EPTUK Politics Mega-thread - Page 426
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kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
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sc-darkness
856 Posts
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On June 24 2018 04:13 sc-darkness wrote: 2 years since the referendum which led to Brexit. Are there any notable documentaries/shows to mark the day? Why would there be? It's still ongoing. As far as I'm aware the public opinion remains about the same. Everyone who voted what they voted are happy they voted it. But everyone's angry about how it's being handled. Don't mistake anger at the process for anger about the result. A lot of Brexiteers now are mostly angry that their vision of Brexit isn't happening, and feel the government is being two-faced and/or cowardly. Support for a (suicidal) 'hard Brexit' seems to be growing among that crowd. I'm delighted to say they'll be disappointed, and look forward to their anguished whinging. | ||
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Gorsameth
Netherlands22088 Posts
On June 24 2018 04:28 iamthedave wrote: I don't expect the leave portion to have regrets until the exit actually happens and any potential economic impact happens.Why would there be? It's still ongoing. As far as I'm aware the public opinion remains about the same. Everyone who voted what they voted are happy they voted it. But everyone's angry about how it's being handled. Don't mistake anger at the process for anger about the result. A lot of Brexiteers now are mostly angry that their vision of Brexit isn't happening, and feel the government is being two-faced and/or cowardly. Support for a (suicidal) 'hard Brexit' seems to be growing among that crowd. I'm delighted to say they'll be disappointed, and look forward to their anguished whinging. People tend not to realize the consequence of their actions until they feel it in their wallet. | ||
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mahrgell
Germany3943 Posts
On June 24 2018 04:32 Gorsameth wrote: I don't expect the leave portion to have regrets until the exit actually happens and any potential economic impact happens. People tend not to realize the consequence of their actions until they feel it in their wallet. But then someone else will be blamed.  | ||
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kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
On June 24 2018 04:13 sc-darkness wrote: 2 years since the referendum which led to Brexit. Are there any notable documentaries/shows to mark the day? I think either BBC or channel 4 is replaying their night time/early morning coverage of the vote during the day tomorrow | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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KwarK
United States43567 Posts
The facts are established, what matters is how the facts are weighted which is completely subjective. If you listen to an hour of complaints about sovereignty but you don’t care about any of that then you’ll decide it was a biased documentary, simply because the weighting of the importance of facts didn’t match your own opinion. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 24 2018 06:27 KwarK wrote: It’s hard not to make a biased documentary about Brexit. If you care about sovereignty then it’s objectively a good idea, regardless of everything else. If you care about the economy, trade, peace in Northern Ireland, Britain’s place in the world, the continued union with Scotland, or basically anything else, then its objectively a terrible idea. The facts are established, what matters is how the facts are weighted which is completely subjective. If you listen to an hour of complaints about sovereignty but you don’t care about any of that then you’ll decide it was a biased documentary, simply because the weighting of the importance of facts didn’t match your own opinion. Well I don't agree, Brexit doesn't have to damage the economy and reduce trade, the EU is a massively protectionist organisation leaving it allows more trade if you want it and that will benefit the economy. I don't really understand why the border cant (at least going into Northern Ireland which is the only bit the UK can control) be left as it is. UK government already trusts Ireland with the border to the outside world to keep out terrorists etc. and just take the hit on any smuggling you can always catch people after they cross. | ||
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KwarK
United States43567 Posts
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kollin
United Kingdom8380 Posts
On June 24 2018 06:41 Zaros wrote: Well I don't agree, Brexit doesn't have to damage the economy and reduce trade, the EU is a massively protectionist organisation leaving it allows more trade if you want it and that will benefit the economy. I don't really understand why the border cant (at least going into Northern Ireland which is the only bit the UK can control) be left as it is. UK government already trusts Ireland with the border to the outside world to keep out terrorists etc. and just take the hit on any smuggling you can always catch people after they cross. The DUP opposes an open border because it would give Northern Ireland a different status relative to the EU than the rest of the UK. The Good Friday Agreement is built on UK membership of the EU, and isn't workable without it. | ||
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maybenexttime
Poland5753 Posts
On June 24 2018 06:52 KwarK wrote: If the EU is protectionist and the EU is where we do almost all of our trade then leaving it will make us the people it is protectionist against. You can’t have it both ways. Either it’s a barrier to trade, in which case it’s about to be a barrier against us, or it facilitates our trade, in which case we shouldn’t leave it. Not to mention the fact that leaving a large bloc like the EU will only weaken the UK's position in trade negotiations with other countries, as far as I can tell. And sovereignty goes only as far as the leverage you have as a country allows you to exert it. If the UK stays in the single market, it'll still have to apply all the EU regulations, but from now on without having any say in shaping them. I have yet to see a pro-Brexit argument that did not rely either on emotions or wishful thinking. | ||
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sc-darkness
856 Posts
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
On June 24 2018 06:52 KwarK wrote: If the EU is protectionist and the EU is where we do almost all of our trade then leaving it will make us the people it is protectionist against. You can’t have it both ways. Either it’s a barrier to trade, in which case it’s about to be a barrier against us, or it facilitates our trade, in which case we shouldn’t leave it. We don't do almost all of our trade with the EU we do less than half I believe, the EU is a barrier to trade outside of Europe. It would be much easier for us to negotiate deals with other countries without having to take into account every concern of 27 other countries and their vested interests. We don't even have to do trade deals we could unilaterally remove all tariffs which I believe the IEA are proposing to massively reduce consumer costs and encourage others to do the same, or at least on ours but I guess in the current climate there is little incentive to do that unless they can see its a big boon to the economy. The EU might be protectionist against us and I think much of it depends on any deal that can be arranged and what parts of the EU get the greater say. With a weak German government it is probably more likely the EU will be protectionist with us, but it won't be the end of the world if it is. | ||
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On June 24 2018 08:51 Zaros wrote: We don't do almost all of our trade with the EU we do less than half I believe, the EU is a barrier to trade outside of Europe. It would be much easier for us to negotiate deals with other countries without having to take into account every concern of 27 other countries and their vested interests. We don't even have to do trade deals we could unilaterally remove all tariffs which I believe the IEA are proposing to massively reduce consumer costs and encourage others to do the same, or at least on ours but I guess in the current climate there is little incentive to do that unless they can see its a big boon to the economy. The EU might be protectionist against us and I think much of it depends on any deal that can be arranged and what parts of the EU get the greater say. With a weak German government it is probably more likely the EU will be protectionist with us, but it won't be the end of the world if it is. 43% of trade as per this source; https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ So indeed, a bit less than half. Although why you think fucking over almost half of our trade is a positive escapes me... The whole strain of argument along the lines of making great deals outside the EU has been shaky from the get go. Who are these partners we can do great deals with that we couldn't with the EU? How are we supposed to do these great deals with them without becoming thralled to them? We'll be contending with bigger, stronger economies that need us a hell of a lot less than we'll need them. By my accounting the only people we could do deals with that we don't already are people we wouldn't want to do deals with. I'm talking Russia - which could be profitable but has potential downsides - and China, who are somewhat adversarial with the EU. The problem is we'll be negotiating with both from a position of weakness. We've already seen rumblings of what that means when Trump suggested he'd go hard on us a while ago. We'll be the little man of the world, with very little real power or means to leverage good deals out of anybody, having to tiptoe around and never make waves because if they want to punish us we'll have to eat up our punishment like a good little client state and ask for more. This should have been obvious when we went into Brexit negotiations all gung-ho and making demands, and they simply said 'no'. And that was the end of it. We had a sweet spot in the EU, we had a privileged position, with a ton of special exemptions and voting power. The idea that they'd simply let us walk out and be nice was fantasy from day one. The other problem with that strain of argument is... do you have any idea how complex trade negotiations actually are? You say the EU is a 'barrier' to trade negotiations, if anything it's a massive benefit, because the EU simplified a ton of things. The EU's single market is essentially a 'slap it down' list of pre-requisites. If you want to trade, you must do this this and this, and we can talk about the rest. That cuts out a ton of time. Going forward, we'll have to be negotiating every single little detail. I mean, I agree. We'll be alright in the end. But this is going to suck. Badly. We've permanently kneecapped Britain as a meaningful power on the world stage. The only relevance we'll have going forward is how much we agree with the bigger power we're friends with. I wish more Brexiteers didn't sound so politically naive when they talk about what it'll be like once we've left. I'd find it all much more palatable if they knew and accepted we're in for a rough ride but consider it worthwhile. A lot of them seem to think the EU is some demonic force preventing us from achieving our true destiny, or something, and we'll burst onto the world stage free of its shackles, muscles a-gleam, and everyone will bow before their rightful kings and give us all their money. The EU has every reason to fuck us over to make sure nobody else gets curious about leaving, and the EU is a more valuable trading partner to literally everyone than we could be on our best day. Our biggest bet is probably doing deals with developing economies and upcoming tiger economies, but who knows how that'll work out? | ||
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Jockmcplop
United Kingdom9769 Posts
This is a very long article, but its mindblowing. The idea is that Farage and his friends used Brexit as one of the biggest financial heists in the history of UK politics and banking. There's no small part of the article I can use to summarize, but its certainly worth a read. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
But that whole thing is wild and something I wouldn't have believed 2 years ago. But now, anything is possible. + Show Spoiler + We need to stop anything from being possible as soon as possible. This was not the cyberpunk dystopia I was promised. It is way to stupid. | ||
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Zaros
United Kingdom3692 Posts
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
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iamthedave
England2814 Posts
On June 27 2018 09:10 Plansix wrote: Um...the people running political campaigns shouldn’t not be involved with monetary speculation on the outcome. That is like professional athletes betting on their games. It taints the process to its core. Yeah, obviously, but Farage has been dodgy for ages and he's teflon. Also now irrelevant. As far as I know what he's accused of doing there is in fact illegal, but proving it borders on impossible. Even if you had cast iron evidence that he knew from his pollster buddies there's no way of proving that he believed Leave would be the outcome; making his brace of concession speeches the honest feelings of a guy surprised to have done even that much. Not to mention that if you take that angle he can argue persuasively that winning the campaign ended his political career, where losing it would have probably made UKIP the second most powerful party in the UK after another four years, given how quickly they were gobbling up Tory voters at that point. In other words it's a bigger story to people outside the UK at this point. For us, the arsehole goblin won his day, and the price is the end of his public career. | ||
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