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Crisis in Japan - Page 197

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Thread is about the various issues surrounding Japan in the aftermath of the recent earthquake. Don't bring the shit side of the internet to the thread, and post with the realization that this thread is very important, and very real, to your fellow members.

Do not post speculative and unconfirmed news you saw on TV or anywhere else. Generally the more dramatic it sounds the less likely it's true.
peekn
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States1152 Posts
December 24 2011 06:46 GMT
#3921
It's very hard for me to believe that Fukushima's "melt down" was worse than that of Chernobyl. I'm sorry but I'm not the type of person to buy into conspiracy theories or anything of the like. I wait for academic responses and official publishing.

I think that I'll sit back and wait for an official announcement, I mean seriously you guys think that it is all a huge cover up : / sorry just can't believe it.
affinity_12
Profile Blog Joined September 2009
172 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-24 07:31:36
December 24 2011 07:26 GMT
#3922
peekn, read what the experts have to say. This is Gundersen, a neutral, non-biased nuclear physicist. This is not a crazy conspiracy theory and also he predicted that the degree of contamination at Fukushima is worse than that of Chernobyl.

[...] Experts have said that the contamination from Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl. [...]

While four decades [to decommission Fukushima Daiichi] seems like a long time, some think that estimate is unrealistically short, given the scale of the nuclear disaster at the plant.

“It looks too optimistic for many people. But nobody knows,” said Katsuyoshi Ueno, a photographer in Tokyo.

“For the majority it is just out of imagination. Who knows about 2041 or 2051? A lot of people question ‘Will I be alive when it’s completed?’” [...]


Source: http://enenews.com/experts-contamination-fukushima-worse-chernobyl-many-2051-goal-unrealistic-given-scale-catastrophe-will-be-alive-when-completed

Nuclear Expert: 1,000,000 cancers from Fukushima in Japan over next 20 years — First thyroid, then lung, organ, brain, leukemia (VIDEO)
Title: Fukushima – Total Cost
Uploaded by: wepollock
Date: Dec 21, 2011
Description: Arnie Gundersen of Fairwinds Associates (a leading nuclear expert) and Warren Pollock ( http://www.wepollock.com ) redefine the Fukushima nuclear incidents (meltdowns and explosions) in terms of human and total cost. [...]

At 13:20 in

I think the 20 year cost from Fukushima will be about one million cancers
Based on Three Mile Island studies
About a 20% increase in lung cancer 3-5 years after TMI
And that was small compared to Fukushima
And in a much lower population density
First thyroid cancer
Then lung cancer
Then organ cancer, leukemia, brain cancer, things like that


Source: http://enenews.com/nuclear-expert-forecasts-1000000-cancers-from-fukushima-in-japan-first-thyroid-then-lung-organ-brain-leukemia-video


Note that the nuclear experts are predicting just for Fukushima alone. However since the nuclear radiation has spread throughout northern Japan and also southward towards Tokyo and central Japan, it's going to be a guessing game to determine if these areas are safe or not. As of now products from all over Japan have been shown to be contaminated, including Meiji food products whose stocks have taken a huge blow from news that its baby milk formula has been contaminated by nuclear fallout from the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.

Proof that Gundersen is an expert in nuclear chemistry/physics:


On December 24 2011 14:18 XRaDiiX wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 24 2011 14:09 Kenshin_915 wrote:
On December 24 2011 13:37 affinity_12 wrote:
On December 24 2011 13:30 Kenshin_915 wrote:
On December 24 2011 13:18 affinity_12 wrote:
On December 24 2011 13:10 Kenshin_915 wrote:
On December 24 2011 11:02 affinity_12 wrote:
On December 24 2011 10:59 DeepElemBlues wrote:
The posts linking to "experts" saying it's worse than Chernobyl is a good example of people falling for an appeal to authority.

Chris Busby is the man behind the "1,000,000+ deaths" claim.

He's also behind a business selling quack radiation cures:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/21/christopher-busby-radiation-pills-fukushima
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2011/nov/22/christopher-busby-nuclear-green-party

^ And nuclear experts say that the nuclear contamination in Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl.


Those "nuclear experts" mostly aren't.


Are you a nuclear expert? Do you know about enews? It's a highly respected source when it comes to energy, especially nuclear energy.

Also it's not just Chris Busby, but also a whole lot of nuclear scientists from the international community and the guy who said 1,000,000+ cancers was NOT Chris Busby in that video. Also it's 1,000,000+ cancers, not 1,000,000+ deaths, please read what the article actually says and the video expands on it.

Nevertheless, I know that Chris Busby and the international nuclear committee is a whole lot more educated on nuclear chemistry/physics than most posters on TL.net. Before bringing out some stupid conspiracy theory, read the facts about the Japanese government trying to hide to avoid criticism by international nuclear experts.



Posting a 33 min Youtube vid isn't the best idea to try and prove a point. An article from a respected website would be better. I can respect Gundersens opinion because he's an expert, but even then, he's only one expect. His estimate of 1m cancer cases is going to need more support than just his estimate. He made that estimate based on his experience from The 3 Mile Island incident and an epidemiological study done by a Dr Steve Wing. That's all fine and good, but making an estimate like that on the fly is going to need more support and research before it can be take seriously. Something like a comprehensive report written by Gundersen would be nice.

I don't see why you would respect the opinion of Busby anyways, he's a con man that deliberately sold "Anti radiation medicine" for ridiculously jacked up prices to vulnerable people, and they did fuck all. He does have a PhD in Chemical Physics and a BSc in Chemistry, but his recent work on radiation has been heavily criticized (Notably his Second Event Theory and Photoelectric Effect Theory), and he never seems to get his research peer reviewed (big red flag). He loves making claims that are foggy at best about his estimates regarding cancer incidences and deaths from Chernobyl and Fukushima citing "calculations" made with his colleagues. They estimate 1.4m people dead from Chernobyl and a similar amount will follow from Fukushima. This is weak speculation, he based his estimations off a report from a "New York Academy of Sciences" publication, that was actually a non peer reviewed Russian book that had some limited support from math models. IE his opinion regarding nuclear physics is a confusing mix of sources that he cherry picks, and his own quack theories. He isn't an expert, and shouldn't be regarded as so. He also started a conspiracy theory that

"alleges the Japanese Government is involved in a conspiracy to spread radioactive contamination throughout Japan, in an effort to hide cancer clusters from epidemiologists and thus hinder litigation"

Lmfao, I rest my case. I think he's more concerned with selling his "Anti radiation cures" than doing reputable science. That doesn't seem to be going well for him.

I don't have any comments about what the Japanese government has done to try and cover up the severity of the incident (If there is a cover up), as I haven't read about it.




I never said that I respect Busby's opinion but I just implied that Busby's opinion is probably correct to some degree. Of course he's not the most credible source because he's interested in making money however he does have an expert opinion and that alone is more credible than biased government figures.

Busby's just a small part of that website. Gundersen who is quoted more often at that website is more respectable. How many more nuclear experts need to speak out before people actually know what's going on in Japan? Japanese people are brainwashed into thinking that the situation is alright, however they have been misled by the Japanese government.

I don't know if Gundersen's prediction of 1,000,000+ cancers is correct, however I'd say it is an accurate estimate since TMI was a much smaller incident than Fukushima and that incident still saw an explosion of cancers after it.


He's not an expert AT ALL, and he's EXTREMELY biases with an obvious agenda, so I don't know why you keep protecting him. I still can't comment to what degree the Japanese have downplayed the incident if any as I haven't done any research. Giving some credible sources would be nice. And for the second point, I'd have to say more than one. Give me some damning evidence from multiple sources that are credible and I'll take the claim more seriously. And I'm sorry, but your opinion bears no weight unless you're an expert which I take it your not.


Information on Christopher Busby's education:

Busby obtained a BSc in Chemistry with First Class Honours from the University of London, and then did research for the Wellcome Foundation (applying spectroscopic and analytical methods to chemical pharmacology and molecular drug interactions). He was elected a Member of the Royal Society of Chemistry although he has not been a Member since 1984. He later gained a PhD in Chemical Physics at the University of Kent, researching Raman spectro-electrochemistry.


He has a PhD in chemical physics (which covers a lot of nuclear chemistry/physics) and you're saying he's not an expert? He might be a biased expert, but saying he's "not" an expert itself is extremely biased. I don't trust him either so I don't know why you're accusing me of "protecting" him.

Also, Gundersen is probably one of the most neutral experts in nuclear chemistry/physics and he's the one who said he predicts at least 1,000,000 cancers from Fukushima alone. He also said that the concentration of the radiation particulates in the air are likely higher in Fukushima than that of TMI and Chernobyl. What you don't understand is that there are no exact figures from the Fukushima aster because it is censored. What I'm trying to say is that the only reliable information comes from nuclear experts who have been to Japan to discuss with the Japanese nuclear agency.

Though that would not be 100% transparent because TEPCO themselves are trying to keep themselves alive, nuclear experts like Gundersen have more reliable information to offer than media sources or opinions from non-experts.


I don't see him as being an "Expert" because all of his theories he's come up with are GARBAGE. Have you read about his actual work into nuclear physics? Just parroting his PhD in Chemistry isn't enough to give his opinions and research validity. Only proper science does that, and he's really shitty at it. Is he an expert in Chemical Physics? Sure. Is he in Nuclear physics? From what I've read of his publications, absolutely not.

And I've already given my opinion on Gundersens work, and the answer is simple. There needs to be much more work done, by many more people, before the figures can be taken seriously.


It may only be a youtube video but he's far more an expert in the field than what you believe him to be

http://fairewinds.com/content/who-we-are



Show nested quote +
Arnie is an energy advisor with 39-years of nuclear power engineering experience. A former nuclear industry senior vice president, he earned his Bachelor's and Master's Degrees in nuclear engineering, holds a nuclear safety patent, and was a licensed reactor operator.

During his nuclear industry career, Arnie managed and coordinated projects at 70-nuclear power plants around the country. He currently speaks on television, radio, and at public meetings on the need for a new paradigm in energy production. An independent nuclear engineering and safety expert, Arnie provides testimony on nuclear operations, reliability, safety, and radiation issues to the NRC, Congressional and State Legislatures, and Government Agencies and Officials throughout the US, Canada, and internationally. In 2008, he was appointed by the Vermont Senate President to be the first Chair of the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Plant Oversight Panel. He has testified in numerous cases and before many different legislative bodies including the Czech Republic Senate.


Oh yes there's more....
:7


Show nested quote +
As the former vice president in an engineering organization, Arnie led the team of engineers who developed the plans for decommissioning Shippingport, the first major nuclear power plant in the US to be fully dismantled. He was also an invited author on the first DOE Decommissioning Handbook. Source term reconstruction is a method of forensic engineering used to calculate radiation releases from various nuclear facilities after nuclear incidents or accidents.

Arnie is frequently called upon by public officials, attorneys, and intervenors, to perform source term reconstructions. His source term reconstruction efforts vary. Arnie has calculated exposures to oil workers, who received radiation exposure while working on wells. He has also calculated radiation releases to children with health concerns, who live near a nuclear facility, like the one that carted radioactive sewage off-site and spread it on farmers' fields. Finally, he has performed an accurate source term construction of the radiation releases from the Three Mile Island nuclear accident.


So before you go claiming he isn't an expert i suggest you actually look up what kind-of Expert he is.

Game, set, match. Here are some very informative videos he has released ever since the start of the disaster. Even though he was somewhat limited to information by TEPCO and the government of Japans censorship of much information coming out.

http://fairewinds.com/multimedia
mikell
Profile Joined August 2010
Australia352 Posts
December 24 2011 07:29 GMT
#3923
On December 24 2011 14:54 Hekisui wrote:
Gonna pick up a PhD in physics tomorrow, since they are so easy to get.

Some dude that probably struggled with the soft math in HS saying PhD in physics are easy to get wtf.


[crap]...

Another tricky bit is that people who know most about physics and particles or nuclear engineering often know very little about what radiation does to the human body. The whole radiation-human body-cancer angle is poorly understood. Especially so compared with all the particle physics and nuclear reactor stuff that's all rock solid and obvious.


PhDs in physics are easy to get - relative to a PhD in lets see.. anything medical.
not only that, people that hold PhDs in physics are not likely to hold jobs, because they find that their thesis has little or no application OR that the only facility working around their specific area of knowledge is the place they obtained their PhD.

not that it matters, but i graduate next March with my BEng in Mechanical Systems so no i didn't struggle in HS physics .

..

the actual interaction between ionizing radiation and human tissue is not understood - because it would be difficult to monitor the development of cancer unless you purposely put people in tests which bombard them with radiation and see what happens eh?



drone hard
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
January 01 2012 06:04 GMT
#3924
A 7.0 in Japan just now?!
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Caphe
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
Vietnam10817 Posts
January 01 2012 06:05 GMT
#3925
There is another earthquake just offshore of Tokyo with the magnitude of 7.0. I cant believe this happen in the first day of 2012. My gf is in Tokyo rightnow
Here's more detail http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2012/01/134509.html
Terran
Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
January 01 2012 06:07 GMT
#3926
:O

No Tsunami warning yet.
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
Grobyc
Profile Blog Joined June 2008
Canada18410 Posts
January 01 2012 06:08 GMT
#3927
What a terrible start to the new year. Poor Japan
If you watch Godzilla backwards it's about a benevolent lizard who helps rebuild a city and then moonwalks into the ocean.
Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
January 01 2012 06:13 GMT
#3928
Was this one of the semi-regular deep fault ocean ones or was one really close to land? I am confused.
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
FliedLice
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Germany7494 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-01 06:14:19
January 01 2012 06:13 GMT
#3929
7.0 isn't THAT bad is it?

I mean they should be relatively used to earthquakes in Japan.
Kevmeister @ Dota2
Froadac
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States6733 Posts
January 01 2012 06:15 GMT
#3930
USGS said there is no tsunami threat, thank god.
Seeker *
Profile Blog Joined April 2005
Where dat snitch at?37027 Posts
January 01 2012 06:16 GMT
#3931
On January 01 2012 15:13 FliedLice wrote:
7.0 isn't THAT bad is it?

I mean they should be relatively used to earthquakes in Japan.

What does it matter if it's bad or THAT bad?

An earthquake is never a pleasant thing..... we should be posting about how our condolences go to Japan and its ppl..... not wondering if it's bad or THAT bad :/
ModeratorPeople ask me, "Seeker, what are you seeking?" My answer? "Sleep, damn it! Always sleep!"
TL+ Member
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-01 06:19:34
January 01 2012 06:18 GMT
#3932
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/usc0007fbh.html#details

242 km (150 miles) SW of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
365 km (226 miles) S of Hamamatsu, Honshu, Japan
393 km (244 miles) S of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
495 km (307 miles) SSW of TOKYO, Japan


[image loading]
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
bITt.mAN
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Switzerland3693 Posts
January 01 2012 06:18 GMT
#3933
I have friends in Japan, I know multiple people who live in Japan. Imma check their Facebooks, see that they're allright, and keep up the prayin'
BW4LYF . . . . . . PM me, I LOVE PMs. . . . . . Long live "NaDa's Body" . . . . . . Fantasy | Bisu/Best | Jaedong . . . . .
EchOne
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
United States2906 Posts
January 01 2012 06:19 GMT
#3934
On January 01 2012 15:13 FliedLice wrote:
7.0 isn't THAT bad is it?

I mean they should be relatively used to earthquakes in Japan.

7.0 can still be a major earthquake capable of great damage and suffering depending on its circumstances. The Tangshan quake was a 7.5 and last year's Haiti quake was a 7.0. We can only wish Japan faces no similar calamity.
面白くない世の中, 面白くすればいいさ
Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
January 01 2012 06:20 GMT
#3935
On January 01 2012 15:16 Seeker wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 01 2012 15:13 FliedLice wrote:
7.0 isn't THAT bad is it?

I mean they should be relatively used to earthquakes in Japan.

What does it matter if it's bad or THAT bad?

An earthquake is never a pleasant thing..... we should be posting about how our condolences go to Japan and its ppl..... not wondering if it's bad or THAT bad :/


It depends on where it is. There are earthquakes all the time especially around the deep trenches and nothing but fish and whales feel.
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
Rodimus Prime
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
182 Posts
January 01 2012 06:21 GMT
#3936
False alarm guys. 370kms under the sea.
Antisocialmunky
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States5912 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-01-01 06:26:04
January 01 2012 06:23 GMT
#3937
Sendai and Indian Ocean were two very rare and special types of quakes where a huge section of seabed moves up or down to displace the whole entire ocean IE several miles of water over a huge area. Most earthquakes don't do that and are parts of the crust buckling or rubbing side to side.

Basically if Sendai and Indian Ocean earthquakes were a climax, this sort of thing is just geologic foreplay.
[゚n゚] SSSSssssssSSsss ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Marine/Raven Guide:http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=163605
empty.bottle
Profile Joined July 2009
685 Posts
January 01 2012 06:23 GMT
#3938
7.0 is not big for countries who are used to earthquakes
Froadac
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
United States6733 Posts
January 01 2012 06:32 GMT
#3939
On January 01 2012 15:19 EchOne wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 01 2012 15:13 FliedLice wrote:
7.0 isn't THAT bad is it?

I mean they should be relatively used to earthquakes in Japan.

7.0 can still be a major earthquake capable of great damage and suffering depending on its circumstances. The Tangshan quake was a 7.5 and last year's Haiti quake was a 7.0. We can only wish Japan faces no similar calamity.

True. Thankfully Japan has ridiculously good building code.

ESPECIALLY in comparison to Haiti.
flamewheel
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
January 01 2012 06:34 GMT
#3940
Hang in there Japan
Writerdamn, i was two days from retirement
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