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I searched for some investing threads, but the oldest is over a year old, so I figured I would start up a new one. Not sure how much of TL actively invests, but I've started educating myself recently, and really have started getting into it. I've saved a lot of money over my young life due to having a decent job and just being really cheap, but just having it sit in a savings account making 1% interest was a little depressing, so I started doing a lot of research and just started actively investing. And as a relative newbie, I am interested in what my favorite community does in the ever changing world of the stock market.
My personal portfolio right now consists of quite a few different mutual funds, focusing on raw materials and energy mainly at the moment because it seems to have to most room for growth in the near future. I also have a couple of solid bond funds that while they might not have the most amazing growth potential, they are really safe, and they seem to be averaging around an 8% return long term. I "lucked out" with a Chinese based fund that I had researched and liked a lot and so far has returned me about 10% in just 3 weeks. I say lucked out because even though it was an intelligent decision on my part, any expert will tell you intelligence and research can mean almost nothing sometimes.
I also picked up a few nuclear related stocks like CCJ, DNN, and CBLI due to the Japanese situation and the current complete collapse of the nuclear stocks for literally no reason whatsoever. Nuclear isn't going anywhere in the near future. But I'm definitely looking long on those, as they still show no sign of immediate recovery. CBLI, however, is looking really hot.
I am looking at things like shorting and finding some good dividend stocks to pick up, but I am a little paranoid about investing heavily in some of the major companies like google because little crap like your CEO saying the wrong thing can tank stock like noones business. http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/page-tanks-google-stock-130713
In other news, now is a great time to pick up some google stock. :-p
I use Fidelity because they have a very user friendly site, are competitively priced, and have really good customer service, as well as very solid research tools.
So, TL, how is your investing going, and what do you look for?
So far, my advice for beginners.
1. Penny stocks, foreign exchange, and day trading do not exist. Seriously, don't even consider it.
2. Do your research. Before buying anything not a really safe fund/stock(read Bond/S&P500 based based funds, giant "too big to fail" companies like Verizon(VZ) or J&J) do a crap ton of research. No impulse buys unless its something you're already familiar with and it just took a dump for some silly reason. For example, my CBLI(Cleveland BioLabs) buy was a stock that I had been looking at for a while, and it took a huge unwarranted jump right after the Japan quake, which was followed by a giant drop when people realized they were being stupid. I took advantage of the sudden drastic drop to jump in....and 3 weeks later, I've sold with a 10% return. Win.
3. Balance. For every serious speculation buy, invest 3 times that in something safer.
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when i was 13 i almost won the etrade challenge. i came in 53rd (out of 120k~), having led it the entire time until the final day =(. age 13.
i am a year away from graduating law school. my first year out i will be as financially conservative as i am now, and i intend to live cheap and pay off all of my loans ASAP.
so, in two years, when i do not have high APR breathing down my neck, i can start investing and making my money again <3
that said i would look at partypoker (dunno the symbol). they are the only big site not hit by #blackfriday and were traditionally marginalized in that industry.... probably until now.
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I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that?
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I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
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On April 20 2011 03:31 d1v wrote:
I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that?
I might.....I don't really have that much at the moment, but some people still might be interested. Also keep in mind that I am by no means an expert, and am currently just a tad in the negative at the moment due to many of my nuclear based stocks dropping even further.....again, for no reason whatsoever. If I had balls I'd be buying even more, but since I'm still a relative newbie, I'm going to take it easy on the spec stocks. Plus my mutual funds are all sitting roughly even, all things considered....but then I only started actively using my own money about a month ago. But still i'm a little too heavy on spec side for my liking at the moment and if something really bad were to happen in Japan again, it might not recover for years.
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Bought and holding:
FDX @ 84.5 (now 91.6)
DE @ 55.5 (now 92)
BAC @ 16.5 (now 12.3)
GOOG @ 496 (now 524)
AMZN @ 126.5 (now 179)
Lost a little bit on VECO and X, but overall I'm up almost 20% for the year that I've held these. (bought these back in May '10).
Right now I don't really know what to do as the markets have been really choppy, and I think technical analysts are getting nervous. I think fundamentals are a little choppy too, this is really what you call a stock picker's market -- you can't just buy any stock and be like, oh it's a bull market everything's going up; in other words, simple market exposure at this point probably won't get you anywhere, you need to invest in the right companies. I kinda bought my stocks blindly as I only vaguely knew they were great companies, but I had stronger conviction that people were being too cautious about the market at the time early last year -- but now I can't really say that anymore, and I have to be smart about what I buy instead of just getting simple market exposure.
Thinking about dumping my BAC (what a piece of crap I hate this stock) and switching into C. I have to believe M&A, IPOs, and general banking business will come back over the next few years from the terrible down-turn in the past few years. Was so tempted to buy LPL yesterday when they reported great earnings but the stock didn't move -- so dumb, it's up 6% today 
Beyond that I don't really know what to do ... GOOG looks like a piece of crap, and my coworker who covers the stock told me they missed badly on margins (they reported last week) due to much higher than expected opex, which is really not something I want to hear. Yeah GOOG is probably a bit undervalued right now, but until this margin pressure lets up, I don't think GOOG will outperform. And margins may not come back for a few quarters =T
DE and AMZN have been a great run for me, and I'm thinking maybe now's the time to cash in my chips. But I'm kinda stuck... what do I put my money in then?
Sorry for the rant, but that's where I'm at ... my gut feeling tells me the market will go sideways and stay range bound for the next few quarters, and that I should rotate my stocks into fresh ideas, but nothing just pops up to me... I haven't heard any fresh ideas for a while from my coworkers either.
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On April 20 2011 03:42 Sm3agol wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2011 03:31 d1v wrote:
I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that? I might.....I don't really have that much at the moment, but some people still might be interested. Also keep in mind that I am by no means an expert, and am currently just a tad in the negative at the moment due to many of my nuclear based stocks dropping even further.....again, for no reason whatsoever. If I had balls I'd be buying even more, but since I'm still a relative newbie, I'm going to take it easy on the spec stocks. Plus my mutual funds are all sitting roughly even, all things considered....but then I only started actively using my own money about a month ago. But still i'm a little too heavy on spec side for my liking at the moment and if something really bad were to happen in Japan again, it might not recover for years.
How much are you investing right now? I'm kinda scared to throw real money at the stock market lol.
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I can recommend reading the intelligent investor by graham, and the black swan by taleb.
Some things i learned:
- Never trust specific investing advice, the adviser probably doesn't know more than you and likely have some additional agenda.
- Stay away from costs: no expensive funds, especially no performance fees; also commissions really add up, so don't try to trade/switch. Rebalancing is worth the fees, but there is some minimum amount of money you need to make it worthwile.
I'd recommend starting with a conservative portolio based on a few etfs - then find companies you might want to invest in, investigate them inside out and slowly add them 1 by 1 over the years, and keep following them. For us citizens (for example) it can be really worth while to also work out how the tax stuff works around investing.
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I feel you on stocks.....I wish I had invested all of my money a solid year ago, I could have literally doubled my money. If I were you, I would look at transferring your money into some solid funds for a while until the market gets figured out. The bullish trends seem to be over, and everything will probably revert back to research and luck in a little bit.
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I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
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Here in Brazil its pretty stable atm, research and luck are riding strong
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On April 20 2011 03:49 buhhy wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2011 03:42 Sm3agol wrote:On April 20 2011 03:31 d1v wrote:
I have been thinking about investing into a Palladium fund as they promise a quite attractive return. I thought about reading into investing as well, but I came to the conclusion that using the time for my studies will get me a better-paid job which by far outdoes the return of any investment (since I don't have like 20'000 USD to invest).
EDIT: Would love to see you making a blog where you keep us up to date on your investments. Any chance you might do that? I might.....I don't really have that much at the moment, but some people still might be interested. Also keep in mind that I am by no means an expert, and am currently just a tad in the negative at the moment due to many of my nuclear based stocks dropping even further.....again, for no reason whatsoever. If I had balls I'd be buying even more, but since I'm still a relative newbie, I'm going to take it easy on the spec stocks. Plus my mutual funds are all sitting roughly even, all things considered....but then I only started actively using my own money about a month ago. But still i'm a little too heavy on spec side for my liking at the moment and if something really bad were to happen in Japan again, it might not recover for years. How much are you investing right now? I'm kinda scared to throw real money at the stock market lol.
To get into it try some of the free trading programs that allow you to trade virtual money. That way you'll get a better feel for it, and get used to following stocks. But play it like you would real money. Practice doesn't make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.
+ Show Spoiler +And for the record I have around about 25k invested right now, which is all I'm going to be at for a while. I need some time for averages and statistics to kick in so I can get a better feel for things. I hope to put another 25k in by next year.
Although maybe that isn't a good thing to put out on the internet.....
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Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
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On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote:
Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
I don't need to do better than hedge-funds, i need to do better than a savings account (2% atm). That i can do quite comfortably.. sofar... I would also like to mention there is a difference between investing and speculating.
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On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote:
I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with.
If you're going to be investing with that kind of style, I highly recommending reading up on asset allocation strategy books too. (Just read one, they're all the same) Let me save you the time and money -- they all say, the best way to enter and play the market is to invest a fixed amount every month. In other words, if you've got a 401k plan, do it. (That's probably the only useful sentence in all of those books)
Let me give you a quick reason why AAPL is actually slightly undervalued. AAPL has $64/shr in cash on its balance sheet alone. Street estimates are at $23.10 for FY11 and $26.70 for FY12 (and Street estimates tend to be conservative on stocks they're bullish on). In other words, AAPL trading at today's price of $335 implies 11.7x FY11 EPS ex-cash. The S&P500 is currently trading at 14.1x forward earnings. So rather than saying AAPL is expensive, you have to either argue that AAPL will grow slower than the overall market (a very poor argument, look at iPhone and iPad sales growth), or that AAPL will see its iPhone margins get cut in half due to price competition from Android or other competitors (which is actually a legit concern in the sense that if this does happen, the stock will take a big hit...but that's a BIG if, very big, and likely very unlikely).
Mm...probably a good spot for me to say the usual disclaimer stuff i.e. I'm not recommending nor soliciting anyone to buy or sell any aforementioned securities, data is not intended as factual, investing in the market is risky, etc. etc.
On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote:
I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house.
Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
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On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote:
Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Because hedge fund and mutual fund managers have several constraints that prevent them from performing at their peak. It's why indexing works.
With billions under management, they can't buy micro/small stocks because there isn't enough volume.
They are under pressure from shareholders to perform well at every moment, so they can't act for the long-term
They can't take large risks with their money.
They are paid through fees, and maximizing fees does not mean maximizing overall returns.
Also, their fees eat up returns.
I personally don't believe in daytrading or growth stock speculation.
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On April 20 2011 03:58 Yttrasil wrote:
Just wondering, why do you think you guys will perform better than hedge funds and professional investors that has years of experience and more importantly amazing formulas and computerpower plus great information sources to use. While you guys are having it as almost a hobby and don't act in any rational way and constituting maybe at most 5% of the investors with no capital in comparison. How do you believe you can perform better than them, they will just take your money and some parts of what they make come from you guys.
Wish you luck but I'd love to hear a reasonable response, I'm studying economics have read stock books and these kinds of threads and I just don't get it. I know people love to gamble and this is the only thing I can compare it to, except that it sounds professional.
Edit: Buying property for long-long term and stocks as well in markets you really DO understand makes sense I'd say, but daytrading or changing stocks on whims, doesn't make sense to me.
Many hedge funds companies charge pretty ridiculous prices for rather marginal returns than what you would get yourself. Look at the 08/09 crashes...almost all those funds completely tanked with the rest of the market. People with their money in those funds did just as poorly as people with their own stocks.
Plus, any manager will tell you.......the stock market is ridiculously unpredictable. All the analysis in the world won't keep you from completely lucking out and having 90% of your investment go down the drain due to random and almost completely unrelated problems.
I'll take the current nuclear situation as a great example. Nuclear power isn't going anywhere........noone is cancelling currently-under-construction plants, supply isn't going down, and basically nothing practical has changed, and yet the stocks have completely tanked. It's just too random to be accurately predicted by anything. That is why people do it themselves. With a bit of luck you can do far better than the "professionals", and if you do it wisely, with just about the same amount of risk.
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hello im from teamliquid and i've made x% since 200x and thats better than 95% of all mutual/hedge fund managers but here i am sharing my insights with you. i dunno why those other guys with tons of resources and years of experience don't invest like me lolol.
but seriously, unless someone can you show an audited broker report with actual returns don't listen to anyone ever tell you 'ive made this much' or 'ive returned this'. thats the best thing with these magnificent market tales, its as simple as 'prove it'.
enormous capital is dumped into beating a market benchmark or index. the kid from teamliquid who forgets to bring a pencil to class is who you're going get advice from?
by the way this isn't a shot at the teamliquid community. supplement tl with the cess pool elitetrader. point is still illustrated.
john stockton
edit: theres plenty of hedge funds who beat the market. don't be a naive.
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On April 20 2011 04:06 happyft wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2011 03:33 buhhy wrote:
I'm just getting into investing as well. Been reading books lately mainly, like the Ben Graham classics and the book by Swenson and Bogle.
I don't have much money, only a few grand, so I don't plan on doing anything fancy yet. Also, brokers in Canada charge ridiculous rates, so I plan on maybe picking up an index ETF, and some bonds for the time being.
Personally, I don't find many of the top tech stocks very appealing (AAPL, GOOG, NVDA), because they seem really speculative with high P/E and no dividend. Looking at the depressed nuclear stocks could really pay off though, but I don't have enough money to speculate with. Show nested quote +On April 20 2011 03:53 LaSt)ChAnCe wrote:
I made about $10,000 riding the waves day trading ATVI stock last year. Sold all of my shares and stepping out of the game for a while so that I can get a build credit/get a house. Wow. On how much capital? And were you doing true day trading, or what was your average holding time period? And how long have you been following ATVI that you were able to day trade it? And on what basis did you trade? (fundamentals, technicals, weird indicator stuff, quant models?)
started with about $5,000 but increased capital both off of profits and from using more money from outside of the market (total profit was $10,000 but towards the end I was trading about $20,000)
maybe not technically day trading, i'd sometimes hold on to it for as long as a week or two - i started trading (small amounts) of ATVI in '08, but never really went deep until '10
traded based on the market, what i knew about release dates (little), and whim (obviously not a good answer, but it's the truth)
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On April 20 2011 04:11 Steveh wrote:
hello im from teamliquid and i've made x% since 200x and thats better than 95% of all mutual/hedge fund managers but here i am sharing my insights with you. i dunno why those other guys with tons of resources and years of experience don't invest like me lolol.
but seriously, unless someone can you show an audited broker report with actual returns don't listen to anyone ever tell you 'ive made this much' or 'ive returned this'. thats the best thing with these magnificent market tales, its as simple as 'prove it'.
enormous capital is dumped into beating a market benchmark or index. the kid from teamliquid who forgets to bring a pencil to class is who you're going get advice from?
by the way this isn't a shot at the teamliquid community. supplement tl with the cess pool elitetrader. point is still illustrated.
john stockton
edit: theres plenty of hedge funds who beat the market. don't be a naive.
Lucking into the ones that do is just as hard as actually investing wisely yourself.
Also, crap like this.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-sec-warns-hedge-funds-if-you-beat-the-market-by-3-we-are-looking-into-you-2011-3
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EPT
