US Politics Mega-thread - Page 3295

On March 13 2016 08:16 Ghanburighan wrote:
Whether the claim is correct or not (it really doesn't matter, methinks), the site referenced is hilarious:

On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:

Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate?

I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years.

On March 13 2016 08:37 Gorsameth wrote:

The bad of Bush + the hype of Obama made the GOP turn to what is now the tea party in order to win congress. However as a result the tea party has exerted more and more influence over the Republican nomination process which has driven them further away from the center and has lost them large parts of the undecided vote.
This process has not stopped or been reverted, if anything Trump is making it more pronounced then ever before. Hence the belief by some (myself included) that a Republican president is not happening in the foreseeable future.

On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:

Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate?

I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years.

On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views.

On March 13 2016 08:45 Danglars wrote:

I don't know what you mean by GOP "turning to" the Tea Party. They fought GOP incumbents tooth and nail in the primaries and won. They took out the second-highest ranking Republican in Congress, Cantor fell to Brat. The electorate was far away from the popularly described center (whether or not its a true center is a debate for another forum), and the representation slowly caught up. Since people wanting to reform the GOP from the inside are technically (R) voters, their numbers bolster the GOP. The leadership warred upon the tea party, lost some, won some, and are currently in a marriage of convenience with those that can support big budget deals and meet the establishment halfway.

On March 13 2016 08:44 Plansix wrote:

Yes, that is exactly what I am saying. He isn't even dominating the primary process. He picks up 35-40% of Republicans that vote in the primaries. He rarely breaks 50% if ever. He is dominating in a field of losers. He is the biggest loser in a field of unappealing options for Republicans and is doing so through populist rants about China, deportation and that all Muslims are a threat. His ability to win shows the state of the Republican party, not some shift in the nations views.

On March 13 2016 08:50 TheTenthDoc wrote:


The best sign he can't grab the general electorate is that he has more voters viewing him unfavorably within his own party, and within the general public, of a plurality supported candidate in recent history.

On March 13 2016 08:57 Plansix wrote:

And those who were elected have lead to the least productive and lowest rated congress in the history of congress. They accomplished nothing but stall out the government, attempt repeal the ACA, shut down the government and defund PP. And all of these things were WILDLY unpopular. They promised people shit they couldn't do to get a elected and once elected, they didn't do the things they promised. And the whole "Do nothing and blame Obama" plan hasn't worked out. The master plan of the Republican party to do nothing until the Democrats disappear has failed. Trump is the proof of that.

On March 13 2016 08:36 wei2coolman wrote:

Wait, are you saying Trumps increase in general public voting for primaries, isn't an indication that he can't grab general electorate?

I ain't saying he'll win, but he definitely crosses party lines in terms of general electorate, much so any other republican candidate in the past years.

On March 13 2016 08:52 oBlade wrote:

There's 4 candidates still in the running... do you have any kind of historical precedent or something to show there's something wrong with his performance as frontrunner? Like the 2012 election or something?

On March 13 2016 09:01 Toadesstern wrote:

frankly I don't think the set of people who actually care enough to vote in a primary overlap with the set of truely undecided voters at all.
Maybe he's drawing out the the fringe people who really never had someone extreme enough for them to bother while the others are drawing out the "omg, just not Trump" people who are undecided in name only, aka Republicans but are too embarassed to identify as Republicans due to Tea Party etc, idk.

On March 13 2016 08:59 wei2coolman wrote:

You are aware, he's running against 3 other candidates right?

Voters viewing him unfavorably, yes, but he's also grabbed new votes in primary, that weren't initially part of the voting population.

On March 13 2016 09:03 TheTenthDoc wrote:


He's also grabbed anti-votes that weren't part of the voting population. I do not understand how people think he will perform well in a general election when half the voting population (not half the party elites) in his own party would be unsatisfied with him receiving the nomination.

On March 13 2016 09:03 TheTenthDoc wrote:


He's also grabbed anti-votes that weren't part of the voting population. I do not understand how people think he will perform well in a general election when half the voting population (not half the party elites) in his own party would be unsatisfied with him receiving the nomination.

In fact, the REASON he's doing so well is that there are still 4 people in the race. With 2, or even 3, he would be in a much worse spot.

On March 13 2016 09:02 wei2coolman wrote:

I mentioned it again, those "extreme" voters were already voting GOP regardless, and do you really think all the racists are now finally coming out of the wood work to vote for Trump in 2016; all while staying asleep in their house while Obama gets elected in 2008 and 2012?

On March 13 2016 09:02 wei2coolman wrote:

I mentioned it again, those "extreme" voters were already voting GOP regardless, and do you really think all the racists are now finally coming out of the wood work to vote for Trump in 2016; all while staying asleep in their house while Obama gets elected in 2008 and 2012?

On March 13 2016 09:09 Toadesstern wrote:

yeah but did they vote before the election during the primary? Honest question because I wasn't paying that much attention during that time. I could very well see those people not caring before the general simply because noone was rightwing enough for them anyways so they'll just vote whoever the party chooses come election day.

On March 13 2016 09:20 wei2coolman wrote:

What do you think the Tea Party movement was? They essentially highjacked the GOP for 8 years.

On March 13 2016 09:02 Plansix wrote:


There is this.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

People do not like him. Like at all. It is one of the threats in the primary system and why the parties used to focus on "electability". It used to be a huge factor, could the candidate sway independent voters. That is not a popular subject now, but the parties are not really what they used to be either. Especially the Republicans.

Trump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24
standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the
right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34%
and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and
‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage.

Romney’s favorability spread is up 18 points from almost even at 44% favorable and
43% unfavorable to 54-35 in the last month, while Santorum’s is down 13 points from
64-22 to 59-30. Corresponding with that, Romney now leads the national primary
preference with 34% to Santorum’s 31%, Newt Gingrich’s 20%, and Ron Paul’s 9%.

On March 13 2016 09:30 oBlade wrote:

Please focus. You were talking about the Republican primary and then responded with the general election, which is a separate question.

Here's a PPP poll from early Feb 2016 (most recent I found) showing Trump leading slightly in a GOP field of four. He is farther ahead now - this is just about the lowest poll performance he's had in the past two months (FYI), and he was still ahead on it.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf



Now here's a PPP poll from mid-March 2012 showing Romney (he went on to secure the nomination) leading slightly in a field of four. For reference, in the mid-March primaries Romney was getting about 35% of actual voters. This was the poll's results:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_US_032112.pdf



If you don't know how to interpret this data, I can help. Trump is polling in the same range as Romney was under similar circumstances at a similar time in the primaries. He's really not the black sheep you want to paint him as.

The exit polls have asked Republican voters in seven states — here’s Tennessee, for example — whether they’d be satisfied if each of Cruz, Rubio and Trump won the nomination. Remember, these are actual voters — voters who gave Trump a win in six of the seven states where the exit poll asked this question — and not some hypothetical universe of “likely voters.” On average, just 49 percent of these actual Republican voters said they’d be satisfied with Trump. The numbers for the other two candidates were better, but not by much: 53 percent of voters said they’d be satisfied with Rubio, and 51 percent with Cruz.

You might wonder whether this sort of thing always happens during a nomination campaign. The short answer is that it doesn’t. By comparison, 79 percent of Democrats this year have said they’d be satisfied with Hillary Clinton as their nominee, while 62 percent have said so of Bernie Sanders.

Eight years ago, the battle between Clinton and Barack Obama was much tenser. With a few notable exceptions in Appalachia, however, both Clinton and Obama were widely acceptable to Democrats in 2008. On average in the 35 states where the exit polls asked the question, 69 percent of Democrats said they’d be satisfied with Obama as their nominee, while 71 percent said so of Clinton.

How about the Republican race in 2012? The exit polls posed the satisfaction question in only four states, and Romney’s numbers weren’t great. But they were still much better than Trump’s. On average, 63 percent of Republicans said they’d be happy with Romney as their nominee.

I also looked up these numbers for the 2004 Democratic and the 2008 Republican races, elections that bear some similarity to this year’s Republican race because there was no clear front-runner early on. Although it took a while for John Kerry and John McCain to catch on with voters, they eventually became very popular. In 2004, an average of 79 percent of Democrats said they’d be satisfied with Kerry as their nominee, while 77 percent of Republicans said so of McCain in 2008.

Not only is Trump’s 49 percent satisfaction rating lower than any recent party nominee’s, it’s also lower than almost all the losers’. Rick Santorum in 2012 was more widely acceptable than Trump, for example. The only exception was Ron Paul in 2012, although the exit polls asked about him in only two states.