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President Obama Re-Elected - Page 983

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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here.

The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301
Deathmanbob
Profile Joined December 2010
United States2356 Posts
October 23 2012 02:51 GMT
#19641
On October 23 2012 11:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Rachel Maddow going full lecture mode...


she has other modes?
No Artosis, you are robin
Dapper_Cad
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United Kingdom964 Posts
October 23 2012 02:52 GMT
#19642
On October 23 2012 11:45 turdburgler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote:
I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney.



What...

"This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney"

Huh???


xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate.

I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness.


nate silver is still predicting a 40 point EC victory for obama with 67% certainty of victory.


67% certainty of victory.
But he is never making short-term prediction, everyone of his prediction are based on fundenmentals, but he doesn't exactly know when it will happen... So using these kind of narrowed "who-is-right" empirical analysis makes little sense.
caradoc
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Canada3022 Posts
October 23 2012 02:52 GMT
#19643
On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote:
Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much.


I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map.
Salvation a la mode and a cup of tea...
aksfjh
Profile Joined November 2010
United States4853 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19644
On October 23 2012 11:45 Signet wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:42 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote:
I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney.



What...

"This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney"

Huh???


xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate.

I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness.


You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology.

Additionally, 538 and RCP have both debunked the "oversampling" claims. Claimed party ID is not a demographic variable, it's a fluid attitude. And tea partiers are calling themselves "independent" these days...

Let's not forget that midterm elections are usually more erratic in turnout.
poor newb
Profile Joined April 2004
United States1879 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19645
On October 23 2012 11:52 caradoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote:
Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much.


I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map.


romney sounded like he was trembling in fear at times throughout the debate
How do you mine minerals?
TheTenthDoc
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States9561 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-10-23 02:54:58
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19646
I think Romney may have been "altitude sick" this time around, but not as severely as Obama was in Denver.

On October 23 2012 11:53 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:45 Signet wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:42 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote:
I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney.



What...

"This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney"

Huh???


xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate.

I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness.


You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology.

Additionally, 538 and RCP have both debunked the "oversampling" claims. Claimed party ID is not a demographic variable, it's a fluid attitude. And tea partiers are calling themselves "independent" these days...

Let's not forget that midterm elections are usually more erratic in turnout.


Or that Republicans are nowhere near as heavily behind Romney as they were behind the Tea Party in 2010. I mean, play the tapes of these debates and he'd have been run out of the primaries as a laughingstock.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19647
CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24%
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Swazi Spring
Profile Joined September 2012
United States415 Posts
October 23 2012 02:53 GMT
#19648
On October 23 2012 11:52 caradoc wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote:
Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much.


I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map.

I only listened to it, but I don't think Obama really said anything memorable, aside from the "horses and bayonets" joke, but that was a joke, no real substance.
turdburgler
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
England6749 Posts
October 23 2012 02:54 GMT
#19649
On October 23 2012 11:52 Dapper_Cad wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:45 turdburgler wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:36 TheTenthDoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:34 happyft wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:32 xDaunt wrote:
I think this debate was a tie. Both sides have some stuff that they point to in support of the proposition that they "won," but there definitely was no decisive win for either side. Yet, that this was a draw was clearly a victory for Romney.



What...

"This was a draw" => "This was clearly a victory for Romney"

Huh???


xDaunt insists Gallup is accurate.

I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness.


nate silver is still predicting a 40 point EC victory for obama with 67% certainty of victory.


67% certainty of victory.


you've never studied statistics have you?
Deathmanbob
Profile Joined December 2010
United States2356 Posts
October 23 2012 02:54 GMT
#19650
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24%


thats not a huge win for obama but a BIG loss for romney
No Artosis, you are robin
jalstar
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
United States8198 Posts
October 23 2012 02:54 GMT
#19651
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24%


Pretty safe to say the CNN poll will be about +10 for Obama, based on previous differences in the polls.
Doraemon
Profile Blog Joined January 2010
Australia14949 Posts
October 23 2012 02:55 GMT
#19652
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24%


yep. romney clearly thrashed obama there

did he seriously say merrrrica is hope of the earth?
Do yourself a favour and just STFU
Slaughter
Profile Blog Joined November 2003
United States20255 Posts
October 23 2012 02:55 GMT
#19653
On October 23 2012 11:53 Swazi Spring wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:52 caradoc wrote:
On October 23 2012 11:51 Swazi Spring wrote:
Pretty boring debate, Romney won, but it probably won't affect the polls too much.


I disagree, he looked flustered, and shaken at times seemed all over the map.

I only listened to it, but I don't think Obama really said anything memorable, aside from the "horses and bayonets" joke, but that was a joke, no real substance.


The thing is, in close debates that are boring as hell as this last one was its zingers like those that stick with people and then they associate it with the winner.
Never Knows Best.
Ventris
Profile Joined December 2011
Germany1226 Posts
October 23 2012 02:56 GMT
#19654
On October 23 2012 11:55 Doraemon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24%


yep. romney clearly thrashed obama there

did he seriously say merrrrica is hope of the earth?

He did.
Kupon3ss
Profile Joined May 2008
時の回廊10066 Posts
October 23 2012 02:57 GMT
#19655
Romney "lost" the actual substantive parts of debate but came off like a vulnerable puppy. In the effects of the election I feel like Romney ended up "winning" as Obama's (mostly factual and fair) attacks did something that republicans have failed at for 6 months, humanize Romneybot2k12.
When in doubt, just believe in yourself and press buttons
nevermindthebollocks
Profile Joined October 2012
United States116 Posts
October 23 2012 02:57 GMT
#19656
On October 23 2012 11:53 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
CBS Poll: Obama: 53% Romney: 23% Tie: 24%

well you expect it to be about 50/50 so i read that as 3% romney admitting they lost and 24% romney fans denying the obvious!
Anarchy!
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 23 2012 02:58 GMT
#19657
On October 23 2012 11:41 nevermindthebollocks wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 23 2012 11:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
In trade went up to 60% for Obama

how does that work? If I bet 10 thousand dollars on obama how much do i get the day after the election?


If you buy shares at $6.00 for obama. then you'd get $10.00 for every $6.00 you put in if you were correct.
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
Deathmanbob
Profile Joined December 2010
United States2356 Posts
October 23 2012 02:59 GMT
#19658
CNN mentioning the intrade odds
No Artosis, you are robin
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
October 23 2012 02:59 GMT
#19659
LOL the hope of the earth. The Earth! Romney speaks for The Earth now
shikata ga nai
ticklishmusic
Profile Blog Joined August 2011
United States15977 Posts
October 23 2012 03:00 GMT
#19660
‎"if the debate had gone on twenty more minutes, romney would have ended up endorsing obama" -- black dude with the etch a sketch
(╯°□°)╯︵ ┻━┻
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