|
|
Thank you.
|
|
|
On November 07 2012 14:51 igotmyown wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:48 Graviton wrote:On November 07 2012 14:45 Orek wrote: Bush won McCain failed Romney failed
So, relatively liberal Republican has hard time winning vs Democrat? Next time around, they might try more tea party style candidate? All three are more conservative than Reagan, funnily enough. They need to start appealing to more moderate base (John Huntsman 2016). I'd say Reagan was more conservative than all of them. George W Bush tried to seem moderate (compassionate conservativism) in 2000, McCain's the maverick, romney's just vanilla. Reagan started trickle down economics, slashing welfare, huge defense budgets. Yeah, I didn't articulate that well at all, Reagan just appealed to a wider voter base and was far more willing to compromise on a variety of issues. He also passed Therapeutic Abortion bill and increased taxes after his large first year cuts, so I'd say he wasn't necessarily more conservative.
|
On November 07 2012 14:54 Lyter wrote: Is there a link for the concession speech? Link
|
On November 07 2012 14:38 Signet wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:35 hypercube wrote:On November 07 2012 14:22 paralleluniverse wrote:On November 07 2012 14:11 Stutters695 wrote: Is Nate Silver going 50/50 again? He went 49/50 last time. It looks like 50/50 this time. To be fair a better score would be something around 46. Giving Obama a 50.3% chance of winning Florida should be worth 0.503 points, not 1. Of course his opponents wouldn't have given him that slack so I understand the sentiment. What you want to do is compare the number of states he actually got correct to the total amount of confidence he had in his predictions. ie, if Silver gave 4 states a 75% chance of being correct, but he was actually right on all 4, he's underestimating his model's accuracy by saying just 75%. Ideally, over the long run, the total states he gets correct should equal the total sum of his probabilities. Other statisticians like Sam Wang or Drew Linzer, whose predictions are also doing very well tonight, expressed higher confidence in their picks. In fact one of those two has criticized Silver for underselling his own model with low confidences.
I don't really know what the correct approach is. One the one hand you want to reward the model for creating high confidence predictions (i.e getting the most out of the data). OTOH, a model that gets exactly 3/4 right for the 75% predictions is in a sense better than a model that claims 80% confidence for the same events but nails all of them. The second one seems to be more effective but the first one understands its own power better.
|
On November 07 2012 14:55 Probe1 wrote: That's like saying I'm really good lategame but getting supply blocked for the first ten minutes lol.
But it's not that Huntsman was blocking his own supply - it's the Republican nomination process.
|
On November 07 2012 14:55 Voltaire wrote:Oregon didn't legalize weed  I'm sad to say that Washington is now a superior state. Federal law still says marijuana is illegal, so don't cheer so much yet.
|
A fantastically bland speech.
Wewt. Waiting for Obama's speech.
|
|
LOL saying that choosing Ryan was the best decision he ever made besides his wife.
|
On November 07 2012 14:56 jpak wrote: LOL saying that choosing Ryan was the best decision he ever made besides his wife.
inb4 gay joke
|
On November 07 2012 14:57 ticklishmusic wrote:Show nested quote +On November 07 2012 14:56 jpak wrote: LOL saying that choosing Ryan was the best decision he ever made besides his wife. inb4 gay joke
DAE think Romney's gay?
|
the people ann romney has touched.
|
On November 07 2012 14:56 jpak wrote: LOL saying that choosing Ryan was the best decision he ever made besides his wife.
Yeah, it's great when your running-mate makes stops at soup kitches without asking and loses his home state.
|
On November 07 2012 14:56 jpak wrote: LOL saying that choosing Ryan was the best decision he ever made besides his wife. # TRIPPY . I M O
|
Overly accommodating so far... Okay, not throwing VP under the bus... Big pain-filled smile...
Nothing juicy yet. I'm impressed.
A lot of thank yous.
|
Thank god in heaven he's conceding. The nightmarish idea of Romney leading our country into further global destabilization and irrecoverable debt is over. I can finally return to being unnerved by our current economic troubles.
|
This is a thank you speech. 
Well he did have a few sentences for Obama.
|
Very gracious concession. I didn't expect anything else.
|
|
|
|