into the EU budget. But if that endangers the EU as a whole that's obviously a no-go, not because there's an idea that the UK needs to be punished or humilated but simply to make sure any UK deal would be in line with already existing deals like the Canada or Norway one, and not be significantly better because "both sides would benefit economically", even if that may be the case. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
I dont think she could survive politically going for Norway even if it was temporary she would lose half of her cabinet even some remain supporting MPs such as Sajid Javid and half the party would call a vote of no confidence just because of Free Movement and very little sovereignty regained. The referendum on brexit is a load of bull, and legally now cannot be implemented in time for March. The Process of legally authorizing a referendum and organizing it would take us post the legal brexit date and too late to cancel artical 50. Not to mention all the possible parliamentary delays from the Lords trying to fix the question in favour of remain and sending the legislation back all the time, you could end up with a whole year of delays just to use the Parliament act and bypass the Lords. The most likely option in my opinion to happen is we have a blind brexit with no future relationship agreed just some fudged principles and declarations on the Irish Border and EU single market and that the detail of the relationship will be negotiated over the next 2 year period. May would then be forced out after legal brexit day and a new PM would work out the future relationship. Otherwise its a proper no deal chaotic or organised. | ||
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pmh
1352 Posts
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m4ini
4215 Posts
"We want out of the EU" - "Okay, bye" "Yeah but we want to be in the single market still" - "Nah, not gonna ever happen, you leave the EU, you leave the market - that's nonnegotiable" "Okay, here's our plan then that includes basically access to the single market, just a little different - also we don't have any idea how ireland's gonna work out but yeah" - "Nah, no access to single market" "Damn fuck, disrespectful dirtbags, better make us a counter offer after we gave up I mean.. I do live in the UK, and the scariest part is, this utterly obvious "strategy" seems to work. There's no effort of the UK to actually make a deal happen, they don't even know what they want - apart from the cherries, of course. To me it looks very much like they already know that no deal is going to happen, everything now is simply damage control to be able to blame the EU for not securing a deal. I constantly hear here how ass the EU is for treating the UK "like this", while not actually realising that the UK, so far, has done absolutely nothing to actually get closer to a deal. Not even the payment is agreed on, as was made clear multiple times. It's ridiculous. The EU laid out the rules: no access to single market without four freedoms. Everything the UK is doing (literally!) is trying to get access to the single market, but not accept any rules in return. It's kinda funny how the UK made very clear that a hard border for ireland is not going to happen (which is absolutely fine and in their rights) but start crying like little pissants when your negotiating partner does the same thing for his red lines. Drop the pathetic attempts to sneak access to the single market in, and you'll see how fast an agreement will be reached (i know that it's still not easy, but at least possible - where the UK currently is just chasing a pipe dream). | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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TheDwf
France19747 Posts
On November 15 2018 03:37 Plansix wrote: So if you folks go through another general election right now, how bad is it looking for the UK? Fear not, Corbyn is there | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On November 15 2018 03:37 Plansix wrote: So if you folks go through another general election right now, how bad is it looking for the UK? depends on the result but its more likely May is replaced by a leader with DUP backing than a general election. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands21767 Posts
Would make 0 sense to kick May out now after all this time has already passed and with almost no time left to negotiate with the EU. | ||
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Artisreal
Germany9235 Posts
Having no answer to the big question but vehemently denying that other ways may be the right to wander on will not have them in a good light if they're going to block any Brexit agreement that is accepted by the EU but doesn't check all their boxes. | ||
KwarK
United States42921 Posts
On November 15 2018 03:37 Plansix wrote: So if you folks go through another general election right now, how bad is it looking for the UK? The main problem is that Brexit is not divided on party lines, except Lib Dems and SNP. Corbyn can’t run on being the sane anti Brexit voice of reason because he’s an Old Labour trade unionist man, he’s pro Brexit by inclination and against the neoliberal free trade union. He’s not the champion a lot of progressives want him to be, particularly the younger members of the party. Whereas the Tories, the historically pro EU party, got us here by essentially falling for a coup by UKIP in a high stakes blunder. They don’t want to Brexit but can’t see a good way out. They’re also deeply unpopular with a lot of remainers. The UK uses constituency simple plurality so third parties can’t fix this, they get fuck all representation. A general election won’t change anything because both parties are paralyzed by internal ideological divisions. There isn’t a party of remain vs a party of leave. There are two parties of “fuuuuucccckk”. | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9674 Posts
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KwarK
United States42921 Posts
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kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
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Belisarius
Australia6231 Posts
People seem to be jumping up and down a bit about the presence of option 3. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
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