I searched for some investing threads, but the oldest is over a year old, so I figured I would start up a new one. Not sure how much of TL actively invests, but I've started educating myself recently, and really have started getting into it. I've saved a lot of money over my young life due to having a decent job and just being really cheap, but just having it sit in a savings account making 1% interest was a little depressing, so I started doing a lot of research and just started actively investing. And as a relative newbie, I am interested in what my favorite community does in the ever changing world of the stock market.
My personal portfolio right now consists of quite a few different mutual funds, focusing on raw materials and energy mainly at the moment because it seems to have to most room for growth in the near future. I also have a couple of solid bond funds that while they might not have the most amazing growth potential, they are really safe, and they seem to be averaging around an 8% return long term. I "lucked out" with a Chinese based fund that I had researched and liked a lot and so far has returned me about 10% in just 3 weeks. I say lucked out because even though it was an intelligent decision on my part, any expert will tell you intelligence and research can mean almost nothing sometimes.
I also picked up a few nuclear related stocks like CCJ, DNN, and CBLI due to the Japanese situation and the current complete collapse of the nuclear stocks for literally no reason whatsoever. Nuclear isn't going anywhere in the near future. But I'm definitely looking long on those, as they still show no sign of immediate recovery. CBLI, however, is looking really hot.
I am looking at things like shorting and finding some good dividend stocks to pick up, but I am a little paranoid about investing heavily in some of the major companies like google because little crap like your CEO saying the wrong thing can tank stock like noones business. http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/page-tanks-google-stock-130713
In other news, now is a great time to pick up some google stock. :-p
I use Fidelity because they have a very user friendly site, are competitively priced, and have really good customer service, as well as very solid research tools.
So, TL, how is your investing going, and what do you look for?
So far, my advice for beginners. 1. Penny stocks, foreign exchange, and day trading do not exist. Seriously, don't even consider it.
2. Do your research. Before buying anything not a really safe fund/stock(read Bond/S&P500 based based funds, giant "too big to fail" companies like Verizon(VZ) or J&J) do a crap ton of research. No impulse buys unless its something you're already familiar with and it just took a dump for some silly reason. For example, my CBLI(Cleveland BioLabs) buy was a stock that I had been looking at for a while, and it took a huge unwarranted jump right after the Japan quake, which was followed by a giant drop when people realized they were being stupid. I took advantage of the sudden drastic drop to jump in....and 3 weeks later, I've sold with a 10% return. Win.
3. Balance. For every serious speculation buy, invest 3 times that in something safer.
when i was 13 i almost won the etrade challenge. i came in 53rd (out of 120k~), having led it the entire time until the final day =(. age 13.
i am a year away from graduating law school. my first year out i will be as financially conservative as i am now, and i intend to live cheap and pay off all of my loans ASAP.
so, in two years, when i do not have high APR breathing down my neck, i can start investing and making my money again <3
that said i would look at partypoker (dunno the symbol). they are the only big site not hit by #blackfriday and were traditionally marginalized in that industry.... probably until now.
I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that?
I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
On April 20 2011 03:31 d1v wrote: I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that?
I might.....I don't really have that much at the moment, but some people still might be interested. Also keep in mind that I am by no means an expert, and am currently just a tad in the negative at the moment due to many of my nuclear based stocks dropping even further.....again, for no reason whatsoever. If I had balls I'd be buying even more, but since I'm still a relative newbie, I'm going to take it easy on the spec stocks. Plus my mutual funds are all sitting roughly even, all things considered....but then I only started actively using my own money about a month ago. But still i'm a little too heavy on spec side for my liking at the moment and if something really bad were to happen in Japan again, it might not recover for years.
Lost a little bit on VECO and X, but overall I'm up almost 20% for the year that I've held these. (bought these back in May '10).
Right now I don't really know what to do as the markets have been really choppy, and I think technical analysts are getting nervous. I think fundamentals are a little choppy too, this is really what you call a stock picker's market -- you can't just buy any stock and be like, oh it's a bull market everything's going up; in other words, simple market exposure at this point probably won't get you anywhere, you need to invest in the right companies. I kinda bought my stocks blindly as I only vaguely knew they were great companies, but I had stronger conviction that people were being too cautious about the market at the time early last year -- but now I can't really say that anymore, and I have to be smart about what I buy instead of just getting simple market exposure.
Thinking about dumping my BAC (what a piece of crap I hate this stock) and switching into C. I have to believe M&A, IPOs, and general banking business will come back over the next few years from the terrible down-turn in the past few years. Was so tempted to buy LPL yesterday when they reported great earnings but the stock didn't move -- so dumb, it's up 6% today
Beyond that I don't really know what to do ... GOOG looks like a piece of crap, and my coworker who covers the stock told me they missed badly on margins (they reported last week) due to much higher than expected opex, which is really not something I want to hear. Yeah GOOG is probably a bit undervalued right now, but until this margin pressure lets up, I don't think GOOG will outperform. And margins may not come back for a few quarters =T
DE and AMZN have been a great run for me, and I'm thinking maybe now's the time to cash in my chips. But I'm kinda stuck... what do I put my money in then?
Sorry for the rant, but that's where I'm at ... my gut feeling tells me the market will go sideways and stay range bound for the next few quarters, and that I should rotate my stocks into fresh ideas, but nothing just pops up to me... I haven't heard any fresh ideas for a while from my coworkers either.
On April 20 2011 03:31 d1v wrote: I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that?
I might.....I don't really have that much at the moment, but some people still might be interested. Also keep in mind that I am by no means an expert, and am currently just a tad in the negative at the moment due to many of my nuclear based stocks dropping even further.....again, for no reason whatsoever. If I had balls I'd be buying even more, but since I'm still a relative newbie, I'm going to take it easy on the spec stocks. Plus my mutual funds are all sitting roughly even, all things considered....but then I only started actively using my own money about a month ago. But still i'm a little too heavy on spec side for my liking at the moment and if something really bad were to happen in Japan again, it might not recover for years.
How much are you investing right now? I'm kinda scared to throw real money at the stock market lol.
I can recommend reading the intelligent investor by graham, and the black swan by taleb.
Some things i learned: - Never trust specific investing advice, the adviser probably doesn't know more than you and likely have some additional agenda. - Stay away from costs: no expensive funds, especially no performance fees; also commissions really add up, so don't try to trade/switch. Rebalancing is worth the fees, but there is some minimum amount of money you need to make it worthwile.
I'd recommend starting with a conservative portolio based on a few etfs - then find companies you might want to invest in, investigate them inside out and slowly add them 1 by 1 over the years, and keep following them. For us citizens (for example) it can be really worth while to also work out how the tax stuff works around investing.
I feel you on stocks.....I wish I had invested all of my money a solid year ago, I could have literally doubled my money. If I were you, I would look at transferring your money into some solid funds for a while until the market gets figured out. The bullish trends seem to be over, and everything will probably revert back to research and luck in a little bit.
I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
On April 20 2011 03:31 d1v wrote: I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that?
I might.....I don't really have that much at the moment, but some people still might be interested. Also keep in mind that I am by no means an expert, and am currently just a tad in the negative at the moment due to many of my nuclear based stocks dropping even further.....again, for no reason whatsoever. If I had balls I'd be buying even more, but since I'm still a relative newbie, I'm going to take it easy on the spec stocks. Plus my mutual funds are all sitting roughly even, all things considered....but then I only started actively using my own money about a month ago. But still i'm a little too heavy on spec side for my liking at the moment and if something really bad were to happen in Japan again, it might not recover for years.
How much are you investing right now? I'm kinda scared to throw real money at the stock market lol.
To get into it try some of the free trading programs that allow you to trade virtual money. That way you'll get a better feel for it, and get used to following stocks. But play it like you would real money. Practice doesn't make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.
And for the record I have around about 25k invested right now, which is all I'm going to be at for a while. I need some time for averages and statistics to kick in so I can get a better feel for things. I hope to put another 25k in by next year.
Although maybe that isn't a good thing to put out on the internet.....
Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
I don't need to do better than hedge-funds, i need to do better than a savings account (2% atm). That i can do quite comfortably.. sofar... I would also like to mention there is a difference between investing and speculating.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote: I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Because hedge fund and mutual fund managers have several constraints that prevent them from performing at their peak. It's why indexing works.
With billions under management, they can't buy micro/small stocks because there isn't enough volume. They are under pressure from shareholders to perform well at every moment, so they can't act for the long-term They can't take large risks with their money. They are paid through fees, and maximizing fees does not mean maximizing overall returns. Also, their fees eat up returns.
I personally don't believe in daytrading or growth stock speculation.
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Many hedge funds companies charge pretty ridiculous prices for rather marginal returns than what you would get yourself. Look at the 08/09 crashes...almost all those funds completely tanked with the rest of the market. People with their money in those funds did just as poorly as people with their own stocks.
Plus, any manager will tell you.......the stock market is ridiculously unpredictable. All the analysis in the world won't keep you from completely lucking out and having 90% of your investment go down the drain due to random and almost completely unrelated problems.
I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
hello im from teamliquid and i've made x% since 200x and thats better than 95% of all mutual/hedge fund managers but here i am sharing my insights with you. i dunno why those other guys with tons of resources and years of experience don't invest like me lolol.
but seriously, unless someone can you show an audited broker report with actual returns don't listen to anyone ever tell you 'ive made this much' or 'ive returned this'. thats the best thing with these magnificent market tales, its as simple as 'prove it'.
enormous capital is dumped into beating a market benchmark or index. the kid from teamliquid who forgets to bring a pencil to class is who you're going get advice from?
by the way this isn't a shot at the teamliquid community. supplement tl with the cess pool elitetrader. point is still illustrated.
john stockton
edit: theres plenty of hedge funds who beat the market. don't be a naive.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote: I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
started with about $5,000 but increased capital both off of profits and from using more money from outside of the market (total profit was $10,000 but towards the end I was trading about $20,000)
maybe not technically day trading, i'd sometimes hold on to it for as long as a week or two - i started trading (small amounts) of ATVI in '08, but never really went deep until '10
traded based on the market, what i knew about release dates (little), and whim (obviously not a good answer, but it's the truth)
On April 20 2011 04:11 Steveh wrote: hello im from teamliquid and i've made x% since 200x and thats better than 95% of all mutual/hedge fund managers but here i am sharing my insights with you. i dunno why those other guys with tons of resources and years of experience don't invest like me lolol.
but seriously, unless someone can you show an audited broker report with actual returns don't listen to anyone ever tell you 'ive made this much' or 'ive returned this'. thats the best thing with these magnificent market tales, its as simple as 'prove it'.
enormous capital is dumped into beating a market benchmark or index. the kid from teamliquid who forgets to bring a pencil to class is who you're going get advice from?
by the way this isn't a shot at the teamliquid community. supplement tl with the cess pool elitetrader. point is still illustrated.
john stockton
edit: theres plenty of hedge funds who beat the market. don't be a naive.
Lucking into the ones that do is just as hard as actually investing wisely yourself.
I think the thing that most people overlook before they start investing would honestly be better served by making sure they have an emergency fund (cash!) in place that can cover at least 3 months rent/expenses. Because stuff happens. I think too many people look to their investments to carry them to the promised land, when the reality is you probably get a higher ROI by doing your job better.
Personally, I don't have enough time to really drill down on single stocks, and honestly I doubt I have the risk appetite, especially for larger stocks which are a bear to break down. My job also puts pretty hefty constraints on what I can and cannot invest in.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young.
I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote: I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
started with about $5,000 but increased capital both off of profits and from using more money from outside of the market (total profit was $10,000 but towards the end I was trading about $20,000)
maybe not technically day trading, i'd sometimes hold on to it for as long as a week or two - i started trading (small amounts) of ATVI in '08, but never really went deep until '10
traded based on the market, what i knew about release dates (little), and whim (obviously not a good answer, but it's the truth)
Wow, serious kudos to you. I'm really, really impressed b/c ATVI is known to be a trader's stock -- it hasn't broken out of the $10-13 range in 2 years. Either you're really lucky or you just stare at the screen for 7.5 hrs every day, or both =P But the fact you've been doing it for an extended period of time indicates skill, especially in a trader's stock (I know in the hedge fund world 5 years is even too short, but in day trading, god...if you can make money over a multi-month time period, that's serious stuff).
To ya'll day trader doubters, I used to not believe in day trading either until I actually started working closer to the stock market. The truth is, when you stare at a stock long enough (and I mean just stare at it for the whole 9:30am-4pm trading session every day), get know its fundamentals, how the stock reacts to positive and negative news over many events and catalysts, you really get to know the stock very intimately -- and I believe you can effectively day trade very well based on that. But yeah ... it's also damn risky. And takes a crapload of time. I guess it's like making a living off poker ... not for the great majority of people, but it's definitely doable.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young.
I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though.
I'm also an investing noob, so there's that.
I personally plan on waiting for Jobs to die before investing in Apple. The Apple price could really drop far despite nothing of importance changing.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young.
I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though.
I'm also an investing noob, so there's that.
I personally plan on waiting for Jobs to die before investing in Apple. The Apple price could really drop far despite nothing of importance changing.
To be fair, Jobs did bring Apple from obscurity to the "hip cool" Apple of today. I wonder if Apple will be able to continue selling overpriced shiny electronics after Jobs is gone.
Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds?
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing"
Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year.
High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about.
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds?
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing"
Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year.
High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about.
You're pretty much exactly right. I started putting money in a whole 4 weeks ago. So obviously I'm not starting by putting $50k into penny stocks and hoping for the best.
And if you noticed I also have money in quite a few stocks.........
My portfolio is now up 80% in the last two+ years. Now thought Im kind of at a loss with what to do. Usually the market is pretty easy to time. The whole EU and US debt thing. Rising oil. Possible instability in China: its housing market and inflation.
On April 20 2011 04:08 Sm3agol wrote: I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
maybe you should read up about the past of nuclear history if you think that drop is 'random'. Just because no one has canceled a plant in the two months since the accident doesn't mean that isn't on the horizon.
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds?
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing"
Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year.
High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about.
You're pretty much exactly right. I started putting money in a whole 4 weeks ago. So obviously I'm not starting by putting $50k into penny stocks and hoping for the best.
And if you noticed I also have money in quite a few stocks.........
I"m going to tell your right now. If you want to make a lot of money in the stock market you have to take a risk here and there. Obviously you can lose your ass, but that's just part of the game.
Everyone thinks they are going to make 5 mil in the stock market, very few actually do though.
If the mutual funds you've invested in though are focusing on raw materials and energy sources I do like that quite a bit though. Raw materials should continue to do very well in price and the stock prices I would imagine will keep going up. The dollar is going to just keep inflating horribly over the next 10 years.
edit: sorry I apologize for my comment earlier, looking at the stocks you mentioned now, I like quite a few of those myself actually.
Investing in mutual funds simply isn't going to get you the same returns as if you invested each stock yourself. Mutual funds play it safe (too safe in my opinion) and invest in a lot of low risk low return stocks. I'm not a finance major, but I do dabble in stocks here an there. I actually have around 20% growth each month, which is far better than any mutual fund. And I know several of my friends in Finance actually have much higher growth than that.
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds?
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing"
Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year.
High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about.
Oh the irony of saying that mutual funds are for noobs and then advocating penny stocks.
Evolution of invesment knowledge:
"I know I know nothing" Mutual Funds -> "I think I know a lot" (penny) stocks -> "I know I cant reliably beat the market" Sensibly diversified portfolio (ETFs and what not)
I'm looking to invest some money, just to get something better than a savings account or a CD (about 1-2%). I've talked to a financial guy at my bank who recommended a Global Bond Fund and provided some numbers, it's averaged about 8.4% per year for 20 years. I've also talked to my grandparent's financial guy (who works at a large wealth management corporation), who recommended 2 mutual funds what have been averaging 10 and 12% returns for about 20 years as well (despite losses in '08). I'm currently a student, what would be a good way for me to begin investing? I would rather not buy my own stocks because I simply do not have the time for the research. Should I go with either of the two mentioned options, or is there a better way to beat the bank savings account/CD rates?
Or simply (tl;dr) how can a beginner begin investing without putting the time into buying my own stocks? (As an aside, how do you guys go about doing that, computer program? Which one?)
Edit: Razith (3 posts below), thanks, I'll go with one of those options then.
If you're new to investing and want to start, here are a few tips:
-Pick 1 investing strategy and stick with it until you are more familiar with investing. Ex: growth investing, value investing. Investopidia has a lot of information on this.
-Pick 1 or 2 industrial sectors and start following them religiously. Read all the news you can about the major companies in those sectors and how the market reacts to the news. Follow these major companies stock prices. Learn about the industry; how do they make money, who are their suppliers, who are their customers, what sort of distribution do they have, what distribution companies do they rely on, where do their suppliers get their product, are there any significant risks of these customers / supplies that could directly/indirectly affect my profits. Books and numbers may show profit, but you should always be asking yourself "where is the cash (cash and profit are 2 different things in accounting) and where is it coming from". If you ever watch shark tank / dragon's den, whats the first question they always ask? "Are there any sales?".
-Start a portfolio on one of the pretend investing websites. Pick companies in the sector you picked that you think may do well. At first its going to be a guess basically, so gut feeling is fine. After some changes to your portfolios due to the stock prices shifting, start asking why the market reacted the way it did.
And on top of this, start learning about good business practice. Bad vs Good management can be the difference between gains and losses.
On April 20 2011 04:17 hoemuffin wrote: I think the thing that most people overlook before they start investing would honestly be better served by making sure they have an emergency fund (cash!) in place that can cover at least 3 months rent/expenses. Because stuff happens. I think too many people look to their investments to carry them to the promised land, when the reality is you probably get a higher ROI by doing your job better.
Personally, I don't have enough time to really drill down on single stocks, and honestly I doubt I have the risk appetite, especially for larger stocks which are a bear to break down. My job also puts pretty hefty constraints on what I can and cannot invest in.
Also trading is not the same thing as investing.
This a million times over. Maybe a good analogy would be investments are like upgrades -- they're important to remember, and they could have a big impact on the late game, but the great majority of your time should be macro like making workers, spending money and expanding i.e. doing well at your job, getting promoted, moving up the ladder, etc.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
Yeah, I'm mainly reading and learning right now. I'm Canadian, so I'm gonna invest through a TFSA to avoid capital gains, income tax, etc. Dollar cost averaging into an index fund is probably the safest and most stable route, but I wanna at least try stock picking since I'm still quite young.
I personally think AAPL is speculative because it pays no dividends, and the stock price rises and falls with Job's heartbeat. They've fallen since I last looked at the price too. Much of their strength comes from the tablet and handheld market, from which Android will start taking its share. Microsoft won the OS wars because Windows had a much better development kit and was much easier to develop for. Android is open source, so it's even easier to develop for. It's hard to tell whether Apple will be able to hold the market shares. 19 PE doesn't look too bad though.
I'm also an investing noob, so there's that.
Heh by your logic, any company that doesn't pay dividends is speculative? So conversely, any company that does pay dividends is not speculative? 'Cuz let me tell you, I've lost a few thousands dollars on T 'cuz I figured, hey its a safe telecom stock, and its dividend yield is 7%! Yeah, no, I definitely lost 10% on that stock. Piece of crap T ... still hate it.
AAPL does not rise and fall with Jobs' heartbeat. The stock rises and falls with the iPhone and iPad sales numbers. The play on Jobs health ended back in late '08 to late '09. Remember when Jobs announced he's taking another health leave of absence beginning of this year? Stock didn't even flinch .. and in fact, it rose steadily from $320 to $360 for the few months after that.
You're right, Android has begun taking share especially in the smartphone market, but not even close with the tablet market. Obviously no one can have all the share in the smartphone market -- the more important question is whether the Android OS will be able to provide a user experience that is at least almost as good as the iPhone. I'd argue the App Store is far superior to the Android Store on both # of apps, ease of use, ease of search, and the developers get paid a HUGE amount more with the iPhone (for some reason, Android users don't like to spend money).
But to continue my point -- iPhone market share is really secondary to whether iPhone prices stay at $200-300. If the Android does catchup in all the aforementioned aspects, then carriers can start negotiating with Apple harder and start demanding price concessions, which will directly eat into AAPL's iPhone margins (which provide ~2/3rds of its profit!). That's my real concern on the stock.
Just a side note, Android is easier to develop for b/c the programming langauge is in C/C++, whereas iPhone is in C#. Some argue that iPhone's SDK is better and easier to use, but regardless, all agree that you get paid hundreds, if not thousands times more with the iPhone as a developer.
Lastly, please, never ever value a company by its trailing 12 month P/E. Either use forward 12 months, or even two years out, or whatever you believe a company's stable real long-term earnings potential number is.
On April 20 2011 04:48 Molybdenum wrote: I'm looking to invest some money, just to get something better than a savings account or a CD (about 1-2%). I've talked to a financial guy at my bank who recommended a Global Bond Fund and provided some numbers, it's averaged about 8.4% per year for 20 years. I've also talked to my grandparent's financial guy (who works at a large wealth management corporation), who recommended 2 mutual funds what have been averaging 10 and 12% returns for about 20 years as well (despite losses in '08). I'm currently a student, what would be a good way for me to begin investing? I would rather not buy my own stocks because I simply do not have the time for the research. Should I go with either of the two mentioned options, or is there a better way to beat the bank savings account/CD rates?
Or simply (tl;dr) how can a beginner begin investing without putting the time into buying my own stocks? (As an aside, how do you guys go about doing that, computer program? Which one?)
If you don't invest yourself, the only way to really beat the risk-free rate is to invest in mutual funds.
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds?
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing"
Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year.
High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about.
Oh the irony of saying that mutual funds are for noobs and then advocating penny stocks.
Evolution of invesment knowledge:
"I know I know nothing" Mutual Funds -> "I think I know a lot" (penny) stocks -> "I know I cant reliably beat the market" Sensibly diversified portfolio (ETFs and what not)
Mutual funds are not usually aggressive at all. They are for people with 401K stock options. They invest in historically good stocks that have high yields. You think people who run a mutual fund are going to risk people's retirements so they can make more money? Hell no.
If that's your investing philosophy that's fine, but I can tell you right now you're not going to get rich doing that.
On April 20 2011 04:48 Molybdenum wrote: I'm looking to invest some money, just to get something better than a savings account or a CD (about 1-2%). I've talked to a financial guy at my bank who recommended a Global Bond Fund and provided some numbers, it's averaged about 8.4% per year for 20 years. I've also talked to my grandparent's financial guy (who works at a large wealth management corporation), who recommended 2 mutual funds what have been averaging 10 and 12% returns for about 20 years as well (despite losses in '08). I'm currently a student, what would be a good way for me to begin investing? I would rather not buy my own stocks because I simply do not have the time for the research. Should I go with either of the two mentioned options, or is there a better way to beat the bank savings account/CD rates?
Or simply (tl;dr) how can a beginner begin investing without putting the time into buying my own stocks? (As an aside, how do you guys go about doing that, computer program? Which one?)
Edit: Razith (3 posts below), thanks, I'll go with one of those options then.
If you have no time to do research, find an index fund like the Vanguard S&P500 and dollar cost average it. It's probably the simplest way to invest.
Well penny stock do exist. Like 1-2 years ago, I brought SIRI or Sirius Radio sub .20s for a bet that it didn't go bankrupt. I later sold it later for about a 3k gain. It's not really investing but i thought it was pretty good for a college student like me to bet using just couple hundred of dollars. My best bet gamble ever...
Edit: Razith (3 posts below), thanks, I'll go with one of those options then.
Ya it'll take a lot of knowledge about specific sectors and business participating in them to be able to make safe, substantial returns. It would also require a lot of capital invested.
This is why mutual funds are so popular. Pool all the cash together to have some weight to throw around and then manage it with a team of people who basically dedicate their lives/careers to figuring out what companies to invest into. This is why there is also a hefty front end charge or back end charge associated with mutual funds.
On April 20 2011 04:28 chonkyfire wrote: Did you just make an investing thread and say your portfolio consists of mutual funds?
That kind of screams "I know nothing about investing"
Also penny stocks most certainly do exist, they just need something that is going to end up making them money. There are all kinds of biotech stocks that are penny stocks right now that could very well see a 500% increase in value over the next year.
High yielding stocks are great, if you have a lot of money invested into them. If you don't have any money invested your not going to see any returns worth writing home about.
Nothing wrong with mutual funds per se, especially if people don't want to devote the time to be stock jockeys. I would lean towards ETF's, but there are certainly good mutual funds out there (and lots of lousy ones).
Penny stocks are proxy call option equivalents. Especially with biotech, unless you are either familiar with the FDA approval process or know a lot about drug development, you are in effect paying for the optionality - and modelling that stuff is an epic pain. Its hard to grab an edge there, and any negative expectation strategy ends up with you losing money in the long run. And even the dollar amount loss in a penny stock can be small, as a % it is large.
For an investor, especially someone who is looking to prepare for retirement as opposed to buying a mega yacht, compound returns over the longest period of time with minimum volatility is the name of the game. Figure out what you want, and then worry about how to get there.
Mutual funds are not usually aggressive at all. They are for people with 401K stock options. They invest in historically good stocks that have high yields. You think people who run a mutual fund are going to risk people's retirements so they can make more money? Hell no.
If that's your investing philosophy that's fine, but I can tell you right now you're not going to get rich doing that.
Why even bother with penny stocks. Just gamble. You wont be getting rich with the penny stocks either if you start with $5,000. MOst likely youll just lose it all. I think everyones plan is to get wealthier, not rich overnight.
Mutual funds are not usually aggressive at all. They are for people with 401K stock options. They invest in historically good stocks that have high yields. You think people who run a mutual fund are going to risk people's retirements so they can make more money? Hell no.
If that's your investing philosophy that's fine, but I can tell you right now you're not going to get rich doing that.
Why even bother with penny stocks. Just gamble. You wont be getting rich with the penny stocks either if you start with $5,000. MOst likely youll just lose it all. I think everyones plan is to get wealthier, not rich overnight.
I love the perception of being able to make a million overnight, just adds to the mystery of the markets .
Penny stocks is like picking horses. Its like day trading. Its more like gambling than investing.
On April 20 2011 04:31 bRuTaL!! wrote: My portfolio is now up 80% in the last two+ years. Now thought Im kind of at a loss with what to do. Usually the market is pretty easy to time. The whole EU and US debt thing. Rising oil. Possible instability in China: its housing market and inflation.
Seems like we're in the same boat (though you seem to keep track of macro trends more than I do, or at least emphasize it more than I do). Rising energy prices seems to have put a dampener on construction/industrial spending at the very least from what I can tell. And yeah I'm concerned over China as well -- TV sales there haven't been as great as they should be, it seems like consumer spending over there is pulling back a little bit.
But the thing is, I can't really point to anything that would cause me to go bearish on the market either. And you never know when suddenly everyone gets optimistic again. So it's like, I'm not gonna go net-short ... and I don't want to go neutral either cuz I'm not miss out on a run ... but I'm worried cuz I don't think the market can go higher from here. lol talk about being indecisive, no wonder the markets are so choppy if everyone else is feeling like we do =P
I have invested tens of thousands of dollars for nearly a decade. I strongly suggest keeping your stocks and mutual funds diversified. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. If you do you will feel like a genius when things are great, but when something happens over night you will beat yourself up for years. Unless you have a lot of time to put in doing research and you really feel like you know what you are doing I would stick with mutual funds. Find several diversified mutual funds with a 10+ year long track record of good growth. It will be tempting to look at them every single day and want to change them constantly but let them be. Over the space of several years you will see them grow and you will easily beat the 1% the savings accounts are offering. If you are not familiar with compound interest and how powerful it is you should crunch some numbers. Google "compound interest calculator" and see how powerful it is. Right now most of you have time on your side. You are still young. Save while you can and let compound interest do the work. Saving a decent amount now can mean millions when you retire. Think about the future and you can have a great reward.
On April 20 2011 04:51 happyft wrote: Heh by your logic, any company that doesn't pay dividends is speculative? So conversely, any company that does pay dividends is not speculative? 'Cuz let me tell you, I've lost a few thousands dollars on T 'cuz I figured, hey its a safe telecom stock, and its dividend yield is 7%! Yeah, no, I definitely lost 10% on that stock. Piece of crap T ... still hate it.
Without dividends, you are counting on the stock to advance. That's pretty much the definition of speculation...
On April 20 2011 04:51 happyft wrote: AAPL does not rise and fall with Jobs' heartbeat. The stock rises and falls with the iPhone and iPad sales numbers. The play on Jobs health ended back in late '08 to late '09. Remember when Jobs announced he's taking another health leave of absence beginning of this year? Stock didn't even flinch .. and in fact, it rose steadily from $320 to $360 for the few months after that.
You're right, Android has begun taking share especially in the smartphone market, but not even close with the tablet market. Obviously no one can have all the share in the smartphone market -- the more important question is whether the Android OS will be able to provide a user experience that is at least almost as good as the iPhone. I'd argue the App Store is far superior to the Android Store on both # of apps, ease of use, ease of search, and the developers get paid a HUGE amount more with the iPhone (for some reason, Android users don't like to spend money).
But to continue my point -- iPhone market share is really secondary to whether iPhone prices stay at $200-300. If the Android does catchup in all the aforementioned aspects, then carriers can start negotiating with Apple harder and start demanding price concessions, which will directly eat into AAPL's iPhone margins (which provide ~2/3rds of its profit!). That's my real concern on the stock.
Just a side note, Android is easier to develop for b/c the programming langauge is in C/C++, whereas iPhone is in C#. Some argue that iPhone's SDK is better and easier to use, but regardless, all agree that you get paid hundreds, if not thousands times more with the iPhone as a developer.
Lol, no. Android SDK is Java, which is the most common and popular programming language. iPhone SDK is Objective-C, which absolutely NO ONE uses beyond iPhone development. The Apple SDK also does not run natively on windows. Also, Android can be run on any system, none of Apple's proprietary crap. Currently, I feel Android isn't as stable as the iOS, but that could quickly change given the open source nature. Microsoft won the OS wars because they allowed windows to be installed on any hardware. Android will likely win as well in the future.
The explosion of iPhone developer start-ups is IMO somewhat of a bubble. The market will become saturated, and the number of start-up companies will decrease.
Apple already occupies a fringe in the PC market, most of their margin comes from handhelds. If iPhones lose market share to Android devices, and either prices drop to compensate, or market share drops. Neither is desirable
On April 20 2011 04:51 happyft wrote: Lastly, please, never ever value a company by its trailing 12 month P/E. Either use forward 12 months, or even two years out, or whatever you believe a company's stable real long-term earnings potential number is.
You are then speculating that the company will meet the predicted margins? Shouldn't you be examining all data available to you anyways?
Mutual funds are not usually aggressive at all. They are for people with 401K stock options. They invest in historically good stocks that have high yields. You think people who run a mutual fund are going to risk people's retirements so they can make more money? Hell no.
If that's your investing philosophy that's fine, but I can tell you right now you're not going to get rich doing that.
Why even bother with penny stocks. Just gamble. You wont be getting rich with the penny stocks either if you start with $5,000. MOst likely youll just lose it all. I think everyones plan is to get wealthier, not rich overnight.
I don't think investing in penny stocks is necessarily get rich quick plan.
If there is a small pharma company that's trading 60 cents a share, but has a drug promising drug that they could get a patent for in the next year or two, that stock could see a 400-600% increase in value easily. If it happens sell it, you pay 15% capital gains tax and make a ton of money. Obviously you can lose it, but hey fuck it.
On April 20 2011 04:31 bRuTaL!! wrote: My portfolio is now up 80% in the last two+ years. Now thought Im kind of at a loss with what to do. Usually the market is pretty easy to time. The whole EU and US debt thing. Rising oil. Possible instability in China: its housing market and inflation.
Seems like we're in the same boat (though you seem to keep track of macro trends more than I do, or at least emphasize it more than I do). Rising energy prices seems to have put a dampener on construction/industrial spending at the very least from what I can tell. And yeah I'm concerned over China as well -- TV sales there haven't been as great as they should be, it seems like consumer spending over there is pulling back a little bit.
But the thing is, I can't really point to anything that would cause me to go bearish on the market either. And you never know when suddenly everyone gets optimistic again. So it's like, I'm not gonna go net-short ... and I don't want to go neutral either cuz I'm not miss out on a run ... but I'm worried cuz I don't think the market can go higher from here. lol talk about being indecisive, no wonder the markets are so choppy if everyone else is feeling like we do =P
Yeah I study economics as my major in university so I play to my strengths. The problem I have is that the debt thing is just not getting much better. Lately to the contrary. The rabbit hole might be a bit deeper than people thought.
On April 20 2011 04:08 Sm3agol wrote: I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
maybe you should read up about the past of nuclear history if you think that drop is 'random'. Just because no one has canceled a plant in the two months since the accident doesn't mean that isn't on the horizon.
Its not "random" per se, but nonsensical. Uranium prices were a higher than they should have been before the accident, but the need for it isn't dropping any time soon, and it's WAY undervalued right now. It's dropped well beyond the point of value, and is way into the "baseless worry" right now. Aka, perfect time to pick it up(imo, obviously).
I don't think investing in penny stocks is necessarily get rich quick plan.
If there is a small pharma company that's trading 60 cents a share, but has a drug promising drug that they could get a patent for in the next year or two, that stock could see a 400-600% increase in value easily. If it happens sell it, you pay 15% capital gains tax and make a ton of money. Obviously you can lose it, but hey fuck it.
If others know the same thing, wouldnt it be priced in already?
I don't think investing in penny stocks is necessarily get rich quick plan.
If there is a small pharma company that's trading 60 cents a share, but has a drug promising drug that they could get a patent for in the next year or two, that stock could see a 400-600% increase in value easily. If it happens sell it, you pay 15% capital gains tax and make a ton of money. Obviously you can lose it, but hey fuck it.
If others know the same thing, wouldnt it be priced in already?
Hey you just have to take an interest and try and be ahead of the game.
That's what it is. Everyone who makes big money in the stock market is always playing the game.
Now that I think about it though, maybe nobody should take my investing advice. I'm pretty sure I have different priorities in life from a lot of people.
On April 20 2011 04:51 happyft wrote: Heh by your logic, any company that doesn't pay dividends is speculative? So conversely, any company that does pay dividends is not speculative? 'Cuz let me tell you, I've lost a few thousands dollars on T 'cuz I figured, hey its a safe telecom stock, and its dividend yield is 7%! Yeah, no, I definitely lost 10% on that stock. Piece of crap T ... still hate it.
Without dividends, you are counting on the stock to advance. That's pretty much the definition of speculation...
On April 20 2011 04:51 happyft wrote: AAPL does not rise and fall with Jobs' heartbeat. The stock rises and falls with the iPhone and iPad sales numbers. The play on Jobs health ended back in late '08 to late '09. Remember when Jobs announced he's taking another health leave of absence beginning of this year? Stock didn't even flinch .. and in fact, it rose steadily from $320 to $360 for the few months after that.
You're right, Android has begun taking share especially in the smartphone market, but not even close with the tablet market. Obviously no one can have all the share in the smartphone market -- the more important question is whether the Android OS will be able to provide a user experience that is at least almost as good as the iPhone. I'd argue the App Store is far superior to the Android Store on both # of apps, ease of use, ease of search, and the developers get paid a HUGE amount more with the iPhone (for some reason, Android users don't like to spend money).
But to continue my point -- iPhone market share is really secondary to whether iPhone prices stay at $200-300. If the Android does catchup in all the aforementioned aspects, then carriers can start negotiating with Apple harder and start demanding price concessions, which will directly eat into AAPL's iPhone margins (which provide ~2/3rds of its profit!). That's my real concern on the stock.
Just a side note, Android is easier to develop for b/c the programming langauge is in C/C++, whereas iPhone is in C#. Some argue that iPhone's SDK is better and easier to use, but regardless, all agree that you get paid hundreds, if not thousands times more with the iPhone as a developer.
Lol, no. Android SDK is Java, which is the most common and popular programming language. iPhone SDK is Objective-C, which absolutely NO ONE uses beyond iPhone development. The Apple SDK also does not run natively on windows. Also, Android can be run on any system, none of Apple's proprietary crap. Currently, I feel Android isn't as stable as the iOS, but that could quickly change given the open source nature. Microsoft won the OS wars because they allowed windows to be installed on any hardware. Android will likely win as well in the future.
The explosion of iPhone developer start-ups is IMO somewhat of a bubble. The market will become saturated, and the number of start-up companies will decrease.
Apple already occupies a fringe in the PC market, most of their margin comes from handhelds. If iPhones lose market share to Android devices, and either prices drop to compensate, or market share drops. Neither is desirable
On April 20 2011 04:51 happyft wrote: Lastly, please, never ever value a company by its trailing 12 month P/E. Either use forward 12 months, or even two years out, or whatever you believe a company's stable real long-term earnings potential number is.
You are then speculating that the company will meet the predicted margins? Shouldn't you be examining all data available to you anyways?
My apologies, you are correct -- I always get Java and C confused, and C# and objective C confused. But practically, I meant everyone knows Java and nobody knows obj-C.
In any case, if you believe what you argue, then it would be logical for you to think about shorting the stock, as I believe the great majority do not believe Apple will lose pricing power on the iPhone.
In regards to speculation on non-dividend paying stocks -- I am counting on company's earnings to grow. If AAPL ends up earning $30 this year instead of $23, the stock should grow, no? Is that speculation, or making the right call on iPhone and iPad sales based on a collection of data points out of Asia suppliers, NPD research, reading product reviews, analysis of competitive landscape, etc. etc.? Or to put it more simply... if a company is going to earn $1 this year, based on a 14x multiple (market multiple) its stock price could reasonably be $14. If instead the company experiences greater than expected success and earns $2 this year and the year after, shouldn't the stock price rise to $28? (yes, as simple as this sounds, this is actually how the stock market works)
In regards to speculating on EPS and margins -- anybody in finance will tell you that past results are not indicative of future results. And tell me -- what does it matter if a company earned $5 EPS last year if this year they're going to earn $1? All stocks trade on future earnings whether you like it or not, even as inexact as it is. And believe it or not, it's not just financial analysts who predict earnings, but most often these analysts' projections are based on company guidance. Many companies tell you what they think they're going to do next quarter, if not even for the full year. Are they wrong? Yeah, sometimes a little, sometimes a lot. But it's something to go off by, and you gotta use it.
Maybe an analogy will work ... when sports teams make trades for players, are they trading for the player's past performance, or the player's future performance? Think about it.
On April 20 2011 03:29 annul wrote: when i was 13 i almost won the etrade challenge. i came in 53rd (out of 120k~), having led it the entire time until the final day =(. age 13.
i am a year away from graduating law school. my first year out i will be as financially conservative as i am now, and i intend to live cheap and pay off all of my loans ASAP.
so, in two years, when i do not have high APR breathing down my neck, i can start investing and making my money again <3
that said i would look at partypoker (dunno the symbol). they are the only big site not hit by #blackfriday and were traditionally marginalized in that industry.... probably until now.
On April 20 2011 04:31 bRuTaL!! wrote: My portfolio is now up 80% in the last two+ years. Now thought Im kind of at a loss with what to do. Usually the market is pretty easy to time. The whole EU and US debt thing. Rising oil. Possible instability in China: its housing market and inflation.
Seems like we're in the same boat (though you seem to keep track of macro trends more than I do, or at least emphasize it more than I do). Rising energy prices seems to have put a dampener on construction/industrial spending at the very least from what I can tell. And yeah I'm concerned over China as well -- TV sales there haven't been as great as they should be, it seems like consumer spending over there is pulling back a little bit.
But the thing is, I can't really point to anything that would cause me to go bearish on the market either. And you never know when suddenly everyone gets optimistic again. So it's like, I'm not gonna go net-short ... and I don't want to go neutral either cuz I'm not miss out on a run ... but I'm worried cuz I don't think the market can go higher from here. lol talk about being indecisive, no wonder the markets are so choppy if everyone else is feeling like we do =P
Yeah I study economics as my major in university so I play to my strengths. The problem I have is that the debt thing is just not getting much better. Lately to the contrary. The rabbit hole might be a bit deeper than people thought.
Mind going into more detail? A couple of sources of the basis of your beliefs or info would be greatly appreciated as well. How much debt are we talking about, and when? And how does this compare to majority view of how much and when? What kind of impact do you think there will be, and what's the timing on that?
Also, do you go to NYU and listen to Roubini =P
(my own sources for my beliefs in my prior post is I regularly call up construction dealers on a quarterly basis, and I closely follow global TV sales as well as the Asia consumer electronics supply chain)
It's really sad to invest into agrarian resources though. You basically drive the price upwards for people with less money than you, leading to starving families in poor countries. If you want to invest into resources, stick to metals etc., but don't speculate on food, noone is to blame for the place they were born in.
Concerning the topic:
I'm not investing at all atm, i'm one of those thinking that the crisis has never ended, it has just been delayed. I've invested some of my money into metals to have a solid backbone and i'll keep waiting to see where this is going. Noone can foresee it, i'd keep my hands off and wait until something drives the markets down so i can buy at a low price.
With the increasing amount of countries considered bankrupt, i still wonder why everything keeps standing.
One of my microeconomics teachers told me day time trading in the long run nets the same average returns as just investing in a well established company and holding onto your stocks for 15 or so years...
TD Ameritrade's ThinkorSwim trading platform is really good for those that are interested. It can do a lot of really cool things, most of which I don't even understand.
I've been making my living by trading CFD's since I was 18 (22 now). It's very fun and volatile. There are many good, easy-to-use platforms around as well. Some basic knowledge and studies can get you some good results, proceed with caution however, since it is as said, volatile.
Does anyone else think that netflix(NFLX) is gonna skyrocket over the next few years other than me? To me, streaming video is the way of the future and they are way ahead of the curve. The only major company doing so very afford-ably($8/month). The stock doubled over a years time and I'm guessing will probably do so again next year as well. Thoughts?
Imo penny stocks are the way to go. You just have to be smart about it.
A year ago we bought $400k of Nova gold at $0.63 cents, then sold at $9 dollars maybe four months later. My parents are practically set for life and now they are doing safe investments. You need to be smart with penny stocks, read up a lot on them, and use human phycology against people.
Also we keep 90% of all the money they own in gold, as the US dollar is extremely unstable volitile and I expect it to crash within a couple years and gold will become the world currency. As you can't print off gold like mad, unlike the US bills. And so far that's gone well, from $800 per ounce to $1500 is pretty good in such a short timerate, and I recommend for everyone here to invest in gold, much safer and easy profit. News keeps trying to trick people on how the price of gold is as high as it can go now it will plummet. Don't listen to that BS, they are just trying to get you to sell.
On April 20 2011 07:47 cynical wrote: Does anyone else think that netflix(NFLX) is gonna skyrocket over the next few years other than me? To me, streaming video is the way of the future and they are way ahead of the curve. The only major company doing so very afford-ably($8/month). The stock doubled over a years time and I'm guessing will probably do so again next year as well. Thoughts?
Actually the problem with netflix is that it really hasn't gotten out yet, and their profits are very similiar to that what they were a year ago, the reason the price went up is because other investors are hopeful of the same thing as you. I think it would be a good idea to read up on how much does it really appeal to the younger generation, because from what I gather, older people like doing the old-fashioned TV watching...
I definitely see a future with it, but it all depends how inflated the price is already.
I saw this last recession as the buying opportunity of a lifetime. I also had just received an enlistment bonus and tax free income while deployed to Iraq, not paying any rent/expenses at all, so I had a good amount to invest given my age.
I put most of the money into Bank of America (BAC) when it was trading at $4 and everyone thought the world was ending, sold it when it hit $16. Made a huge profit and put the money into VISGX, Vanguard small-cap index, which has more than doubled the growth of the S&P500 over the past year.
Sure, I took quite a big risk, but I was young and confident in my purchases, and I knew I had to act immediately or watch an amazing opportunity slip by. Not sure if there is a moral to this, just wanted to share my success story and maybe say that constant conservatism might not always be best, especially if you are young and can recover from your mistakes. To quote Warren Buffet:
"Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."
This is some advice I can give you from past experience in investing in stock.
The main mistake people do is randomly picking a stock, speculating on its future value, and buying or not by finding excuses/reasons to do so.
The way to do it is the exact opposite.
Start macro-wise, what are your expectations for the future world economy ? Boom or recession ? Depending on this your short or long positions will vary. Check consumer confidence indexes, building permits, patent deposits etc, there are also statistics on expectations of leading firms head of purchases. These give you an idea of where things are going, and are extremely good indicators.
Next, you need a stream of ideas. Pope allows condoms ? Look into latex. China cut rare earth exports ? Check mining companies. Economy picking up ? Check railway companies.
For instance assume you believe the demand for condoms will rise due to Christian's being allowed to use them . Does that mean you have to invest in the biggest Condom company in the US ? No. You probably have over 30 companies to pick from. May they be in Indonesia, Chile, France or Saudi Arabia. Choose the one which suits your beliefs, highest ROI ratio, lowest PE, solid management, very simple concepts.
If you wanted, you could also short companies who sell contraceptive pills, or god knows what, to increase your stake in a belief.
For the Airline industry for instance, I once looked up to 70 different companies, and pick the one which suits my beliefs the best.
This is bar far the best way to invest intelligently. If backed up by serious research, knowledge in statistics, and good intuition on ideas, you can make very good return.
I know a lot of people who invest differently however, and who also manage very well.
Also, something I like to do a lot is check security trading records for CEO's or major stakeholders, its entirely legal inside information and company buybacks are also great indicators of future stock movements.
Finally, dehumanise yourself. Don't cry over losses and don't cheer over gains. The best traders in the world only reach their expectations on 4 out of 10 trades. Why ? Because they cover risk and set strict sell out limits for themselves. The only time you should feel emotion over your investment is at the end of the year when you look at your final return.
There are thousands of investment strategies, but I am honestly convinced this is the best way to go. You rely only on yourself, and funnily enough, often end up going against the masses most of the time.
Stock -> analysis -> explanation is WRONG
Macro analysis -> Idea -> Industry analysis -> Idea -> Stock analysis -> go long/short is RIGHT
a good read on the basics of investing, it explains a lot more than what any of you have said
Couple that with some Graham, Fisher, and Malkiel
I find that hard to read when he says he doesnt believe anyone can make money off technical analysis. So...this guy is in finance and hasnt heard of prop trading/day trading?
Swing/Day traders generally depend much more on technicals than fundamentals because unless your trading broad market instruments / futures news doesnt come out for companies on that regular of a basis.
I personally base probably 60% of my trading off pure technicals if not more - I guess i'm insulted when he calls technical analysis a pseudoscience.
a good read on the basics of investing, it explains a lot more than what any of you have said
Couple that with some Graham, Fisher, and Malkiel
I find that hard to read when he says he doesnt believe anyone can make money off technical analysis. So...this guy is in finance and hasnt heard of prop trading/day trading?
Swing/Day traders generally depend much more on technicals than fundamentals because unless your trading broad market instruments / futures news doesnt come out for companies on that regular of a basis.
I personally base probably 60% of my trading off pure technicals if not more - I guess i'm insulted when he calls technical analysis a pseudoscience.
Taking anyone's investing opinion as science will often lead to failure. Having a solid foundation in many approaches to investing will allow you to find your personal comfort zone. Diversity of education is as important in investing as anything else.
I also feel like commenting on peoples perception of mutual funds.
MUTUAL FUNDS ARE NOT SAFER BY DEFAULT
Mutual funds are simply funds that must invest by certain criteria. If you choose a high return fixed income mutual fund for example - they invest in JUNK BONDS. They have substantially higher risk simply because of what style of fund they are. The safety of a mutual fund is all relative to the instruments they invest, and what benchmark they're working against.
This is an important thing to bring up whenever these online forums suggest mutual funds to novice investors. If you just pull up a list of mutual funds you'll see higher risk mutual funds at the top of the list, even for 10 yr performance but its not an accurate comparison of mutual funds. You must read the information provided on WHAT they're investing in.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote: I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
Have you considered key personnel risk for AAPL that is Steve Jobs?
On April 20 2011 09:00 MannerKiss wrote: I also feel like commenting on peoples perception of mutual funds.
MUTUAL FUNDS ARE NOT SAFER BY DEFAULT
Mutual funds are simply funds that must invest by certain criteria. If you choose a high return fixed income mutual fund for example - they invest in JUNK BONDS. They have substantially higher risk simply because of what style of fund they are. The safety of a mutual fund is all relative to the instruments they invest, and what benchmark they're working against.
This is an important thing to bring up whenever these online forums suggest mutual funds to novice investors. If you just pull up a list of mutual funds you'll see higher risk mutual funds at the top of the list, even for 10 yr performance but its not an accurate comparison of mutual funds. You must read the information provided on WHAT they're investing in.
Usually though, if you have to choose between investing in companies you don't know enough about and a mutual fund that holds similar companies, the mutual fund will do a better job. And if your going the raw materials/energy/etc big company route, they are pretty rock solid from a risk standpoint. Mutual funds is basically investment for dummies. Do a little research, but there's not much to mutual funds, really.If you manage to fark up your entire portfolio of mainly mutual funds, you are doing something BAD wrong, lol.
Also, merely having a really diverse portfolio of funds is basically risk free barring an epic market collapse. I, for example have the minimum amount in 7 different funds right now, only two of which deal with similar companies.
On April 20 2011 07:49 Skillz_Man wrote: Imo penny stocks are the way to go. You just have to be smart about it.
A year ago we bought $400k of Nova gold at $0.63 cents, then sold at $9 dollars maybe four months later. My parents are practically set for life and now they are doing safe investments. You need to be smart with penny stocks, read up a lot on them, and use human phycology against people.
Also we keep 90% of all the money they own in gold, as the US dollar is extremely unstable volitile and I expect it to crash within a couple years and gold will become the world currency. As you can't print off gold like mad, unlike the US bills. And so far that's gone well, from $800 per ounce to $1500 is pretty good in such a short timerate, and I recommend for everyone here to invest in gold, much safer and easy profit. News keeps trying to trick people on how the price of gold is as high as it can go now it will plummet. Don't listen to that BS, they are just trying to get you to sell.
Don't believe me? Do some research on it.
Problem is, US Dollar is the currency of the world, and it's doing better than the Euro LOL.
I don't like your fear mongering. Only people who want to sell their gold stock are like "TIME TO BUY GOLD IS NOW, btw buy from me!", quite a scam in my opinion.
for investing, just dump it all into some combination of SPY, VWO, AGG, TIP, (and GLD for good measure.)
if you're interested in trading, here's to hoping that you're lucky. the only way to reliably make money in the long run is to be consistently be smarter than other people, and that's a lot more difficult than being lucky.
On April 20 2011 07:49 Skillz_Man wrote: Imo penny stocks are the way to go. You just have to be smart about it.
A year ago we bought $400k of Nova gold at $0.63 cents, then sold at $9 dollars maybe four months later. My parents are practically set for life and now they are doing safe investments. You need to be smart with penny stocks, read up a lot on them, and use human phycology against people.
Also we keep 90% of all the money they own in gold, as the US dollar is extremely unstable volitile and I expect it to crash within a couple years and gold will become the world currency. As you can't print off gold like mad, unlike the US bills. And so far that's gone well, from $800 per ounce to $1500 is pretty good in such a short timerate, and I recommend for everyone here to invest in gold, much safer and easy profit. News keeps trying to trick people on how the price of gold is as high as it can go now it will plummet. Don't listen to that BS, they are just trying to get you to sell.
Don't believe me? Do some research on it.
Penny stocks are the way to go, put all your eggs in one basket, and gold is undervalued and will become the world currency.
Is this guy like a professional troll or what?
EDIT: Oh, and by the way.... Nova gold never went from .63 to $9 in maybe four months. Did you mean two years?
On April 20 2011 05:43 happyft wrote: I closely follow global TV sales as well as the Asia consumer electronics supply chain
simple market exposure at this point probably won't get you anywhere, you need to invest in the right companies
what do you read? tracking the asia consumer market supply chain is really interesting, especially because you can compare the numbers in china now to recently developed markets like korea and how that curve looked as korea and others got more developed.
I don't really understand why you think this is a stock pickers market. you can't know stocks won't move. that said, it is a fascinating natural conclusion if you know a market will basically move sideways.
On April 20 2011 08:06 jdseemoreglass wrote: I put most of the money into Bank of America (BAC) when it was trading at $4 and everyone thought the world was ending, sold it when it hit $16. Made a huge profit and put the money into VISGX, Vanguard small-cap index, which has more than doubled the growth of the S&P500 over the past year.
Sure, I took quite a big risk, but I was young
you are my hero. i'm curious what you were doing during the flash crash/mideast/japan nuclear crisis.
I'm mostly cash (i know, its awful), with the rest in S&P500, Emerging Market, and Large Cap mutual funds.
I want to experiment with buying index puts when vol is low, and buy index etfs when vol is high. Any opinions? Probably not many opportunities to really put on these trades though.
On April 20 2011 09:00 MannerKiss wrote: I also feel like commenting on peoples perception of mutual funds.
MUTUAL FUNDS ARE NOT SAFER BY DEFAULT
Mutual funds are simply funds that must invest by certain criteria. If you choose a high return fixed income mutual fund for example - they invest in JUNK BONDS. They have substantially higher risk simply because of what style of fund they are. The safety of a mutual fund is all relative to the instruments they invest, and what benchmark they're working against.
This is an important thing to bring up whenever these online forums suggest mutual funds to novice investors. If you just pull up a list of mutual funds you'll see higher risk mutual funds at the top of the list, even for 10 yr performance but its not an accurate comparison of mutual funds. You must read the information provided on WHAT they're investing in.
Usually though, if you have to choose between investing in companies you don't know enough about and a mutual fund that holds similar companies, the mutual fund will do a better job. And if your going the raw materials/energy/etc big company route, they are pretty rock solid from a risk standpoint. Mutual funds is basically investment for dummies. Do a little research, but there's not much to mutual funds, really.If you manage to fark up your entire portfolio of mainly mutual funds, you are doing something BAD wrong, lol.
Also, merely having a really diverse portfolio of funds is basically risk free barring an epic market collapse. I, for example have the minimum amount in 7 different funds right now, only two of which deal with similar companies.
I'm not necessarily trying to argue with the points you have. I do believe mutual funds are great tools for amateurs and seasoned investors alike. Let me say that up front. Mutual funds CAN BE alot less risky and most are intended to be(and are) much less risky, or roughly the same risk level as an index fund (a fund that say tracks the S&P500).
However.
People need to understand that the amount of research you do into any given mutual fund should be no less than if you reviewed a certain stock. We're talking HOURS of research.
Its not uncommon for say, YOUNG ADULTS to log into their favorite website (teamliquid) and read in a general form from anonymous posters that "mutual funds are like investing for dummies" and not fully understand what they're getting into.
The problem is trying to help people not "fark up their entire portfolio". We're trying to give ADVICE to keep them from doing something "BAD wrong".
It is certainly possible to BLOW UP your whole portfolio by picking bad mutual funds (even diversified) if you dont know what you're doing.
Being in the profession, its easy to see when people just open up a list of mutual funds after reading the age old "MUTUAL FUNDS ARE FOR NOOBS" and buy all the ones with the high yeilds, not realizing that they've just invested into a mutual fund for junk bonds or an energy mutual fund invested too heavily in one NUCLEAR power company (basically not diversified well enough fund).
Now you do bring up some excellent points (and so do many people in this thread) and i wanna repeat them for anyone seriously reading this thread.
YOU NEED TO DIVERSIFY AND BUY MULTIPLE MUTUAL FUNDS. Some people think that if they buy one mutual fund that owns 30 stocks in all difference sectors that they're diversified. You're not. What if that fund turns out to be fraudulent?
It IS HARD to fark up your whole portfolio in mutual funds if you diversify well.
TL/DR Mutual funds require just as much due diligence as stock purchases. If you're investing alone, you have no one to blame but you if shit goes wrong in one (or many) of them.
PS (not an attack on you I promise your point isnt wrong) "merely having a really diverse portfolio of funds is basically risk free" Dont tell anyone in finance this or you'll get facepalmed.
EDIT: Re-reading this ...this post sounds sort of hostile. I'm really not attacking any of the information in this thread, just trying to issue a warning to any people seriously reading this thread.
you are my hero. i'm curious what you were doing during the flash crash/mideast/japan nuclear crisis.
I'm mostly cash (i know, its awful), with the rest in S&P500, Emerging Market, and Large Cap mutual funds.
I want to experiment with buying index puts when vol is low, and buy index etfs when vol is high. Any opinions? Probably not many opportunities to really put on these trades though.
To be honest I believe mostly in just buying and holding low-cost index funds for the long term. The only reason I made such an aggressive bet was because the situation was so unique and it was a great opportunity. My only advice is to invest purely with your head and don't ever let emotion (especially fear) dictate your decisions. It doesn't take a genius or intense technical analysis or fancy trading to make money in the market, just independent thinking and common sense.
Just wondering, is there any way to see who (the major players) made the price of a stock go up/down? For example, suppose the stock of company A dropped 10% today. Is there any way to find out that it was mutual fund X who dumped that stock?
On April 20 2011 10:38 Yferi wrote: Just wondering, is there any way to see who (the major players) made the price of a stock go up/down? For example, suppose the stock of company A dropped 10% today. Is there any way to find out that it was mutual fund X who dumped that stock?
Yes. People pay hundreds of thousands of dollars to try and find out who big players are. Biggest players do their best to disguise themselves because of high freq. traders.
High freq. traders basically use algorithms to "sniff out" big players, and buy shares ahead of their big purchase orders.
Big trades or "high touch" trades are slowly becoming a thing of the past now. Most firms find it cheaper to use low touch or trading algorithms that basically split their giant say, 1 million share purchase into many 100 share or 200 share purchases. They usually outsource this to other firms that specialize in using these algorithms though, so finding them now is extreamly difficult.
For the amateur investor unless you read about it or manage to see fund x has 1m shares in company y today, and 0 tomorrow, you'll never know.
On April 20 2011 07:49 Skillz_Man wrote: Imo penny stocks are the way to go. You just have to be smart about it.
A year ago we bought $400k of Nova gold at $0.63 cents, then sold at $9 dollars maybe four months later. My parents are practically set for life and now they are doing safe investments. You need to be smart with penny stocks, read up a lot on them, and use human phycology against people.
Also we keep 90% of all the money they own in gold, as the US dollar is extremely unstable volitile and I expect it to crash within a couple years and gold will become the world currency. As you can't print off gold like mad, unlike the US bills. And so far that's gone well, from $800 per ounce to $1500 is pretty good in such a short timerate, and I recommend for everyone here to invest in gold, much safer and easy profit. News keeps trying to trick people on how the price of gold is as high as it can go now it will plummet. Don't listen to that BS, they are just trying to get you to sell.
Don't believe me? Do some research on it.
Problem is, US Dollar is the currency of the world, and it's doing better than the Euro LOL.
I don't like your fear mongering. Only people who want to sell their gold stock are like "TIME TO BUY GOLD IS NOW, btw buy from me!", quite a scam in my opinion.
I agree with this, the entire doom-sayer attitude is not cool. Besides, it's a bit late to jump on the gold train now, the peak may be very close. I'd keep clear from the gold altogether, it can be classified as high risk right now.
"Nothing gold can stay" perhaps fitting here, heh.
The overbought silver, however, looks like a tempting short.
This is some advice I can give you from past experience in investing in stock.
The main mistake people do is randomly picking a stock, speculating on its future value, and buying or not by finding excuses/reasons to do so.
The way to do it is the exact opposite.
Start macro-wise, what are your expectations for the future world economy ? Boom or recession ? Depending on this your short or long positions will vary. Check consumer confidence indexes, building permits, patent deposits etc, there are also statistics on expectations of leading firms head of purchases. These give you an idea of where things are going, and are extremely good indicators.
Next, you need a stream of ideas. Pope allows condoms ? Look into latex. China cut rare earth exports ? Check mining companies. Economy picking up ? Check railway companies.
For instance assume you believe the demand for condoms will rise due to Christian's being allowed to use them . Does that mean you have to invest in the biggest Condom company in the US ? No. You probably have over 30 companies to pick from. May they be in Indonesia, Chile, France or Saudi Arabia. Choose the one which suits your beliefs, highest ROI ratio, lowest PE, solid management, very simple concepts.
If you wanted, you could also short companies who sell contraceptive pills, or god knows what, to increase your stake in a belief.
For the Airline industry for instance, I once looked up to 70 different companies, and pick the one which suits my beliefs the best.
This is bar far the best way to invest intelligently. If backed up by serious research, knowledge in statistics, and good intuition on ideas, you can make very good return.
I know a lot of people who invest differently however, and who also manage very well.
Also, something I like to do a lot is check security trading records for CEO's or major stakeholders, its entirely legal inside information and company buybacks are also great indicators of future stock movements.
Finally, dehumanise yourself. Don't cry over losses and don't cheer over gains. The best traders in the world only reach their expectations on 4 out of 10 trades. Why ? Because they cover risk and set strict sell out limits for themselves. The only time you should feel emotion over your investment is at the end of the year when you look at your final return.
There are thousands of investment strategies, but I am honestly convinced this is the best way to go. You rely only on yourself, and funnily enough, often end up going against the masses most of the time.
Stock -> analysis -> explanation is WRONG
Macro analysis -> Idea -> Industry analysis -> Idea -> Stock analysis -> go long/short is RIGHT
Anyone here have the same approach ?
I do the same, and I think any buy-side analyst worth his salt has the same approach. Everyone who's interested in fundamental investing should read Nqsty's post, although I don't put too much emphasis on buybacks/major holders -- I've found from experience that even mgmt and funds regularly get it wrong, especially if it's a turnaround/show-me story.
On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote: I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote: I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
Have you considered key personnel risk for AAPL that is Steve Jobs?
Unless Jobs actually passes away, I don't think there will be an impact to the stock. He's taken multiple leaves of absences now, and the company continues to execute as if nothing has happened. As to what will happen if he actually does pass away -- well, that's anyone's guess. But I imagine there will be a few days of sell-off, some overhang for several weeks until their next earnings report, and then people's senses will come back.
Btw, Intel reported great numbers and gave great guidance too last night, and gave an optimistic forecast for the year, better than what IDC or Gartner had been forecasting (especially since IDC recently decreased their PC forecast for the year). So I'm feeling better about being long now, even if Intel commented the growth was all in emerging markets, whereas consumer is still a little weak in US/EU (though offset by strength in enterprise).
Also, AT&T reported 3.6M iPhones activated (+33% yoy) in 1Q vs. 32% yoy growth in 4Q, so pretty good. Gives me stronger confidence AAPL will beat consensus expectations on iPhone sales when they report tonight.
On April 20 2011 05:43 happyft wrote: I closely follow global TV sales as well as the Asia consumer electronics supply chain
simple market exposure at this point probably won't get you anywhere, you need to invest in the right companies
what do you read? tracking the asia consumer market supply chain is really interesting, especially because you can compare the numbers in china now to recently developed markets like korea and how that curve looked as korea and others got more developed.
I don't really understand why you think this is a stock pickers market. you can't know stocks won't move. that said, it is a fascinating natural conclusion if you know a market will basically move sideways.
Haha well...since you asked...
DigiTimes gets you a lot of the information you need on what's happening in Asia BUT ... HUGE BUT here ... DigiTimes will publish anything and everything they hear, including completely baseless rumors, and they will publish articles that contradict things they said the day before. So take what they say with a huge grain of salt.
A more trustworthy source would be to follow the LCD panel industry, like GLW/AUO/LPL. GLW provides a lot of macro annual data on its quarterly calls, whereas AUO/LPL give a lot of quarterly granuality. Other sources of info include hard-drive makers, notebook manufacturers, and LED chipmakers. And then there's the whole semiconductor space (the guys who provide the processors, raw materials, cameras, touch sensors, DVD drives, and all the specific components that go into handsets like baseband, wifi, gps)
Finally, another very big warning -- these guys are just the suppliers. A good or bad quarter for the supplier doesn't necessarily mean a good or bad quarter for the customer -- but a good quarter for the customer does mean a good quarter for the supplier. This holds true especially when you think about inventory corrections -- even if iPads are growing spectacularly, if AAPL say ordered 60M of them but only sold 40M for the year, AAPL wouldn't give another order to its suppliers until that extra 20M is sold off, which might take 6 months. That's 6 months of no orders from AAPL for these suppliers. When situations like this happen, that's really bad for the suppliers, and the further "upstream" you are (or the further you are from the end-market/end-customer), the worse the inventory problem will get for you.
Ehh...I feel pretty dissatisfied with a post like this, because I could spend days further expanding on each paragraph. This is pretty much why your first year as an analyst on Wall Street you're pretty much doing nothing but learning and are nearly useless to your boss except doing really simple stuff. Even in your second year, it takes a lot for you to be able to meaningfully contribute anything.
In regards to why I think the market will move sideways (and by that I mean it will move up and down within a range) is that there doesn't seem to be many levers or possibilities for upside or downside to where we're at right now, and it seems like most people's expectations are correctly set this way. Cautiously optimistic but not sticking your neck out is everyone's attitude, and that's how it should be. That being said, greater minds than mine are able to make great calls on when the consumer will recover, I leave that to the macro economist/analyst. I feel much more comfortable making calls on individual companies, because I have a much better grasp of how a specific product will sell, then on some nebulous global debt or GDP number =P But huge props to those macro guys who can do that well, and consistently!
On April 20 2011 09:00 MannerKiss wrote: I also feel like commenting on peoples perception of mutual funds.
MUTUAL FUNDS ARE NOT SAFER BY DEFAULT
Mutual funds are simply funds that must invest by certain criteria. If you choose a high return fixed income mutual fund for example - they invest in JUNK BONDS. They have substantially higher risk simply because of what style of fund they are. The safety of a mutual fund is all relative to the instruments they invest, and what benchmark they're working against.
This is an important thing to bring up whenever these online forums suggest mutual funds to novice investors. If you just pull up a list of mutual funds you'll see higher risk mutual funds at the top of the list, even for 10 yr performance but its not an accurate comparison of mutual funds. You must read the information provided on WHAT they're investing in.
Usually though, if you have to choose between investing in companies you don't know enough about and a mutual fund that holds similar companies, the mutual fund will do a better job. And if your going the raw materials/energy/etc big company route, they are pretty rock solid from a risk standpoint. Mutual funds is basically investment for dummies. Do a little research, but there's not much to mutual funds, really.If you manage to fark up your entire portfolio of mainly mutual funds, you are doing something BAD wrong, lol.
Also, merely having a really diverse portfolio of funds is basically risk free barring an epic market collapse. I, for example have the minimum amount in 7 different funds right now, only two of which deal with similar companies.
I'm not necessarily trying to argue with the points you have. I do believe mutual funds are great tools for amateurs and seasoned investors alike. Let me say that up front. Mutual funds CAN BE alot less risky and most are intended to be(and are) much less risky, or roughly the same risk level as an index fund (a fund that say tracks the S&P500).
However.
People need to understand that the amount of research you do into any given mutual fund should be no less than if you reviewed a certain stock. We're talking HOURS of research.
Its not uncommon for say, YOUNG ADULTS to log into their favorite website (teamliquid) and read in a general form from anonymous posters that "mutual funds are like investing for dummies" and not fully understand what they're getting into.
The problem is trying to help people not "fark up their entire portfolio". We're trying to give ADVICE to keep them from doing something "BAD wrong".
It is certainly possible to BLOW UP your whole portfolio by picking bad mutual funds (even diversified) if you dont know what you're doing.
Being in the profession, its easy to see when people just open up a list of mutual funds after reading the age old "MUTUAL FUNDS ARE FOR NOOBS" and buy all the ones with the high yeilds, not realizing that they've just invested into a mutual fund for junk bonds or an energy mutual fund invested too heavily in one NUCLEAR power company (basically not diversified well enough fund).
Now you do bring up some excellent points (and so do many people in this thread) and i wanna repeat them for anyone seriously reading this thread.
YOU NEED TO DIVERSIFY AND BUY MULTIPLE MUTUAL FUNDS. Some people think that if they buy one mutual fund that owns 30 stocks in all difference sectors that they're diversified. You're not. What if that fund turns out to be fraudulent?
It IS HARD to fark up your whole portfolio in mutual funds if you diversify well.
TL/DR Mutual funds require just as much due diligence as stock purchases. If you're investing alone, you have no one to blame but you if shit goes wrong in one (or many) of them.
PS (not an attack on you I promise your point isnt wrong) "merely having a really diverse portfolio of funds is basically risk free" Dont tell anyone in finance this or you'll get facepalmed.
EDIT: Re-reading this ...this post sounds sort of hostile. I'm really not attacking any of the information in this thread, just trying to issue a warning to any people seriously reading this thread.
Pretty much everything you said is true, but I will argue that unless you're going with relatively obscure funds, you don't have to do hours and hours of research on them. For instance I have several of Fidelity's really big funds, recommended by just about every market analyst out there. For things like that......really there is no major risk, and I probably only have a couple hours total in research in those big funds.... They invest solidly, and have been performing very solidly for the last 10 years. The returns might be projected as a bit higher for some of the more random obscure funds, but........obviously they are more risky.
Basically just want to say this, kind as a little bit of an argument against you but, not really. Mutual funds ARE investing for dummies. But that doesn't mean you don't need to research anything. It just means most of your research is already done for you by the 10 million market analysts out there, and apart from your initial/annual/whatever investment in them, they are pretty much worry free and don't need any micromanagement.
Here is what I did to select my funds. Figure out which sector you want to invest in. I selected raw materials and natural resources initially due to the market situation, and what i believe will be a big part of the worlds economy in the near future. Since I was starting, i went with large cap....big companies. I looked for long standing funds managed by people with a lot of experience. That narrowed down my intial process really far, and a couple of 4/5 star rated(Morningstar) funds really stood out. From there you really can't go wrong.
Looking forward, and as I do more study, I'm definitely looking at some healthcare related small cap funds. A little more risky, but I believe health care will be the next big play, and so I'm looking at a comparatively risk free way to jump into that market.
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Keep in mind those "hedge funds and professional investors" do not necessarily have the same modus operandi as the little guys. The standard hedge fund cost structure is the infamous "2 and 20" (although I think in the past year or so that's come down to "1 and 15") -- "2" for the 2% management fee on all assets under management every year and "20" for the 20% performance fee over and above some set pre-set hurdle (usually 15%).
If you do the math, as these managers all do, you will realize that you can make muuuuuch more money by growing your asset base and earning that "2" than by outperforming the market to earn that "20". And how do you grow that asset base? By slowly compounding your returns? Hell no. You go out and beg pension funds and other institutional investors to give you billions of dollars at a time.
As the industry stands, incentives are misaligned. Large fund managers are highly incentivized to be good salesman and marketers -- people who can go on the road and sell their story, attracting investment capital to earn that "2". They are not, for the most part, incentivized to actually perform really well. Nor does the size of their fund indicate how well they actually have done....
One other advantage the individual investor has is the ability to move into positions that larger funds might not even care about. As an example, look at all the small-cap companies out there with market capitalizations of around $500 million. Do you know what a $500 million investment for a $10 billion fund represents? That's 5% of their total portfolio. In other words a $10 billion fund would have to buy the entire company just to make an impact on their own returns. So there's an entire world of stocks that the big guys don't even look at. Which means your competition as the individual investor is less, "hedge funds and professional investors" than it would be if all you looked at were mega-caps.
While I largely agree that you shouldn't invest the brunt of your money in penny stocks...it can be so fun and exciting, particularly if you research it sufficiently.
Bought it at $1.21 a few weeks ago, its doubled since. Pundits didn't catch on to copper fox early because copper fox did a bad job of selling itself, so the company was undervalued. Then, over the last month, they've done various tests at their site to see the scope of the deposit they will be mining. My understanding is that they are extremely conservative about what information they release so there could be a larger deposit than is currently suggests. And in mid June their feasibility study should be complete - so if that goes well (I'm optimistic) the value of this stock could double or triple once again.
On April 20 2011 09:39 allecto wrote: Technical forex trading. Go big or go home.
Forex trading was the bane of my financial simulation classes. Still wake up in cold sweats because of the volatility of currency trading. No way I could do that full time.
AAPL just reported numbers and they crushed it. $24.7B rev and $6.40 EPS vs. Street's $23.4B and $5.37. Even bigger is their gross margin of 41.4% vs. Street's 38.9%! iPhone unit shipments of 18.6M vs. Street's 16.25M!
Only two blemishes: iPad units were strangely below expectations, likely due to huge shortage and pent up demand for iPad 2 (launched in 3/11), not worried about that at all -- and their guidance was slightly below Street estimates, which is a little strange considering how much they beat this quarter, even though they always significantly under-promise over-deliver on their guidance every single time.
Stock up only +2.5% after hours, but man, what a beat. Intel beating strongly last night, now Apple, tech is doing really well.
I think what most of you probably don't realize 1) Everybody makes it sound like beating the market it easy after some research. You do realize that its really rare that professionals actually beat the market? Net of expenses, mutual funds generally don't beat the market. 2) For all you people with advice in this tread, must of it is... You guys really have no clue about the amount of risk your taking on.
Now to get to hedge funds. It it really relevant to this thread? Does anybody here have the actual capital to actually invest in one? Anyway, must of the successful hedge funds don't even report to an index and are closed to investments
My opinion as a professional trader with a 7-digit personal portfolio and a few years of experience is that you should get nowhere close to investing significant amounts of money unless you have a deep understanding of what you are doing and the risks you are incurring. I personally find this thread somewhat disturbing, actually.
On April 21 2011 10:05 Hatsu wrote: My opinion as a professional trader with a 7-digit personal portfolio and a few years of experience is that you should get nowhere close to investing significant amounts of money unless you have a deep understanding of what you are doing and the risks you are incurring. I personally find this thread somewhat disturbing, actually.
Why is that? With the sheer amount of readily available information available to anyone that looks for it, it's not hard to be fairly well informed, and as long as you aren't delving too hard in really small cap companies and going crazy with spec picks instead of just going long-term with solid companies, most people do just fine without professional help.
On April 21 2011 08:30 IronFenix wrote: I think what most of you probably don't realize 1) Everybody makes it sound like beating the market it easy after some research. You do realize that its really rare that professionals actually beat the market? Net of expenses, mutual funds generally don't beat the market. 2) For all you people with advice in this tread, must of it is... You guys really have no clue about the amount of risk your taking on.
Now to get to hedge funds. It it really relevant to this thread? Does anybody here have the actual capital to actually invest in one? Anyway, must of the successful hedge funds don't even report to an index and are closed to investments
YOU have no idea what you are talking about here. I have several funds with DECADES of history of averaging 10-12% annual returns, with expense ratios of <1%. How do you think people save up and retire at all? By keeping your money in a pillow or burying it in your back yard? How do you think annuities and retirement accounts work?? You don't have to necessarily "beat the market", you just need to let compound interest work over time.
On April 21 2011 10:05 Hatsu wrote: My opinion as a professional trader with a 7-digit personal portfolio and a few years of experience is that you should get nowhere close to investing significant amounts of money unless you have a deep understanding of what you are doing and the risks you are incurring. I personally find this thread somewhat disturbing, actually.
No one here is talking about investing significant amounts of money. We're talking about small idle money with rates barely covering inflation, and what to do with it.
Don't act like you're above everyone else, be useful, give a few tips to people who don't have your experience. Trying to get off as a Modest Warren buffet isn't helping anyone here, and especially not yourself.
Read posts, criticize, and help out the community, because if you actually are a professional trader, you probably have a lot to share !
Your more then welcome to elaborate. The question is not whether or not you got returns or not. It's beating the market. Did your fund have better returns then say the S&P for the same amount of systematic risk?
and for your record. Mutual funds typically have 2-3% in fees. Add in trailer fees, admin fees and general expenses, these fees ad up pretty quickly. Also, most of general financial literature will agree that mutual funds don't do better then the market. That fund managers can't consistently beat it.
Can people please stop talking about mutual funds beating the market. Most of them dont try to beat the MARKET. All mutual funds compete against a BENCHMARK. They're funds with a specific design that try to beat a specific benchmark thats translatable to their investment goals. I'm confused if many of you even know what you're talking about.
OF COURSE A FUND THAT INVESTS 40% IN TREASURIES DOESNT BEAT THE S&P 500. They're not trying to. You need to relate mutual funds against the benchmark and compare their risk vs return to decide if they out performed.
Your more then welcome to elaborate. The question is not whether or not you got returns or not. It's beating the market. Did your fund have better returns then say the S&P for the same amount of systematic risk?
and for your record. Mutual funds typically have 2-3% in fees. Add in trailer fees, admin fees and general expenses, these fees ad up pretty quickly. Also, most of general financial literature will agree that mutual funds don't do better then the market. That fund managers can't consistently beat it.
Lol, not trying to be rude, but you're really trying to tell me what my funds charge me in fees? I just looked at my funds again, and none of my major ones are over 1%......the market average is actually only 1.4%, so I really don't think you really know what you're really talking about here, to be honest.
And again, you don't really HAVE to beat the market with mutual funds.......you just want consistent, low risk returns so interest can do it's job. And many of the funds I use are composed of mostly S&P500 companies and the like, so it basically mirrors the market, I caught two of them when they were a decent bit lower than the market for whatever reason, and now they've caught up, and I've "beat" the market just by choosing a good time to put my money in.
My uranium/nuclear, stocks I got, however, I fully expect to far surpass the market returns over the next year.
Dangdang 30% return in 2 months Youku 30% return in 2 months ATVI 20% return in 6 months MPEL 20% return in 2 months and bought back in for 15% return in 1 month
Then I've made some shit ass calls that make me look dumb.
BSPM 40% loss AIG 40% loss MRK 10% loss over 6 months
I've started to realize that I hold my losers tooo long and sell my winners way too quickly. If i had a more disciplined approach then I would be better off.
But fuck it. GAMBOLLLLLLLL
edit: sage advice, stay the fuck away from chinese stocks that have extremely low P/E. They are not to be trusted..
On April 21 2011 10:05 Hatsu wrote: My opinion as a professional trader with a 7-digit personal portfolio and a few years of experience is that you should get nowhere close to investing significant amounts of money unless you have a deep understanding of what you are doing and the risks you are incurring. I personally find this thread somewhat disturbing, actually.
No one here is talking about investing significant amounts of money. We're talking about small idle money with rates barely covering inflation, and what to do with it.
Don't act like you're above everyone else, be useful, give a few tips to people who don't have your experience. Trying to get off as a Modest Warren buffet isn't helping anyone here, and especially not yourself.
Read posts, criticize, and help out the community, because if you actually are a professional trader, you probably have a lot to share !
I am not trying to come off as anything nor I would dream of seeking help here, with all due respect. People here are talking about investing their savings and some of them come off, as other posters have pointed out, as rather ignorant. As such, they should not be allowed to trade without supervision, as they don't understand the risks (which is why some countries have laws against just that).
So thanks for your tips on how to use an Internet forum, but I did read the whole topic and I feel that most of the posters should not be doing this. I apologize if this offends anyone and good luck with your investing or trading activities.
On April 21 2011 10:05 Hatsu wrote: My opinion as a professional trader with a 7-digit personal portfolio and a few years of experience is that you should get nowhere close to investing significant amounts of money unless you have a deep understanding of what you are doing and the risks you are incurring. I personally find this thread somewhat disturbing, actually.
No one here is talking about investing significant amounts of money. We're talking about small idle money with rates barely covering inflation, and what to do with it.
Don't act like you're above everyone else, be useful, give a few tips to people who don't have your experience. Trying to get off as a Modest Warren buffet isn't helping anyone here, and especially not yourself.
Read posts, criticize, and help out the community, because if you actually are a professional trader, you probably have a lot to share !
I am not trying to come off as anything nor I would dream of seeking help here, with all due respect. People here are talking about investing their savings and some of them come off, as other posters have pointed out, as rather ignorant. As such, they should not be allowed to trade without supervision, as they don't understand the risks (which is why some countries have laws against just that).
So thanks for your tips on how to use an Internet forum, but I did read the whole topic and I feel that most of the posters should not be doing this. I apologize if this offends anyone and good luck with your investing or trading activities.
Basically agree with you. If you want to punt with money you can afford to lose, by all means go and do it. But investing is not the same thing as trading, and I think a lot of posts on this thread confuse the two. Honestly, if you want to trade, worry less about the vehicle and more about risk management. Trading requires a far bigger capital pool then investing in a mutual fund. It isn't possible to get reasonably diversified short of etf's/mutual funds off of a small amount of capital - so if you want to invest (as opposed to getting rich of your l33t trading skillz) keep it simple.
There are old traders, there are bold traders, but there are no old and bold traders. Almost every professional trader has that story when they're young and manage to blow up. I mean there's basically two ways to learn the lesson - blow up yourself or try to listen.
I've started to realize that I hold my losers tooo long and sell my winners way too quickly. If i had a more disciplined approach then I would be better off.
Smart words
A classic for all kinds of risk taking, stock market or otherwise
I am literally just starting to get into the stock market and have a few questions about it. What do you think is the minimum amount to start with? (I don't have much money at MOST probably can put in 1k atm) Since I'm starting with a low amount should I put it all into one safe stock? Spread it out? What are a few sites I could start learning more about it, there are so many and I don't know the good from the bad so I figured I would ask the wonderful tl community =).
1K is fine to start, but at most brokerages you won't be able to day trade, short, or play with options
to be absolutely safe i'd wait at least until the end of june before considering going long anything. use this time to really study up on every market and economics
Who's got the hot tip on some micro-penny stocks? If you're looking for some sound advice perhaps TL isn't the best place to go, but seriously who's got the scoop on the next big movers?!?
On a more serious note, what do you guys think of ATVI. I'm guessing it's undervalued atm. I devote a lot of effort into following Blizz games so I might as well track it.
On June 19 2011 03:02 indigoawareness wrote: Who's got the hot tip on some micro-penny stocks? If you're looking for some sound advice perhaps TL isn't the best place to go, but seriously who's got the scoop on the next big movers?!?
On a more serious note, what do you guys think of ATVI. I'm guessing it's undervalued atm. I devote a lot of effort into following Blizz games so I might as well track it.
No offence, and I really mean no offence, but you need to sit down with a text book and read Finance 101, you have the completely wrong approach to smart investing, read the previous posts some people have contributed to the thread and you'll understand why.
On June 19 2011 00:46 tiffany wrote: 1K is fine to start, but at most brokerages you won't be able to day trade, short, or play with options
to be absolutely safe i'd wait at least until the end of june before considering going long anything. use this time to really study up on every market and economics
yea i was not going to start anytime before the end of the month, maybe not even july...are there any sites you'd reccomend me to help me move along in learning?
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Many hedge funds companies charge pretty ridiculous prices for rather marginal returns than what you would get yourself. Look at the 08/09 crashes...almost all those funds completely tanked with the rest of the market. People with their money in those funds did just as poorly as people with their own stocks.
Plus, any manager will tell you.......the stock market is ridiculously unpredictable. All the analysis in the world won't keep you from completely lucking out and having 90% of your investment go down the drain due to random and almost completely unrelated problems.
I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
thanks for the tip... i'm going to move some there now
supply is probably going up, also the reason for the tanking are temporary (due to the japan crisis?)
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Many hedge funds companies charge pretty ridiculous prices for rather marginal returns than what you would get yourself. Look at the 08/09 crashes...almost all those funds completely tanked with the rest of the market. People with their money in those funds did just as poorly as people with their own stocks.
Plus, any manager will tell you.......the stock market is ridiculously unpredictable. All the analysis in the world won't keep you from completely lucking out and having 90% of your investment go down the drain due to random and almost completely unrelated problems.
I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
thanks for the tip... i'm going to move some there now
supply is probably going up, also the reason for the tanking are temporary (due to the japan crisis?)
I'd be careful, some countries are now trying to make a move away from nuclear(see Germany), and consequently any nuclear related stocks are getting hammered, plus commodities are still way down anyways. might as well wait for commodities to come up a bit. Nuclear stocks WILL make some kind of comeback, they are almost ludicrously low right now, but no sense tying money up in them right now, imo.
[QUOTE]On April 21 2011 10:31 Sm3agol wrote: [QUOTE]On April 21 2011 10:05 Hatsu wrote: My opinion as a professional trader with a 7-digit personal portfolio and a few years of experience is that you should get nowhere close to investing significant amounts of money unless you have a deep understanding of what you are doing and the risks you are incurring. I personally find this thread somewhat disturbing, actually. [/QUOTE] Why is that? With the sheer amount of readily available information available to anyone that looks for it, it's not hard to be fairly well informed, and as long as you aren't delving too hard in really small cap companies and going crazy with spec picks instead of just going long-term with solid companies, most people do just fine without professional help.
Theres a difference between spotting a good company and knowing if a good company is a good investment. Apple may be shit hot but its stock may be way overpriced because everybody wants a piece of the pie.
There is a lot of information available but I'd take it with a pinch of salt. Afterall, some big Investment banks are currently in hot water for recommending positions to clients where the bank held the opposite position (Goldman says sell silver while they are buying or w/e)
The bottom line for me is this. People need to be well informed about the choices they make and above all, understand the risks. Anyone that makes serious investment choices based solely off advice on an internet gaming forum deserves the outcome they will most likely get.
Understand the difference between investing and trading and know that places want you to trade so they can scalp you with commisions and margins.
Sorry, I'm still very uninitiated into stock, so is there some sort of place where I can practice buying & selling stock, preferably as close to the real market as possible?
I have been interested in learning about day trading using stock options. What are some recommended sites to learn about making money via stock options and are there some pointers that a beginner should know?
Hi, I've got about $5000 (and more coming, steadily at about $300-$500/mo) that I seek to invest for roughly 7% annually for a 4-5 year total of around $60000 (which will be used as a down payment for a house).
I asked in the trader thread, but it seems that's a bit different than what I'm looking for. Also, this seems to be the latest thread on the subject. I'm looking for low-moderate risk investments (that i can continually add more cash to), dividends not required, and I can wait 4-5 years for it to mature. I have done my best to do some reading (but I am still noob) and I think I should invest in index funds. However, I have a few concerns, namely:
1. Everyone says to not trust anyone. Don't trust your bank, don't trust mutual fund managers, don't trust brokers. Don't trust TL advice. So, who exactly do I trust? I have no idea where to begin. 2. Index funds basically ride the market, amirite? So if the euro and/or the dollar crashes the market I'm going to be in deep shit?
On September 30 2011 05:11 ToxNub wrote: Hi, I've got about $5000 (and more coming, steadily at about $300-$500/mo) that I seek to invest for roughly 7% annually for a 4-5 year total of around $60000 (which will be used as a down payment for a house).
I asked in the trader thread, but it seems that's a bit different than what I'm looking for. Also, this seems to be the latest thread on the subject. I'm looking for low-moderate risk investments (that i can continually add more cash to), dividends not required, and I can wait 4-5 years for it to mature. I have done my best to do some reading (but I am still noob) and I think I should invest in index funds. However, I have a few concerns, namely:
1. Everyone says to not trust anyone. Don't trust your bank, don't trust mutual fund managers, don't trust brokers. Don't trust TL advice. So, who exactly do I trust? I have no idea where to begin. 2. Index funds basically ride the market, amirite? So if the euro and/or the dollar crashes the market I'm going to be in deep shit?
Can't really help you with anything investment-related. I guess my advice would be do what I'll eventually do, buy and read a book that'll teach you the nuances of investing in the stock market.
I think your math is off, though. If you average $400 a month into the pool, and it stays constant at ~7%, you'll end up with about $40,000 after 5 years. You'll have to maintain $650 a month to reach the $60,000 goal after 5 years.
Not really important I pay what I can pay, and my investment returns what it returns... And I buy whatever pos I can afford with the results Those numbers are flexible.
On September 30 2011 05:11 ToxNub wrote: Hi, I've got about $5000 (and more coming, steadily at about $300-$500/mo) that I seek to invest for roughly 7% annually for a 4-5 year total of around $60000 (which will be used as a down payment for a house).
I asked in the trader thread, but it seems that's a bit different than what I'm looking for. Also, this seems to be the latest thread on the subject. I'm looking for low-moderate risk investments (that i can continually add more cash to), dividends not required, and I can wait 4-5 years for it to mature.
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news but you have unreasonable expectations. With a 4-5 year total investment horizon, the only things remotely approaching the suitable low-moderate risk are CDs and short-term bonds. In the current interest rate environment nothing safe with 4-5 year duration will yield above 3%.
Forget about stocks completely if your horizon is so short and you will need the money for a house downpayment.
On September 30 2011 05:11 ToxNub wrote: Hi, I've got about $5000 (and more coming, steadily at about $300-$500/mo) that I seek to invest for roughly 7% annually for a 4-5 year total of around $60000 (which will be used as a down payment for a house).
I asked in the trader thread, but it seems that's a bit different than what I'm looking for. Also, this seems to be the latest thread on the subject. I'm looking for low-moderate risk investments (that i can continually add more cash to), dividends not required, and I can wait 4-5 years for it to mature.
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news but you have unreasonable expectations. With a 4-5 year total investment horizon, the only things remotely approaching the suitable low-moderate risk are CDs and short-term bonds. In the current interest rate environment nothing safe with 4-5 year duration will yield above 3%.
Forget about stocks completely if your horizon is so short and you will need the money for a house downpayment.
Hmm. Almost every place I can find states 7% to be a reasonable expectation for an index fund?
On September 30 2011 05:11 ToxNub wrote: Hi, I've got about $5000 (and more coming, steadily at about $300-$500/mo) that I seek to invest for roughly 7% annually for a 4-5 year total of around $60000 (which will be used as a down payment for a house).
I asked in the trader thread, but it seems that's a bit different than what I'm looking for. Also, this seems to be the latest thread on the subject. I'm looking for low-moderate risk investments (that i can continually add more cash to), dividends not required, and I can wait 4-5 years for it to mature.
I am sorry to be the bearer of bad news but you have unreasonable expectations. With a 4-5 year total investment horizon, the only things remotely approaching the suitable low-moderate risk are CDs and short-term bonds. In the current interest rate environment nothing safe with 4-5 year duration will yield above 3%.
Forget about stocks completely if your horizon is so short and you will need the money for a house downpayment.
Hmm. Almost every place I can find states 7% to be a reasonable expectation for an index fund?
For a stock index fund, sure, just not on a 4-5 year horizon. On a 10-15+ year horizon more like it.
As an example, the S&P500 (US large caps) for the past 10 years, including dividends is essentially flat aka 0% return (but a crazy rollercoaster ride of ups and downs throughout the period). The Wilshire 5000, which is the US Total Market indes that also includes small caps is up about 2% annually over the past 10 years, again with crazy ups and downs.
Japan, including dividends, has been flat over the past 20 years.
You can expect 12% or 4% or whatever you want to shoot for, but that doesn't mean it will happen. Index funds follow the market, and we're in a global recession/depression. Ideally, to make money, you'll have to learn how to research individual companies to see what are actually in good shape, by looking at their profit/loss, cash reserves, a whole bunch of technical ratios and formulas and stuff, and it helps if you actually know something about the industry a company is in to know if it's products are any good. Index funds are a grab bag of good and bad companies, and only perform well if everybody's doing great overall. I think the federal interest rate is still 0% right now. Has been for a few years.
If you need the money in 4-5 years, consider a savings account or CD somewhere. You're not gonna make much money off of interest though.
On September 30 2011 06:09 Kyrth wrote: You can expect 12% or 4% or whatever you want to shoot for, but that doesn't mean it will happen.
Exactly. Sadly the term "expected returns" is very very misleading. It may happen or it may not. Nobody knows and the ones who claim they do know are frauds, every single one of them. Nobody knows what stock market is going to do in the next few years. Warren Buffett freely admits he has absolutely no idea what's going to happen in the next few years and you'd figure the world's #3 richest man who made his fortune specifically by investing would know a thing or two.
On September 30 2011 06:09 Kyrth wrote:Ideally, to make money, you'll have to learn how to research individual companies to see what are actually in good shape, by looking at their profit/loss, cash reserves, a whole bunch of technical ratios and formulas and stuff, and it helps if you actually know something about the industry a company is in to know if it's products are any good.
This is true, alas, it takes time, lots and lots of time and effort (and a little bit of dumb luck) which most people are simply not ready to spend. And even then, things may or may not play out in the time framerate you have in mind. The shorter the time frame, the worse your odds get. In 5 years time you could be up 100% or your initial investment or you could be down 60%. Or anything in-between.
If I was saving for a house downpayment with a 4-5 year horison, the very riskiest range I'd go would be something like:
1/3 A very very widely diversified Total Bond fund (with average duration no longer then about 7 years) 1/3 Short term bond fund (average duration no longer than 3 years) 1/3 CDs
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Many hedge funds companies charge pretty ridiculous prices for rather marginal returns than what you would get yourself. Look at the 08/09 crashes...almost all those funds completely tanked with the rest of the market. People with their money in those funds did just as poorly as people with their own stocks.
Plus, any manager will tell you.......the stock market is ridiculously unpredictable. All the analysis in the world won't keep you from completely lucking out and having 90% of your investment go down the drain due to random and almost completely unrelated problems.
I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
Funds have a 0.013 alpha (stat significant) in one large scale study. I doubt mom-and-pop individuals can generate this excess return.
Yeah. Interest rates are abysmal. Seriously, I was looking at canadian savings bonds the other day... 0.65%???? Are you fking kidding me? If I buy cheaper coffee I'll make more money than putting down 5k on those...
I looked at a couple CD and i'd be lucky to make 2-2.5%
Considering my lack of knowledge about the stockmarket, I have to wonder if it doesn't make more sense to find more "real-world" applications for my money. Yknow, like buying energy saving lightbulbs, or paying some kid to sell lemonade.
On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote: Plus, any manager will tell you.......the stock market is ridiculously unpredictable. All the analysis in the world won't keep you from completely lucking out and having 90% of your investment go down the drain due to random and almost completely unrelated problems.
I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked.
Did you miss that Japan and 1/3 of Europe (Germany, Switzerland and several others) are giving up nuclear power completely? Not only are currently-under-construction plans cancelled, existing plants are being winded down.
EDIT: I just realize that the post I am quoting is from April 20 Oh well, it least it shows that it was a pretty good example of the market tanking ahead of what eventually happened.
This is a trading thread, not an investing thread, but still there are tidbits of what kinds of things we are trading for profit right now
Dollar index fund is where i would stick your money right now
My concern about trading is that you need to know what you are doing. And you have to actively work at it. The nice thing about index funds is that, well, you don't. You give them money, and if you wait long enough, they give you back more.
This is a trading thread, not an investing thread, but still there are tidbits of what kinds of things we are trading for profit right now
Dollar index fund is where i would stick your money right now
My concern about trading is that you need to know what you are doing. And you have to actively work at it. The nice thing about index funds is that, well, you don't. You give them money, and if you wait long enough, they give you back more.
good luck with that...
There are some extremely simple strategies you can execute which will not only outperform index funds by a huge margin, but will PROTECT your savings in a falling market
Unfortunately for most, active and passive funds are not allowed to hedge themselves against falling markets, resulting in the vast majority of peoples personal savings and wealth vanishing in recessions
Traders will obviously attempt to do one step further and make money in all circumstances, but at the very least investors should seek to protect their assets
This is a trading thread, not an investing thread, but still there are tidbits of what kinds of things we are trading for profit right now
Dollar index fund is where i would stick your money right now
My concern about trading is that you need to know what you are doing. And you have to actively work at it. The nice thing about index funds is that, well, you don't. You give them money, and if you wait long enough, they give you back more.
good luck with that...
There are some extremely simple strategies you can execute which will not only outperform index funds by a huge margin, but will PROTECT your savings in a falling market
Yet for some very strange reason, Berkshire, JPM, Goldman (or specifically their equity division) all lose money when the market is in a freefall. If these strategies were simple and reliable for the very term, all the big boys would flock to them and all the inefficiencies making the stategy possible would be quickly arbitraged away.
Sure every major recession and stock market freefall there are a few well-known people and institutions who manage to dodge it or even make money on it. Yet, it seems to be different people every time, there are no persistent methods that work every time.
For every person who both jumped out and back into the market at just the right times in 2008-2009, there were 100,000 who sold out low, missed the entire rally back up and then got back in when it was "safe", with half the portfolio up in smoke. While those who sat tight throughout the entire rollercoaster didn't actually end up losing ANY money. Better yet, if they sold out some bonds and went even more heavily into stocks right at the bottom, they made out like bandits.
This is a trading thread, not an investing thread, but still there are tidbits of what kinds of things we are trading for profit right now
Dollar index fund is where i would stick your money right now
My concern about trading is that you need to know what you are doing. And you have to actively work at it. The nice thing about index funds is that, well, you don't. You give them money, and if you wait long enough, they give you back more.
good luck with that...
There are some extremely simple strategies you can execute which will not only outperform index funds by a huge margin, but will PROTECT your savings in a falling market
Yet for some very strange reason, Berkshire, JPM, Goldman (or specifically their equity division) all lose money when the market is in a freefall. If these strategies were simple and reliable for the very term, all the big boys would flock to them and all the inefficiencies making the stategy possible would be quickly arbitraged away.
Sure every major recession and stock market freefall there are a few well-known people and institutions who manage to dodge it or even make money on it. Yet, it seems to be different people every time, there are no persistent methods that work every time.
For every person who both jumped out and back into the market at just the right times in 2008-2009, there were 100,000 who sold out low, missed the entire rally back up and then got back in when it was "safe", with half the portfolio up in smoke. While those who sat tight throughout the entire rollercoaster didn't actually end up losing ANY money. Better yet, if they sold out some bonds and went even more heavily into stocks right at the bottom, they made out like bandits.
Big banks rely on bull markets for their profits. What you thought all their money comes from shorting markets and being evil? Banks do MARKET MAKING. This is only a small portion of their profit, they do a WHOLE bunch of other stuff on top to make money. Every bank wants there to be a bullish market since all their employees get paid in stock options as at least half of their bonus
Let me introduce to you a fund that has made 10% a year over the last 10 years, that i invented myself.
Buy when the green line is below blue, and sell when above
Tadaa, look at the fantasticly large profits you just made, even better you make money in falling markets!
So you know, i invest in this fund by shorting or going long the markets. It's served me pretty well. So given the current situation, i suggest you should invest the same!
My concern about trading is that you need to know what you are doing. And you have to actively work at it. The nice thing about index funds is that, well, you don't. You give them money, and if you wait long enough, they give you back more.
discretionary trading requires active work. automated trading is about management and monitoring (less than 10 min a day). the computer does all the trading for me. i dont pay attention to news. i trust my stats skills.
keep an open mind. trading does require a lot of effort though, especially in the beginning.
also, you really have to believe in your intelligence (mainly undergraduate understanding of statistical theory and time series) to succeed. most people will tell you trading is impossible or too hard for the normal person. its true. you need to be smart if you are going to succeed alone.
I'm about to try my hand at this... currently 16 so I'm starting on Investopedia (is that a good idea?) and reading a few books in the meantime. I love playing the market in games so I think this will be quite enjoyable (obv I need to learn how to be patient)
On October 01 2011 10:54 Soulish wrote: I'm about to try my hand at this... currently 16 so I'm starting on Investopedia (is that a good idea?) and reading a few books in the meantime. I love playing the market in games so I think this will be quite enjoyable (obv I need to learn how to be patient)
market in games is similar to the market in real life before computers.
you have a long time to be knowledgable, dont believe everything on investopedia about trading strategies lol. ive programmed a few of them and the ones i did programme are trash.
On October 01 2011 10:54 Soulish wrote: I'm about to try my hand at this... currently 16 so I'm starting on Investopedia (is that a good idea?) and reading a few books in the meantime. I love playing the market in games so I think this will be quite enjoyable (obv I need to learn how to be patient)
market in games is similar to the market in real life before computers.
you have a long time to be knowledgable, dont believe everything on investopedia about trading strategies lol. ive programmed a few of them and the ones i did programme are trash.
I'm planning to put in many hours per day for a few years before I actually invest. We'll see how it goes. Do you have any books you recommend for absolute beginners?
On October 01 2011 10:54 Soulish wrote: I'm about to try my hand at this... currently 16 so I'm starting on Investopedia (is that a good idea?) and reading a few books in the meantime. I love playing the market in games so I think this will be quite enjoyable (obv I need to learn how to be patient)
market in games is similar to the market in real life before computers.
you have a long time to be knowledgable, dont believe everything on investopedia about trading strategies lol. ive programmed a few of them and the ones i did programme are trash.
I'm planning to put in many hours per day for a few years before I actually invest. We'll see how it goes. Do you have any books you recommend for absolute beginners?
On October 01 2011 11:11 Soulish wrote: I'm planning to put in many hours per day for a few years before I actually invest. We'll see how it goes. Do you have any books you recommend for absolute beginners?
I read the first two and concluded that for the amount of effort required, and the amount of capital I had at my disposal, it'd be better to just get a second job. In other words, it was boring. If you find it interesting though go for it. You should be able to learn plenty in even a year's worth of effort if you put in several hours a day. (I never read the 3rd book; it's a textbook and I already decided not to bother by the time I made it through the first two. It's supposed to be good though. Dhandho Investor is very readable)
I've been diving lately into cannabis stocks since they're cheap and could eventually rise. I did make about $2k a couple of months ago off MJNA, which was nice. Also just been looking into what to invest it, so bringing this thread back up would be helpful in a way.
It's interesting reading some of the past posts in this thread from six years ago.
Like I've said elsewhere, I'm kinda weary of the stock market. Stocks are really damned expensive right now on a P/E basis. I also get the sense that many stocks are being buoyed artificially by the current prevalence of fund trading. Why gamble on a particular stock when you can automatically hedge your risk by selecting an ETF? All of that said, I do expect animal spirits to continue to drive the market upwards in the short term on pure speculation.
Personally, I'm letting my retirement funds ride in equities for now, but the rest of my investment money is tied up in real estate in Colorado. At least here I have good information on what's going on so that I can actually feel like I'm "investing."
For low to median incomes churning, indexing and making the optimal use of tax deferment to minimize tax obligations are the key. I consider myself reasonably knowledgeable on all three.
On May 12 2017 01:46 xDaunt wrote: It's interesting reading some of the past posts in this thread from six years ago.
Like I've said elsewhere, I'm kinda weary of the stock market. Stocks are really damned expensive right now on a P/E basis. I also get the sense that many stocks are being buoyed artificially by the current prevalence of fund trading. Why gamble on a particular stock when you can automatically hedge your risk by selecting an ETF? All of that said, I do expect animal spirits to continue to drive the market upwards in the short term on pure speculation.
Personally, I'm letting my retirement funds ride in equities for now, but the rest of my investment money is tied up in real estate in Colorado. At least here I have good information on what's going on so that I can actually feel like I'm "investing."
Indeed never gamble on single stocks. Professional traders have too much of an advantage and even they usually don't beat the market. Anyway if you don't like stocks why don't you diversify into bonds? You can also invest in real estate funds if you're interested in that. Just investing in real estate in Colorado is pretty risky.
On May 12 2017 01:46 xDaunt wrote: It's interesting reading some of the past posts in this thread from six years ago.
Like I've said elsewhere, I'm kinda weary of the stock market. Stocks are really damned expensive right now on a P/E basis. I also get the sense that many stocks are being buoyed artificially by the current prevalence of fund trading. Why gamble on a particular stock when you can automatically hedge your risk by selecting an ETF? All of that said, I do expect animal spirits to continue to drive the market upwards in the short term on pure speculation.
Personally, I'm letting my retirement funds ride in equities for now, but the rest of my investment money is tied up in real estate in Colorado. At least here I have good information on what's going on so that I can actually feel like I'm "investing."
Indeed never gamble on single stocks. Professional traders have too much of an advantage and even they usually don't beat the market. Anyway if you don't like stocks why don't you diversify into bonds? You can also invest in real estate funds if you're interested in that. Just investing in real estate in Colorado is pretty risky.
Yeah, usually you'd want to diversify, but the Colorado real estate market is a really safe long term bet given the massive influx people relocating here, which is not going to stop any time soon, and the shortage of available housing.
Around 3 years ago, I tried my hand investing in individual stocks using extra money. Along the way, I've gained experience, knowledge, had some fun, heartburn, anxiety and elation.
And as of today, roughly market return. lulz
So for the young people just starting, just put your money in VTI and call it a day. And don't check often.
On May 11 2017 17:06 HalcyonRain wrote: While this topic was necro'd by a bot or whatever, is there any interest in continuing it?
SNAP's lack luster earnings? When will fundamentals finally catch up with TSLA, and when they do, will Einhorn still be short (and solvent)?
whats the point of snap once instagram implements those dog ears and rainbows
On May 12 2017 05:17 andrewlt wrote: Around 3 years ago, I tried my hand investing in individual stocks using extra money. Along the way, I've gained experience, knowledge, had some fun, heartburn, anxiety and elation.
And as of today, roughly market return. lulz
So for the young people just starting, just put your money in VTI and call it a day. And don't check often.
VTI is US listed stock only where as VT gives max diversification with about 56% NA stocks
On May 12 2017 02:16 KwarK wrote: For low to median incomes churning, indexing and making the optimal use of tax deferment to minimize tax obligations are the key. I consider myself reasonably knowledgeable on all three.
Why wouldn't above median incomes use ETFs? People who are making above 52K USD should definitely be continuing to use ETFs or passive index tracking mutual funds (for 0 transaction cost until they raise enough to buy the ETF)
On May 12 2017 02:45 Mysticesper wrote: I have one investment account and my retirement account, which is getting 10% + 3% employer match.
I squeaked by with 0 taxable long term cap gains because my taxable income was 100 less than the top threshold of the 15% bracket, which was nice.
Had your income been $101 higher it still would have only been the dollar over that would have been taxed at the higher marginal rate.
Don't fear the thresholds.
oh I know.
I just thought it was interesting, cause I added in all this extra money on the online tax software and my refund didn't go down, so I was curious as to why, since I didn't know that long term cap gains didn't get taxed at the lowest two brackets
On May 12 2017 05:17 andrewlt wrote: Around 3 years ago, I tried my hand investing in individual stocks using extra money. Along the way, I've gained experience, knowledge, had some fun, heartburn, anxiety and elation.
And as of today, roughly market return. lulz
So for the young people just starting, just put your money in VTI and call it a day. And don't check often.
VTI is US listed stock only where as VT gives max diversification with about 56% NA stocks
On May 12 2017 02:16 KwarK wrote: For low to median incomes churning, indexing and making the optimal use of tax deferment to minimize tax obligations are the key. I consider myself reasonably knowledgeable on all three.
Why wouldn't above median incomes use ETFs? People who are making above 52K USD should definitely be continuing to use ETFs or passive index tracking mutual funds (for 0 transaction cost until they raise enough to buy the ETF)
Who says people above median income shouldn't or don't use ETFs?
ETFs are generally one of the more tax efficient investments you can make, so they're what you want to use in you taxable accounts, which is probably the bigger account for high income earners.
I mean municipal bonds or something will be more tax efficient, but bonds are a pretty minor part of most portfolios.
From what I've read, if they are to be believed, so many things are pointing to a crash similar to that of 2008, largely because of the same type of people doing a very similar type of thing. Assuming this is true, what is the best way to protect your net value?
If it's not true, what are the reasons why we should not be worried?
I am well aware that doom and gloom sells copies and generates clicks, so I am skeptical but also don't want to get burned, but also don't understand or know enough to know how to avoid it
EPT
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I pay what I can pay, and my investment returns what it returns... And I buy whatever pos I can afford with the results ![[image loading]](http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/6184/moveavg.png)
