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President Obama Re-Elected - Page 1369

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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here.

The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301
Pandemona *
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Charlie Sheens House51485 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-07 08:42:15
November 07 2012 08:41 GMT
#27361
Anyone got a picture of the map of US with the colours for each state on?(As in who they voted for) xD

Can't find it on my news site >.<

Also, woop easiest £20 i ever earnt, go Obama!
ModeratorTeam Liquid Football Thread Guru! - Chelsea FC ♥
hypercube
Profile Joined April 2010
Hungary2735 Posts
November 07 2012 08:42 GMT
#27362
On November 07 2012 17:09 msl wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:07 Fanatic-Templar wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:04 mcmartini wrote:
I see a number of Americans on facebook, twitter saying they're coming to Australia while bitching about socialism. Australia has new start (the dole, money to the unemployed), student loans through the government (HECS) and medicare. I am just so confused.


Yeah, I'm not exactly sure where disappointed right-wingers can threaten to emigrate without sounding foolish. Most countries whose politics I even vaguely know about are to the left of the United States.


Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:08 acker wrote:
Is there even a first world country that's right of the United States?



Hungary might suit.


Not sure why you think that. On economic issues Hungary is as leftist as most of Europe, indeed there's a lot of populist stuff that would make American liberals shout communism.

Socially there's a bunch of conservative rethoric but the legal framework is still mostly liberal. In particular criminal justice is far to the left of the US. I guess that's true for every non-muslim country though.

There are some EU countries that might be to the right of US in some economic issues. E.g Slovakia has a low flat income-tax rate and mostly personal insurance based health-care. Don't know what the backup system for non-insured people looks like.

Relative to economic performance probably every single EU country has a stronger social net than the US. And as far as I know nowhere is the right to bear arms enshrined in the constitution. It's just something that conservative emigrees will have to get used to.
"Sending people in rockets to other planets is a waste of money better spent on sending rockets into people on this planet."
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
November 07 2012 08:43 GMT
#27363
On November 07 2012 17:22 calin wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:19 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:04 mcmartini wrote:
I see a number of Americans on facebook, twitter saying they're coming to Australia while bitching about socialism. Australia has new start (the dole, money to the unemployed), student loans through the government (HECS) and medicare. I am just so confused.

The US is pretty comparable to Australia on social programs. So if someone in the US was to fear an encroachment of the state, Australia would be a relative safe haven.


Wtf..no it's not. Australia is definitely left of the US when it comes to 'social programs'.

Really? Australia has a smaller government than the us (% of GDP) and superannuation is a wet dream for many right-wingers in the US.
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
November 07 2012 08:43 GMT
#27364
On November 07 2012 17:41 Pandemona wrote:
Anyone got a picture of the map of US with the colours for each state on?(As in who they voted for) xD

Can't find it on my news site >.<

Also, woop easiest £20 i ever earnt, go Obama!


I'm using CBC's. I don't know if this is what you want.
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
StarStrider
Profile Joined August 2011
United States689 Posts
November 07 2012 08:44 GMT
#27365
On November 07 2012 17:41 Pandemona wrote:
Anyone got a picture of the map of US with the colours for each state on?(As in who they voted for) xD

Can't find it on my news site >.<

Also, woop easiest £20 i ever earnt, go Obama!


http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results/
Spontaneous Pneumothorax sucks, please keep MVP sC in your thoughts. sC fighting! 힘내세요
Fanatic-Templar
Profile Joined February 2010
Canada5819 Posts
November 07 2012 08:45 GMT
#27366
On November 07 2012 17:42 hypercube wrote:
And as far as I know nowhere is the right to bear arms enshrined in the constitution.


If it's guns you want, I'm pretty sure Switzerland could satisfy.
I bear this sig to commemorate the loss of the team icon that commemorated Oversky's 2008-2009 Proleague Round 1 performance.
p4NDemik
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States13896 Posts
November 07 2012 08:46 GMT
#27367
If you've been following Nate Silver's Presidential and Senate models not much has been surprising, but the remaining senate races may hold the only true surprises outside of House races. At last check Heidi Heitkamp is leading by 3,000 votes in North Dakota with just one precinct remaining. This was a state almost everyone thought was going to go Republican as far as I'm aware - would be a major upset. Jon Tester narrowly leads over Denny Rehberg, 49% to 45% with 65% of the precincts reporting. Less of a surprise, polling data showed Tester doing well but there was not an air of confidence about this seat going in. Shelly Berkley almost defeated Dean Heller, but it looks like that race is just about over as the precincts in Las Vegas and Reno are all reported and the remaining precincts lie outside the cities in favorable Republican turf.

As of right now the Senate Picture is 51 Democrats, 2 Independents expected to caucus with the Democrats, 45 Republicans, and the two races that favor Democrats at the moment. A net gain of one seat was a possibility however unlikely going into last night, a gain of two seats was near unheard of afaik. Interesting stuff.
Moderator
Pandemona *
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Charlie Sheens House51485 Posts
November 07 2012 08:46 GMT
#27368
Wow closer than i thought 0.O

Should of been better odds on this shit!
ModeratorTeam Liquid Football Thread Guru! - Chelsea FC ♥
bOneSeven
Profile Blog Joined January 2012
Romania685 Posts
November 07 2012 08:49 GMT
#27369
God damn it...Now the world doesn't seem as stupid as I thought it could be. Well after the failure that were the last 4 years of Obama...Let's see if this time its less failish.
Planet earth is blue and there's nothing I can do
Souma
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
2nd Worst City in CA8938 Posts
November 07 2012 08:49 GMT
#27370
On November 07 2012 17:43 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:22 calin wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:19 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:04 mcmartini wrote:
I see a number of Americans on facebook, twitter saying they're coming to Australia while bitching about socialism. Australia has new start (the dole, money to the unemployed), student loans through the government (HECS) and medicare. I am just so confused.

The US is pretty comparable to Australia on social programs. So if someone in the US was to fear an encroachment of the state, Australia would be a relative safe haven.


Wtf..no it's not. Australia is definitely left of the US when it comes to 'social programs'.

Really? Australia has a smaller government than the us (% of GDP) and superannuation is a wet dream for many right-wingers in the US.


% of GDP is a bad measure of the size of government. Japan's bureaucracy is less than half the size of the U.S.'s as a % of GDP but their government by all measures is "bigger." U.S. is just terrible at spending money.
Writer
EleanorRIgby
Profile Joined March 2008
Canada3923 Posts
November 07 2012 08:50 GMT
#27371
On November 07 2012 17:14 heliusx wrote:
Someone posted this earlier. http://mittromneycentral.com/community/chat/ Are these real people? wtf?


omg those people make obama look like hitler WOW they are mad and very racist
savior did nothing wrong
urashimakt
Profile Joined October 2009
United States1591 Posts
November 07 2012 08:50 GMT
#27372
On November 07 2012 17:33 paralleluniverse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:31 farvacola wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:27 paralleluniverse wrote:
President Obama’s dramatic re-election victory was not a sign that a fractured nation had finally come together on Election Day. But it was a strong endorsement of economic policies that stress job growth, health care reform, tax increases and balanced deficit reduction — and of moderate policies on immigration, abortion and same-sex marriage. It was a repudiation of Reagan-era bromides about tax-cutting and trickle-down economics, and of the politics of fear, intolerance and disinformation.

The president’s victory depended heavily on Midwestern Rust Belt states like Ohio, where the bailout of the auto industry — which Mr. Obama engineered and Mr. Romney opposed — proved widely popular for the simple reason that it worked.

More broadly, Midwestern voters seemed to endorse the president’s argument that the government has a significant role in creating private-sector jobs and boosting the economy. They rejected Mr. Romney’s position that Washington should simply stay out of such matters and let the free market work its will.

The Republicans’ last-ditch attempt to steal away Pennsylvania by stressing unemployment was a failure there and elsewhere. Voters who said unemployment was a major issue voted mainly for Mr. Obama.

[...]

Still, Mr. Obama’s victory did not show a united country. Richer Americans supported Mr. Romney, while poorer Americans tended to vote for Mr. Obama.

[...]

Mr. Romney’s strategy of blaming Mr. Obama for just about everything, while serenely assuring Americans he had a plan to cut the deficit without raising taxes or making major cuts in Medicare, simply did not work.

A solid majority of voters said President George W. Bush was to blame for the state of the economy rather than Mr. Obama. And voters showed more subtlety in their economic analysis than Mr. Romney probably expected. Those who thought the housing market and unemployment were the nation’s biggest problems said they voted for Mr. Obama. Those most concerned about taxes voted heavily for Mr. Romney.

Significantly, 60 percent of voters said taxes should be raised either on the rich or on everyone. Only 35 percent said they should not be raised at all; that group, naturally, went heavily for Mr. Romney. The polling made it clear that Americans were unhappy with the economic status quo, and substantial numbers of voters said the economy was getting worse. But Mr. Romney did not seem to persuade voters that the deficit was a crushing problem. Only 1 in 10 voters said the deficit was the most important issue facing the country.

Republicans had to be disappointed in the results of their unrelenting assault on Mr. Obama’s health care reform law. Only around a quarter of Americans said it should be repealed in its entirety.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/opinion/president-obamas-majority.html?ref=opinion

Yep, this election should be read as a convincing rejection of reckless Republican economic policy and a mandate for the Obama economic program.

Unfortunately, fucking Mitch McConnell seems to see things very differently. His response was appalling quite frankly; I hope his constituency wakes up and smells the bullshit some day, and I really hope he is as out of touch with the Republican Party as some would suggest.

What did he say?

His number 1 priority is to make Obama's 2nd term hell?

He said this:

“The voters have not endorsed the failures or excesses of the president’s first term, they have simply given him more time to finish the job they asked him to do together with a Congress that restored balance to Washington after two years of one-party control.

“Now it’s time for the president to propose solutions that actually have a chance of passing the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a closely-divided Senate, step up to the plate on the challenges of the moment, and deliver in a way that he did not in his first four years in office.

-Mitch McConnel

Who dat ninja?
nojok
Profile Joined May 2011
France15845 Posts
November 07 2012 08:51 GMT
#27373
I can't find the abstention rate on the internet.
"Back then teams that won were credited, now it's called throw. I think it's sad." - Kuroky - Flap Flap Wings!
armada[sb]
Profile Joined August 2011
United States432 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-07 08:53:17
November 07 2012 08:51 GMT
#27374
EDIT: Well, we've legalized gay marriage in MD, next stop: marijuana!
#Hitpoint @ GameSurge (IDLE=BAN)
farvacola
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
United States18828 Posts
November 07 2012 08:52 GMT
#27375
On November 07 2012 17:46 p4NDemik wrote:
If you've been following Nate Silver's Presidential and Senate models not much has been surprising, but the remaining senate races may hold the only true surprises outside of House races. At last check Heidi Heitkamp is leading by 3,000 votes in North Dakota with just one precinct remaining. This was a state almost everyone thought was going to go Republican as far as I'm aware - would be a major upset. Jon Tester narrowly leads over Denny Rehberg, 49% to 45% with 65% of the precincts reporting. Less of a surprise, polling data showed Tester doing well but there was not an air of confidence about this seat going in. Shelly Berkley almost defeated Dean Heller, but it looks like that race is just about over as the precincts in Las Vegas and Reno are all reported and the remaining precincts lie outside the cities in favorable Republican turf.

As of right now the Senate Picture is 51 Democrats, 2 Independents expected to caucus with the Democrats, 45 Republicans, and the two races that favor Democrats at the moment. A net gain of one seat was a possibility however unlikely going into last night, a gain of two seats was near unheard of afaik. Interesting stuff.

I love it, I think the senate races this election cycle are going to end up being far more significant than people might have first thought. So many awesome firsts: New Hampshire is now represented nationally by all women I believe, and the election of Tammy Baldwin is an exciting credit to equality. Good stuff, I must say. Now we just have to see how the Democrats deal with the House.
"when the Dead Kennedys found out they had skinhead fans, they literally wrote a song titled 'Nazi Punks Fuck Off'"
Daigomi
Profile Blog Joined May 2006
South Africa4316 Posts
November 07 2012 08:53 GMT
#27376
On November 07 2012 17:22 Supamang wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:07 DannyJ wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:01 Sub40APM wrote:
So Nate Silver has now predicted 2 elections in a row, on a state by state level correctly. Its too bad that punditocracy isnt going to be punished but I truly and genuinely hope he posts one of those "eat shit and die" tweets tomorrow and tags everyone who called him out.



Pretty sure he got Indiana wrong last time... close enough i guess.

Yeah he predicted 49/50 last election. Indiana was the state he got wrong, but the vote went the other way by 0.1%

I like that his model seems to be so accurate. Maybe people might start paying a little more attention to math and actual facts in political punditry. I can always dream right?

If you read his posts on the model, it becomes clear why it's so accurate. He doesn't simply aggregate the polls or use a weighted average of the polls, it's considerably more complex. For example, in one post he discusses the simulations he runs in which he mentions that Ohio winning in the simulations increases the chances that Iowa would win as well. At the very least, that implies that he also considers the correlation between the votes in different states, but it could suggest an even more intricate model where state demographics are also included. He also mentions in some of the more recent polls how a disparity between the popular vote and electoral vote increases the riskiness in the model. That implies the model not only looks at the factors, but also the interaction between them.

To be honest, a pure weighted average model would be pretty accurate. Include correlations between state voting and you have something that would probably be accurate 95% of the time and up. Add in demographics, interactions, and the like and you can have an incredibly accurate model, as long as you don't overdefine it.

My biggest concern with his model would be that it seems to overestimate the risks in each state. If we were going on the odds he gave, you'd expect one or even two states to be wrong this year, and probably the same in 2008. Instead, having only 1 state wrong in two elections could suggest that he slightly underestimates the favourite's chances. On the other hand, since his model also incorporates the possibility of a freak event affecting the results, perhaps it is accurate. A freak event would result in the favourite being underrated when no freak event occurs, and overrated when it does occur which would balance out on average.

I guess what I'm saying is that, from what I've read of it, Nate Silver's model is very, very good and that seems to be borne out in the results.
Moderator
JonnyBNoHo
Profile Joined July 2011
United States6277 Posts
November 07 2012 08:56 GMT
#27377
On November 07 2012 17:49 Souma wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 07 2012 17:43 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:22 calin wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:19 JonnyBNoHo wrote:
On November 07 2012 17:04 mcmartini wrote:
I see a number of Americans on facebook, twitter saying they're coming to Australia while bitching about socialism. Australia has new start (the dole, money to the unemployed), student loans through the government (HECS) and medicare. I am just so confused.

The US is pretty comparable to Australia on social programs. So if someone in the US was to fear an encroachment of the state, Australia would be a relative safe haven.


Wtf..no it's not. Australia is definitely left of the US when it comes to 'social programs'.

Really? Australia has a smaller government than the us (% of GDP) and superannuation is a wet dream for many right-wingers in the US.


% of GDP is a bad measure of the size of government. Japan's bureaucracy is less than half the size of the U.S.'s as a % of GDP but their government by all measures is "bigger." U.S. is just terrible at spending money.

If you have a better measure, I'm all ears (err, eyes).
419fish
Profile Joined November 2011
United States35 Posts
November 07 2012 08:57 GMT
#27378
On November 07 2012 17:46 Pandemona wrote:
Wow closer than i thought 0.O

Should of been better odds on this shit!


I see you are being sarcastic but it was close, Obama won by about one percent maybe two now I don't know the final numbers. the electoral college can really over inflate the margins of victory.
DannyJ
Profile Joined March 2010
United States5110 Posts
November 07 2012 08:57 GMT
#27379
What the hell happens now that Colorado and Washington have legalized marijuana? Is this going to be some sort of supreme court mess?
419fish
Profile Joined November 2011
United States35 Posts
November 07 2012 09:02 GMT
#27380
On November 07 2012 17:57 DannyJ wrote:
What the hell happens now that Colorado and Washington have legalized marijuana? Is this going to be some sort of supreme court mess?


yes that's all that's going to happen precedent says the federal government will be able to overrule the law but I'm hopeful the supreme court will give more power back to states. but as a Coloradoan I don't actually expect weed to be legal anytime soon
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