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The European Debt Crisis and the Euro - Page 139

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{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
August 12 2013 03:43 GMT
#2761
Which brings on conflict, slowly but surely, it is starting to rear it's ugly head in Europe.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 17 2013 05:32 GMT
#2762
Greece was hit by a new wave of strikes on Monday as public employees protested a massive redeployment plan which is an integral part of the debt-laden country's obligations to its creditors.

Secondary school teachers kicked off a week of walkouts, with students attending classes on a severely reduced schedule due to the strike launched by Greek education union OLME.

"No to extended leave, redundancies and mandatory transfers," read a sign tacked onto the closed door of a high school in Athens' well-to-do Kolonaki neighbourhood.

State school teachers will gather from midday in Athens to attend protests, along with university staff who will also force shutdowns at higher education establishments this week.

Staff in unemployment benefit offices will also leave them empty to join the protests, with hospital doctors joining the strikes from Tuesday to Friday.

As part of the controversial redeployment plan in the country reeling from six years of recession, civil servants have to accept new posts or spend eight months on reduced salaries as alternative posts are found, with the risk of losing their jobs altogether.

Greece has agreed to redeploy 12,500 civil servants by the end of September as part of a general restructuring of its public sector, in return for the next instalment of its EU-IMF rescue loans.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
Velr
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
Switzerland10811 Posts
September 17 2013 06:11 GMT
#2763
On August 12 2013 12:02 aksfjh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 12 2013 11:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:
Unemployment in Greece rose to a new record high of 27.6 per cent in May, leaving almost two thirds of young people without a job, the Hellenic Statistics Authority said Thursday.

The jobless rate rose from 27 per cent in April and 23.8 per cent in May last year. Young people were by far the worst affected, with unemployment among job-seekers aged 15 to 24 standing at 64.9 per cent.

Greece has been depending on funds from international rescue loans since May 2010, after years of profligate spending and fiscal mismanagement left it with a massive budget deficit.

In return, successive governments have imposed stringent austerity measures, including tax hikes and salary and pension cuts that have caused the economy to contract. The country is currently in the sixth year of a deep recession.


Source

So, this brings up a very valid and troubling thought. What are these young people going to do? At some point, I'm sure many of them will try to emigrate into other EU countries, which will no doubt put extra strain on those countries. At the same time, it will artificially inflate the issue of "aging population," essentially delivering yet another blow to their budget. I just don't see how any of this can turn out better for Greece for the next 25 years.



At some point?
Whoever can is allready leaving Greece and Spain. The Irish also immediatly lost population when they got hit (but they seem to be kinda used to leaving their country ).
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-17 17:09:07
September 17 2013 16:49 GMT
#2764
Documentary about the euro and the german elections on dutch tv yesterday.
Soros, an american economic analist and a german market analist gave their opinnions.
They did some calculations and according to thoose:

Greece needs to raise its labour productivity with 100% to be competitive or
Euro/dollar needs to go to 0.30 (now 1.30) for greece to become competitive.
If euro would go to 0.30 then inflation in germany will soar in 5 years, effectively whiping out 70% of the purchase power of the german safings.

Looks like a lost case though they where probably a bit to pessimistic.
Think after german election they will eventually find some middle road, or the northern countrys should leave the euro as soros suggested.

http://www.uitzendinggemist.nl/afleveringen/1366104

Quiet a bit is in dutch but soros and the american analist are in english, the german market analist is in german.
All with dutch subtitles.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-17 20:23:14
September 17 2013 20:19 GMT
#2765
On September 18 2013 01:49 Rassy wrote:
Documentary about the euro and the german elections on dutch tv yesterday.
Soros, an american economic analist and a german market analist gave their opinnions.
They did some calculations and according to thoose:

Greece needs to raise its labour productivity with 100% to be competitive or
Euro/dollar needs to go to 0.30 (now 1.30) for greece to become competitive.
If euro would go to 0.30 then inflation in germany will soar in 5 years, effectively whiping out 70% of the purchase power of the german safings.

Looks like a lost case though they where probably a bit to pessimistic.
Think after german election they will eventually find some middle road, or the northern countrys should leave the euro as soros suggested.

http://www.uitzendinggemist.nl/afleveringen/1366104

Quiet a bit is in dutch but soros and the american analist are in english, the german market analist is in german.
All with dutch subtitles.

And the projections from EC (here with http://www.cei.gov.cn/doc/sjhwsd/2013061820311.pdf]JP Morgans assessments) is stating an improvement for Greece where the economy is only projected to contract the rest of this year and actually improve already next year! As the assessment states it is too optimistic, but with the improvements on the con-factors, there is something abrew in Greece and I do not foresee Greece getting expelled over a new loan, as long as things are actually looking as much up as they seem to be. I really do not see Greece getting out of the Euro for at least the next 2 years. If EC can in anyway defend even a slightly worse projection, with an overall turning point of 2015, there is no reason for Merkozy and the troika to face the prospect of a default and therefore a risk of major consequences
Repeat before me
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 13:59:58
September 18 2013 13:56 GMT
#2766
Ty for link, agree that the prospects seem to improve but they came from a verry deep hole,am still a bit woried that the structural imbalance in competitiveness and labour productivity will remain a problem for wich there is basicly no good solution (besides splitting the zone so the southern countrys can devaluate their currency)
Atm its a "good news show" , not sure if that is realistic.
It could also have to do with the upcoming german elections. If Afd would win in germany it would be a disaster for the eurozone and every bit of "good news" is welcome atm. Personally i expect the eurocrisis to become worse again in the months after the german election, to then be finally solved end this year and start 2014 with massive QE, eurobonds and a banking union. (wich wont be a pleasure for the people with safings in the northern countrys)
Gaga
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany433 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 17:47:10
September 18 2013 17:29 GMT
#2767
How is massive QE and eurobonds solving the crisis ?

Look at the US and Japan they are a little bit further down the road with those kinds of "solutions" that are really just kicking the can down the road a little bit.

Stagflation Japan style is the least worse outcome of those "solutions".

btw.

smart man talking about this:

Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 17:59:54
September 18 2013 17:54 GMT
#2768
Oh i completely agree with you, though i do not agree that japan had stagflation. They had stagnation with verry low inflation/small deflation up till recently, and i do think that is the least worst outcome as well. But even japan has now adopted QE as a "solution" for their "problems"
Am not saying i favor this "solution" at all, i just think that its the way events will unfold.
Europe will become more like the usa (unfortunatly imo), difference between rich and poor will grow and we will get a harder form of capitalism.
Maybe its inevitable in the end and neccesary to stay competitive, due to the increasing competition worldwide. I can not realy judge this but i surely dont like it.
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
September 18 2013 17:57 GMT
#2769
^have fun with that! Enjoy your 'freedom'
shikata ga nai
Gaga
Profile Joined September 2010
Germany433 Posts
September 18 2013 19:01 GMT
#2770
On September 19 2013 02:54 Rassy wrote:
Oh i completely agree with you, though i do not agree that japan had stagflation. They had stagnation with verry low inflation/small deflation up till recently, and i do think that is the least worst outcome as well. But even japan has now adopted QE as a "solution" for their "problems"
Am not saying i favor this "solution" at all, i just think that its the way events will unfold.
Europe will become more like the usa (unfortunatly imo), difference between rich and poor will grow and we will get a harder form of capitalism.
Maybe its inevitable in the end and neccesary to stay competitive, due to the increasing competition worldwide. I can not realy judge this but i surely dont like it.



yeah ... i agree, its probably thats what will happen.

But i fear what will be at the end of this.
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 19:53:47
September 18 2013 19:50 GMT
#2771
International companies with their main seat in Europe has to attract the small amount of actually proven bosses since none of the bigger companies want an unproven guy. They do that by increasing salaries to better attract good american bosses, which leads to american companies increasing their top boss wages, which leads to... Therefore we are/were seeing a skyrocketing in pays for the highest bosses.
Meanwhile countries in particularly Europe is fighting to stay competitive with trading partners. Therefore the countries lower taxes (by cutting welfare for particularly the lowest income groups) and deregulate. Admittedly there is a need for that to some extend, but since lower taxes and deregulation are the specialty of industry interests it has made their lobbyists incredibly powerful and they obviously do not want to stop at becoming just competitive...

USAs special interest driven politics is indeed next stop with the current course!
Repeat before me
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
September 18 2013 20:06 GMT
#2772
On September 19 2013 04:50 radiatoren wrote:
International companies with their main seat in Europe has to attract the small amount of actually proven bosses since none of the bigger companies want an unproven guy. They do that by increasing salaries to better attract good american bosses, which leads to american companies increasing their top boss wages, which leads to... Therefore we are/were seeing a skyrocketing in pays for the highest bosses.

We don't really need those rich ass dude who can't manage shit and get paid too much.
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
September 18 2013 20:09 GMT
#2773
when you figure out how to get rid of them, please let me know
shikata ga nai
WhiteDog
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
France8650 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-18 20:19:21
September 18 2013 20:19 GMT
#2774
On September 19 2013 05:09 sam!zdat wrote:
when you figure out how to get rid of them, please let me know

I might have some solutions ...
"every time WhiteDog overuses the word "seriously" in a comment I can make an observation on his fragile emotional state." MoltkeWarding
sam!zdat
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
United States5559 Posts
September 18 2013 20:29 GMT
#2775
not so loud comrade they're listening remember <3
shikata ga nai
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
September 20 2013 00:26 GMT
#2776
So Greek Communists and Anarchists have declared war on the Golden Dawn after one of their members was murdered. Yes the Euro in 2014 will be very stable.
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
radiatoren
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
Denmark1907 Posts
September 20 2013 07:25 GMT
#2777
On September 19 2013 05:06 WhiteDog wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 19 2013 04:50 radiatoren wrote:
International companies with their main seat in Europe has to attract the small amount of actually proven bosses since none of the bigger companies want an unproven guy. They do that by increasing salaries to better attract good american bosses, which leads to american companies increasing their top boss wages, which leads to... Therefore we are/were seeing a skyrocketing in pays for the highest bosses.

We don't really need those rich ass dude who can't manage shit and get paid too much.

My solution would have been to reduce burdens on SMEs to increase the talent pool, but your solution might work too!
Repeat before me
Discarder
Profile Joined July 2012
Philippines411 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-20 08:30:12
September 20 2013 08:28 GMT
#2778
Analysis/Prediction on the EURO

Analyzing the Monthly Chart EUR vs USD:

Versus Dollar, the trend is bullish for 6 months.
between january and february of this year, was the highest prince achieved by euro before going down starting
february until march. Now, the rate is very close to the rate in JAN and FEB. I'm sure this rate will be taken to account
by the big banks. They will either send the rate back down or the price will remain stagnant (making small swings)


SEE CHART:
for reference: http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/
set the currency to EUR/USD
set the chart from 5 minute to monthly



For EUR versus YEN: (ALMOST THE SAME pattern, ALMOST CLOSE TO A RESPECTED HIGH PRICE)

There was a resistance for the price to go up on august and october 2009. (Notice the pinbars on top of the two candles). Notice that the exchange rate of EUR/JPY right now is very close to those resistances.

SEE CHART:
http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/live-charts/
set the currency to EUR/JPY
set the chart from 5 minute to monthly


Sorry I wasn't able to attach the charts and elaborate. If I get the time, I will upload it to imgur with a clearer explanation.

TLDR:
I think EURO will stop going up in value next month or no later
than october. The price will either stay there for awhile OR drop quickly. (low probability of continuing to go up).

Why I think this is true:
These are really powerful indications because EUR, USD and JPY are the most traded currencies. Besides
the price of EURO is too high versus USD and JPY, meaning the demand for it will start to change.













You can take the lion out of the jungle, but you can't take the jungle out of the lion
Rassy
Profile Joined August 2010
Netherlands2308 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-09-20 08:42:48
September 20 2013 08:38 GMT
#2779
Have to kinda agree with you, though i dont realy see the past 6 months as bullish for the euro/dollar its more like sideways for me as it still hasnt recoverd from the drop it made in the month before thoose 6 months.
Also expect the euro to drop, but it all depends on what europe will do after the german elections.
Maybe 1.40 is still possible but am quiet sure that within 1-2 years we will have seen a euro/dollar of 1,20 or lower, maybe even parity.
Will definatly switch some of my euros for dollars within the next month.
If germany will keep resisting though,and if usa wont end QE in 2014 then the euro could go quiet a bit higher still.
These things are verry difficult to forsee unfortunaly.
{CC}StealthBlue
Profile Blog Joined January 2003
United States41117 Posts
December 02 2013 04:50 GMT
#2780
KIEV, Ukraine (AP) — A protest by about 300,000 Ukrainians angered by their government's decision to freeze integration with the West turned violent Sunday, when a group of demonstrators besieged the president's office and police drove them back with truncheons, tear gas and flash grenades. Dozens of people were injured.

The mass rally in central Kiev defied a government ban on protests on Independence Square, in the biggest show of anger over President Viktor Yanukovych's refusal to sign a political and economic agreement with the European Union.

The protesters also were infuriated by the violent dispersal of a small, opposition rally two nights before.

While opposition leaders called for a nationwide strike and prolonged peaceful street protests to demand that the government resign, several thousand people broke away and marched to Yanukovych's nearby office.

A few hundred of them, wearing masks, threw rocks and other objects at police and attempted to break through the police lines with a front loader. After several hours of clashes, riot police used force to push them back.

Dozens of people with what appeared to be head injuries were taken away by ambulance. Several journalists, including some beaten by police, were injured in the clashes.


Source
"Smokey, this is not 'Nam, this is bowling. There are rules."
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