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Is it time for some more technical analysis? Of course we cannot predict the future, but perhaps we can make some observations.
1. The long-term downward trend that began at the end of 2017 is still very much intact. However, we see lower trading volume with BTC moving in basically a tight range for the past couple of months. We're trading right around our 50-day MA. Recently we've been seeing lower highs, and some higher lows. These things indicate pent-up momentum in both directions.
1 A. Assuming trading volume is not permanently depressed, we may see a breakout in one direction or another coming soon.
2. The ~ $6k level is now the strongest support level on the downside. Any significant breakout below this and we find ourselves in free-fall.
3. On the upside we're looking at strong resistance again at $8k and even stronger at the psychologically important $10k level.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/PQrDGfQ.png)
If we somehow get a lot of optimism you might be able to ride up for a bit. But feels like a very risky play to me given the strong downside potential and I don't think we can say our overall downwards trend has been broken just yet.
+ Show Spoiler +You're probably better off taking $7k and buying some solid well-known company's stock (or better yet, multiple solid companies) and reinvesting the dividends?
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guys have u seen the stock markets its at all time highs, im not even sure what else to invest in. everything is priced out of range because of baby boomers.
im pretty sure this is a good time to buy some bitcoin. not a lot but a few bucks (whatever you can afford that won't damage you in times of need)
also lot of people say breaking 6k will bring us down a lot but heck we already went down enough imo, the market and the industry is much more developed.
when i compare it to 2013 things are much more solid now then ever before so i dont see it being as much of a risk as 2013.
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if youre serious about stock investments there will always be companies to invest in.
youre right about other things being priced too high though (eg. property).
its never a good time to buy bitcoin. as has already been mentioned, you cant forecast trends with bitcoin because the "currency" is completely worthless. your gameplan is to literally sit and hope that a group of idiots come along and buy your worthless "assets" for a higher price than you did.
relying on your buyer to be ignorant is a pretty poor way to invest your money
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On September 03 2018 13:49 Chrono000 wrote:
guys have u seen the stock markets its at all time highs, im not even sure what else to invest in. everything is priced out of range because of baby boomers.
Tech has been the leading grower for a very long time now, and there's still reason to believe there's about a year left of (decreasing) increase. That being said, if you've done the research and have come up with the opinion that everything is priced out of range and/or that you're not confident in putting your money anywhere in the stock market, then don't.
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im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development.
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United States41934 Posts
On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development.
Middleman costs are near zero. I pay .05%/year.
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On September 03 2018 14:57 KwarK wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. Middleman costs are near zero. I pay .05%/year.
Not only that, but BTC comes with middleman costs too. How many "marketplaces" and "wallets" have either been a scam or gotten hacked and plundered?
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On September 03 2018 18:30 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 14:57 KwarK wrote:On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. Middleman costs are near zero. I pay .05%/year. Not only that, but BTC comes with middleman costs too. How many "marketplaces" and "wallets" have either been a scam or gotten hacked and plundered?
these are not middleman costs. these are costs paid by people who don't understand the technology and risks involved and unfortunately they had to learn the hard way. use a hardware wallet and don't keep your money on an exchange and you will be fine.
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On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development.
why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability?
also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation.
I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments).
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On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments).
You can buy stock directly, but it depends on how much effort you want to put in. If you want a "fire and forget" investment option, directly buying stocks is bad. Bitcoin is even worse.
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On September 03 2018 21:09 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments). You can buy stock directly, but it depends on how much effort you want to put in. If you want a "fire and forget" investment option, directly buying stocks is bad. Bitcoin is even worse.
I advise against directly buying stocks in general. When directly picking stocks, you need to be more astute than other people who are also directly buyin stocks; most of whom are going to be professionals for whom this is their job. Most people don't have the financial acumen to properly monitor a stock portfolio, or judge what and when to buy and sell. It also tends to make your assets more prone to fluctuation, since direct investing like that probably means your assets are less diversified overall.
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On September 03 2018 22:04 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 21:09 Acrofales wrote:On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments). You can buy stock directly, but it depends on how much effort you want to put in. If you want a "fire and forget" investment option, directly buying stocks is bad. Bitcoin is even worse. I advise against directly buying stocks in general. When directly picking stocks, you need to be more astute than other people who are also directly buyin stocks; most of whom are going to be professionals for whom this is their job. Most people don't have the financial acumen to properly monitor a stock portfolio, or judge what and when to buy and sell. It also tends to make your assets more prone to fluctuation, since direct investing like that probably means your assets are less diversified overall.
I do agree mostly. But I have a lot less faith in those "professionals" than you do. The main advantages of investmend funds are the fact that they diversify and through that diversification better control their risk profile. If as an individual you are willing to put in a lot of time and effort, you can do the same.
As for professionals, it has been shown time and again that randomness is simply a huge factor: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/#7699aa07630a
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On September 03 2018 22:32 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 22:04 zlefin wrote:On September 03 2018 21:09 Acrofales wrote:On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments). You can buy stock directly, but it depends on how much effort you want to put in. If you want a "fire and forget" investment option, directly buying stocks is bad. Bitcoin is even worse. I advise against directly buying stocks in general. When directly picking stocks, you need to be more astute than other people who are also directly buyin stocks; most of whom are going to be professionals for whom this is their job. Most people don't have the financial acumen to properly monitor a stock portfolio, or judge what and when to buy and sell. It also tends to make your assets more prone to fluctuation, since direct investing like that probably means your assets are less diversified overall. I do agree mostly. But I have a lot less faith in those "professionals" than you do. The main advantages of investmend funds are the fact that they diversify and through that diversification better control their risk profile. If as an individual you are willing to put in a lot of time and effort, you can do the same. As for professionals, it has been shown time and again that randomness is simply a huge factor: https://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/#7699aa07630a
I don't have a lot of faith in professionals; but it remains the case that they are the competition. It's just that I have even less faith in the other folk.
I agree an individual can, in principle, do the same with a lot of time and effort; the problem is that most people do not put in the time and effort, and do not have the expertise (and some don't have the temperament to invest properly, like being prone to panic selling off at the wrong time when things are going bad)
furthermore, people cannot accurately judge their own ability, or how well they're keeping up with that time/effort, so it's a far better standard to recommend they not go into the stocks directly. but I think we're getting off topic, so I'll try to not respond to your reply so we can end this tangent. (might well fail at that though)
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On September 03 2018 22:04 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 21:09 Acrofales wrote:On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments). You can buy stock directly, but it depends on how much effort you want to put in. If you want a "fire and forget" investment option, directly buying stocks is bad. Bitcoin is even worse. I advise against directly buying stocks in general. When directly picking stocks, you need to be more astute than other people who are also directly buyin stocks; most of whom are going to be professionals for whom this is their job. Most people don't have the financial acumen to properly monitor a stock portfolio, or judge what and when to buy and sell. It also tends to make your assets more prone to fluctuation, since direct investing like that probably means your assets are less diversified overall.
I don't really agree with this conventional wisdom. Any monkey picking stocks at random could outperform even the most seasoned investment managers or index funds. See This Forbes Article which references this study. Basically if you pick enough stocks at random you'll end up with a diversified portfolio. By picking any old stocks instead of mostly large-caps you have a portfolio with a higher risk profile (greater potential for growth and higher risk inherent to small-cap stocks), and on average do pretty well (on average being the key words in this sentence; you'll sometimes end up with some duds).
That said, the stock market overall (esp. in U.S.) is really high right now, so perhaps your timing isn't very good. And maybe Botcoin becomes the currency of the future, I don't know. For me, I would look for Bitcoin to have greater acceptance as a form of payment - this is what will make it more valuable relative to fiat currencies; if people are actually using it for payments instead of just as a speculative vehicle.
I don't really understand this bit about middle-men costs. You buy a stock on Etrade or whatever, you pay like $10 for them to execute the trade. Index & mutual funds have very low annual costs these days. The only way this is a problem is if you're trying to day-trade, which is just not a good idea if you're not a professional (and is still probably not a good idea even if you are). Is this not true in other countries?
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On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments).
well ive been watching the cryptocurrency space for awhile and i have not seen any fundamental problems in that the networks has never suffered an outage and a hack on the protocol level (exchanges, yes, they've been hacked, but not bitcoin), this gives me great confidence that there is a robust system under the currency.
it may not function as a currency today but seems to be getting closer to that with updates such as the lightening network which enable instant and free transaction (its still young tech but again promising). instead bitcoin is acting as a banking system with much better returns from what i can gather from bitcoin 10 year life.
On top of that i see a lot of news about regular banks and exchanges now getting into crypto. I personally think they don't have alot going for them in terms of the future so by including crypto into there business they stick around a little longer.
im originally from Australia and my broker to buy stocks is limited to australia stocks (which suck) with fees of 10 to 20 dollars per trade which is insane. on-top of that if i want to buy foreign stocks, you normally forced to buy a blend with middlemen etc, thats just how it works. i probably need to find a different broker but and maybe take ur suggestion and buy a basket of blended stocks but again i dont see much upside infact i just see a bubble (been saying that for awhile and so far its just keeps going up)
I just dont know what to do. there is very little opportunity today and the any sort of investment has been heavily bought up and controlled by the previous generations.
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by the way i think i answered this a little in previous post. but yes id like the flexibility to get in and out of positions without getting slammed but have not put in enough time to find a good broker.
now least with bitcoin you buy and sell and there is hardly a fee, maybe 0.075% fee on the total amount traded which is fair. its extremely liquid too which stocks arent. i had to wait 4-5 days to get money from selling stocks the other week... i also paid about 25$ and i guess that was the reason why i came here to discuss investments. that and also the fact that the S&P500 is high as fuck. i mean what the actual fuck is going on!
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On September 04 2018 07:45 Chrono000 wrote:Show nested quote +On September 03 2018 20:55 zlefin wrote:On September 03 2018 14:42 Chrono000 wrote:
im probably not going to buy stocks.
i actually think bitcoin has a lot of upside and usability as time goes forward.
so far the bank deposit, local currency and pretty much everything else has performed extremely poorly and probably will continue to do so and so i dont think there is much alternative.
some tech stocks do look pretty interesting though but buying stocks comes with a lot of middlemen costs that are pretty insane if you ask me.
im hoping that btc will continue to out preform going forward since we dont have a digital currency yet and it seems btc is probably the only digital currency that will succeed going forward due to its 10 year development. why do you think bitcoin has upside and usability? also bitcoin has already proven it's grossly unfit as a currency due to its fluctuation. I too would be concerned about buying stocks atm as they are quite high. (also you shouldn't be buying stock directly anyways, you buy some sort of diversified mutual funds). given the current economy, you may simply have to settle for a low rate of return on your investments (or just accept the risk of a market downturn occurring, dollar cost averaging helps a bit with that if you spread out your investments). well ive been watching the cryptocurrency space for awhile and i have not seen any fundamental problems in that the networks has never suffered an outage and a hack on the protocol level (exchanges, yes, they've been hacked, but not bitcoin), this gives me great confidence that there is a robust system under the currency. it may not function as a currency today but seems to be getting closer to that with updates such as the lightening network which enable instant and free transaction (its still young tech but again promising). instead bitcoin is acting as a banking system with much better returns from what i can gather from bitcoin 10 year life. On top of that i see a lot of news about regular banks and exchanges now getting into crypto. I personally think they don't have alot going for them in terms of the future so by including crypto into there business they stick around a little longer. im originally from Australia and my broker to buy stocks is limited to australia stocks (which suck) with fees of 10 to 20 dollars per trade which is insane. on-top of that if i want to buy foreign stocks, you normally forced to buy a blend with middlemen etc, thats just how it works. i probably need to find a different broker but and maybe take ur suggestion and buy a basket of blended stocks but again i dont see much upside infact i just see a bubble (been saying that for awhile and so far its just keeps going up) I just dont know what to do. there is very little opportunity today and the any sort of investment has been heavily bought up and controlled by the previous generations.
none of those updates make it suitable as a currency, it's far too volatile to be a good currency. It doesn't have much fundamental value or worth that it provides, it has no backing, and it may upset governments who certainly do have the power to do something about it. Being digital is nothing special, as there's no shortage of ways to spend regular currencies online.
banks and exchanges getting into crypto aren't a sign that it's the future, it's just a sign that there's some money to be made now. They get involved a bit because it's hot, not because it's truly good. A lot of money making is just about taking advantage of temporary swings.
On brokers, that's indeed a tricky issue, as those are all heavily regulated and would vary by country, so I don't know what options you'd have. I'm surprised to hear you'd have a fee so high, competition should be keeping the fees down. And I know there's a variety of ever cheaper ways to get into the market. Fees vary considerably of course, and it depends how much money you have to put in. But you should be able to find something where net fee for getting is less than 1%, and the annual fees (if applicable for things like mutual funds) are well under 1%.
It is indeed a problem that there's limited opportunity right now, and a lot of stuff is heavily bought up already. I don't have a good answer for that, sometimes there simply aren't good investments around and you have to settle for a low rate of return. As long as you beat inflation it's something.
being liquid isn't necessarily a good thing. while there's value in being liquid, in general the more liquid an asset is, the worse the rate of return it provides. While you need to keep some money highly liquid for day to day living; for your long term investments, it's fine for those to be quite illiquid, as you will never need them that fast.
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yeah bitcoins viability as a legitimate currency is very questionable. im not up to date on the latest with bitcoin but as far as i know, aside from volatility in value, the blockchain system that bitcoin uses cannot handle transactions at a large enough scale where the majority of the world could use reliably. also there are so many alternatives to bitcoin that one cryptocurrency will never become a staple currency in society.
investing in bitcoin isnt investing; its gambling
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On September 04 2018 14:31 evilfatsh1t wrote:
yeah bitcoins viability as a legitimate currency is very questionable. im not up to date on the latest with bitcoin but as far as i know, aside from volatility in value, the blockchain system that bitcoin uses cannot handle transactions at a large enough scale where the majority of the world could use reliably. also there are so many alternatives to bitcoin that one cryptocurrency will never become a staple currency in society.
investing in bitcoin isnt investing; its gambling
everything is gambling in a way.
you can check the bitcoin blockchain and see that it is not overloaded. they fixed it and continue to improve it. this is another strong reason why i think it has a good chance of winning as time goes on.
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/avg-block-size
if u see above link the blocks are not full and it seems to be chugging along just fine.
oh and by the way, take a look at this recent news: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/three-reasons-vaneck-bitcoin-etf-filing-isnt-dead-yet/
if this ETF thing gets through it may seal bitcoins faith as a mainstream investable asset.
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i dont know what that block size link is referring to, but bitcoin blocks are capped at 1mb. also, whether or not the blocks are overloaded at the moment is irrelevant. bitcoin has faded out of public interest so much that the current amount of transactions would be considered less than peanuts compared to what youd expect from a globally adopted mainstream currency. at its peak there were like 200k transactions that werent being processed at all, and id guess not even 1% of the world's population was using it.
again, you keep overlooking the fact that the currency just isnt reliable for everyday use. it has no intrinsic value and is extremely volatile. bitcoin lost more than half its value over 2 months and hasnt recovered since. i remember how this thread was riddled with people who thought bitcoin was the next big thing and look whats happened. it was a bubble and nothing more.
i mean look at this guy.
On December 26 2017 03:59 ShoCkeyy wrote:
$40k by end of 2018. You'll all see.
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EPT
