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hoemuffin
United States72 Posts
Personally, I don't have enough time to really drill down on single stocks, and honestly I doubt I have the risk appetite, especially for larger stocks which are a bear to break down. My job also puts pretty hefty constraints on what I can and cannot invest in. Also trading is not the same thing as investing. | ||
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buhhy
United States1113 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:06 happyft wrote: If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books) Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely). Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc. Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young. I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though. I'm also an investing noob, so there's that. | ||
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happyft
United States470 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:13 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote: started with about $5,000 but increased capital both off of profits and from using more money from outside of the market (total profit was $10,000 but towards the end I was trading about $20,000) maybe not technically day trading, i'd sometimes hold on to it for as long as a week or two - i started trading (small amounts) of ATVI in '08, but never really went deep until '10 traded based on the market, what i knew about release dates (little), and whim (obviously not a good answer, but it's the truth) Wow, serious kudos to you. I'm really, really impressed b/c ATVI is known to be a trader's stock -- it hasn't broken out of the $10-13 range in 2 years. Either you're really lucky or you just stare at the screen for 7.5 hrs every day, or both =P But the fact you've been doing it for an extended period of time indicates skill, especially in a trader's stock (I know in the hedge fund world 5 years is even too short, but in day trading, god...if you can make money over a multi-month time period, that's serious stuff). To ya'll day trader doubters, I used to not believe in day trading either until I actually started working closer to the stock market. The truth is, when you stare at a stock long enough (and I mean just stare at it for the whole 9:30am-4pm trading session every day), get know its fundamentals, how the stock reacts to positive and negative news over many events and catalysts, you really get to know the stock very intimately -- and I believe you can effectively day trade very well based on that. But yeah ... it's also damn risky. And takes a crapload of time. I guess it's like making a living off poker ... not for the great majority of people, but it's definitely doable. | ||
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Sm3agol
United States2055 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:17 buhhy wrote: Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young. I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though. I'm also an investing noob, so there's that. I personally plan on waiting for Jobs to die before investing in Apple. The Apple price could really drop far despite nothing of importance changing. | ||
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buhhy
United States1113 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:21 Sm3agol wrote: I personally plan on waiting for Jobs to die before investing in Apple. The Apple price could really drop far despite nothing of importance changing. To be fair, Jobs did bring Apple from obscurity to the "hip cool" Apple of today. I wonder if Apple will be able to continue selling overpriced shiny electronics after Jobs is gone. | ||
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chonkyfire
United States451 Posts
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing" Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year. High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about. | ||
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Sm3agol
United States2055 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds? That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing" Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year. High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about. You're pretty much exactly right. I started putting money in a whole 4 weeks ago. So obviously I'm not starting by putting $50k into penny stocks and hoping for the best. And if you noticed I also have money in quite a few stocks......... | ||
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bRuTaL!!
Finland588 Posts
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QuanticHawk
United States32098 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:08 Sm3agol wrote: I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk. maybe you should read up about the past of nuclear history if you think that drop is 'random'. Just because no one has canceled a plant in the two months since the accident doesn't mean that isn't on the horizon. | ||
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chonkyfire
United States451 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:31 Sm3agol wrote: You're pretty much exactly right. I started putting money in a whole 4 weeks ago. So obviously I'm not starting by putting $50k into penny stocks and hoping for the best. And if you noticed I also have money in quite a few stocks......... I"m going to tell your right now. If you want to make a lot of money in the stock market you have to take a risk here and there. Obviously you can lose your ass, but that's just part of the game. Everyone thinks they are going to make 5 mil in the stock market, very few actually do though. If the mutual funds you've invested in though are focusing on raw materials and energy sources I do like that quite a bit though. Raw materials should continue to do very well in price and the stock prices I would imagine will keep going up. The dollar is going to just keep inflating horribly over the next 10 years. edit: sorry I apologize for my comment earlier, looking at the stocks you mentioned now, I like quite a few of those myself actually. | ||
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KevinIX
United States2472 Posts
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Grease
United States138 Posts
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chonkyfire
United States451 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:39 Grease wrote: ITs all a ponzi scheme :-P I don't know about ponzi scheme, but it's not really a secret the entire global economy is a bunch of imaginary numbers. | ||
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bRuTaL!!
Finland588 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds? That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing" Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year. High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about. Oh the irony of saying that mutual funds are for noobs and then advocating penny stocks. Evolution of invesment knowledge: "I know I know nothing" Mutual Funds -> "I think I know a lot" (penny) stocks -> "I know I cant reliably beat the market" Sensibly diversified portfolio (ETFs and what not) | ||
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Molybdenum
United States358 Posts
Or simply (tl;dr) how can a beginner begin investing without putting the time into buying my own stocks? (As an aside, how do you guys go about doing that, computer program? Which one?) Edit: Razith (3 posts below), thanks, I'll go with one of those options then. | ||
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Razith
Canada431 Posts
-Pick 1 investing strategy and stick with it until you are more familiar with investing. Ex: growth investing, value investing. Investopidia has a lot of information on this. -Pick 1 or 2 industrial sectors and start following them religiously. Read all the news you can about the major companies in those sectors and how the market reacts to the news. Follow these major companies stock prices. Learn about the industry; how do they make money, who are their suppliers, who are their customers, what sort of distribution do they have, what distribution companies do they rely on, where do their suppliers get their product, are there any significant risks of these customers / supplies that could directly/indirectly affect my profits. Books and numbers may show profit, but you should always be asking yourself "where is the cash (cash and profit are 2 different things in accounting) and where is it coming from". If you ever watch shark tank / dragon's den, whats the first question they always ask? "Are there any sales?". -Start a portfolio on one of the pretend investing websites. Pick companies in the sector you picked that you think may do well. At first its going to be a guess basically, so gut feeling is fine. After some changes to your portfolios due to the stock prices shifting, start asking why the market reacted the way it did. And on top of this, start learning about good business practice. Bad vs Good management can be the difference between gains and losses. | ||
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happyft
United States470 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:17 hoemuffin wrote: I think the thing that most people overlook before they start investing would honestly be better served by making sure they have an emergency fund (cash!) in place that can cover at least 3 months rent/expenses. Because stuff happens. I think too many people look to their investments to carry them to the promised land, when the reality is you probably get a higher ROI by doing your job better. Personally, I don't have enough time to really drill down on single stocks, and honestly I doubt I have the risk appetite, especially for larger stocks which are a bear to break down. My job also puts pretty hefty constraints on what I can and cannot invest in. Also trading is not the same thing as investing. This a million times over. Maybe a good analogy would be investments are like upgrades -- they're important to remember, and they could have a big impact on the late game, but the great majority of your time should be macro like making workers, spending money and expanding i.e. doing well at your job, getting promoted, moving up the ladder, etc. On April 20 2011 04:17 buhhy wrote: Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young. I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though. I'm also an investing noob, so there's that. Heh by your logic, any company that doesn't pay dividends is speculative? So conversely, any company that does pay dividends is not speculative? 'Cuz let me tell you, I've lost a few thousands dollars on T 'cuz I figured, hey its a safe telecom stock, and its dividend yield is 7%! Yeah, no, I definitely lost 10% on that stock. Piece of crap T ... still hate it. AAPL does not rise and fall with Jobs' heartbeat. The stock rises and falls with the iPhone and iPad sales numbers. The play on Jobs health ended back in late '08 to late '09. Remember when Jobs announced he's taking another health leave of absence beginning of this year? Stock didn't even flinch .. and in fact, it rose steadily from $320 to $360 for the few months after that. You're right, Android has begun taking share especially in the smartphone market, but not even close with the tablet market. Obviously no one can have all the share in the smartphone market -- the more important question is whether the Android OS will be able to provide a user experience that is at least almost as good as the iPhone. I'd argue the App Store is far superior to the Android Store on both # of apps, ease of use, ease of search, and the developers get paid a HUGE amount more with the iPhone (for some reason, Android users don't like to spend money). But to continue my point -- iPhone market share is really secondary to whether iPhone prices stay at $200-300. If the Android does catchup in all the aforementioned aspects, then carriers can start negotiating with Apple harder and start demanding price concessions, which will directly eat into AAPL's iPhone margins (which provide ~2/3rds of its profit!). That's my real concern on the stock. Just a side note, Android is easier to develop for b/c the programming langauge is in C/C++, whereas iPhone is in C#. Some argue that iPhone's SDK is better and easier to use, but regardless, all agree that you get paid hundreds, if not thousands times more with the iPhone as a developer. Lastly, please, never ever value a company by its trailing 12 month P/E. Either use forward 12 months, or even two years out, or whatever you believe a company's stable real long-term earnings potential number is. | ||
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Razith
Canada431 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:48 Molybdenum wrote: I'm looking to invest some money, just to get something better than a savings account or a CD (about 1-2%). I've talked to a financial guy at my bank who recommended a Global Bond Fund and provided some numbers, it's averaged about 8.4% per year for 20 years. I've also talked to my grandparent's financial guy (who works at a large wealth management corporation), who recommended 2 mutual funds what have been averaging 10 and 12% returns for about 20 years as well (despite losses in '08). I'm currently a student, what would be a good way for me to begin investing? I would rather not buy my own stocks because I simply do not have the time for the research. Should I go with either of the two mentioned options, or is there a better way to beat the bank savings account/CD rates? Or simply (tl;dr) how can a beginner begin investing without putting the time into buying my own stocks? (As an aside, how do you guys go about doing that, computer program? Which one?) If you don't invest yourself, the only way to really beat the risk-free rate is to invest in mutual funds. | ||
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chonkyfire
United States451 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:46 bRuTaL!! wrote: Oh the irony of saying that mutual funds are for noobs and then advocating penny stocks. Evolution of invesment knowledge: "I know I know nothing" Mutual Funds -> "I think I know a lot" (penny) stocks -> "I know I cant reliably beat the market" Sensibly diversified portfolio (ETFs and what not) Mutual funds are not usually aggressive at all. They are for people with 401K stock options. They invest in historically good stocks that have high yields. You think people who run a mutual fund are going to risk people's retirements so they can make more money? Hell no. If that's your investing philosophy that's fine, but I can tell you right now you're not going to get rich doing that. | ||
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buhhy
United States1113 Posts
On April 20 2011 04:48 Molybdenum wrote: I'm looking to invest some money, just to get something better than a savings account or a CD (about 1-2%). I've talked to a financial guy at my bank who recommended a Global Bond Fund and provided some numbers, it's averaged about 8.4% per year for 20 years. I've also talked to my grandparent's financial guy (who works at a large wealth management corporation), who recommended 2 mutual funds what have been averaging 10 and 12% returns for about 20 years as well (despite losses in '08). I'm currently a student, what would be a good way for me to begin investing? I would rather not buy my own stocks because I simply do not have the time for the research. Should I go with either of the two mentioned options, or is there a better way to beat the bank savings account/CD rates? Or simply (tl;dr) how can a beginner begin investing without putting the time into buying my own stocks? (As an aside, how do you guys go about doing that, computer program? Which one?) Edit: Razith (3 posts below), thanks, I'll go with one of those options then. If you have no time to do research, find an index fund like the Vanguard S&P500 and dollar cost average it. It's probably the simplest way to invest. | ||
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