I'll just put this in bold so you know I'm talking about the offensive starting really soon in Mosul
So in the coming hours expect news regarding the start of a large scale offensive against ISIS in the Iraqi city of Mosul. Between 34 and 42 thousand troops, hundreds of different pieces of equipment (tanks, armored combat vehicles), 130 artillery guns as well as several dozen bomber aircraft and attack drones will be engaging the 8-11 thousand ISIS fighters that are defending the city and surrounding villages. Participating in the offensive, besides the Iraqi army and security forces, are the Kurdish Peshmerga, Iraqi shiite milita, as well as troops from the US, Turkey and France. Of course other members of the coalition will also be providing air support.
The obvious goal is to release Mosul before the end of autumn and deal a heavy blow to the state structure of ISIS, the US obviously wanting a victory in time for election season, but looking at Fallujah, Manbij and Ramadi this offencive wll probably take between 2-3 months, if not more. Naturally a comparison with Aleppo can not be avoided as basically the same types of storming operations are taking place.
A general look at the front as it stands now, open in a new tab to see details
The general plan (probably) So the attack will develop on three sides, to the north and east of the ring around Mosul are the Peshmerga. From the south the Iraqi military, pro-Iranian groups as well as the American-lead coalition. And in the northwest the Turks.
So the first step for America and friends is to try to disrupt ISIS logistics within Mosul, hitting key supply routes, bridges ect. to disrupt the flow between Mosul and the rest of ISIS territory in Iraq.
After that they will strike blows against ISIS strongpoints (as well as warehouses ect.) in the city perimeter to ensure the easiest time possible for advancing forces. Several days of dropping leaflets promising residence a speedy release from ISIS, and, at least the Pentagon hopes it will inspire people to rise up against ISIS in the city and speed up their downfall. A very large number of police officers are already being trained to fight underground terrorism when the city finally falls.
At the end of the day ISIS is ready to defend the city at all costs and to fight till the end and make the attackers pay a heavy price. They have also extensively been preparing for the upcoming battle, pulling additional forces into Mosul, mining areas outside and inside the city. The city itself is quite well prepared, dense residential and industrial buildings reduce the effectiveness of artillery and airstrikes while an extensive underground tunnel network and large stockpiles of ammunition will keep them supplied for quite some time.
The loyalty of the population is going to be a problem for assaulting forces too. The general population supports public executions and the propaganda campaign inside the city can be compared to the atmosphere inside 1945 Berlin, which means ISIS still has considerable support within the civilian population. With the backdrop of the offensive civilians will be used extensively for the propaganda effort, weather its mass executions to keep them in check or them dieing as 'collateral damage' in air strikes.
edit: According to this article there are still 600,000 civilians left in Mosul.
Iraqi government forces, with air and ground support from the U.S.-led coalition, launched an offensive on Monday to drive Islamic State from the northern city of Mosul, the militants' last major stronghold in the country.
Helicopters released flares overhead and explosions could be heard on the city's eastern front, where Kurdish fighters moved forward to take outlying villages, a Reuters correspondent said.
The United States predicted Islamic State would suffer "a lasting defeat" as Iraqi forces mounted their biggest operation since the U.S. withdrew its own troops in 2011.
Some 30,000 Iraqi soliders, Kurdish Peshmerga militia and Sunni tribal fighters were expected to take part in the offensive to drive an estimated 4,000 to 8,000 Islamic State militants from Mosul, a city of 1.5 million people.
"I announce today the start of the heroic operations to free you from the terror and the oppression of Daesh," Prime Minister Haider Abadi said in a speech on state TV, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.
"We will meet soon on the ground of Mosul to celebrate liberation and your salvation," he said, surrounded by the armed forces' top commanders.
Qatar-based al-Jazeera television aired video of what it said was a bombardment of Mosul that started after Abadi's speech, showing rockets and bursts of tracer bullets across the night sky and loud sounds of gunfire.
"This operation to regain control of Iraq's second-largest city will likely continue for weeks, possibly longer," said the commander of the coalition, U.S. Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend, in a statement.
The Mosul offensive is one of the biggest military operations in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
"This is a decisive moment in the campaign to deliver ISIL a lasting defeat," U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in a statement, using an acronym for Islamic State.
"We are confident our Iraqi partners will prevail against our common enemy and free Mosul and the rest of Iraq from ISIL's hatred and brutality." [nL1N1CN01O]
In 2014, Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed from Mosul's Grand Mosque a "caliphate" in Iraq and neighbouring Syria.
If Mosul falls, Raqqa in Syria will be Islamic State's last city stronghold.
www.reuters.com More interesting than the battle itself, since I think it's pretty clear that IS will lose, is what happens afterwards. Beating IS doesn't magically heal the sectarian divide in Iraq.
On October 17 2016 19:27 Wrath wrote: No matter who wins, the major loser will be the Sunni population. Just like what happened in the previous Iraqi attacks.
Fairly certain that the population of Mosul are already losing. Yes, the sectarian oppression is pretty horrific, but are you trying to argue it is worse than ISIS' oppression for the average inhabitant of Mosul?
On October 17 2016 19:27 Wrath wrote: No matter who wins, the major loser will be the Sunni population. Just like what happened in the previous Iraqi attacks.
Fairly certain that the population of Mosul are already losing. Yes, the sectarian oppression is pretty horrific, but are you trying to argue it is worse than ISIS' oppression for the average inhabitant of Mosul?
It is going to be much more worse for them. ISIS oppression won't be a thing compared to what they will taste from the Iraqi milita mainly the shias. Here is an example:
Title translation: "Qais al-Khazali: Battle of Mosul will be revenge against the killers of Hussein because these grandchildren are of those grandparents".
Like they did in Fallujah and other cities they freed from ISIS, the Sunni population will suffer much more:
Translation: "Displaced people from Fallujah, Iraq forced to chant «we are women» under beatings".
The Iraqi government itself is nothing but an Iranian toy and working to change the demography of land by taking on the Sunni population.
Here is Faisal Alqasem (Al Jazeera "opposite direction" program Presenter) says over Facebook:
"What will be left of Sunni population in Iraq after the liberation of Mousl from ISIS and the Sunni population? And before that the liberation of Fallujah from ISIS and Fallujah's people? Were ISIS in Iraq and Rebels in Syria nothing more than tools for U.S. and Iran to give Iran more dominance over Syria and Iraq using the claim of fighting terrorism?"
Behnam Abboush won't feel any safer if Iraqi forces drive Islamic State out of their stronghold of Mosul. That's why he and 300 other Assyrian Christians in the paramilitary force under his command are taking matters into their own hands.
Abboush says some members of his community, one of Iraq's many religious and ethnic minorities, were abandoned to their fate when the jihadists swept through northern Iraq two years ago.
Now his fighters are determined to protect Christian towns and villages in the Mosul region without relying on anyone else, while Iraqi government troops and other forces launch their offensive to regain the city nearby.
Ancient minorities have always been an integral part of Iraq's complex social fabric. Their attitudes toward the government in Baghdad and their re-assimilation into society after the upheaval caused by Islamic State will test Iraqi leaders' pledges to deliver stability after the Mosul campaign.
The Shi'ite-led government has promised that the assault, which started in the early hours of Monday, will improve security and unite a nation that has been in turmoil since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003.
But Abboush's experiences illustrate why so many of the minorities - which range from the Christians and Yazidis to Turkmens and the Shabak people - have so little faith in the regional and central governments.
He recalls the night of Aug. 6, 2014, about two months after the fall of Mosul, when he said Kurdish forces stationed in the Christian town of Karakosh suddenly announced they were fleeing.
Many of the Karakosh's 55,000 people managed to escape before the militants arrived a few hours later, but Abboush said the abrupt departure of the peshmerga troops controlled by the Kurdish regional government showed how communities have to defend themselves.
"They said to us 'we will protect you'. At half past ten in the evening they said 'we will go'. It was very difficult, especially for the women and children," Abboush, an engineer and former air defense officer under Saddam Hussein, said at his training base in the town of Alqosh, 50 km (30 miles) from Mosul.
He is now the general of an Assyrian force that he says received only half the amount of weapons it needs from authorities and relies heavily on donations from Iraqi Christians living abroad.
"If there was a strong central government we would need nothing. If you want to solve the problem, we must have a protection force," Abboush, an intense, white-haired man, said shortly before joining his officers for a lunch of eggplant, stew and rice.
Abboush prepares his men at an obstacle course on a tiny mountain training ground, only about 13 km from Islamic State fighters. Their mission is to reassure local people it is safe to return to their homes in areas cleared of the militants.
Can someone please give me some real evidence on who actually attacked the humanitarian convoy a few weeks ago, not this retarded game that is being played between the US and Russia without presenting evidence. This is really frustrating.
I can't imagine anyone but actual terrorists intentionally hitting people who are trying to bring medical aid to a warn-torn city. The Americans said Russia did it and that they knew what they were doing. I cannot believe that is the case. They are not stupid enough to intentionally piss off the whole international community like that, are they? If the Russians did it, I have to believe it was an accident, just as much as that hospital in Afghanistan that the Americans bombed was an accident. It really feels like the US is intentionally trying to raise tensions with this kind of talk.
Also, why do I get the feeling that Syria is going to be in for a hell of a couple of months with all the ISIS fighters being driven west by the offensive in Mosul? I don't think that this is being done on purpose either, like what's been going around in the news in the Middle East, but there is no doubt in my mind that there is an American cable or an e-mail somewhere regarding this situation that contains the word "convenient". If I wanted to take it a step further, I could suggest the more malevolent amongst the American politicians/generals are thinking "Let the Russians deal with the terrorists in Syria and then we can blame them for killing civilians."
mere mortals do not have access to teh evidence even if such evidence would exist; this perpetual state of confusion is what keeps the wars going. the mortals are here, on this Earth, to die like retards because one way or the other, they have to believe in something.
On October 22 2016 18:07 a_flayer wrote: I can't imagine anyone but actual terrorists intentionally hitting people who are trying to bring medical aid to a warn-torn city. The Americans said Russia did it and that they knew what they were doing. I cannot believe that is the case. They are not stupid enough to intentionally piss off the whole international community like that, are they? If the Russians did it, I have to believe it was an accident, just as much as that hospital in Afghanistan that the Americans bombed was an accident.
Hospitals being targeted by bunker busters in Aleppo, cluster bombs are being dropped on civilians and we're supposed to accept scores of bombings as "accidents" or treat it the same as the US bombing one hospital? Russian and Syrian forces have shown they are willing to carry out crimes against humanity already, why is the bombing of an aid convoy a step too far?
They are not stupid enough to intentionally piss off the whole international community like that, are they?
Tell that to Georgia, Ukraine, Alexander Litvinenko and so on.
Well, this is the same Russia that said it wasn't invading Ukraine. Them uniformed soldiers with the patches missing and tracked vehicles with the license plates missing are totally not theirs. Same Russia that hacked into the Democrats party in USA. There probably isn't much more Russia can do to piss off the international community. it's not like outright killing people isn't part of what Russia does nowadays. And the international community has done not that much. Some sanctions, some lowering of Russian living standards. But that doesn't affect the Kremlin.The only powerful countries that don't care which are left, are China, which is happy that Russia is diverting attention from itself, and India who is slowly, but surely, weaning itself off its reliance on Russia military gear.
On October 23 2016 03:33 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Well, this is the same Russia that said it wasn't invading Ukraine. Them uniformed soldiers with the patches missing and tracked vehicles with the license plates missing are totally not theirs. Same Russia that hacked into the Democrats party in USA. There probably isn't much more Russia can do to piss off the international community. it's not like outright killing people isn't part of what Russia does nowadays. And the international community has done not that much. Some sanctions, some lowering of Russian living standards. But that doesn't affect the Kremlin.The only powerful countries that don't care which are left, are China, which is happy that Russia is diverting attention from itself, and India who is slowly, but surely, weaning itself off its reliance on Russia military gear.
Its really going to be war then of some sort eh? Take all of that, then add the stand-off in Syria, mix in a little bit of Iran when they start their nuclear program again in, what? 2 years? Good times.
On October 23 2016 03:33 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Well, this is the same Russia that said it wasn't invading Ukraine. Them uniformed soldiers with the patches missing and tracked vehicles with the license plates missing are totally not theirs. Same Russia that hacked into the Democrats party in USA. There probably isn't much more Russia can do to piss off the international community. it's not like outright killing people isn't part of what Russia does nowadays. And the international community has done not that much. Some sanctions, some lowering of Russian living standards. But that doesn't affect the Kremlin.The only powerful countries that don't care which are left, are China, which is happy that Russia is diverting attention from itself, and India who is slowly, but surely, weaning itself off its reliance on Russia military gear.
Its really going to be war then of some sort eh?
What do you think has been going on since Russia entered the Syria arena?
If your talking about something more then the usual proxy war between the West and Russia then no, there isn't going to be a war because neither side is stupid enough to let it come to that. Relations will probably get worse before they get better tho but bad relations doesn't mean that its going to be a war.
Edit: What are you talking about now? Iran restarting its nuclear program? Did you miss the part of the Iran deal that dealt with them restarting? No, its not going to happen because the only outcome is Iran in flames and again, they are not that stupid.
On October 23 2016 03:33 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Well, this is the same Russia that said it wasn't invading Ukraine. Them uniformed soldiers with the patches missing and tracked vehicles with the license plates missing are totally not theirs. Same Russia that hacked into the Democrats party in USA. There probably isn't much more Russia can do to piss off the international community. it's not like outright killing people isn't part of what Russia does nowadays. And the international community has done not that much. Some sanctions, some lowering of Russian living standards. But that doesn't affect the Kremlin.The only powerful countries that don't care which are left, are China, which is happy that Russia is diverting attention from itself, and India who is slowly, but surely, weaning itself off its reliance on Russia military gear.
Its really going to be war then of some sort eh? Take all of that, then add the stand-off in Syria, mix in a little bit of Iran when they start their nuclear program again in, what? 2 years? Good times.
I'm not quite sure what you are getting at here. It can't possibly be missed that there has been a war in Syria for years. Perhaps you are mixing something up from another thread ?
On October 23 2016 03:33 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Well, this is the same Russia that said it wasn't invading Ukraine. Them uniformed soldiers with the patches missing and tracked vehicles with the license plates missing are totally not theirs. Same Russia that hacked into the Democrats party in USA. There probably isn't much more Russia can do to piss off the international community. it's not like outright killing people isn't part of what Russia does nowadays. And the international community has done not that much. Some sanctions, some lowering of Russian living standards. But that doesn't affect the Kremlin.The only powerful countries that don't care which are left, are China, which is happy that Russia is diverting attention from itself, and India who is slowly, but surely, weaning itself off its reliance on Russia military gear.
Its really going to be war then of some sort eh?
What do you think has been going on since Russia entered the Syria arena?
If your talking about something more then the usual proxy war between the West and Russia then no, there isn't going to be a war because neither side is stupid enough to let it come to that. Relations will probably get worse before they get better tho but bad relations doesn't mean that its going to be a war.
Edit: What are you talking about now? Iran restarting its nuclear program? Did you miss the part of the Iran deal that dealt with them restarting? No, its not going to happen because the only outcome is Iran in flames and again, they are not that stupid.
Yeah, although if you wanna stop Russia in Syria or anywhere else where they are active -- that's the attitude I got from Dangermousecatdog at least -- you basically have to commit to going to war with them. Whether the war would actually be executed is another matter, but you have to show that you are willing to do that. Iran doesn't really even matter in this, I was just trying to think of another conflict factor between the east and west in the region related to this topic lol. They matter in the equalization factor against the Saudis maybe, I guess. I don't know where all the smaller countries fall if it is going to come down to that.
We'll see how it all goes down in Syria once ISIL has been driven out of Iraq. Is there much concern about driving the terrorists into Syria? Like, I haven't seen many numbers regarding dead ISIL people. What if they're all just going to gather in Syria, and, like form the "opposition" in Syria's new government or something. There are so many people part of that nightmare down there, there's no way that attitude of theirs doesn't stick around in some form. Like, some of them pose as civilians (at the end of the video) to get out. Most of them I would imagine will flee east.
But at least there's little chance that the displaced civilians of Mosul would flee all the way to Europe, right? (not worried about ISIL people but, you know, more refugees :-/)
On October 23 2016 03:33 Dangermousecatdog wrote: Well, this is the same Russia that said it wasn't invading Ukraine. Them uniformed soldiers with the patches missing and tracked vehicles with the license plates missing are totally not theirs. Same Russia that hacked into the Democrats party in USA. There probably isn't much more Russia can do to piss off the international community. it's not like outright killing people isn't part of what Russia does nowadays. And the international community has done not that much. Some sanctions, some lowering of Russian living standards. But that doesn't affect the Kremlin.The only powerful countries that don't care which are left, are China, which is happy that Russia is diverting attention from itself, and India who is slowly, but surely, weaning itself off its reliance on Russia military gear.
Its really going to be war then of some sort eh? Take all of that, then add the stand-off in Syria, mix in a little bit of Iran when they start their nuclear program again in, what? 2 years? Good times.
I'm not quite sure what you are getting at here. It can't possibly be missed that there has been a war in Syria for years. Perhaps you are mixing something up from another thread ?
Yeah, not war with Russia, but that's what you have to do if you want to stop them, right? And didn't India buy a whole lot of those S-300s in like 2013? Or has the weening off started more recent than that?
I'd been told that child labour was endemic in Turkey. But I wasn't prepared for the reality of it. Or the scale of it. One basement workshop was almost entirely staffed with children, many of whom couldn't have been more than seven or eight years old, the very picture of Dickensian misery.
I was in Istanbul investigating allegations that Syrian refugees and children are being exploited by the garment industry. And specifically that many are working on clothes destined for our High Street.
This undercover investigation was unusually tricky. Secret filming is illegal in Turkey and we were halfway through our investigation when a state of emergency was declared in the country. We were routinely stopped and questioned by police. Our secret filming equipment had to be kept out of sight.
And yet finding Syrian refugees and children making branded clothes for the UK market was relatively straightforward.
Only a tiny percentage of the estimated 3 million Syrians who have sought refuge in Turkey have the necessary work permits. To survive, they have to work illegally, without any rights, and for low wages. A made-to-measure workforce for the garment industry, and a reminder that one person's plight is often another's opportunity.
I was able to see how this exploitation works for myself. It was just before 08:00. A group of people had gathered on a street corner on the outskirts of Istanbul, all desperate for a day's work.
We filmed through the blacked-out windows of our van a dozen yards away as a middleman picked this day's workforce, selecting them one by one. Those who were chosen boarded a bus to take them to a factory.
We know now that up to seven of the workers on board were Syrian refugees. One was just fifteen. Another, we'll call him Omar, was our source.
We followed behind until the bus stopped outside a factory in an industrial zone a few miles away. This factory was known to us. We'd been told it made clothes for some of the world's leading brands.
Later that evening, Omar met up with me. He showed me the labels from the clothes he'd been working on, that day. I recognised them instantly. So would you. The brand could hardly be better-known in the UK.
Over the next few weeks, I got to know Omar and his friends. Like all the Syrians I spoke to, they knew they were being exploited, but they knew there was very little they could do about it.
Some of them were being paid a little over £1 an hour, well below the Turkish minimum wage. The 15-year-old boy told me he wanted to be in school but he couldn't afford not to work. So he was spending more than 12 hours a day ironing clothes that are then shipped to the UK.
[...]
Efforts are being made to get them into education but it's estimated that as many as 400,000 are working, many of them in the garment industry.
I've spoken to some of the parents of these children. They don't want their kids working, but they say they simply don't have a choice.
One boy, just 13, told me he was between jobs. He had spent the morning looking for work when we spoke. No luck. I asked him what he would do now. Tears rolled slowly down his cheek as he told me that if he didn't work, he couldn't live.
Our evidence confirms that big fashion brands are profiting from refugees and their children. All the brands involved say they are completely opposed to child labour and any exploitation of Syrian refugees.
But our investigation shows they sometimes don't know how or where their clothes are being made. And until the brands know exactly who is making their clothes, then this type of exploitation is almost certain to continue.
As shitty as it may sound at least those kids have jobs and a way to support their family other then living in refugee camps.
Child industrialized labor also means that they've reached the industrial age.
Once Mosul falls the main offensive is going to force turks from the north and kurds from the east as they push into Syria. That could get sticky fast expecially if the peshmerga want to link up with Syrian kurds.
i don't know what world you're living in but turks and kurds would do nothing without prior russian or american(or both) approval. a few days ago turks killed about 160 - 200 syrian kurds just N of Aleppo in couple air raids then Lavrov said russians will blow turkish jets out of the sky if it'll happen again but that had to be a lesson, a demonstration of, or a message sent from someone to someone else because there's no plane flying above Syria unaccounted for by radars from both Russia and US.
also, there's a massive media push in UK(it's been going on for some weeks now) to get public opinion to support a UK military intervention in Syria(are used: syrian children, UK actors/celebrities, UN reports, reckless political statements, White Helmets bullshit, etc).
My point is that there is going to have to be kurdish forces fighting ISIS in the general vicinity of the turkish border and turkish forces. Aleppo had a chance of friction with the kurds wanting more independence but its nothing compared to the friction between turkic and kurdish forces fighting next to eachother.
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