EPTPresident Obama Re-Elected - Page 982
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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here. The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301 | ||
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either I or
116 Posts
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. | ||
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wei2coolman
United States60033 Posts
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nevermindthebollocks
United States116 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:38 {CC}StealthBlue wrote: In trade went up to 60% for Obama how does that work? If I bet 10 thousand dollars on obama how much do i get the day after the election? | ||
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Splynn
United States225 Posts
Question Romney: Well I'd do what Obama did, but better! Obama: I've already done it better :/. I feel like Obama wins the debate purely on that. If Romney is just going to do what Obama is doing, why are we supposed to switch gears into his candidacy? Incumbents win the overwhelming majority of elections in the US; you can't just echo the incumbent as the challenger and hope to win. | ||
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noD
2230 Posts
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote: I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology. | ||
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happyft
United States470 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:41 Splynn wrote: What I generally got from the debate was: Question Romney: Well I'd do what Obama did, but better! Obama: I've already done it better :/. I feel like Obama wins the debate purely on that. If Romney is just going to do what Obama is doing, why are we supposed to switch gears into his candidacy? Incumbents win the overwhelming majority of elections in the US; you can't just echo the incumbent as the challenger and hope to win. Yeah, Obama's foreign policy is his strong suit and Romney's weak point ... not surprised how this debate went | ||
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CursedRich
United Kingdom737 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:40 forgottendreams wrote: You only get to be thankful when we allow you be to thankful, just ask Tony Blair. No back talking the Hope of the Eart anymore ok? LOL, yes master | ||
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jdseemoreglass
United States3773 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:41 Splynn wrote: What I generally got from the debate was: Question Romney: Well I'd do what Obama did, but better! Obama: I've already done it better :/. I feel like Obama wins the debate purely on that. If Romney is just going to do what Obama is doing, why are we supposed to switch gears into his candidacy? Incumbents win the overwhelming majority of elections in the US; you can't just echo the incumbent as the challenger and hope to win. Hence, why it is stupid having an entire debate focused on foreign policy. | ||
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ziggurat
Canada847 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:41 nevermindthebollocks wrote: how does that work? If I bet 10 thousand dollars on obama how much do i get the day after the election? If it's at 60% exactly then you put down $6 and get back $10 if Obama wins. If Obama loses then you get nothing back. | ||
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xDaunt
United States17988 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:42 TheTenthDoc wrote: You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology. Well, we are going to find out who is right real soon. | ||
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TheTenthDoc
United States9561 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:44 xDaunt wrote: Well, we are going to find out who is right real soon. Yep. At least you don't believe that laughable B.S. about Obama winning only 10 states. | ||
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eshlow
United States5210 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:39 jdseemoreglass wrote: Fun? FUN!?! This is war. You are supposed to view yourself as a group and hate everyone who isn't a part of that group. Reps vs. Dems, Minority vs. White, Rich vs. Poor, Women vs. Men, Us vs. Them. You are supposed to hate your fellow Americans for destroying the country. Don't you ever forget it. You can't. Don't bother trying, it won't be counted. But, you ever hear of Gary Johnson? Can't vote for Ron Paul since he went the Repub national convention route? Will look up Gary Johnson... | ||
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ey215
United States546 Posts
I'm actually wondering if Romney wasn't actually debating the ghost of George W. Bush's presidency. | ||
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Signet
United States1718 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:42 TheTenthDoc wrote: You're smarter than to believe Dick Morris. Believe actual aggregators, be they RCP or 538, regarding how accurate the state polls have historically been as well as their methodology. Additionally, 538 and RCP have both debunked the "oversampling" claims. Claimed party ID is not a demographic variable, it's a fluid attitude. And tea partiers are calling themselves "independent" these days... | ||
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turdburgler
England6749 Posts
On October 23 2012 11:41 xDaunt wrote: I don't think that the current polls are reflective of where the election is going to be. Democrats are still bing oversampled in a lot of polls, reflecting turnouts closer to 2008 (or even more favorable to Obama) rather than 2010 turnouts, which this election will be much closer to. Even with those lopsided samples, the polls have clearly moved about 10 points towards Romney and are still moving in his direction. Long story short, I'm not pulling shit out of my ass when I say that Romney is going to win. There is a method to the madness. nate silver is still predicting a 40 point EC victory for obama with 67% certainty of victory. | ||
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{CC}StealthBlue
United States41117 Posts
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Darknat
United States122 Posts
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Swazi Spring
United States415 Posts
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