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On June 15 2011 12:58 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Scary. It sounds like China is hoping that the SEA nations aren't able to unify themselves. A united group of SEA nations appealing to the international community, I'd assume, would keep them nice and safe ^_^ China doesn't have to worry about this. You're forgetting that there's more to SEA than Vietnam/Thailand/Philippines/etc. There are also countries more amenable to Chinese interests, such as Malaysia and Singapore. You're also forgetting Indonesia, Australia, and NZ, three major countries that are still considered part of SEA.
I think you underestimate ASEAN, 10 SEA nations are bound to each other through ASEAN, if anything that make China hesitates to go forward with some more aggrestion it is the united of ASEAN.
I don't think Singapore, Indonesia or any SEA countries will side with China on this matter, since if China actually got control of what it claimed they will be next under China's expanding claw.
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On June 15 2011 12:56 Empyrean wrote:
This is quite ironic, given the first part of your post. You seem to be quite antagonistic toward China, but not much of it is founded on hard evidence or reasoning.
Maybe you shouldn't post with such a tone if you don't know why?
Nothing is like china can afford a war anyway; it is too dependant on trade relations.
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On June 15 2011 12:58 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Scary. It sounds like China is hoping that the SEA nations aren't able to unify themselves. A united group of SEA nations appealing to the international community, I'd assume, would keep them nice and safe ^_^ China doesn't have to worry about this. You're forgetting that there's more to SEA than Vietnam/Thailand/Philippines/etc. There are also countries more amenable to Chinese interests, such as Malaysia and Singapore. You're also forgetting Indonesia, Australia, and NZ, three major countries that are still considered part of SEA.
Even though you're right, there does seem to be a trend of China being as ballsy as it thinks it can possibly be. I don't see any of China's relations to countries as friendly, but more so as opportunistic. Perhaps I come from a bias environment, but it seems like China would stop being friendly with their allies/trade partners as soon as it became a good idea.
Because of this, I, as one of the countries you listed, would actively be trying to have a backup plan.
On June 15 2011 13:04 TrainSamurai wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:56 Empyrean wrote:
This is quite ironic, given the first part of your post. You seem to be quite antagonistic toward China, but not much of it is founded on hard evidence or reasoning.
Maybe you shouldn't post with such a tone if you don't know why? Nothing is like china can afford a war anyway; it is too dependant on trade relations.
How is this any better than what you criticize him for doing? You say he isn't aware of facts, because he didn't list his facts. Then you proceed to not list facts. Hypocritical, in my opinion.
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On June 15 2011 08:37 gunman103 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 08:11 Endymion wrote:
Yeah, they're definitely getting ready to start a war with China right... If I was in the Chinese military, I would be really scared right about now. What? China is a superpower and Vietnam is a third world country that spends what little they have on military. China will win in a few days to a week if it comes to war (and it probably will).
Ever hear of afganistan?
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China is hungry for oil, that why shit is getting serious these days ...
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On June 15 2011 13:00 b0lt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:33 c3rberUs wrote:
Reality? I suggest you refer to the map in the OP for reality. Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:36 vohne wrote:
Look at any map of SEA with Spratley Islands, you will see that the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam are the countries closest to these Islands. "The archipelago lies off the coasts of the Philippines and Malaysia (Sabah), about one third of the way from there to southern Vietnam."
Feel free to do the research, and check some maps out. The spratley islands closest to the Philippines could be almost swimmable from the closest land area in the Philippines rofl. "It's close to the Philippines" would only matter if there were no prior claims to the territory. But they were already claimed, by both China and Vietnam (via France), for about 100 years before the Philippines decided they wanted them. Should Canada gain control of Alaska because it's closer to it than the contiguous U.S.?
I can see your point. It is apparent though that everyone has a historical claim, and that the argument based on this has been unresolvable thus far. Maybe it is best to divvy the islands up, in terms of distance from the claimants.
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On June 15 2011 13:07 Detwiler wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 08:37 gunman103 wrote:On June 15 2011 08:11 Endymion wrote:
Yeah, they're definitely getting ready to start a war with China right... If I was in the Chinese military, I would be really scared right about now. What? China is a superpower and Vietnam is a third world country that spends what little they have on military. China will win in a few days to a week if it comes to war (and it probably will). Ever hear of afganistan?
or even US vs Viet before.
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On June 15 2011 12:56 Empyrean wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:51 Caphe wrote:On June 15 2011 12:46 Mohdoo wrote:
Wait, China actually claims that much sea territory? Ridiculous. Do they enforce it in any way? Do the local countries around that area encounter anything negative as a result of it? The line war draw by some random Chinese official in the 70-80s. China has nothing near to what the claim and didn't enforce it until recently when China economy is bombing and their thirst for oil grow bigger and bigger each day. What worst is they teach Chinese student with this map for many years now. Most chinese now are thinking SEA nation violate China territory O_O. A communist nation with blind patriotism is bad, very bad. This is quite ironic, given the first part of your post. You seem to be quite antagonistic toward China, but not much of it is founded on hard evidence or reasoning. In any case, I find China's territorial claims on the Spratly Islands to be ridiculous, but you have to realize that even if the government drew up those claims in the 70s, by going back and saying "oh wait guys, we were actually unreasonable," they lose a lot of face internally and would be met with criticism. Many Chinese youth (well, the ones who aren't completely disaffected anyway) are quite nationalistic.
Ofc I am antagonistic toward China, look where I am from :D. Anyway but not without reasoning, I agree that the Spratly Islands are disputed and need to be solved by some diplomatic ways. But what I found disgusting here, is the claim of China water territory, and with that I strongly oppose China actions in the South China Sea.
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On June 15 2011 13:03 Caphe wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:58 Empyrean wrote:On June 15 2011 12:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Scary. It sounds like China is hoping that the SEA nations aren't able to unify themselves. A united group of SEA nations appealing to the international community, I'd assume, would keep them nice and safe ^_^ China doesn't have to worry about this. You're forgetting that there's more to SEA than Vietnam/Thailand/Philippines/etc. There are also countries more amenable to Chinese interests, such as Malaysia and Singapore. You're also forgetting Indonesia, Australia, and NZ, three major countries that are still considered part of SEA. I think you underestimate ASEAN, 10 SEA nations are bound to each other through ASEAN, if anything that make China hesitates to go forward with some more aggrestion it is the united of ASEAN. I don't think Singapore, Indonesia or any SEA countries will side with China on this matter, since if China actually got control of what it claimed they will be next under China's expanding claw.
I think the diplomatic pressure would come down to Australia. Australia walks with a big stick, carrying the military, economic, and diplomatic backing of NATO, sealed with AUSCANNZUKUS. If Australia backs the rest of ASEAN, China would be in a difficult diplomatic situation indeed.
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On June 15 2011 13:03 Consolidate wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:56 Empyrean wrote:On June 15 2011 12:51 Caphe wrote:On June 15 2011 12:46 Mohdoo wrote:
Wait, China actually claims that much sea territory? Ridiculous. Do they enforce it in any way? Do the local countries around that area encounter anything negative as a result of it? The line war draw by some random Chinese official in the 70-80s. China has nothing near to what the claim and didn't enforce it until recently when China economy is bombing and their thirst for oil grow bigger and bigger each day. What worst is they teach Chinese student with this map for many years now. Most chinese now are thinking SEA nation violate China territory O_O. A communist nation with blind patriotism is bad, very bad. This is quite ironic, given the first part of your post. You seem to be quite antagonistic toward China, but not much of it is founded on hard evidence or reasoning. In any case, I find China's territorial claims on the Spratly Islands to be ridiculous, but you have to realize that even if the government drew up those claims in the 70s, by going back and saying "oh wait guys, we were actually unreasonable," they lose a lot of face internally and would be met with criticism. Many Chinese youth (well, the ones who aren't completely disaffected anyway) are quite nationalistic. I don't know man. The Spratly's have never really been held by anyone for any significant length of time. Historically speaking, both China and Vietman claim to be the ones to have first charted them during ancient times. Proximity isn't a great justification for ownership - take Hawaii for example. I'm 99% sure that China will get the Spratlys because might makes right in cases like these.
Granted, however did you notice that their claim on the maritime claim of China conflicts with the already established territory of the Philippines. Disputed territory is one thing, grabbing sea waters that belongs to another country already is another.
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On June 15 2011 13:12 InvalidID wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 13:03 Caphe wrote:On June 15 2011 12:58 Empyrean wrote:On June 15 2011 12:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Scary. It sounds like China is hoping that the SEA nations aren't able to unify themselves. A united group of SEA nations appealing to the international community, I'd assume, would keep them nice and safe ^_^ China doesn't have to worry about this. You're forgetting that there's more to SEA than Vietnam/Thailand/Philippines/etc. There are also countries more amenable to Chinese interests, such as Malaysia and Singapore. You're also forgetting Indonesia, Australia, and NZ, three major countries that are still considered part of SEA. I think you underestimate ASEAN, 10 SEA nations are bound to each other through ASEAN, if anything that make China hesitates to go forward with some more aggrestion it is the united of ASEAN. I don't think Singapore, Indonesia or any SEA countries will side with China on this matter, since if China actually got control of what it claimed they will be next under China's expanding claw. I think the diplomatic pressure would come down to Australia. Australia walks with a big stick, carrying the military, economic, and diplomatic backing of NATO, sealed with AUSCANNZUKUS. If Australia backs the rest of ASEAN, China would be in a difficult diplomatic situation indeed.
Surely Australia can have a bit of sway, but the US is already involved.
"A US senator on Monday urged condemnation of China's behavior in maritime rifts with its neighbors, saying Washington has been too weak-kneed as tensions rise in the South China Sea.
Jim Webb, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia, introduced a bill that would denounce China for the use of force and urge it to seek a peaceful resolution to disputes."
And the Philippines has a defense treaty with the US, and the US is already sending a destroyer class vessel into the area. Also holding a joint SEA naval exercise this month I think.
Aus has a sway, but US is the determining factor.
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On June 15 2011 13:15 Consolidate wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 13:03 Caphe wrote:On June 15 2011 12:58 Empyrean wrote:On June 15 2011 12:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Scary. It sounds like China is hoping that the SEA nations aren't able to unify themselves. A united group of SEA nations appealing to the international community, I'd assume, would keep them nice and safe ^_^ China doesn't have to worry about this. You're forgetting that there's more to SEA than Vietnam/Thailand/Philippines/etc. There are also countries more amenable to Chinese interests, such as Malaysia and Singapore. You're also forgetting Indonesia, Australia, and NZ, three major countries that are still considered part of SEA. I think you underestimate ASEAN, 10 SEA nations are bound to each other through ASEAN, if anything that make China hesitates to go forward with some more aggrestion it is the united of ASEAN. I don't think Singapore, Indonesia or any SEA countries will side with China on this matter, since if China actually got control of what it claimed they will be next under China's expanding claw. Here's the problem: When asked individually, I'd wager ALL ASEAN nations would prioritize relations with China over Vietnam. ASEAN might consider trying stepping in in order to legitimize itself, but China will just tell them to piss of. Australia is crazy about China right now due to their excellent trade relations. As for the United States. If they have already told the Philippines to back off, what makes you they they will ever help Vietnam?
US didnt tel Philippines to back off. Read my posts
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This won't escalate into anything.
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On June 15 2011 13:17 vohne wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 13:15 Consolidate wrote:On June 15 2011 13:03 Caphe wrote:On June 15 2011 12:58 Empyrean wrote:On June 15 2011 12:54 Mohdoo wrote:
Scary. It sounds like China is hoping that the SEA nations aren't able to unify themselves. A united group of SEA nations appealing to the international community, I'd assume, would keep them nice and safe ^_^ China doesn't have to worry about this. You're forgetting that there's more to SEA than Vietnam/Thailand/Philippines/etc. There are also countries more amenable to Chinese interests, such as Malaysia and Singapore. You're also forgetting Indonesia, Australia, and NZ, three major countries that are still considered part of SEA. I think you underestimate ASEAN, 10 SEA nations are bound to each other through ASEAN, if anything that make China hesitates to go forward with some more aggrestion it is the united of ASEAN. I don't think Singapore, Indonesia or any SEA countries will side with China on this matter, since if China actually got control of what it claimed they will be next under China's expanding claw. Here's the problem: When asked individually, I'd wager ALL ASEAN nations would prioritize relations with China over Vietnam. ASEAN might consider trying stepping in in order to legitimize itself, but China will just tell them to piss of. Australia is crazy about China right now due to their excellent trade relations. As for the United States. If they have already told the Philippines to back off, what makes you they they will ever help Vietnam? US didnt tel Philippines to back off. Read my posts
I wasn't keeping up with the news. My mistake.
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Japan11776 Posts
On June 15 2011 13:00 b0lt wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:33 c3rberUs wrote:
Reality? I suggest you refer to the map in the OP for reality. Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:36 vohne wrote:
Look at any map of SEA with Spratley Islands, you will see that the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam are the countries closest to these Islands. "The archipelago lies off the coasts of the Philippines and Malaysia (Sabah), about one third of the way from there to southern Vietnam."
Feel free to do the research, and check some maps out. The spratley islands closest to the Philippines could be almost swimmable from the closest land area in the Philippines rofl. "It's close to the Philippines" would only matter if there were no prior claims to the territory. But they were already claimed, by both China and Vietnam (via France), for about 100 years before the Philippines decided they wanted them. Should Canada gain control of Alaska because it's closer to it than the contiguous U.S.?
To answer your question. No, because Alaska is not disputed.
edit: Also that's they're claim, other nations have their own claim on why they should have the islands.
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"A US-led naval exercise in the Sulu Sea involving the Philippines and five other members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) began on Tuesday.
In the next 10 days, combined naval units from the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the United States will be in the Sulu Sea, Malacca Strait and Celebes Sea.
The naval exercise will be followed by another naval training exercise between the Philippines and the United States in the Sulu Sea. The Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (Carat) exercise from June 28 to July 8 will be held in the waters east of Palawan.
Dubbed the Southeast Asia Cooperation and Training (Seacat), the annual maritime exercise initiated by the United States covers training against terrorism, transnational crimes “and other maritime threats.”
A Philippine Navy spokesperson said the naval exercises had been arranged before fresh tension broke out between the Philippines and China over the disputed Spratly islands."
Source: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/14983/us-leads-asean-war-games-in-sulu-palawan
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On June 15 2011 13:03 Consolidate wrote:Show nested quote +On June 15 2011 12:56 Empyrean wrote:On June 15 2011 12:51 Caphe wrote:On June 15 2011 12:46 Mohdoo wrote:
Wait, China actually claims that much sea territory? Ridiculous. Do they enforce it in any way? Do the local countries around that area encounter anything negative as a result of it? The line war draw by some random Chinese official in the 70-80s. China has nothing near to what the claim and didn't enforce it until recently when China economy is bombing and their thirst for oil grow bigger and bigger each day. What worst is they teach Chinese student with this map for many years now. Most chinese now are thinking SEA nation violate China territory O_O. A communist nation with blind patriotism is bad, very bad. This is quite ironic, given the first part of your post. You seem to be quite antagonistic toward China, but not much of it is founded on hard evidence or reasoning. In any case, I find China's territorial claims on the Spratly Islands to be ridiculous, but you have to realize that even if the government drew up those claims in the 70s, by going back and saying "oh wait guys, we were actually unreasonable," they lose a lot of face internally and would be met with criticism. Many Chinese youth (well, the ones who aren't completely disaffected anyway) are quite nationalistic. I don't know man. The Spratly's have never really been held by anyone for any significant length of time. Historically speaking, both China and Vietman claim to be the ones to have first charted them during ancient times. Proximity isn't a great justification for ownership - take Hawaii for example. I'm 99% sure that China will get the Spratlys because might makes right in cases like these.
That is true, the distance has hardly any say on it, just look at US maritime territory for example.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_territory
The islands seems to changed hands quite a few time. Surprisingly the only inhabitable islands are the Itu Aba Island, and is currently under ROC (Taiwan)'s control.
If you read The Military conflict under http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands , you will see the last real conflict were at WW2, which Japan surrendered and the islands fell onto ROC's hand, but civi war between PRC and ROC creates a vaccum, and so on and so on.
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EPT
