On July 29 2013 03:28 Dazed_Spy wrote: I doubt a democratic election is forthcoming in Syria, even if Assad wins. But lets be honest here, a huge portion of the people want an islamist state, and a huge portion of the people want an authoritarian state of possibly a non islamist bent---democracy isnt really going to help things, at all. It really shouldnt be a goal for anyone here. A stable evolutionary regime is what we should want, for the people of Syria, because it takes decades or even centuries for gradual cultural change, to where liberty and *real* democracy is actually attainable.
According to surveys the majority of Syrian population wants Assad to stay as their president right now.
He stands for peace, unity and a secular Syria. I think that's still the best solution, as the other option would be a Muslim Brotherhood-led government similar to the one that just failed in Egypt.
I'm not sure how reliable polls can be in this situation, and given theres a civil war going on obviously Assad fails on the 'unity' front. But at least he symbolizes continuity and a kind of soft authoritarianism. If his regime survives, I do think it can slowly, even if unintentionally, foster a more western esque culture where eventually a genuine democratic government can arise. But your right, the alternative is obviously theocratic despotism.
The first step to ending this mess is us not demanding Assad step down as a precondition for a settlement.
We are exactly like Iran, The Muslim Brotherhood, Russia etc. it's our proxy war too only we don't talk about ourselves in those terms.
We select the despotic regimes that we feel we have a comfortable level of control over and support them, like Egypt or Bahrain, we take any opportunity presented to overthrow regimes over which we feel have little control like Syria or Libya.
This is fine, or at least, this is the way of the world.
What winds me the fuck up is the holier than thou crap we spoon-scrape into our own mouths. Open a paper, turn on the a t.v. news station. Their actions our terrible, ours regrettable. They block peace, we support democracy. They arm tyrants, we seek "stability".
The really worrying thing about this current shit sandwich is how chaotic and complex it's getting. There are so many players with so many agendas, that the possibility of gross miscalculation and a wider conflict is growing. And it will keep growing the longer it goes on.
We can seek peace, we should seek peace, but we won't.
You forgot to mention how we conveniently come up with new classifications to justify our holier-than-thou actions, so that any comparison between us good guys and them bad guys is immediately invalid. We want to take away the basic rights of soldiers at war? Well, they're not soldiers, they're "illegal combatants", so they don't have any rights. We want to justify how our invasions are good, but other countries' invasions are bad? Well, they (like Russia in 2008) invade "sovereign countries" while we, of course, don't. So we can't even be compared to everyone else. Granted, this was more a Bush thing, but it's kind of stuck, so I'm mentioning it anyway.
I don't mean to derail the thread by rehashing old discussions, but I just thought this could be added to the rant
I really wonder in what cases actual humanitarian intervention is effective. I mean, most conflicts nowadays are within a state instead of between states which makes picking a side (like against the agressor, which sides are there even? How do they relate?) almost impossible since they're wound up in struggles lasting a really long time with no clear beginning. Anyone here studies international law? :S
On August 04 2013 17:11 gneGne wrote: I really wonder in what cases actual humanitarian intervention is effective. I mean, most conflicts nowadays are within a state instead of between states which makes picking a side (like against the agressor, which sides are there even? How do they relate?) almost impossible since they're wound up in struggles lasting a really long time with no clear beginning. Anyone here studies international law? :S
International law would be great. Unfortunately it becomes a tool for perusing agendas when the most powerful actors, those whose action it is in fact most important to constrain, simply ignore it when it suits them.
Yea, sorry for the rant. Sometimes I feel like the tide propaganda can only be expelled by writing out narratives that have at least a basic degree of internal consistency and explanatory power. Sometimes I do it on TL. Hope I didn't get any on you.
Syrian rebels have captured an ammunition depot north of Damascus from government forces, activists said, seizing a hoard of anti-tank missiles and rockets which could strengthen their firepower after a string of defeats.
Video footage of the raid published on Saturday showed delighted rebel fighters carrying out boxes of weapons from the arms cache in Denha, near the town of Yabroud, following an overnight attack.
Still largely outgunned by Assad's forces, who have gained ground around the capital Damascus and Syria's third largest city Homs, the rebels have sought arms to tip the balance of power in the two-year conflict that has killed at least 100,000.
Saturday's raid yielded French-made Milan anti-tank missiles, Russian Konkurs missiles and Grad rockets, according to video footage which showed the rebels carrying off their haul through the dark corridors of the captured complex.
"Our return to Qusayr just got closer," shouted one fighter, referring to the former rebel stronghold and border town which was captured two months ago by Assad forces backed by the Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Many people suspect that they just pretend they seized a weapon depot because they got a new shipment of foreign weapons. Here is a video of the "seized" weapons.
As you can see, most of those weapons look pretty new. It is highly unlikely that Syria would buy a big number of anti tank weapons during a civil war, as they desperately need that money for more important things. Additionally it is near impossible to conquer that many weapons. Attacking the depot, beating the guards, packing that much stuff into trucks and then driving away probably takes several hours, which means that the SAA could have easily used air attacks or artillery to destroy the weapons while they are being seized. In addition to that it is unlikely that an army would keep that many weapons of this kind at one place, as a country usually has only several hundreds of those.
I can't assure you that this is faked, but the rebels have certainly faked things several times before (like those videos where they act like they are attacking something while in fact they are just running and shooting around).
I don't think so, as Syria has been allied to Russia and kinda opposed to the West for a long time.
Additionally it would be a huge scandal if the Syrian forces were using any European weapons, as according to our media they are a bunch of mass murderers oppressing protesters (sadly, most people think like that). German government is already getting pressured for allowing weapon exports to Saudi-Arabia, so I am pretty sure they would never ever allow shipments to the Syrian government.
There's the loopholes right there: Sell to the Saudi's, who are funding and arming the moderate rebels, and in turn they send the weaponry to said forces.
Syria has bought weapons from European companies. The Syrian Army for one had some of its T-72 tanks upgraded by an Italian company, exact upgrades are unknown (I think) but they included the TURMS-T fire control system. http://spioenkop.blogspot.com/2013/02/syrian-turms-t-equipped-t-72s.html
The Syrian Airforce also operates French Gazelle attack helicopters; they are basically tank killers, small recon choppers that were upgraded/adapted to fire anti tank missiles. Bought HOT, SS.11 and MILAN missiles from Western European companies.
They have bought stuff from Poland/Czechoslovakia too if that counts as Europe.
MILAN are known to be in the Syrian Army's hands, it isn't implausible that the SAA lost a bunch of them. They aren't exactly the smartest, initiative filled or most active military in the world.
I mean, hell, check out Liwa al-Islam's looted tanks/APCs LOL -
Residents of Damascus and Syrian oppposition activists say that there has been shelling near the home of President Bashar al-Assad as well as an attempt to target his convoy.
Residents of the Malki district, where Assad works and lives, have confirmed to Al Jazeera that they heard shells hitting the area. Security forces closed off roads leading to Malki and to the Ummayad mosque on Thursday.
Syrian state television showed footage of Assad praying at a Damascus mosque.
Muslims across the world are celebrating Eid al-Fitr marking the end of Ramadan.
AMMAN/DOHA, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has offered Russia economic incentives including a major arms deal and a pledge not to challenge Russian gas sales if Moscow scales back support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Middle East sources and Western diplomats said on Wednesday.
The proposed deal between two of the leading power brokers in Syria's devastating civil war was set out by Saudi intelligence chief Prince Bandar bin Sultan at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow last week, they said.
Russia has supported Assad with arms and diplomatic cover throughout the war and any change in Moscow's stance would remove a major obstacle to action on Syria by the United Nations Security Council.
Syrian opposition sources close to Saudi Arabia said Prince Bandar offered to buy up to $15 billion of Russian weapons as well as ensuring that Gulf gas would not threaten Russia's position as a main gas supplier to Europe.
On July 29 2013 03:28 Dazed_Spy wrote: I doubt a democratic election is forthcoming in Syria, even if Assad wins. But lets be honest here, a huge portion of the people want an islamist state, and a huge portion of the people want an authoritarian state of possibly a non islamist bent---democracy isnt really going to help things, at all. It really shouldnt be a goal for anyone here. A stable evolutionary regime is what we should want, for the people of Syria, because it takes decades or even centuries for gradual cultural change, to where liberty and *real* democracy is actually attainable.
this is actually pretty damn spot on
just imagine the gall of the people over there, wanting an Islamic state, it should be labeled as a crime against humanity but these days you can get away with anything as long as you do it in the name of religion.
On August 05 2013 08:47 imperator-xy wrote: I don't think so, as Syria has been allied to Russia and kinda opposed to the West for a long time.
Additionally it would be a huge scandal if the Syrian forces were using any European weapons, as according to our media they are a bunch of mass murderers oppressing protesters (sadly, most people think like that). German government is already getting pressured for allowing weapon exports to Saudi-Arabia, so I am pretty sure they would never ever allow shipments to the Syrian government.
International arms dealing has never been afraid of political scandals. There are countless examples of European (and the US) nations selling arms to despotic regimes either directly or indirectly through proxies like Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt and others. Most cases only become known well after political scandal is no longer a threat because of the secretive nature of the deals along with measures to distance governments from the deals.
Syrian rebel general: Assad's convoy targeted en route to Eid prayer, but leader not injured - @AlArabiya_Eng
Syrian TV shows footage of President Assad praying at Damascus mosque following reports of attack on his motorcade - @Reuters
Video purports to show smoke rising from the Malki district of Damascus, Syria; activists reported shelling near Assad's home, convoy - EyeDamascus on YouTube via @AJELive
Rockets and mortar bombs hit the Damascus neighbourhood of Syrian President Bashar Assad, as rebels demonstrated their ability to strike one of the most secure areas of the capital.
At least two rebel brigades on Thursday claimed to have hit the presidential motorcade as it was ferrying the president to morning prayers in the heavily guarded Malki district, where the president lives and works.
A Syrian television station linked to the regime said two mortar shells landed in Malki, injuring two guards - but the government was adamant the shells did not hit the presidential convoy. Assad was later shown on state media leading prayers at Anas bin Malik mosque in the neighbourhood.
A spokesman for the rebel group Liwa al-Islam, one of two that said they had carried out the attack, told Al Jazeera he was sure they had hit the convoy with rockets.
"We have monitors in the area who confirm that the attack hit some of the president's guards," he said. "It also hit checkpoints in the area. It was at 7:20 in the morning."
Air strikes by the Syrian military have killed at least 30 people in the northwestern province of Latakia overnight, and the northern city of Raqa, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The attacks are seen as an effort by President Bashar al-Assad to prevent armed rebels fighting him from advancing on communities in the stronghold region of his Alawite sect.
"The toll in several air strikes on the town of Salma in Jabal Akrad rose to at least 20 people," Rami Abdel Rahman, the London-based watchdog group's director, told AFP news agency early on Saturday.
He said that 10 of those killed were believed to be civilians, although many of the bodies were so badly disfigured that it was not immediately possible to identify them.
At least six of those killed were Syrian rebel fighters, while four were foreign volunteers, he said.
In recent days, rebel forces have captured a number of villages in Jabal Akrad, a mountainous district in the north of Latakia.
Assad's army has hit back, prompting fierce fighting that has left dozens dead on both sides, according to the Syrian Observatory.
Assad has deployed extra forces in the region and the air raids reflected an urgent priority to protect the main region of his Alawite sect, who account for 12 percent of Syria's 21 million people.
The Syrian Observatory also said that government troops stormed a village overnight, killing 12 people in Aleppo province.
In other violent incidents, fierce fighting erupted during the night between government troops and rebels in the Barzeh neighbourhood of Damascus, the group said, adding that the army shelled both Barzeh and the Jubar districts of the Syrian capital.
Rebels and Syrian government forces have clashed in the country's Idlib province, as fighting intensified in northern areas of the country.
Government jets on Sunday pounded the town of Binesh in Idlib, while rebels shelled a government checkpoint in Saida, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
Also on Sunday, a father and his three children were killed in Raqa province when government planes bombed their home, the observatory said.
The attacks follow days of fighting in Latakia province, which borders Idlib, with concerns growing about the country disintergrating along sectarian lines.
The coastal Latakia province is the stronghold of President Bashar al-Assad's Alawite minority and has remained relatively immune to violence. However, rebel groups have captured about 10 Alawite villages in the mountainous Jabal al-Akrad area of the province.
Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr, reporting from Antakya in neighbouring Turkey, said the rebels now controlled areas in Latakia's countryside. However, they have not yet been able to advance to the coast.
The government has hit back, sparking fierce fighting that has left dozens dead on both sides, according to the observatory.
On Saturday, at least 20 people were killed in several government air strikes on the Sunni rebel-held town of Salma in the Jabal al-Akrad area, it said.
At least six of those killed were Syrian rebels, while four were foreigners, said Rami Abdel Rahman, who heads the observatory.
She said that while the government maintained the upper hand, losing Latakia would be a symbolic blow.
Thanks for all the news, {CC}StealthBlue! I just wanted to break off your triple post by saying that I find them really useful, even though there's no discussion about them. The media seems to have tired of Syria a long time ago, so I actually use this thread as my main source of info about what's actually happening there
EPT
