On November 07 2012 15:52 cz wrote: So who is going to take the heat for this failure? Romney, Christie, Ryan, someone else?
They'll blame Sandy.
They ran an out of touch candidate with an out of touch platform against a weak incumbent and will look for excuses outside their own party.
Actually, many Romney supporters said Sandy helped Obama while i was watching some "romney chat" site, lol.
Sandy did help the President, not enough to swing the election entirely, but it definitely helped.
Sandy froze everything in place and that was the best thing that could have happened for obama.
Or, alternatively, people realized that certain governemnt functions like disaster relief are better left in the hands of people that actually place competent people at the top of FEMA instead of using it as a dumping ground for washed up political consultants.
On October 21 2012 06:54 DeepElemBlues wrote: Romney's gonna win 40 states, it's gonna be the most hilarious night of my life.
Florida is gone.
The rest of the south is gone. Obama is going to lose North Carolina and Virginia both.
Romney's erased an 11-point deficit in Wisconsin in ~2 weeks, he's down by 1 there now. A 7-8 point deficit in Ohio is now a tie. He's leading in Pennsylvania. He's only a few points behind in Michigan. Iowa and Nevada are a tie. All of these states had Obama in the lead by 4-10 points less than a month ago.
Obama's last chance is the final debate and we saw last week that he isn't going to land a knockout punch on Romney in a debate.
The Obama campaign took out a $15 million loan from Bank of America this week, because they desperately need money to buy advertising in states they thought were safe, like Wisconsin and Michigan. Their fundraising can't keep up with their expenses (wow, what a shocker there).
The preference cascade started after the first debate and hasn't stopped, though it has slowed a little. Romney will win nationally by a margin similar to 2008 (6-7 points) and will have a lopsided electoral vote victory. There just isn't anything Obama can do, he's been trying like a desperate man to stop the shift to Romney for two weeks and it hasn't worked.
Unless Obama has pictures of Romney uppercutting a 10 year old or something, this election cake is baked. Romney is going to be the next president.
On November 07 2012 15:56 Saryph wrote: Even though we mentioned it a few times a dozen pages ago, I admit I am quite excited over this whole statehood for Puerto Rico possibility.
Having never seen a state added to our nation, the concept is so exciting to me, even though I am not quite sure why.
The only problem with that would be they couldn't have any senate or house or presidential voting ability until the 2020 census.
The Senate wouldn't require a census, would it? But yeah, the perhaps they would just keep their nonvoting delegates, or would it be constitutional to give them some temporary status in the House?
On November 07 2012 16:04 Hrrrrm wrote: Obama hit it out of the park. Now Democrats need to get out again in 2014 and win more house seats.
Im sure the tea party will cost them 2-3 seats again which will set up a landslide in senate in 2016.
Tea party is dead after this. No one takes them seriously anymore. Democrats show up they win. Obama is going to try to pass immigration reform in his 2nd term. It'll be great to see Republicans fighting him on that. Keep losing that Hispanic vote.
On November 07 2012 16:02 Qwyn wrote: Well, well, Obama. Good luck getting anything done in your next four years, LOL.
At least something would have happened in the other direction...
This election highlighted the stupidity of the EC system more than ever...good luck Mr. President.
I hate politics...there's no fucking transparency :/.
Yep..
I knew weeks ago, just based on many collections of EC polls, that Obama was pretty much guaranteed to win.
On one hand, democracy doesn't make sense when EC is used, on the other, EC are probably actually educated and qualified to pick a proper president moreso than 99% of citizens
On November 07 2012 16:04 Hrrrrm wrote: Obama hit it out of the park. Now Democrats need to get out again in 2014 and win more house seats.
Im sure the tea party will cost them 2-3 seats again which will set up a landslide in senate in 2016.
The house is so uncompetitive it is very hard to move ether way. Dems will start chipping away at it if the reb keep up there party of no but it is just going to take awile.
On November 07 2012 15:58 farvacola wrote: I have to repost this, as it was my favorite prediction given all thread!
On October 21 2012 06:54 DeepElemBlues wrote: Romney's gonna win 40 states, it's gonna be the most hilarious night of my life.
Florida is gone.
The rest of the south is gone. Obama is going to lose North Carolina and Virginia both. Romney's erased an 11-point deficit in Wisconsin in ~2 weeks, he's down by 1 there now. A 7-8 point deficit in Ohio is now a tie. He's leading in Pennsylvania. He's only a few points behind in Michigan. Iowa and Nevada are a tie. All of these states had Obama in the lead by 4-10 points less than a month ago.
Obama's last chance is the final debate and we saw last week that he isn't going to land a knockout punch on Romney in a debate.
The Obama campaign took out a $15 million loan from Bank of America this week, because they desperately need money to buy advertising in states they thought were safe, like Wisconsin and Michigan. Their fundraising can't keep up with their expenses (wow, what a shocker there).
The preference cascade started after the first debate and hasn't stopped, though it has slowed a little. Romney will win nationally by a margin similar to 2008 (6-7 points) and will have a lopsided electoral vote victory. There just isn't anything Obama can do, he's been trying like a desperate man to stop the shift to Romney for two weeks and it hasn't worked.
Unless Obama has pictures of Romney uppercutting a 10 year old or something, this election cake is baked. Romney is going to be the next president.
On November 07 2012 16:04 Hrrrrm wrote: Obama hit it out of the park. Now Democrats need to get out again in 2014 and win more house seats.
Im sure the tea party will cost them 2-3 seats again which will set up a landslide in senate in 2016.
Tea party is dead after this. No one takes them seriously anymore. Democrats show up they win. Obama is going to try to pass immigration reform in his 2nd term. It'll be great to see Republicans fighting him on that. Keep losing that Hispanic vote.
You can say they are dead but they are still a majority in the primaries and thats all that matters. It is the sole reason that doing immigration reform will be so hard. Not to mention they will make argument that the only reason they lost is because Romney isnt a "real" conservative and might move further to the right.
To the Democrats and Liberals around here congratulations on having the President win re-election. Hopefully this time he's serious about getting input and working with the other side to actually get the problems in our country fixed. I didn't vote for him either time but four years ago I hoped he was successful and tonight I hope he is as well.
Here's to also hoping that the GOP listens to some of us and moves into governing more than campaigning. This doesn't mean I want us to give up our core values of smaller and more efficient government and personal liberties but it's time to give a little to get a little and to recognize that personal liberties shouldn't mean that you get to impose your morals on other people.
Thanks to all for a fun night. I said it at the beginning and I'll say it now, I <3 election night!
Man, I hope Obama does his best to stop listening to republicans. He spent his last 4 years wasting time with that. All out socialism and landslide social reform go go go
Obama, for the love of all things holy, delicious, and cute, please pass a campaign finance reform amendment. No way the GOP can shoot it down without shooting themselves in the foot.
wow. evidently miami carried so hard i couldn't believe it and underestimated how hard it carried.
the guys at http://election.princeton.edu also were pretty much right on the money, as the underlying data was pretty good after all. the aggregators pretty much clustered around 300 EC for obama