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KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42830 Posts
June 14 2017 18:05 GMT
#7181
The Lib Dems need an opportunity to define the soul of the party and a leader to represent that. Someone to carry the torch of Roy Jenkins and the late Charles Kennedy. In the 80s the Lib Dems were the party of the moderates, opposed to both Thatcherism and Bennism but in the 90s they lost their identity as New Labour somewhat stole their ground. Then in the 00s Charles Kennedy staked the party as the heart of the Iraq opposition and lived long enough to see himself wholly vindicated, the ethical centre willing to stand against both Labour and the Conservatives on issues such as university tuition, military adventurism, environmentalism and so forth. And again in the 10s that was somewhat lost, it wasn't entirely clear what it was the Lib Dems really stood for, the university tuition being overweighted in importance because they were mistakenly defined by that one issue.

It's possible that as the only party willing to take a stance against Brexit, despite the referendum, they can again recover that kind of moral core and again define themselves as a party worth voting for. But they need the kind of leader who can embody what the party is about and carry the torch. It's tough. For all his personal struggles Charles Kennedy was a transparently honest and moral man.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
June 14 2017 18:39 GMT
#7182
Or its just a well orchestrated coup by Jo Swinson and Vince Cable to fight for the leadership but that is just the Cynic in me. The Lib Dem shadow home secretary resigned in protest at Tim earlier today which has set all of this off.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-14 18:50:51
June 14 2017 18:50 GMT
#7183
I don't understand why they are interested in Brexit in the first place. What is liberal or democratic about distant unaccountable government? If they had just focused on the liberal policies I would have voted for them this time around because I thought the other parties both performed terribly, whereas I thought they were offering some interesting ideas.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42830 Posts
June 14 2017 18:54 GMT
#7184
On June 15 2017 03:50 bardtown wrote:
I don't understand why they are interested in Brexit in the first place. What is liberal or democratic about distant unaccountable government? If they had just focused on the liberal policies I would have voted for them this time around because I thought the other parties both performed terribly, whereas I thought they were offering some interesting ideas.

You understand that for many in the UK the Westminster Parliament is no less distant or unaccountable than the EU Parliament, right? That Scotland is essentially marginalized, voting the opposite way to the rest of the country over and over and getting overruled. And that FPTP is pretty undemocratic while the EU regional list system is actually quite democratic.

As for liberal, the EU is a classically liberal organisation. Free trade, free movement of people and so forth are liberal ideas.

But it is not my intent to get into an argument about the benefits of the EU. My point is that the Lib Dems need a big idea and a leader who can articulately and intelligently make the case for it. Europe may be that but they whatever they end up using, they need something.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
Last Edited: 2017-06-14 19:27:25
June 14 2017 19:22 GMT
#7185
Even if Westminster was as distant as the EU (which I don't believe that it is), that does not mean the solution is more big government. More likely the solution is more devolved government, like Scotland has managed to secure. They don't always vote against the grain, either. Until recently they were just like any other Labour region, and they might be heading back that way. As for the EU being liberal - maybe within its own boundaries, to a certain extent. It's also protectionist in many areas and is very overt in its redistributing of wealth across the continent. On top of that, their interventions against 'hate speech' and 'fake news' should concern any liberal.

I sort of agree that the LDs need a big idea, but I really don't think Europe can be it. They should stop being so moderate and throw out some really liberal policies. With a convincing leader they could do surprisingly well on that kind of basis, I think. It's a little awkward that as the country is becoming more socially liberal it is becoming less economically liberal, though. Although no party is offering a combination of the two, so you never know.
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
June 14 2017 23:19 GMT
#7186
On June 15 2017 04:22 bardtown wrote:
Even if Westminster was as distant as the EU (which I don't believe that it is), that does not mean the solution is more big government. More likely the solution is more devolved government, like Scotland has managed to secure. They don't always vote against the grain, either. Until recently they were just like any other Labour region, and they might be heading back that way. As for the EU being liberal - maybe within its own boundaries, to a certain extent. It's also protectionist in many areas and is very overt in its redistributing of wealth across the continent. On top of that, their interventions against 'hate speech' and 'fake news' should concern any liberal.

I sort of agree that the LDs need a big idea, but I really don't think Europe can be it. They should stop being so moderate and throw out some really liberal policies. With a convincing leader they could do surprisingly well on that kind of basis, I think. It's a little awkward that as the country is becoming more socially liberal it is becoming less economically liberal, though. Although no party is offering a combination of the two, so you never know.


[image loading]

If you see any weirdness it's because it's a composite image - Google maps itself didn't do quite what I wanted it to do. The numbers are accurate though.

If anyone is looking for a sane Brexit then pray for another election. John McDonnell was giving a fairly reasonable position on Channel 4s alternative election night but I can the moment just afterwards...



As I remember it he was being pretty cagey, but one thing that was forefront was doing a deal for more time which - given the size and complexity and number of issues - is absolutely sane. The Tories have been and are going to continue to play for the papers and their back bench - oh and the (shudder) DUP now. We pretty much know the plan after they've mucked about looking for votes, they've told us what it is. Hard Brexit followed by a race to the bottom on tax, worker protection and the environment. It's going to be hog heaven for the wankers doing the deals and eat shit for everyone else.
But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
June 14 2017 23:42 GMT
#7187
Facepalm... we're not talking about geographical distance here, and even if we were you've made some mistake when you put the address for the Reichstag in. Also, the broad plan for Brexit is very simple. Get the best possible deal while honouring the result of the referendum, which means no customs union, no single market membership, no ECJ, no annual fees. The convolution comes from all the continuity Remainers who want to offer a Brexit in name only, and from party politics about 'hard Tory Brexit' when the Labour plan is indistinguishable anyway. When Keir Starmer gets asked what he would do differently he says things like 'I would take a nicer tone'.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42830 Posts
June 14 2017 23:47 GMT
#7188
It's important to remember that Major's years were most known for high profile controversy of whether schools should be allowed to sell of playing fields they deemed surplus to their requirements. And Major had a majority, albeit a weak one. Obviously Brexit is going to happen but I sincerely doubt May is going to get anything else done. No chance at manifesto pledges like fox hunting etc. The Tories are going to get very little done for the next few years. Hopefully someone deposes May and I can have my ideal government, Tory administrators without Tory policies.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
June 15 2017 02:16 GMT
#7189
On June 15 2017 08:42 bardtown wrote:
Facepalm... we're not talking about geographical distance here, and even if we were you've made some mistake when you put the address for the Reichstag in. Also, the broad plan for Brexit is very simple. Get the best possible deal while honouring the result of the referendum, which means no customs union, no single market membership, no ECJ, no annual fees. The convolution comes from all the continuity Remainers who want to offer a Brexit in name only, and from party politics about 'hard Tory Brexit' when the Labour plan is indistinguishable anyway. When Keir Starmer gets asked what he would do differently he says things like 'I would take a nicer tone'.


The question was: "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

Nothing about a customs union, nothing about single market membership, nothing about the European Court of Justice, nothing about annual fees. They are all, and should all, be on the table, at least to start with. That's where a any sane negotiator would start anyway. A hard Brexit has a very simple definition - no trade agreement of any kind, back to WTO rules. The Tories won't get past N. Ireland - which is now complicated by whatever agreement they make with the DUP - monies owed - in both directions - and the status of EU nationals.

Then Phillip Hammond has told us what's going to happen:

“most of us who had voted remain would like the UK to remain a recognisably European-style economy with European-style taxation systems, European-style regulation systems etc. I personally hope we will be able to remain in the mainstream of European economic and social thinking. But if we are forced to be something different, then we will have to become something different”.

and according to the Daily Mail

"Sources said Downing Street and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson were aligned with Mr Hammond’s view."

In addition, when our most experienced EU negotiator and, at the time, EU ambassador quit in January he told us what was going on:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38503504

We do not yet know what the government will set as negotiating objectives for the UK's relationship with the EU after exit.


The Tories don't know what they want.

Serious multilateral negotiating experience is in short supply in Whitehall


They don't know what they're doing.

I hope you will continue to challenge ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking and that you will never be afraid to speak the truth to those in power.


They don't want to hear bad news.

A combination of incompetence, hubris and simply not giving a shit it is to result in all of us paying with a spike in prices and a further hollowing out of productive industry when we can't compete on the continent. This isn't a leap, they are serving the interests of the architects of Brexit; small minded, power hungry, little Englanders tied to a financial services industry that is a drag on our economy and a clearing house for the planet's dirty money.

A Labour Brexit might... maybe... possibly achieve more - it's a hell of a situation, the EU HAS to make it look like it hurts to leave and any Government has to make it look like it didn't get completely shafted - but they certainly won't do worse. As I said, the only thing I've heard them say is absolutely the first step to getting a real trade deal: Get more time.

But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
CuddlyCuteKitten
Profile Joined January 2004
Sweden2631 Posts
June 15 2017 08:38 GMT
#7190
Here we go again. "the EU HAS to make it look like it hurts to leave"

No it doesn't. But the rest of Europe has no obligations to coddle the UK either and they want to get the best deal possible, for them. Since EU is in a position of strength there are several cities that want to try to take back as much of the financial pie as possible from London. Many countries are of course also thinking about trying to move manufacturing jobs to mainland Europe if there is a deal that results in increased tariffs.
And naturally the EU wants to squeeze every single pound it can out of the UK.

It's funny how the Brexiters keep wanting the UK to go strong on the EU and get a good deal for them but when the EU is posturing up to get a good deal for themselves it's seen as "punishment".

That's why there are going to be negotiations and both sides bring a proposal to the table and take it from there. Naturally everyone is trying to get the best deal possible but not getting everything you want is not "punishment".

It's also a pretty unique negotiation in that there are two options available for the UK to take (either hard Brexit IMF style or soft Brexit Norway style) that the other party will be either forced to accept at any time or will likely take at any time.
If the UK government is unable to negotiate a deal somewhere in between that all their citizens are happy with that is again, their problem. The EU does not have to concern themselves with the happiness of British citizens anymore.

I personally hope for a solution everyone is happy with since I quite like the UK but again what is needed is less crying about how the EU is bad when it's a mess that is a 100 % caused by the UK and more of getting shit together so negotiations can really start.
waaaaaaaaaaaooooow - Felicia, SPF2:T
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
June 15 2017 08:43 GMT
#7191
On June 15 2017 17:38 CuddlyCuteKitten wrote:
Here we go again. "the EU HAS to make it look like it hurts to leave"

No it doesn't. But the rest of Europe has no obligations to coddle the UK either and they want to get the best deal possible, for them. Since EU is in a position of strength there are several cities that want to try to take back as much of the financial pie as possible from London. Many countries are of course also thinking about trying to move manufacturing jobs to mainland Europe if there is a deal that results in increased tariffs.
And naturally the EU wants to squeeze every single pound it can out of the UK.

It's funny how the Brexiters keep wanting the UK to go strong on the EU and get a good deal for them but when the EU is posturing up to get a good deal for themselves it's seen as "punishment".

That's why there are going to be negotiations and both sides bring a proposal to the table and take it from there. Naturally everyone is trying to get the best deal possible but not getting everything you want is not "punishment".

It's also a pretty unique negotiation in that there are two options available for the UK to take (either hard Brexit IMF style or soft Brexit Norway style) that the other party will be either forced to accept at any time or will likely take at any time.
If the UK government is unable to negotiate a deal somewhere in between that all their citizens are happy with that is again, their problem. The EU does not have to concern themselves with the happiness of British citizens anymore.

I personally hope for a solution everyone is happy with since I quite like the UK but again what is needed is less crying about how the EU is bad when it's a mess that is a 100 % caused by the UK and more of getting shit together so negotiations can really start.

You're the one crying, and it's really quite tedious. He is correct in saying that the EU needs to make leaving look painful.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
June 15 2017 09:02 GMT
#7192
Would you be so kind to stop patronising people who disagree with you, bardtown?
passive quaranstream fan
CuddlyCuteKitten
Profile Joined January 2004
Sweden2631 Posts
June 15 2017 09:05 GMT
#7193
The EU is built around certain fundamentals, one of them being that you can't pick and choose exactly what you want because then the system doesn't work. If you leave then of course you have to negotiate about how you want the future relationship to work.

I think the UK is doing a terrific job in making the entire process look painful on their own so there is really no need to aggravate the situation. Also EU officials and heads of state have been very open with wanting to work together with UK in the future and that there is no interest in punishment.

The EU can't help that many Brexiters have a worldview in where having the cake and eating it too equals a fair deal.
Still doesn't change the fact that in the real world not getting exactly what you want =/= punishment.
But I guess it's a good strategy to start blaming the EU even before negotiations have started so you have a solid build-up when it's time to blame someone for any post Brexit effects. With that in mind I guess the entire "punishment" narrative is understandable.
waaaaaaaaaaaooooow - Felicia, SPF2:T
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
June 15 2017 09:11 GMT
#7194
On June 15 2017 18:02 Artisreal wrote:
Would you be so kind to stop patronising people who disagree with you, bardtown?

It's not me they disagree with, it's reality. They've been coddled enough to grow up so naive, they really don't need me treating them like children, too.

User was temp banned for this post.
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
June 15 2017 09:43 GMT
#7195
I know the referendum question was should we leave the EU yes or no but the campaign made it quite clear that leaving the EU meant leaving the single market from both sides of the campaign and people still voted to leave so yes the referendum means we should leave the single market as well.
Artisreal
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany9235 Posts
June 15 2017 09:49 GMT
#7196
On June 15 2017 18:11 bardtown wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 15 2017 18:02 Artisreal wrote:
Would you be so kind to stop patronising people who disagree with you, bardtown?

It's not me they disagree with, it's reality. They've been coddled enough to grow up so naive, they really don't need me treating them like children, too.

You just can't stop, can you.
passive quaranstream fan
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
June 15 2017 14:29 GMT
#7197


However...



She can't last past autumn. Odds seem to be on Boris to take over. I can only see him or Davis winning - the membership won't vote for a Remain candidate. I prefer Davis in the hope he will reverse some of the authoritarian nonsense, but I would take either as long as Rudd doesn't get it.
Zaros
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom3692 Posts
June 15 2017 14:34 GMT
#7198
On June 15 2017 23:29 bardtown wrote:
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/875325138945941505

However...

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/875347278596366336

She can't last past autumn. Odds seem to be on Boris to take over. I can only see him or Davis winning - the membership won't vote for a Remain candidate. I prefer Davis in the hope he will reverse some of the authoritarian nonsense, but I would take either as long as Rudd doesn't get it.


I'd like Gove but its never gonna happen
bardtown
Profile Joined June 2011
England2313 Posts
June 15 2017 14:50 GMT
#7199
I would be fine with Gove, but I think he killed that possibility himself. Maybe if Boris doesn't stand he could give it a go, but if Boris does stand I think Gove needs to get behind him as some sort of reconciliation.
KwarK
Profile Blog Joined July 2006
United States42830 Posts
June 15 2017 14:58 GMT
#7200
God help us if we get Boris.
ModeratorThe angels have the phone box
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