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Hey guys! We'll be closing this thread shortly, but we will make an American politics megathread where we can continue the discussions in here. The new thread can be found here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=383301 | ||
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Grettin
42417 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:08 nttea wrote: I'm gonna be here all night! whohoo  american elections are awesome. Cheers to everyone who voted.Same here and i agree. I dunno, i really don't care about my country politics but this gets my attention and interest. | ||
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Mysticesper
United States1183 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:11 radiatoren wrote: Floridas first counted counties are showing a 65% republican advantage, however, expect it to turn out far more balanced. I'm seeing 55-45 obama advantage with 4% in. | ||
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Skeltons
22 Posts
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UnKooL
Korea (South)1667 Posts
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ey215
United States546 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:15 UnKooL wrote: Does no major networks broadcast the coverage online? I'm watching MSNBC through a third party site because I have no TV. ABC has their major network coverage online http://abcnews.go.com/live edit: It may originally bring up their online team's coverage, but underneath in a "Watch Now" box you should be able to change the stream to the actual network feed. I've been watching ABC on election nights since I was little with Peter Jennings. It's not an election night without George Will for me. | ||
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radiatoren
Denmark1907 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:13 Mysticesper wrote: I'm seeing 55-45 obama advantage with 4% in. It is still wobbling a lot. I expect the republicans taking more advantage, but a very late swing towards democrats. | ||
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RCMDVA
United States708 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:16 radiatoren wrote: It is still wobbling a lot. I expect the republicans taking more advantage, but a very late swing towards democrats. Not really. The panhandle of Florida goes heavily Republican. It's in a different time zone. | ||
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babylon
8765 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:09 Rassy wrote: Hmm that is interesting, though isnt this a bit weird corelation to look for? Maybe there is more correlation between macro economic variables and the presidency switching from one party to the other. I actually had to crunch some of his numbers. There's actually a pretty significant interaction between incumbency and GDP growth rate in first three quarters of the election year from what I see in his model. Anyways, his final word on this election is the following: This is the last vote prediction before the election. Given the NIPA third-quarter data that were released today, the value of G is 1.03, the value of P is 1.57, and the value of Z is still 1. The predicted two-party vote share for Obama is 49.0 percent (VP), and the predicted two-party vote share in the House for the Democrats is 46.0 percent (VC). The presidential election is thus predicted to be very close regarding vote share, as it has been since October of last year. Obama has lost 1.0 percentage points of vote share between October 30, 2011, and now. The growth rate in the first three quarters of this year (G) turned out to be smaller than was predicted last October, as also did the inflation rate variable (P). The smaller G lowers the predicted vote share, and the smaller P raises it. On net, the predicted vote share fell 1.0 percentage points. The standard error of the vote-share equation is at least 2.5 percentage points (see the November 2010 update above), and so 50.0 percent is well within a one standard deviation error band centered at 49.0. The present results thus have a very limited amount to say about the likely winner of the presidential election. This is especially true in the current election because it could be that Obama loses the popular vote but wins in the electoral college. From: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm | ||
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heliusx
United States2306 Posts
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ticklishmusic
United States15977 Posts
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paralleluniverse
4065 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:18 ticklishmusic wrote: Obama up significantly up in Florida and Virginia right now. I wouldn't read anything into the Florida results. Every poll tracker says it be pretty much 50-50. | ||
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ragz_gt
9172 Posts
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oneofthem
Cayman Islands24199 Posts
you can compare 2008 and 2012 results on this map. so far it seems that we have more polarization, with commie color side gaining a bit more turnout consistent gain of 3ish% in the red counties, uncertainty in blue cities. not sure about suburbs | ||
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revel8
United Kingdom3022 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:15 UnKooL wrote: Does no major networks broadcast the coverage online? I'm watching MSNBC through a third party site because I have no TV. BBC has coverage online. It is neutral too which probably gives it an advantage over domestic US channels. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20009190 | ||
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Discerpo
263 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:15 UnKooL wrote: Does no major networks broadcast the coverage online? I'm watching MSNBC through a third party site because I have no TV. If you can get access to a BBC stream, they're doing pretty decent coverage. | ||
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Stutters695
2610 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:11 radiatoren wrote: Floridas first counted counties are showing a 65% republican advantage, however, expect it to turn out far more balanced. Which countries were they? I'd expect they were smaller counties and it'll really balance out once Miami-Dade and Hillsborough come in. | ||
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sc2superfan101
3583 Posts
Romney ahead in popular vote by 100K | ||
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Inquisitor1323
370 Posts
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paralleluniverse
4065 Posts
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Deathmanbob
United States2356 Posts
On November 07 2012 09:29 Inquisitor1323 wrote: wait how do they know that Obama won Vermont? Did everyone vote early? its how they know he won CA the seconds the polls close, everyone just knows | ||
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