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The European Debt Crisis and the Euro - Page 62

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Trollk
Profile Joined September 2011
Belgium93 Posts
February 09 2012 17:01 GMT
#1221
On February 10 2012 01:42 Hider wrote:
I already argued that it is nessarcary for companies to know the prices of products for them to estimate demand, and they have incentives to innovate and make better products. Hence private companies are more efficient.
If a private company isn't creating value it goes bankrupt, so per se private ran companies has to create more value.

So please argue why a government run "company" can be more efficient than a private run company.

I can point that in cases of externalities,public goods and natural monopolies, the government can produce more efficiently than a private company but I doubt that is what you mean.

My argument is that they can be efficient. You talk about incentives that makes private companies efficient. These incentives can also be applied to government owned company. If a gov owned com (GOC) is inefficient and produce losses, then the government has to pay it for. If this goc keeps on doing that, then the government also will be inclined to dismiss and shut down that company. Therefore its in its interest to be competive (again the need for a competive environment: If there is credible chance that the government stops covering the losses, the GOC will be driven to be as efficient as possible).

Understand that I do not believe that we should nationalize everything out there. I think that if a market can produce products/services efficiently, that there also is no need to interfere. But if it does, for the examples I gave in the beginning, then the government should step in (only if it cannot be solved privately, eg the Coarse theorem).

P.S. Nice discussion but for now this will be my final reply, for I have other matters to attent to
Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9390 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-09 17:45:28
February 09 2012 17:43 GMT
#1222
On February 10 2012 02:01 Trollk wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2012 01:42 Hider wrote:
I already argued that it is nessarcary for companies to know the prices of products for them to estimate demand, and they have incentives to innovate and make better products. Hence private companies are more efficient.
If a private company isn't creating value it goes bankrupt, so per se private ran companies has to create more value.

So please argue why a government run "company" can be more efficient than a private run company.

I can point that in cases of externalities,public goods and natural monopolies, the government can produce more efficiently than a private company but I doubt that is what you mean.

My argument is that they can be efficient. You talk about incentives that makes private companies efficient. These incentives can also be applied to government owned company. If a gov owned com (GOC) is inefficient and produce losses, then the government has to pay it for. If this goc keeps on doing that, then the government also will be inclined to dismiss and shut down that company. Therefore its in its interest to be competive (again the need for a competive environment: If there is credible chance that the government stops covering the losses, the GOC will be driven to be as efficient as possible).

Understand that I do not believe that we should nationalize everything out there. I think that if a market can produce products/services efficiently, that there also is no need to interfere. But if it does, for the examples I gave in the beginning, then the government should step in (only if it cannot be solved privately, eg the Coarse theorem).

P.S. Nice discussion but for now this will be my final reply, for I have other matters to attent to


Externalities are only a problem if private property rights aren't well defined.
Private companies only become monopolies if they are efficient (aka producing more efficient than their competitors, or if entry barriers are too costly etc.).

Anyway lets distinct between 2 kind of government "companies".
- Public Services (libraries).
- COmpanies where the government has 50% + shareholder rights.

I hope you can agree that public services are inefficient (?).

When the governement has 50% + shareholder rights the companies can keep running deficits for a long time. Its operations can have a negative NPV and not being shut down (maybe it will get shut down eventually but thats not the point).
Every time negative NPV operations are not shut down wealth is destroyed.
When private companies have negative NPV a liquidiation of the company will typically be made.
Jerubaal
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
United States7684 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-09 18:00:24
February 09 2012 17:58 GMT
#1223
On February 10 2012 00:31 Hider wrote:

If wars could actually was good for the economy why not do the following every time we have a ression:
1) Hire people to create a hole in the ground.
2) Hire people to fill it.


Repeat proces until economy is fixed...




You know this is precisely the sort of programs that proliferated in the New Deal. xD

I couldn't find the article again, but I read an article in The Economist that said current recovery is echoing the Scandinavian recession in the 1990s. Sweden first eliminated its private debt, like the U.S. is now, and recovered more quickly than countries like Finland that adopted austerity measures.
I'm not stupid, a marauder just shot my brain.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-09 18:16:50
February 09 2012 18:15 GMT
#1224
On February 10 2012 01:05 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2012 01:01 Trollk wrote:
On February 10 2012 00:57 Hider wrote:
Article regardign the myths of the great depression:
http://mises.org/daily/1623

Please no more mentions of the great depressions as a time of austerity.

No offense mate, but if I linked a work of Keynes to state my point that conflicts with yours, then you wouldn't accept it either.


Ive read much keynesian (nonsense). But facts are facts. Just take that article for the facts.

Show nested quote +

Private investment. Investment and consumption is the same in the short term (you are spending money, in the short term you don't care about the efficiency of the spendings).


I think someone has made you very confused :O.
Where have you read about this.

Seriously man? It's basic macroeconomics. The efficiency of investment is a question of GPD, or economical growth. If you only consider the short run (and since we are talking about economical crisis, it is the case), then it's all a question of what is effectively used in the economy and what is not - the savings on one side and the rest.It's the basic opposition between the classicalexcept malthus and marx (using Say's law because in god they trust) and the keynesian approach.

Also, the article you linked does not shows facts except that there was still unemployment in 1939. The rest is just some economists saying "if those policies would not have existed, there would not have been any unemployment in 1939".
Your text is so full of shit btw :

In short, it was capitalism that finally ended the Great Depression, not FDR's hair-brained cartel, wage-increasing, unionizing, and welfare state expanding policies.

Here is from a review for the book you linked :

This book has several things going for it, but objectivity and balance are not among them. DiLorenzo makes no pretense of trying to present evidence on both sides of historical debates, a failure that some scholars argued marred his previous book, The Real Lincoln (See Thomas Krannawitter, "Dishonest About Abe, Spring 2002), an all-out condemnation of the 16th president. Much of the scholarly literature is ignored. He does little or no original research, but superbly describes the work of a select number of other scholars.

While errors are inevitable in a book-length treatise, the number in this volume is high, ammunition for detractors who will argue that this is nothing but a polemic. For example, DiLorenzo implies that Ohio tried to tax the First Bank of the United States out of existence in 1819, when in fact that bank's charter had expired years earlier and had been replaced in 1816 by the Second Bank of the United States. He claims the Sugar Act (1764) "levied higher taxes on sugar imports." Actually, the Sugar Act lowered taxes, but provided for rigid enforcement, heretofore lacking. DiLorenzo speaks about "economic historians Robert Gray and James Peterson," when really talking about Ralph Gray and John Peterson, neither of whom was an economic historian (although they wrote a textbook in the 1960s).

Sometimes DiLorenzo stretches the truth to make a point. He says that "progress against poverty in American stopped and reversed itself at precisely the moment when the federal government declared 'war' on it." Strictly speaking, this is incorrect. The poverty rate fell significantly in the first nine years after the War on Poverty was declared (from 19% in 1964 to 11.1% in 1973). It would have been correct to say, "Poverty rates had fallen sharply before the War on Poverty was declared, but stopped falling within a decade of the war's declaration— and even today are higher than three decades ago." DiLorenzo's point is valid that the War on Poverty was a failure in the long run, but the factual misstatements expose the entire argument to discredit.

One more example should suffice. Speaking of occupational injuries, DiLorenzo asserts that "they have not gone down since the creation of OSHA." That is dubious, to say the least. Statistics are distorted by changing notions of what an injury is, but my reading of the data is that decline has continued since OSHA's creation. Occupational fatalities (on which there are no definitional difficulties) are clearly down sharply over the last three decades. Still, DiLorenzo is more right than wrong. While occupational safety has improved, most of the improvement reflects changes in the nature of work (e.g., reductions in dangerous mining and factory employment), and is merely a continuation of improvements observed before OSHA was created. There is little evidence that OSHA has accelerated the downward trend. Yet, by denying the existence of such a trend, DiLorenzo reduces his credibility.

http://www.claremont.org/publications/crb/id.990/article_detail.asp
Just saying, it's not facts.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9390 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-09 19:32:08
February 09 2012 19:27 GMT
#1225
On February 10 2012 03:15 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2012 01:05 Hider wrote:
On February 10 2012 01:01 Trollk wrote:
On February 10 2012 00:57 Hider wrote:
Article regardign the myths of the great depression:
http://mises.org/daily/1623

Please no more mentions of the great depressions as a time of austerity.

No offense mate, but if I linked a work of Keynes to state my point that conflicts with yours, then you wouldn't accept it either.


Ive read much keynesian (nonsense). But facts are facts. Just take that article for the facts.


Private investment. Investment and consumption is the same in the short term (you are spending money, in the short term you don't care about the efficiency of the spendings).


I think someone has made you very confused :O.
Where have you read about this.

Seriously man? It's basic macroeconomics. The efficiency of investment is a question of GPD, or economical growth. If you only consider the short run (and since we are talking about economical crisis, it is the case), then it's all a question of what is effectively used in the economy and what is not - the savings on one side and the rest.It's the basic opposition between the classicalexcept malthus and marx (using Say's law because in god they trust) and the keynesian approach.

Also, the article you linked does not shows facts except that there was still unemployment in 1939. The rest is just some economists saying "if those policies would not have existed, there would not have been any unemployment in 1939".
Your text is so full of shit btw :


It actually mentions the politics (non-laizzesfaire) of Roosevelt. They were analyzed by keynesians economists. I never actually said that article prooved anything except that the great depression wasn't the fail of free markets. So take it for the facts, and ignore your bias (seirsouly dude, i never recommended any book. check what i wrote lol, and now your reviewing a book which mentions fallacies that has no relevance to anything in this debate).

Investment = Consumption short-term doesn't make any sense. What you may have wanted to say was that consumptions drives investments (?). But why should they be equal short-term?

And why is that even relevant? If Greece is spending more than what they can get in from revenues, how can more investments help them? Who should finance those investments?

Investments can come from 2 sources. IN a free market investmenings comes from savings. In a manipulated market, investmentings can come from "printed money". What is the solution? And investments are mostly seen as a long-term cure, if greeces problems are short term (?), why would increased investments help them to finance their debt?


Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9390 Posts
February 09 2012 19:45 GMT
#1226
On February 10 2012 02:58 Jerubaal wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2012 00:31 Hider wrote:

If wars could actually was good for the economy why not do the following every time we have a ression:
1) Hire people to create a hole in the ground.
2) Hire people to fill it.


Repeat proces until economy is fixed...




You know this is precisely the sort of programs that proliferated in the New Deal. xD

I couldn't find the article again, but I read an article in The Economist that said current recovery is echoing the Scandinavian recession in the 1990s. Sweden first eliminated its private debt, like the U.S. is now, and recovered more quickly than countries like Finland that adopted austerity measures.


Whats your point?
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-09 22:37:47
February 09 2012 22:31 GMT
#1227
Greece problems are not short term, they long term and they took 10 years to surface.
Every country spends to much but why is this a problem for greece?
The real problem with greece is that their productivity is to low and therefor they cant compete on the same level as other euro economys and this leads to a whole series of aditional problems, the debt is just a symptom.
Ireland has huge debts also ,but they also have high productivity wich gives them the prospect to get out of their trough.

For greece there no reasonable way to solve this in the short term and maybe even long term
They just keep pampering , postponing the inevitable in the hope things get better, while knowing it will not.
The things they want to do now wont increase the productivity of the greek labour force,for that a cultural revolution is needed inside greece
The cut in minimum wages is a good start though.
Wage cutting wont increase the productivity directly but it will create more jobs, raising the participation and with that the output of the greek economy.

i seriously wonder what there is to win for the greek population in this all,
it seems as if they are just a victem of a globalisation process they never ever voted for.
They will be kept just rich enough to not start a revolution but not a dime more

We never have extensive coverage about protests in greece btw, while we hear about all the protests in the arab world.
Are the greek happy and not protesting?,
Or did our media decide that its not worth covering and its better to cover whats happening in wtf syria of all places lol
Hider
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Denmark9390 Posts
February 09 2012 22:38 GMT
#1228
On February 10 2012 07:31 Rassy wrote:
Greece problems are not short term, they long term and they took 10 years to surface.
Every country spends to much but why is this a problem for greece?
The real problem with greece is that their productivity is to low and therefor they cant compete on the same level as other euro economys and this leads to a whole series of aditional problems, the debt is just a symptom.
Ireland has huge debts also ,but they also have high productivity wich gives them the prospect to get out of their trough.

For greece there no reasonable way to solve this in the short term and maybe even long term
They just keep pampering , postponing the inevitable in the hope things get better, while knowing it will not.
The things they want to do now wont increase the productivity of the greek labour force,for that a cultural revolution is needed inside greece
The cut in minimum wages is a good start though.
Wage cutting wont increase the productivity directly but it will create more jobs, raising the participation and with that the output of the greek economy.

i seriously wonder what there is to win for the greek population in this all,
it seems as if they are just a victem of a globalisation process they never ever voted for.
They will be kept just rich enough to not start a revolution but not a dime more

We never have extensive coverage about protests in greece btw, while we hear about all the protests in the arab world.
Are the greek happy and not protesting?,
Or did our media decide that its not worth covering and its better to cover whats happening in wtf syria of all places lol


Greece are definitely protesting unfortunately.
Trollk
Profile Joined September 2011
Belgium93 Posts
February 09 2012 23:05 GMT
#1229
On February 10 2012 02:43 Hider wrote:
Externalities are only a problem if private property rights aren't well defined.
Private companies only become monopolies if they are efficient (aka producing more efficient than their competitors, or if entry barriers are too costly etc.).

Anyway lets distinct between 2 kind of government "companies".
- Public Services (libraries).
- COmpanies where the government has 50% + shareholder rights.

I hope you can agree that public services are inefficient (?).

When the governement has 50% + shareholder rights the companies can keep running deficits for a long time. Its operations can have a negative NPV and not being shut down (maybe it will get shut down eventually but thats not the point).
Every time negative NPV operations are not shut down wealth is destroyed.
When private companies have negative NPV a liquidiation of the company will typically be made.

The Coarse theorem shows that if there a lot people involved and there are high transaction costs, government intervention can increase societies benefit.
The thing about monopolies is not that they are an monopoly but they can abuse that monopoly power. We all know the famous case of Microsoft stiffling innovation by shutting down Netscape. Every court around the world recognised that as a prime example of abusing market/monopoly power.

I agree that public goods, such as a libraries are inefficient (typically overproduced). This is caused by the political market place, where every voter is rationally ignorant and only know about issues that directly affects them. The effective voters will overvalue the services because they don't fully bear the costs.

For the companies, if they run deficits they should be shut down. A government does not spend its scarce resources well if its investments have negative returns. Again note that, with public goods a company can produce private losses while producing a net benefit. If the public good problem occurs (people not paying for the benefits they enjoy, because of the absence of an incentive to pay for it) then it can be contributing to society even though the losses.
It must be admitted that it can be very hard in practical matters to find out for how much 'society' values that public good. :D
Flamingo777
Profile Joined October 2010
United States1190 Posts
February 09 2012 23:16 GMT
#1230
On February 09 2012 09:28 Skilledblob wrote:


the problem is there are no greece goods. So if you cant sell anything it doesnt matter how worthless your currency is.

Come to think of it, other than perhaps overpriced olive oils (but I think that's mostly Italy), I really can't think of any product I've bought that's been "Made in Greece".
aqui
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Germany1023 Posts
February 09 2012 23:21 GMT
#1231
On February 10 2012 08:16 Flamingo777 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 09 2012 09:28 Skilledblob wrote:


the problem is there are no greece goods. So if you cant sell anything it doesnt matter how worthless your currency is.

Come to think of it, other than perhaps overpriced olive oils (but I think that's mostly Italy), I really can't think of any product I've bought that's been "Made in Greece".

But you probably have bought a lot that has been brought to you by greeks! after Japan they got the second largest trading fleet in the world.
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
February 09 2012 23:54 GMT
#1232
On February 10 2012 04:27 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2012 03:15 WhiteDog wrote:
On February 10 2012 01:05 Hider wrote:
On February 10 2012 01:01 Trollk wrote:
On February 10 2012 00:57 Hider wrote:
Article regardign the myths of the great depression:
http://mises.org/daily/1623

Please no more mentions of the great depressions as a time of austerity.

No offense mate, but if I linked a work of Keynes to state my point that conflicts with yours, then you wouldn't accept it either.


Ive read much keynesian (nonsense). But facts are facts. Just take that article for the facts.


Private investment. Investment and consumption is the same in the short term (you are spending money, in the short term you don't care about the efficiency of the spendings).


I think someone has made you very confused :O.
Where have you read about this.

Seriously man? It's basic macroeconomics. The efficiency of investment is a question of GPD, or economical growth. If you only consider the short run (and since we are talking about economical crisis, it is the case), then it's all a question of what is effectively used in the economy and what is not - the savings on one side and the rest.It's the basic opposition between the classicalexcept malthus and marx (using Say's law because in god they trust) and the keynesian approach.

Also, the article you linked does not shows facts except that there was still unemployment in 1939. The rest is just some economists saying "if those policies would not have existed, there would not have been any unemployment in 1939".
Your text is so full of shit btw :


It actually mentions the politics (non-laizzesfaire) of Roosevelt. They were analyzed by keynesians economists. I never actually said that article prooved anything except that the great depression wasn't the fail of free markets. So take it for the facts, and ignore your bias (seirsouly dude, i never recommended any book. check what i wrote lol, and now your reviewing a book which mentions fallacies that has no relevance to anything in this debate).

Investment = Consumption short-term doesn't make any sense. What you may have wanted to say was that consumptions drives investments (?). But why should they be equal short-term?

And why is that even relevant? If Greece is spending more than what they can get in from revenues, how can more investments help them? Who should finance those investments?

Investments can come from 2 sources. IN a free market investmenings comes from savings. In a manipulated market, investmentings can come from "printed money". What is the solution? And investments are mostly seen as a long-term cure, if greeces problems are short term (?), why would increased investments help them to finance their debt?

Do you read your own quote ? You quoted an article based on a book that is suposed to prove that the capitalism "saved" america and that every time the state tried to act economically it failed. (here http://mises.org/daily/1623)
So I showed you that this article, an article written by the same guy that write that book, is full of mistakes. Don't be biased man, read and acknowledge truth.

When I say investment and consumption are the same in the short term is pretty clear. I will explain it to you. In the keynesian theory, the capital within the economy is divided in two things : the money that is currently used (investment / consumption / etc.) and the money that is sleeping (hoardings). It is actually because of that that Keynes is denying Say's law.
So, aside from the all keynesian / classical argument, the idea is that when the overall economical system is in a difficult spot because of hoardings of all sorts (high concentration of the capital, which is the case nowadays) the state becomes the only way for the economical system to go on.

I don't care wheither investment is different from consumption : they are both demand.

I will not respond again because it's too tiring to write that kind of thing in english.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
paralleluniverse
Profile Joined July 2010
4065 Posts
February 10 2012 12:37 GMT
#1233
On February 09 2012 23:21 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 09 2012 09:51 Sub40APM wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:49 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:37 Skilledblob wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:31 Probulous wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:28 Skilledblob wrote:
On February 09 2012 08:38 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 08:05 vetinari wrote:
On February 09 2012 07:58 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 07:55 vetinari wrote:
Greece will have to default and leave the euro. Its going to be chaos for them, but staying in the euro is economic suicide, because austerity during a recession is unbelievably retarded.


If labour markets were very flexible they could continue staying in the euro. But since the labour markets aren't able to accept that wages need to be lower, and some people need to befired, the country would benefit from a devalulation of the currency.

So while austerity is the solution to the problem of too much spending, the crises will be prolonged when unions has too much power, and government insitutions interfer with the market.


Greece's problem isn't too much spending, its too little spending. Too much spending is when you have full employment and inflation increasing. This is why entering the euro is such a dumb idea: because a nation sovereign in its currency has the ability to spend however much it needs to maintain full employment indefinitely.


How did greece ever get into this mess? By spending too much when times were good? But according to that logic they should never experiment a contracticing GDP? Cus they spend a lot of money?



Greece has these problems now because their government is crap. Rampant tax fraud and an economy that was largely tourism based. This could only lead to desaster when the harsh years in other countries started and not as many tourists were coming anymore.


If it is so obvious now, why were they let into the euro in the first place? It must have been clear that having access to cheaper credit would not stop this behaviour even if there were so called penalties for it. A far more important question is how will this be prevented in the future. I have yet to hear a decent explanation aside from a central fiscal policy.


greece got into the Euro zone because they faked their records. That's really all there is to it.

What Greece has to do is get it's fiscal politics in order. I cant think of anything more. The greece industry is hardly exsisting, most of it's money comes from tourism. But through entering the Euro zone and probably out of greed too, vacations in greece became really expensive compared to maybe ten years ago. So this means they destroyed lots of their own tourism income through too high prices. This led to tourists going to Turkey instead of Greece.

On February 09 2012 09:34 Hider wrote:

Ye thats spending too much money (relative to income). With flexible labor markets wages would fall when tourism decreases. This is what they are supposed to do.


I dont see how that's related to spending too much money at all. Anad your so called "flexible markets" would only achieve one thing and that is destroy the inland demand for products. Less wages mean less sold goods, means less taxes, means less government jobs ( something greece relys on ), this starts a chain reaction that destroys your inland demand.




Keynesians (mistakenly) think that this chain reaction is bad and that it will last forever.
No they dont. Keynes, and Keynesians are pretty clear that one way out of a crisis is to wait long enough for a deflationary depression to be so severe that prices are in fact reset eventually. What Keynesians are about is avoiding those 5-10 years of defletionary depression and an economic trend where "new" full employment is higher than the previous trend line.


Your right sorry. I misrepresented your view. But something I don't get is, why 5-10 years? Do keynesians have any empircal proof that it takes that long with laizzes-faire politics (and no great depression was no laizzes-faire).


Your faith in Laissez-faire has reached levels surpassing religious fundamentalism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stiglitz#Information_asymmetry
followZeRoX
Profile Joined March 2011
Serbia1449 Posts
February 10 2012 12:42 GMT
#1234
On February 10 2012 21:37 paralleluniverse wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 09 2012 23:21 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:51 Sub40APM wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:49 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:37 Skilledblob wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:31 Probulous wrote:
On February 09 2012 09:28 Skilledblob wrote:
On February 09 2012 08:38 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 08:05 vetinari wrote:
On February 09 2012 07:58 Hider wrote:
[quote]

If labour markets were very flexible they could continue staying in the euro. But since the labour markets aren't able to accept that wages need to be lower, and some people need to befired, the country would benefit from a devalulation of the currency.

So while austerity is the solution to the problem of too much spending, the crises will be prolonged when unions has too much power, and government insitutions interfer with the market.


Greece's problem isn't too much spending, its too little spending. Too much spending is when you have full employment and inflation increasing. This is why entering the euro is such a dumb idea: because a nation sovereign in its currency has the ability to spend however much it needs to maintain full employment indefinitely.


How did greece ever get into this mess? By spending too much when times were good? But according to that logic they should never experiment a contracticing GDP? Cus they spend a lot of money?



Greece has these problems now because their government is crap. Rampant tax fraud and an economy that was largely tourism based. This could only lead to desaster when the harsh years in other countries started and not as many tourists were coming anymore.


If it is so obvious now, why were they let into the euro in the first place? It must have been clear that having access to cheaper credit would not stop this behaviour even if there were so called penalties for it. A far more important question is how will this be prevented in the future. I have yet to hear a decent explanation aside from a central fiscal policy.


greece got into the Euro zone because they faked their records. That's really all there is to it.

What Greece has to do is get it's fiscal politics in order. I cant think of anything more. The greece industry is hardly exsisting, most of it's money comes from tourism. But through entering the Euro zone and probably out of greed too, vacations in greece became really expensive compared to maybe ten years ago. So this means they destroyed lots of their own tourism income through too high prices. This led to tourists going to Turkey instead of Greece.

On February 09 2012 09:34 Hider wrote:

Ye thats spending too much money (relative to income). With flexible labor markets wages would fall when tourism decreases. This is what they are supposed to do.


I dont see how that's related to spending too much money at all. Anad your so called "flexible markets" would only achieve one thing and that is destroy the inland demand for products. Less wages mean less sold goods, means less taxes, means less government jobs ( something greece relys on ), this starts a chain reaction that destroys your inland demand.




Keynesians (mistakenly) think that this chain reaction is bad and that it will last forever.
No they dont. Keynes, and Keynesians are pretty clear that one way out of a crisis is to wait long enough for a deflationary depression to be so severe that prices are in fact reset eventually. What Keynesians are about is avoiding those 5-10 years of defletionary depression and an economic trend where "new" full employment is higher than the previous trend line.


Your right sorry. I misrepresented your view. But something I don't get is, why 5-10 years? Do keynesians have any empircal proof that it takes that long with laizzes-faire politics (and no great depression was no laizzes-faire).


Your faith in Laissez-faire has reached levels surpassing religious fundamentalism.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stiglitz#Information_asymmetry


Exactly Laissez-faire is unexistable. But I dont want to read topic where OP is saying that Soros is serious.
paralleluniverse
Profile Joined July 2010
4065 Posts
February 10 2012 12:43 GMT
#1235
On February 10 2012 00:20 Hider wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 10 2012 00:07 Trollk wrote:
On February 09 2012 08:35 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 08:19 Trollk wrote:
On February 09 2012 07:58 Hider wrote:
On February 09 2012 07:55 vetinari wrote:
Greece will have to default and leave the euro. Its going to be chaos for them, but staying in the euro is economic suicide, because austerity during a recession is unbelievably retarded.


If labour markets were very flexible they could continue staying in the euro. But since the labour markets aren't able to accept that wages need to be lower, and some people need to befired, the country would benefit from a devalulation of the currency.

So while austerity is the solution to the problem of too much spending, the crises will be prolonged when unions has too much power, and government insitutions interfer with the market.

Outdated and caught up by reality.
This New-Classical point of view has been tried often, failed, tried again and failed again. First time where it was shown that it did not work at non-full employment was during the Great Depression. The President of the USA asked these economists what the solution was, and its Quoted was their advice. The unions were broken (what automaticly occurs in times of duress. People leave unions for personal certainty) and still there was depression. Demand for labor didn't suddenly peaked as these economists suggested because of the price drop. No, because there wasn't any aggregate demand for products and thus no need for hiring new workers to satisfy aggregate demand. The problem was then and it is still today (for the weak state of the current economy, not the europroblem specific) is that worldwide aggregate demand < worldwide supply. And as long as this is the case, there will not be a revival of the world economy. Lowering wages and decreasing public spending will only make our times even harder.

What the people who argue for decreasing public spending often forget, is the simply the difference between a household and a government. If a household is in financial trouble, it should reduce spending till the point where revenues >= spenditures. Applying this logic to the governement fails because government spending affets general income. If 1 household decreases spending then the economy wouldn't suffer very much and would stay more or less the same. For a government, whos spending often combine to 30+% of the GDP this is NOT the case.
Decreasing expenditures would decrease their incomes and the general state of the economy. Making everybody worse off then they were before.


Your rewriting history. The Great Depression was a big government experiment. Maybe Hoover wasn't the favourite politican of Keynes, but this certainly wasn't a refusal of Says law.

Problem with the politics of Hoover and Roosvelt was that they didn't let prices fall. This is how a crisis is solved. When prices are too high, they ought to go down. Its really that simple. There is not magic cure. You cant make the economy sound by increasing demand at procucts which are too high priced. Savings are needed.

We had this discssuion at the republician thread. You can look it up if you have time. The problem of the keynesian way of thinking is that they for some reason think that the bubble economy is sound. That prices aren't too high and that some people don't need to get fired. You just need to increase spending becasue that increases aggreate numbers. But that only prolongs the crisis.

Btw your example is actually wrong even according to keynesian logic. A household spending change has a multiplicator effect as well. What you might have wanted to imply was that government can idebt it self much more as it can always increase revenues (taxes) to get rid of the debt. Households can't do that.

Im rewriting? Your...
Ignoring the causes for the Great Depression (for which I haven't studied sufficiently to somehow decent opnion), one cannot dispute the fact that the massive government spending, caused by the war, ended the depression. WW2 saved the USA from their Depression.

Thanks for the information on the discussion in the republician thread though. I will surely look it up.


Your point was that austerity was the reason why the Great Depression lasted so long. That was definitely a rewriting a history as both Roosevelt and Hoover were big spenders (compared to the norm back then).

What got us out of the great depression is another discussion. But wasing ressources on war was definitely not the what did it.

If wars could actually was good for the economy why not do the following every time we have a ression:
1) Hire people to create a hole in the ground.
2) Hire people to fill it.

Repeat proces until economy is fixed...


On January 30 2012 07:55 AcuWill wrote:
Show nested quote +
On January 30 2012 07:47 SerpentFlame wrote:
On January 30 2012 07:42 Hider wrote:
On January 30 2012 07:23 paralleluniverse wrote:
On January 29 2012 23:02 Hider wrote:

Paraleluniverse:
"Jobs create by stimulus has more value than no jobs at all.



I honestly don't understand why you keep repeating this, as you haven't even tried dismiss the problem of "aggregate sizes". Some how you still think 900 haircutters creates wealth, when the society only needs 500.

Your example is completely divorced from reality.

In reality, the government can borrow at negative real interest rates (i.e. inflation is higher than the rate government needs to repay on debt). In reality, there is idle resources, people sitting around doing nothing and wanting to work.

Society needs less teachers? Less investments in infrastructure? Less investments in research? Less manufacturing?

You're argument is that unemployment is good, and that it's good for the economy that resources are not put to use.


Glad for your answer:

1) The rate of interest rates doesn't make the example unrealistic (you can assume that government could borrow money for free to make the fiscal policiy. Wouldn't really change the point I am trying to make with the problem of aggregate numbers.

2) I actually assumed there were idle ressoruces (50 people unemployed in my example. 25 of them got a job becasue of fiscal policy).

3) I only used 2 different industries to make the example less complicated. Adding 10 more industrys wouldn't change the principle. Too many people still work in the haircut industry and need to be fired and then employed to the other industries before the economy gets healthy.

4) As I somehwat understand your logic you agree with me that the ratio needs to be 500/500 (agree?), but your convinced that fiscal policiy makes more people be employed in the machine industry.

But how? Where do these people come from? According to my logic they should come from the haircut industry (where they get fired).
Where should they come from according to your logic? (The unemployed?). But if they are to build this bridge, obv. there will be less people for the machine sector ti hire. And because aggregate spendings increases (compared to if there were 0 fiscal policies) the haircut indsutry can afford to slow down the "firing rate" (agree?).

And this means (according to my logic), that it will take more time before we get to the 500/500 ratio, and until then the economy will never be healthy. It will be in a constant recession (or perhaps it will just has indebted it self before we get there).




You are definitely confusing microeconomics with macroeconomics. Fiscal policy is counterproductive on the microeconomic scale. Nobody disputes this.
Now when society has too many haircutters not because people don't want haircuts, but because they're too poor to buy haircuts because they don't have jobs that they otherwise would have outside a slump, it makes perfect sense to fiscally stimulate both the haircut industry and the jobs of people who would buy haircuts.
The people to go into the industry come out of hte unemployed. There will be fewer people for the machine sector to hire. So? Suppose the machine sector hires 1 person per month and 500 are unemployed. Then if the haircut sector hires 3 per month, you have a net job increase even if the machine sector stops hiring at all. The more likely secnario is that the machine sector still has a pool of 497 to draw from and will still hire if there's an opportunity.

As for whether government can help get out of a slump, the answer is a resounding yes. The US government pumped so much aggregate demand that it turned into a near-command economy in the Second World War, and the Great Depression ended. It is not a matter of debate that government demand can end depressions. The better question is how (and how much).

The concept that the US government ended the Great Depression has been debunked time and again. Actually, if you look into it, you will find that the Depression was extended by the government intercession.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_public_debt

[image loading]

And here's the text accompanying it:

Social programs enacted during the Great Depression and the buildup and involvement in World War II during the F.D. Roosevelt and Truman presidencies in the 1930s and 1940s caused the largest increase – a sixteenfold increase in the gross public debt from $16 billion in 1930 to $260 billion in 1950. When Roosevelt took office in 1933, the national debt was almost $20 billion; a sum equal to 20 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). During its first term, the Roosevelt administration ran large annual deficits between 2 and 5 percent of GDP. By 1936, the national debt had increased to $33.7 billion or approximately 40 percent of GDP.[2] Gross debt relative to GDP rose to over 100% of GDP to pay for the mobilization before and during World War II.

The debt burden fell rapidly after the end of World War II, as the US and the rest of the world experienced a post-war economic expansion. However, growth rates in the western countries began to slow in the mid-1960's.

That's the biggest government stimulus in the history of the world.

That's the largest debt level that the US has ever had, yet it didn't burden future generations with debt so high they couldn't pay back. Instead, it coincided with a massive increase in GDP and living standards.
zatic
Profile Blog Joined September 2007
Zurich15329 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-10 12:44:35
February 10 2012 12:44 GMT
#1236
Can you guys please keep this to The European Debt Crisis and the Euro, and not discuss economic fundamentals and off topic things please?
ModeratorI know Teamliquid is known as a massive building
Gaga
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany433 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-10 12:52:53
February 10 2012 12:47 GMT
#1237
our existing kapitalism is in my view is as flawed and different from the ideal as was/is existing communism.

In communism they say the people(worker) owns everything in truth its dicatorship.

In Kapitalism they say everything is run by the free market while in truth our money (the heart of kaptialism) is everything but certainly not ruled by an free market. The supply of our money is controlled by central banks... and by it our whole economy is anything but "free". True free market is nonexisting today. Just as the Land was never in the hands of the people in communism.

paralleluniverse
Profile Joined July 2010
4065 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-02-10 12:50:36
February 10 2012 12:49 GMT
#1238
On February 10 2012 21:44 zatic wrote:
Can you guys please keep this to The European Debt Crisis and the Euro, and not discuss economic fundamentals and off topic things please?

In today's news, Greece's government has finally agreed to deep spending cuts and austerity, the EU is demanding more cuts, and there are protests and riots on the streets.

What's new?
Trollk
Profile Joined September 2011
Belgium93 Posts
February 10 2012 13:52 GMT
#1239
On February 10 2012 21:44 zatic wrote:
Can you guys please keep this to The European Debt Crisis and the Euro, and not discuss economic fundamentals and off topic things please?

Sorry we derailed. But discussing the Greece Crisis quickly turns to how to solve it and thats where the differences in views on economic fundamentals pop up.
Ryuhou)aS(
Profile Blog Joined March 2008
United States1174 Posts
February 10 2012 14:07 GMT
#1240
I've heard the Greece's government employs some number over 50% of the greek people. I was just wondering, how nobody else noticed that taxes of the minority (in this case Greek citizens NOT employed by the government) pay the paychecks of the majority. ..It just doesn't make any sense, the constant and neverending build up of government, and I think it's probably what had the most to do with the Greek economy crashing.
BW. There will always be a special place in my heart for the game I spent 10 years to be mediocre at.
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