Thread is about the various issues surrounding Japan in the aftermath of the recent earthquake. Don't bring the shit side of the internet to the thread, and post with the realization that this thread is very important, and very real, to your fellow members.
Do not post speculative and unconfirmed news you saw on TV or anywhere else. Generally the more dramatic it sounds the less likely it's true.
On December 16 2011 17:59 affinity_12 wrote: Remember guys this is a disaster of the same scale as Chernobyl.
I dont know what to think about that. Do you say that because you underestimate the effect of Chernobyl or because you feel that people underestimate effects of Fukushima?
The only thing to think about it is that it's factually wrong. Since Fukushima released about 1/5 th of the radiations Chernobyl did.
There are many scales to judge by. Perception is the one that concerns me the most. Nuclear disasters are hard for most people to perceive properly and gauge correctly. It's easy to look back on Chernobyl and see the upwards of 100 thousand chernobyl related cancer death and grasp the magnitude of that event but it is harder when the catastrophe is still fresh. Right about the time of Fukushima accident i had a lot of discussion on that topic with my friends and the question a lot of people asked was inevitably do you know how many dead. I dont blame them because there are so many people that die right now that sometimes it is perhaps hard to care about people who will die later. But somehow it feels that whenever people hear of radiation they expect faces being melted off, and as pretty as that picture would be as far as conveying the gravity of the situation, it's just unrealistic expectation.
So yea while perhaps we won't see as much casualties as there were as a result of Chernobyl i feel that as far as the scale of people expectations goes Fukushima is as far from it's real threat as Chernobyl was.
Guys I'm not a 100% expert on nuclear physics. However the situation in Japan is much worse than perceived in this thread. The air in Japan is 300 times worse than in Chernobyl when the nuclear meltdown happened.
The Japanese government is HIDING this information. The Japanese media are happily reporting that the progress has been good, bla bla bla. The Japanese government and media are reporting that some Japanese foods are contaminated but the fact is that most, if not ALL Japanese food and other Japanese products are contaminated by nuclear radiation.
[...] Experts have said that the contamination from Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl. [...]
While four decades [to decommission Fukushima Daiichi] seems like a long time, some think that estimate is unrealistically short, given the scale of the nuclear disaster at the plant.
“It looks too optimistic for many people. But nobody knows,” said Katsuyoshi Ueno, a photographer in Tokyo.
“For the majority it is just out of imagination. Who knows about 2041 or 2051? A lot of people question ‘Will I be alive when it’s completed?’” [...]
Nuclear Expert: 1,000,000 cancers from Fukushima in Japan over next 20 years — First thyroid, then lung, organ, brain, leukemia (VIDEO) Title: Fukushima – Total Cost Uploaded by: wepollock Date: Dec 21, 2011 Description: Arnie Gundersen of Fairwinds Associates (a leading nuclear expert) and Warren Pollock ( http://www.wepollock.com ) redefine the Fukushima nuclear incidents (meltdowns and explosions) in terms of human and total cost. [...]
At 13:20 in
I think the 20 year cost from Fukushima will be about one million cancers Based on Three Mile Island studies About a 20% increase in lung cancer 3-5 years after TMI And that was small compared to Fukushima And in a much lower population density First thyroid cancer Then lung cancer Then organ cancer, leukemia, brain cancer, things like that
Note that the nuclear experts are predicting just for Fukushima alone. However since the nuclear radiation has spread throughout northern Japan and also southward towards Tokyo and central Japan, it's going to be a guessing game to determine if these areas are safe or not. As of now products from all over Japan have been shown to be contaminated, including Meiji food products whose stocks have taken a huge blow from news that its baby milk formula has been contaminated by nuclear fallout from the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.
On December 24 2011 10:59 DeepElemBlues wrote: The posts linking to "experts" saying it's worse than Chernobyl is a good example of people falling for an appeal to authority.
Chris Busby is the man behind the "1,000,000+ deaths" claim.
He's also behind a business selling quack radiation cures:
^ And nuclear experts say that the nuclear contamination in Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl.
Those "nuclear experts" mostly aren't.
Are you a nuclear expert? Do you know about enews? It's a highly respected source when it comes to energy, especially nuclear energy.
Also it's not just Chris Busby, but also a whole lot of nuclear scientists from the international community and the guy who said 1,000,000+ cancers was NOT Chris Busby in that video. Also it's 1,000,000+ cancers, not 1,000,000+ deaths, please read what the article actually says and the video expands on it.
Nevertheless, I know that Chris Busby and the international nuclear committee is a whole lot more educated on nuclear chemistry/physics than most posters on TL.net. Before bringing out some stupid conspiracy theory, read the facts about the Japanese government trying to hide to avoid criticism by international nuclear experts.
Are you a nuclear expert? Do you know about enews? It's a highly respected source when it comes to energy, especially nuclear energy.
Appeals to authority are boring fallacies.
I also doubt that ENE News is "highly respected," since it seems to have been created for the sole purpose of advocating hard-left environmental scare stories and has focused almost solely on conspiracy theories about Fukushima since the tsunami.
Also it's not just Chris Busby, but also a whole lot of nuclear scientists from the international community and the guy who said 1,000,000+ cancers was NOT Chris Busby in that video. Also it's 1,000,000+ cancers, not 1,000,000+ deaths, please read what the article actually says and the video expands on it.
No, your first link has a list of links at the bottom of the story, number 15 is Mr. Busby.
Nevertheless, I know that Chris Busby and the international nuclear committee is a whole lot more educated on nuclear chemistry/physics than most posters on TL.net. Before bringing out some stupid conspiracy theory, read the facts about the Japanese government trying to hide to avoid criticism by international nuclear experts.
Anti-nuclear "nuclear experts" have been a scourge on science for 35 years now. I know they're "experts" so that must mean their word is Law or something, but it's the same usual suspects with ridiculous conspiracy theories.
The Japanese government set many laws in place to censor almost all information about the fall-out etc and Nuclear plant coming out of Japan.
The situation than would obviously be worse than they are reporting much worse. If they are going to such great lengths as to censor the information from the world.
If anyone wants somewhat relevant information and informative updates this is a good site to get them and an expert at that explaining the situation he has been giving updates since the event started.
On December 24 2011 10:59 DeepElemBlues wrote: The posts linking to "experts" saying it's worse than Chernobyl is a good example of people falling for an appeal to authority.
Chris Busby is the man behind the "1,000,000+ deaths" claim.
He's also behind a business selling quack radiation cures:
^ And nuclear experts say that the nuclear contamination in Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl.
Those "nuclear experts" mostly aren't.
Are you a nuclear expert? Do you know about enews? It's a highly respected source when it comes to energy, especially nuclear energy.
Also it's not just Chris Busby, but also a whole lot of nuclear scientists from the international community and the guy who said 1,000,000+ cancers was NOT Chris Busby in that video. Also it's 1,000,000+ cancers, not 1,000,000+ deaths, please read what the article actually says and the video expands on it.
Nevertheless, I know that Chris Busby and the international nuclear committee is a whole lot more educated on nuclear chemistry/physics than most posters on TL.net. Before bringing out some stupid conspiracy theory, read the facts about the Japanese government trying to hide to avoid criticism by international nuclear experts.
constantly reading up on insane conspiracy theories. it's almost like there's some people in the world that actually rather having constant 'expert' opinions stating that lots of people are going to die etc. it's also apparent that they are all highly UNeducated, and unlikely have any idea what "half-life" actual means for nuclear particles.
Are you a nuclear expert? Do you know about enews? It's a highly respected source when it comes to energy, especially nuclear energy.
Appeals to authority are boring fallacies.
While I agree that his source is basically complete junk, an appeal to authority is not a fallacy. In fact, unless you yourself are a nuclear physicist, you would be appealing to authority with any contribution you made. And even if you were a physicist, you would still be dependent on the authority of the people taking the measurements.
The only thing that matters in this kind of discussion is the credibility of the authority that you appeal to. Which, granted, is absolutely zero in affinity's case.
It's not hard to see why Japan would strive to censor information about this disaster it affects their tourism industry and export industry pretty badly.
Why are my sources completely junk? Who would you rather believe, the Japanese government who is hardcore censoring any information harming the image of Japan or sources from nuclear experts (whether they are pro-nuclear or anti-nuclear) who actually know what they are talking about? Or would you rather just listen to some guy on TL.net telling you he's a nuclear expert and saying that nuclear experts are "junk"? The only reliable sources are those from nuclear experts, no-one else because they are experienced experts in the field.
I'm not trying to be offensive but some of the comments on this topic remind me of people who just talk out of their ass. I want a discussion based on authority figures, not some made-up bullshit by the media. The media is censored and it does it well.
I'm not trying to say Japan has no chance of recovery. However the fact is that it is just as worse and many sources from nuclear experts say the degree of contamination in Japan is far worse than the Chernobyl disaster in Chernobyl. Notice how they're not saying how far the radiation has spread to other countries other than Japan because thankfully the winds during and after the incident were blowing eastward toward the ocean, not towards China or Korea.
While I agree that his source is basically complete junk, an appeal to authority is not a fallacy. In fact, unless you yourself are a nuclear physicist, you would be appealing to authority with any contribution you made. And even if you were a physicist, you would still be dependent on the authority of the people taking the measurements.
I would disagree, an appeal to authority is when you say "He's right because he's a scientist/economist/engineer/whatever," not "His measurements are correct." That's an appeal to the authority of the evidence, which is not really an appeal to authority... well, a better way to say it would be that evidence or reason are the only authorities you can logically appeal to.
The severity of Japan's nuclear disaster has changed dramatically since March 2011. Around March 2011 people were saying that there is no way Fukushima could be of similar scale as Chernobyl. A few months after, they put Fukushima and Chernobyl as the same level in terms of the severity of the nuclear incident. At present, nuclear experts are saying the degree of contamination of Fukushima is worse than Chernobyl.
On December 24 2011 12:49 affinity_12 wrote: Why are my sources completely junk? Who would you rather believe, the Japanese government who is hardcore censoring any information harming the image of Japan or sources from nuclear experts (whether they are pro-nuclear or anti-nuclear) who actually know what they are talking about? Or would you rather just listen to some guy on TL.net telling you he's a nuclear expert and saying that nuclear experts are "junk"?
I'm not trying to be offensive but some of the comments on this topic remind me of people who just talk out of their ass. I want a discussion based on authority figures, not some made-up bullshit by the media. The media is censored and it does it well.
I'm not trying to say Japan has no chance of recovery. However the fact is that it is just as worse and many sources from nuclear experts say the degree of contamination in Japan is far worse than the Chernobyl disaster in Chernobyl. Notice how they're not saying how far the radiation has spread to other countries other than Japan because thankfully the winds during and after the incident were blowing westward toward the ocean, not towards China or Korea.
Your sources are junk because you linked a badly put together article on what amounts to a borderline conspiracy theory website that doesn't even cite its original sources, but just links other media sites with the amusingly excitable label "EXPERT" next to one or two.
I would not be particularly surprised to hear the fallout from Fukushima is worse than reported by the Japanese government - in fact I think that's likely. But your source is certainly not sufficient to convince me of that.
Because I'm bored, I clicked through a half dozen of the better links on the bottom of that page. Busby is known to be biased and to have made outrageous claims. Mironova worked as a vaguely related engineer for a little while and left to be an anti-nuclear activist. That's the only label she needs. The most neutral proponent there is Reisch, but he's only extrapolating from the number of people that live nearby coupled to a vague assertion - made from the comfort of his home in Sweden, no less - that the reactors collapsed more seriously than reported. Reisch has also recently died, not that that's immediately relevant to his statement.
Either you present actual data showing that Japan's radiation levels are higher than the Government is letting on, or you directly cite demonstrably neutral authorities which say that is the case. Since you have no such data, nor does anyone I've seen, if you want to be even halfway convincing your sources need to be absolutely watertight. The vast majority are not even close.
EPT![[image loading]](http://www.emergency-response-planning.com/Portals/87350/images/Fukushima%20vs.%20Chernobyl%20Fallout-resized-600.jpg)
![[image loading]](/staff/p4NDemik/TableorGraph/chernobyl.jpg)
