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On June 24 2016 14:39 Fprime wrote:
Of course it will take a couple of years to set up (it did last time). That's perfectly fine.
Whether or not 2018ish is a good time for another referendum is subjective. 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU. If they have a successful independence referendum, they have a mandate to begin discussions with the EU on Scotland remaining - even as the rest of the UK leaves. At this moment, the EU would greatly welcome Scotland declaring its intentions to stay which translates into leverage when negotiating the terms (this sort of thing is unprecedented).
Leverage for the EU, not the UK. The UK doesn't want to get ripped in half more than the EU wants to gain a tiny sliver of land.
I always thought the breakup of the EU would start from the east side, not the west. God knows what this means for the mainland.
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On June 24 2016 14:46 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:44 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So now Standard and Poor's have said the UK could see a credit downgrade. Are these important ratings? Very. Quality of being able to handle debt is important.
Well, i do understand that credit ratings in general are important, that wasn't what i meant. I meant, are these important institutes, there seem to be so many? Might be completely off there.
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On June 24 2016 14:49 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 24 2016 14:44 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So now Standard and Poor's have said the UK could see a credit downgrade. Are these important ratings? Very. Quality of being able to handle debt is important. Well, i do understand that credit ratings in general are important, that wasn't what i meant. I meant, are these important institutes, there seem to be so many? Might be completely off there.
S&P ratings are pretty important, yes. At the very least worth paying attention to.
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United States43991 Posts
On June 24 2016 14:46 Falling wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:31 KwarK wrote:On June 24 2016 14:28 Falling wrote:On June 24 2016 14:18 RvB wrote:On June 24 2016 14:12 Sent. wrote:
I dont think a 52% or smaller victory is enough to justify such a drastic change. Wouldnt be surprised (or outraged) if Cameron decided to ignore the result. Should have thought of that before the referendum. I.E. you need a 60% majority to let it pass like with constitutional changes where you often need 66% or even 75%. You cannot do that afterwards. Was it really just a simple majority they were looking for? I guess if Cameron wanted to not immediately go with the Referendum and instead wanted to give Remain another go, he could call an election and make it THE election issue that he and his party was going to stand or die on. The Conservatives are the anti-European party (of the two Westminster English parties). They'd be campaigning on leave. Ah, well nevermind then.
What made this odd was that both main parties are, to a degree, split. Labour have the working poor as a stronghold but many of them are the ignorant anti foreigner voters too. The Conservatives are the party of the rich and are spread between the traditionalists and nationalists who are anti-EU and the pro-business crowd who are strongly pro-EU. UKIP had been stealing voters from both parties but predominantly were hurting the Conservatives. Cameron, in the very close 2015 election, promised a national referendum if he won to lure voters from UKIP who can't actually win seats in the parliamentary elections but can act as a spoiler for the Conservatives. This was a good move for the election but it forced him to hold a vote on an issue that he would rather not because it divided his own party. He's now lost that vote. It's all gone horribly wrong. His ideal outcome was a remain vote which he could bring to Europe as evidence that he needed something for the people while simultaneously securing the Conservatives as the party of the anti-EU voters who just happened to have their hands tied. He could appear all things to all people. Now he's the wrong thing for all people.
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On June 24 2016 14:49 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 24 2016 14:44 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So now Standard and Poor's have said the UK could see a credit downgrade. Are these important ratings? Very. Quality of being able to handle debt is important. Well, i do understand that credit ratings in general are important, that wasn't what i meant. I meant, are these important institutes, there seem to be so many? Might be completely off there.
S&P, Moody and Fitch are the standard in credit rating.
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Well, shit then. Guess the spitefulness already started.
Apart from sarcasm, it's not really surprising though, is it.
edit: and thanks for clarifying.
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On June 24 2016 14:52 CorsairHero wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:49 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 24 2016 14:44 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So now Standard and Poor's have said the UK could see a credit downgrade. Are these important ratings? Very. Quality of being able to handle debt is important. Well, i do understand that credit ratings in general are important, that wasn't what i meant. I meant, are these important institutes, there seem to be so many? Might be completely off there. S&P, Moody and Fitch are the standard in credit rating.
They're usually slower than the markets though. Don't think the downgrade in itself will affect anything.
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I really don't see that prediction of a downgrade as spite. More like uncertainty about the future leading to investor anxiety.
Anyone who expects big changes in the status quo without a hit to the market is a fool though. Financial markets would ideally see all politics stay exactly the same forever.
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Congrats to the UK on your freedom from the EU.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts?
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On June 24 2016 14:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Congrats to the UK on your freedom.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts?
Belgium gets easily over 90% because voting is compulsory. Not showing up to vote can get you a €500 fine.
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On June 24 2016 14:55 LegalLord wrote:
I really don't see that downgrade as spite. More like uncertainty about the future leading to investor anxiety.
Anyone who expects big changes in the status quo without a hit to the market is a fool though. Financial markets would ideally see all politics stay exactly the same forever.
Nah. It was more a hit towards the "stuff that penalizes us for leaving now has to be spitefulness". As i said, i would understand the downgrade, at least from what i can tell with my (very) limited knowledge of how these agencies work/"rule".
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I guess it's time to start shilling for Turkish accession  . Berlin-Paris is too strong now.
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On June 24 2016 14:57 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Congrats to the UK on your freedom.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts? Belgium gets easily over 90% because voting is compulsory. Not showing up to vote can get you a €500 fine.
Didn't know that.
Actually not a dumb idea.
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On June 24 2016 14:53 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:52 CorsairHero wrote:On June 24 2016 14:49 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:46 CorsairHero wrote:On June 24 2016 14:44 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:42 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
So now Standard and Poor's have said the UK could see a credit downgrade. Are these important ratings? Very. Quality of being able to handle debt is important. Well, i do understand that credit ratings in general are important, that wasn't what i meant. I meant, are these important institutes, there seem to be so many? Might be completely off there. S&P, Moody and Fitch are the standard in credit rating. They're usually slower than the markets though. Don't think the downgrade in itself will affect anything.
I suspect that if the downgrade happens, bond yields will trend upwards as investors sell off and move to safer markets. Buying UK debt will be less enticing which will have an impact (higher yields). Mortgages in the UK would also be affected as they're tied to the bond market (both are debt).
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On June 24 2016 14:58 m4ini wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:57 maartendq wrote:On June 24 2016 14:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Congrats to the UK on your freedom.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts? Belgium gets easily over 90% because voting is compulsory. Not showing up to vote can get you a €500 fine. Didn't know that. Actually not a dumb idea.
I like it too. Belgium's incredibly diverse political landscape is probably the result of that, which is a good thing.
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On June 24 2016 15:03 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:58 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:57 maartendq wrote:On June 24 2016 14:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Congrats to the UK on your freedom.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts? Belgium gets easily over 90% because voting is compulsory. Not showing up to vote can get you a €500 fine. Didn't know that. Actually not a dumb idea. I like it too. Belgium's incredibly diverse political landscape is probably the result of that, which is a good thing.
It also teaches responsibility to the youth, i assume. Turnout for younger people generally is rather low. Nah, i'm in. I want that too.
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On June 24 2016 15:03 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 14:58 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:57 maartendq wrote:On June 24 2016 14:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Congrats to the UK on your freedom.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts? Belgium gets easily over 90% because voting is compulsory. Not showing up to vote can get you a €500 fine. Didn't know that. Actually not a dumb idea. I like it too. Belgium's incredibly diverse political landscape is probably the result of that, which is a good thing.
Wouldn't that create a problem of uneducated or apathetic voters who wouldn't normally vote doing so only to avoid the fine?
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On June 24 2016 15:05 GGTeMpLaR wrote:Show nested quote +On June 24 2016 15:03 maartendq wrote:On June 24 2016 14:58 m4ini wrote:On June 24 2016 14:57 maartendq wrote:On June 24 2016 14:56 GGTeMpLaR wrote:
Congrats to the UK on your freedom.
I'm surprised the voter turnout is so high; do many other democratic countries get over 70% voter turnouts? Belgium gets easily over 90% because voting is compulsory. Not showing up to vote can get you a €500 fine. Didn't know that. Actually not a dumb idea. I like it too. Belgium's incredibly diverse political landscape is probably the result of that, which is a good thing. Wouldn't that create a problem of uneducated or apathetic voters who wouldn't normally vote doing so only to avoid the fine?
That's under the assumption that uneducated voters don't usually go vote, which is wrong.
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Personally, I see voting as more like jury duty than, say, soup kitchen volunteerism. Laziness is no excuse for such basic political participation.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/1/590x/secondary/David-Cameron-Boris-Johnson-Michael-Gove-resign-politics-EU-referendum-574618.jpg)
