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Zurich15366 Posts
That chart doesn't include migration though. Ukraine has a low fertility rate coupled with very high emigration. So she is still losing people, primarily young people, at a scary rate.
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On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis
Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country.
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On December 03 2013 17:33 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country.
Bullshit. The reality is: access to EU market --> big EU companies flooding the market and killing the local business with low prices --> all the money leave the country --> the same companies paying pathetic salaries to their employees --> people emigrating to west europe looking for the promise land.
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On December 03 2013 17:42 mdb wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 17:33 Sub40APM wrote:On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country. Bullshit. The reality is: access to EU market --> big EU companies flooding the market and killing the local business with low prices --> all the money leave the country --> the same companies paying pathetic salaries to their employees --> people emigrating to west europe looking for the promise land.
You forgot one:
--> rest of western europe treating eastern european migrants like crap because they don't want them.
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On December 03 2013 17:42 mdb wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 17:33 Sub40APM wrote:On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country. Bullshit. The reality is: access to EU market --> big EU companies flooding the market and killing the local business with low prices --> all the money leave the country --> the same companies paying pathetic salaries to their employees --> people emigrating to west europe looking for the promise land.
Yes. Just like Slovakia was depopulated right? Just because you Balkan people werent able to take advantage of a giant market where labor costs are so much higher than your own that obviously EU focused businesses would prefer to move in and arbitrage the difference doesmnt mean Ukrainians wouldnt be able to. Just like the Slovaks and the Poles did it.
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On December 03 2013 18:03 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 17:42 mdb wrote:On December 03 2013 17:33 Sub40APM wrote:On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country. Bullshit. The reality is: access to EU market --> big EU companies flooding the market and killing the local business with low prices --> all the money leave the country --> the same companies paying pathetic salaries to their employees --> people emigrating to west europe looking for the promise land. You forgot one: --> rest of western europe treating eastern european migrants like crap because they don't want them.
Yeah, thats true also. Its pretty bad you know - during all these years of socialist/communist regime people were thought to be proud of their country and patriotic and suddenly only 20yrs later we are treated like 2nd hand people just because we are from Eastern Europe.
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On December 03 2013 18:03 maartendq wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 17:42 mdb wrote:On December 03 2013 17:33 Sub40APM wrote:On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country. Bullshit. The reality is: access to EU market --> big EU companies flooding the market and killing the local business with low prices --> all the money leave the country --> the same companies paying pathetic salaries to their employees --> people emigrating to west europe looking for the promise land. You forgot one: --> rest of western europe treating eastern european migrants like crap because they don't want them.
Yes there is a lot of hypocrisy to go around. But I would argue that it's on both sides. A relative of mine works in the police force and sounds like an actual racist. The real sad thing is that the crime stats are on his side -_-
On December 03 2013 12:32 Sub40APM wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 00:12 mdb wrote:
I understand all these people protesting, but EU wont bring any good for Ukraine. I really wish we (Bulgaria) could get out of this organization. Bulgarians are much better off now than they were pre-EU. You receive billions in dollars in transfers and you are allowed to work in better countries as legal residents. Ukraine could have become like Slovakia before they actually joined, a giant car factory and industrial zone where cheap Ukrainian labor could actually compete even with the Chinese.
Fully agree with this. Main problem bulgaria/romania has is that they were not able get rid of their outrageously corrupt institutions and politicians.
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On December 03 2013 09:58 SilentchiLL wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 02:47 mijagi182 wrote:On December 03 2013 00:23 Doublemint wrote:On December 03 2013 00:12 mdb wrote:
I understand all these people protesting, but EU wont bring any good for Ukraine. I really wish we (Bulgaria) could get out of this organization. I would really much appreciate it if you were to elaborate on this. I see it pretty much the other way around. Probably, what he has in mind is that EU forces dozens of stupid regulations that harm developing countries more. I think the money the EU invests in those countries makes more than up for it though, estonia (and poland) would be good examples for that.
i dont necessarily disagree but the reckoning is not a simple matter.
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The main Problem seems to be, that corruption eats much of it away. Many People don't see much benefit from the Money, what they see are "stupid rules and regulations".
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From what I understand it is a trade zone they are negotiating and a no to both Russia and EU would tank their exports given that all their neighbors are already choosing sides. They are forced to choose!
Russia controls the gas and uranium which are extremely important for Ukraine at the moment, but gas is not gonne stay valuable for too long if they ever want to upgrade their infrastructure. Apart from gas, it is relatively limited what Russia can give Ukraine increased access to that EU cannot accomodate. Also EU has vacuumcleaned the potential neighbors for trade agreements, making Ukraine that much more forced in that direction.
The reason things are going as wry as they are, is that Yanukovych does not want to lose next election and the likelyhood of him losing would increase dramatically with Tymoshenko out of prison. Since the reasons for keeping Tymoshenko imprisoned are political, EU asking for her release is natural, but is Yanukovich willing to sacrifice his political carreer to ensure a deal with EU if he can make a deal with Russia and increase his own power? The protests may be the straw breaking the camels back: If he becomes so unpopular for choosing Russia that he lose the next election, it is worthless to fight so hard for keeping Tymoshenko in prison...
Edit: Those names...
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On December 03 2013 18:25 Doublemint wrote:Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 18:03 maartendq wrote:On December 03 2013 17:42 mdb wrote:On December 03 2013 17:33 Sub40APM wrote:On December 03 2013 16:07 zatic wrote:Ukraine has problems that go far beyond those of other peripheral countries, and there is little reason to believe an association to either the EU or Russia is going to fix them. Ukraine is literally dying off. It's one of the very few countries with a falling life expectancy. And it seems everyone who can leaves. I mean look at population chart here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine#Demographic_crisis Access to the EU market ---> outsourcing creates better jobs than currently exists there --> economic growth --> Ukrainians stop being slaves in Polish sweatshop factories and end up working in their own country. Bullshit. The reality is: access to EU market --> big EU companies flooding the market and killing the local business with low prices --> all the money leave the country --> the same companies paying pathetic salaries to their employees --> people emigrating to west europe looking for the promise land. You forgot one: --> rest of western europe treating eastern european migrants like crap because they don't want them. Yes there is a lot of hypocrisy to go around. But I would argue that it's on both sides. A relative of mine works in the police force and sounds like an actual racist. The real sad thing is that the crime stats are on his side -_- Show nested quote +On December 03 2013 12:32 Sub40APM wrote:On December 03 2013 00:12 mdb wrote:
I understand all these people protesting, but EU wont bring any good for Ukraine. I really wish we (Bulgaria) could get out of this organization. Bulgarians are much better off now than they were pre-EU. You receive billions in dollars in transfers and you are allowed to work in better countries as legal residents. Ukraine could have become like Slovakia before they actually joined, a giant car factory and industrial zone where cheap Ukrainian labor could actually compete even with the Chinese. Fully agree with this. Main problem bulgaria/romania has is that they were not able get rid of their outrageously corrupt institutions and politicians.
I`m not sure where this " many bilions of eu money" came from. Since 2007 till now Bulgaria has received around 5.5 billion euro from different EU funds and the same time we are paying 600-700 milion euro per year since 2005 to the budget of EU. do the math. Not to mention that big chunk of the money from EU are for big infrastructure projects (highways etc.) which are being constructed by big german, austrian, greek etc companies. For me EU is just a new type of colonization by the west.
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The way how he talks about "colonization by the west" and being treated as second class citizens makes me doubt that he even bothered to do any research before he posted.
That aside, can any ukranians here who may have informed themselves a bit about the topic make a prediction about which effect the protests will have?
This+ Show Spoiler +On December 03 2013 19:26 radiatoren wrote:
From what I understand it is a trade zone they are negotiating and a no to both Russia and EU would tank their exports given that all their neighbors are already choosing sides. They are forced to choose!
Russia controls the gas and uranium which are extremely important for Ukraine at the moment, but gas is not gonne stay valuable for too long if they ever want to upgrade their infrastructure. Apart from gas, it is relatively limited what Russia can give Ukraine increased access to that EU cannot accomodate. Also EU has vacuumcleaned the potential neighbors for trade agreements, making Ukraine that much more forced in that direction.
The reason things are going as wry as they are, is that Yanukovych does not want to lose next election and the likelyhood of him losing would increase dramatically with Tymoshenko out of prison. Since the reasons for keeping Tymoshenko imprisoned are political, EU asking for her release is natural, but is Yanukovich willing to sacrifice his political carreer to ensure a deal with EU if he can make a deal with Russia and increase his own power? The protests may be the straw breaking the camels back: If he becomes so unpopular for choosing Russia that he lose the next election, it is worthless to fight so hard for keeping Tymoshenko in prison...
Edit: Those names...
seemed relatively insightful already, lacked any realistic predictions though (which may be impossible to make, but I'm curious).
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I think this thread has had a little bit of mission creep. Discussing the Ukrainian trade agreement has very little to do with the Euro crisis. Maybe rename the thread European Politics Megathread?
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Or you can go to the official figures that page links to:
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/figures/interactive/index_en.cfm
Switch to Operating Budget Balance, then switch to per GNI. You can then see why a few countries often finds EU a bit bothersome. Being on the negative side all 5 years there is data for.
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this poster also misses Communist era 'pride' instilled into Bulgarians so you have to take his views with a large grain of salt.
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On December 04 2013 06:20 Sub40APM wrote:this poster also misses Communist era 'pride' instilled into Bulgarians so you have to take his views with a large grain of salt.
Contrary to what you might believe, people from former bloc countries may have views that differ from each other and from your own.
Things like these are never black and white and I have heard numerous people espouse the merits of how their countries used to be. Anecdotal I know. But even an elderly German gentleman saying how things were better in the DDR.
Edit: TBH I think you misinterpreted him anyway. He means that during Communist times they were proud of their country. Now they have joined the EU and feel like they are treated like shit and lose their pride.
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On December 04 2013 09:32 3Form wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2013 06:20 Sub40APM wrote:this poster also misses Communist era 'pride' instilled into Bulgarians so you have to take his views with a large grain of salt. Contrary to what you might believe, people from former bloc countries may have views that differ from each other and from your own. Things like these are never black and white and I have heard numerous people espouse the merits of how their countries used to be. Anecdotal I know. But even an elderly German gentleman saying how things were better in the DDR. Edit: TBH I think you misinterpreted him anyway. He means that during Communist times they were proud of their country. Now they have joined the EU and feel like they are treated like shit and lose their pride.
I lived through Communists times to. No, we werent proud. We wanted food, we wanted electricity and hot water at a constant rate. The only people who were proud were the top guys who lived in a parallel universe from the rest of us and children. After the fall everyone felt like shit without any EU help, you went from being kind of poor to super poor. Blaming it on EU is one of the dumbest ideas I have ever read, on par with arguments that the CIA is building pro-western governments around great Russia.
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On December 04 2013 09:32 3Form wrote:Show nested quote +On December 04 2013 06:20 Sub40APM wrote:this poster also misses Communist era 'pride' instilled into Bulgarians so you have to take his views with a large grain of salt. Things like these are never black and white and I have heard numerous people espouse the merits of how their countries used to be. Anecdotal I know. But even an elderly German gentleman saying how things were better in the DDR.
I can't believe that you actually take them serious though, these "elderly Germans", only missed a few specific things and ignore most of the shitty reality, the past always looks better than the present, especially with pink sunglasses on.
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EPT
