On October 23 2012 11:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Rachel Maddow going full lecture mode...
Rachel Maddow going full lecture mode...
she has other modes?
Forum Index > General Forum |
Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here. The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301 | ||
Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
October 23 2012 02:51 GMT
#19641
On October 23 2012 11:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: Rachel Maddow going full lecture mode... she has other modes? | ||
Dapper_Cad
United Kingdom964 Posts
October 23 2012 02:52 GMT
#19642
On October 23 2012 11:45 turdburgler wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote: On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote: On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote: I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney. What... "This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney" Huh??? xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate. I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. nate silver is still predicting a 40 point EC victory for obama with 67% certainty of victory. 67% certainty of victory. | ||
caradoc
Canada3022 Posts
October 23 2012 02:52 GMT
#19643
On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote: Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much. I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map. | ||
aksfjh
United States4853 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19644
On October 23 2012 11:45 Signet wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:42 TheTenthDoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote: On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote: On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote: I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney. What... "This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney" Huh??? xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate. I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology. Additionally, 538 and RCP have both debunked the "oversampling" claims. Claimed party ID is not a demographic variable, it's a fluid attitude. And tea partiers are calling themselves "independent" these days... Let's not forget that midterm elections are usually more erratic in turnout. | ||
poor newb
United States1879 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19645
On October 23 2012 11:52 caradoc wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote: Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much. I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map. romney sounded like he was trembling in fear at times throughout the debate | ||
TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19646
On October 23 2012 11:53 aksfjh wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:45 Signet wrote: On October 23 2012 11:42 TheTenthDoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote: On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote: On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote: I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney. What... "This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney" Huh??? xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate. I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology. Additionally, 538 and RCP have both debunked the "oversampling" claims. Claimed party ID is not a demographic variable, it's a fluid attitude. And tea partiers are calling themselves "independent" these days... Let's not forget that midterm elections are usually more erratic in turnout. Or that Republicans are nowhere near as heavily behind Romney as they were behind the Tea Party in 2010. I mean, play the tapes of these debates and he'd have been run out of the primaries as a laughingstock. | ||
{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19647
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Swazi Spring
United States415 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19648
On October 23 2012 11:52 caradoc wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote: Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much. I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map. I only listened to it, but I don't think Obama really said anything memorable, aside from the "horses and bayonets" joke, but that was a joke, no real substance. | ||
turdburgler
England6749 Posts
October 23 2012 02:54 GMT
#19649
On October 23 2012 11:52 Dapper_Cad wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:45 turdburgler wrote: On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote: On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote: On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote: I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney. What... "This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney" Huh??? xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate. I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. nate silver is still predicting a 40 point EC victory for obama with 67% certainty of victory. 67% certainty of victory. you've never studied statistics have you? | ||
Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
October 23 2012 02:54 GMT
#19650
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24% thats not a huge win for obama but a BIG loss for romney | ||
jalstar
United States8198 Posts
October 23 2012 02:54 GMT
#19651
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24% Pretty safe to say the CNN poll will be about +10 for Obama, based on previous differences in the polls. | ||
Doraemon
Australia14949 Posts
October 23 2012 02:55 GMT
#19652
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24% yep. romney clearly thrashed obama there did he seriously say merrrrica is hope of the earth? | ||
Slaughter
United States20254 Posts
October 23 2012 02:55 GMT
#19653
On October 23 2012 11:53 Swazi Spring wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:52 caradoc wrote: On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote: Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much. I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map. I only listened to it, but I don't think Obama really said anything memorable, aside from the "horses and bayonets" joke, but that was a joke, no real substance. The thing is, in close debates that are boring as hell as this last one was its zingers like those that stick with people and then they associate it with the winner. | ||
Ventris
Germany1226 Posts
October 23 2012 02:56 GMT
#19654
On October 23 2012 11:55 Doraemon wrote: Show nested quote + On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24% yep. romney clearly thrashed obama there did he seriously say merrrrica is hope of the earth? He did. | ||
Kupon3ss
時の回廊10066 Posts
October 23 2012 02:57 GMT
#19655
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nevermindthebollocks
United States116 Posts
October 23 2012 02:57 GMT
#19656
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24% well you expect it to be about 50/50 so i read that as 3% romney admitting they lost and 24% romney fans denying the obvious! | ||
ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
October 23 2012 02:58 GMT
#19657
On October 23 2012 11:41 nevermindthebollocks wrote: how does that work? If I bet 10 thousand dollars on obama how much do i get the day after the election? If you buy shares at $6.00 for obama. then you'd get $10.00 for every $6.00 you put in if you were correct. | ||
Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
October 23 2012 02:59 GMT
#19658
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sam!zdat
United States5559 Posts
October 23 2012 02:59 GMT
#19659
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
October 23 2012 03:00 GMT
#19660
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