|
On July 19 2013 01:27 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 01:09 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 18 2013 20:53 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 18 2013 20:01 WhiteDog wrote:On July 18 2013 11:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Greece's parliament has approved reforms making it easier to sack thousands of public sector workers, clearing the way for the receipt of a new tranche of bailout money.
Members of parliament voted 153 to 140 in favour of the most contentious parts of an austerity bill early on Thursday. The reforms will loosen rules on sacking public workers, whose jobs are currently protected by the constitution.
A total of 12,500 civil servants, including teachers and police, face reassignment or the sack by the end of the year, with a further 15,000 facing the same options next year.
The cuts will pave the way for more financial assitance from the country's "troika" of creditors - the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and European Commission - to prop up its failing economy. Source "Cut yourself an arm, and I will help you tend to your wound". It's more one of those reforms that would have been useful... a decade or more ago. The point isn't to accumulate massive inefficiencies in the first place. But, considering we're used to "fixing a problem that wasn't true during the last crisis" legislation in the States, this seems par for the course for political bodies. without these tranches they wouldn't even be able to pay wages anyway. This is more like cutting off a finger to save the arm imo. Why would you think dealing with inefficiencies a decade ago would help but not now? There needs to be a plausible place for those workers to go to find new jobs. If the Greek government is reforming and growing its private sector than reforming and cutting back its inefficient public sector is an unquestionably good move. If not than it becomes harder to justify.
I'm hoping for the former obviously
|
On July 19 2013 01:09 Flyingdutchman wrote:Show nested quote +On July 18 2013 20:53 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 18 2013 20:01 WhiteDog wrote:On July 18 2013 11:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Greece's parliament has approved reforms making it easier to sack thousands of public sector workers, clearing the way for the receipt of a new tranche of bailout money.
Members of parliament voted 153 to 140 in favour of the most contentious parts of an austerity bill early on Thursday. The reforms will loosen rules on sacking public workers, whose jobs are currently protected by the constitution.
A total of 12,500 civil servants, including teachers and police, face reassignment or the sack by the end of the year, with a further 15,000 facing the same options next year.
The cuts will pave the way for more financial assitance from the country's "troika" of creditors - the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and European Commission - to prop up its failing economy. Source "Cut yourself an arm, and I will help you tend to your wound". It's more one of those reforms that would have been useful... a decade or more ago. The point isn't to accumulate massive inefficiencies in the first place. But, considering we're used to "fixing a problem that wasn't true during the last crisis" legislation in the States, this seems par for the course for political bodies. without these tranches they wouldn't even be able to pay wages anyway. This is more like cutting off a finger to save the arm imo. Why would you think dealing with inefficiencies a decade ago would help but not now?
Dealing with the inefficiencies a decade ago would have brought them to light a lot sooner, the removal of the jobs could have been absorbed and, given the stories about graft in the Greek economy, it likely would have been a net government revenue to have removed even more potential for graft.
But now? The "benefit" is limited and wouldn't really show up for a while. The Greek public sector has simply been too big for too long, along with facilitating a general lack of good governance. Now, as pointed out, it's just more people without jobs, though the fact they were being paid with borrowed money in the first place, makes them "net" revenue irrelevant for the Government.
Greece is still in the same place it has been since this all started: they're under a currency and a set of rules that a combination of their Government, their Voters and their Economy simply can't or won't handle properly. But due to a need to prevent a Eurozone country from "defaulting", they'll be made to bleed for the foreseeable future. (They've defaulted partially on the debt already, even if no one is paying out on CDS, unless I missed a report about it)
|
On July 19 2013 09:06 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 01:09 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 18 2013 20:53 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 18 2013 20:01 WhiteDog wrote:On July 18 2013 11:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Greece's parliament has approved reforms making it easier to sack thousands of public sector workers, clearing the way for the receipt of a new tranche of bailout money.
Members of parliament voted 153 to 140 in favour of the most contentious parts of an austerity bill early on Thursday. The reforms will loosen rules on sacking public workers, whose jobs are currently protected by the constitution.
A total of 12,500 civil servants, including teachers and police, face reassignment or the sack by the end of the year, with a further 15,000 facing the same options next year.
The cuts will pave the way for more financial assitance from the country's "troika" of creditors - the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and European Commission - to prop up its failing economy. Source "Cut yourself an arm, and I will help you tend to your wound". It's more one of those reforms that would have been useful... a decade or more ago. The point isn't to accumulate massive inefficiencies in the first place. But, considering we're used to "fixing a problem that wasn't true during the last crisis" legislation in the States, this seems par for the course for political bodies. without these tranches they wouldn't even be able to pay wages anyway. This is more like cutting off a finger to save the arm imo. Why would you think dealing with inefficiencies a decade ago would help but not now? Dealing with the inefficiencies a decade ago would have brought them to light a lot sooner, the removal of the jobs could have been absorbed and, given the stories about graft in the Greek economy, it likely would have been a net government revenue to have removed even more potential for graft. But now? The "benefit" is limited and wouldn't really show up for a while. The Greek public sector has simply been too big for too long, along with facilitating a general lack of good governance. Now, as pointed out, it's just more people without jobs, though the fact they were being paid with borrowed money in the first place, makes them "net" revenue irrelevant for the Government. Greece is still in the same place it has been since this all started: they're under a currency and a set of rules that a combination of their Government, their Voters and their Economy simply can't or won't handle properly. But due to a need to prevent a Eurozone country from "defaulting", they'll be made to bleed for the foreseeable future. (They've defaulted partially on the debt already, even if no one is paying out on CDS, unless I missed a report about it)
I don't see how the dynamics of the graft involved would be different now, also, if anything, the jobs should be easier to absorb now than 3 years ago. This measure is not the only thing that has been happening reform wise, according to IMF reports the competitiveness gap has been reduced drastically. And the borrowed money thing becomes relevant if outside lenders insist on these things and the last remnants of the economy is reliant on imports.
Another reform is the restructuring of the debt, most importantly making domestic banks less exposed to government debt. If Greece defaulted two years ago so their entire banking system would have followed suit. Tax collection is also hopefully being streamlined, at this moment the burden is mostly on those earning wages and pensions and not the rich and self employed.
I've stated earlier that I'm merely reasoning within the status quo, if or when things change I'll start considering the effects of the new status quo. Given the track record of the Greek governments I don't see when they would otherwise be able to make the changes necessary. At this moment they have their hands tied by reliance on below market level interest, which is only available within the current set of rules as you put it.
|
On July 19 2013 17:15 Flyingdutchman wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 09:06 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 19 2013 01:09 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 18 2013 20:53 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 18 2013 20:01 WhiteDog wrote:On July 18 2013 11:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Greece's parliament has approved reforms making it easier to sack thousands of public sector workers, clearing the way for the receipt of a new tranche of bailout money.
Members of parliament voted 153 to 140 in favour of the most contentious parts of an austerity bill early on Thursday. The reforms will loosen rules on sacking public workers, whose jobs are currently protected by the constitution.
A total of 12,500 civil servants, including teachers and police, face reassignment or the sack by the end of the year, with a further 15,000 facing the same options next year.
The cuts will pave the way for more financial assitance from the country's "troika" of creditors - the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and European Commission - to prop up its failing economy. Source "Cut yourself an arm, and I will help you tend to your wound". It's more one of those reforms that would have been useful... a decade or more ago. The point isn't to accumulate massive inefficiencies in the first place. But, considering we're used to "fixing a problem that wasn't true during the last crisis" legislation in the States, this seems par for the course for political bodies. without these tranches they wouldn't even be able to pay wages anyway. This is more like cutting off a finger to save the arm imo. Why would you think dealing with inefficiencies a decade ago would help but not now? Dealing with the inefficiencies a decade ago would have brought them to light a lot sooner, the removal of the jobs could have been absorbed and, given the stories about graft in the Greek economy, it likely would have been a net government revenue to have removed even more potential for graft. But now? The "benefit" is limited and wouldn't really show up for a while. The Greek public sector has simply been too big for too long, along with facilitating a general lack of good governance. Now, as pointed out, it's just more people without jobs, though the fact they were being paid with borrowed money in the first place, makes them "net" revenue irrelevant for the Government. Greece is still in the same place it has been since this all started: they're under a currency and a set of rules that a combination of their Government, their Voters and their Economy simply can't or won't handle properly. But due to a need to prevent a Eurozone country from "defaulting", they'll be made to bleed for the foreseeable future. (They've defaulted partially on the debt already, even if no one is paying out on CDS, unless I missed a report about it) I don't see how the dynamics of the graft involved would be different now, also, if anything, the jobs should be easier to absorb now than 3 years ago. This measure is not the only thing that has been happening reform wise, according to IMF reports the competitiveness gap has been reduced drastically. And the borrowed money thing becomes relevant if outside lenders insist on these things and the last remnants of the economy is reliant on imports. Another reform is the restructuring of the debt, most importantly making domestic banks less exposed to government debt. If Greece defaulted two years ago so their entire banking system would have followed suit. Tax collection is also hopefully being streamlined, at this moment the burden is mostly on those earning wages and pensions and not the rich and self employed. I've stated earlier that I'm merely reasoning within the status quo, if or when things change I'll start considering the effects of the new status quo. Given the track record of the Greek governments I don't see when they would otherwise be able to make the changes necessary. At this moment they have their hands tied by reliance on below market level interest, which is only available within the current set of rules as you put it.
Graft dynamics change when power is centralized and/or people are replaced. A "smart" trimming of staff would also fire those that take more graft. But I don't want to throw the entire Greek public servant staff under the bus. At the same time, the stories are pretty legendary even here in the States, so there's more than a little reality to the stories.
All told on Greece, though, is that the country simply wasn't in a place to handle a recession. Too inefficient of an economy, too much public debt (and lying on public finances), too much graft, too much tax avoidance (which, over the years, also drove higher taxes, which drove higher avoidance), too large of a public sector spending, too much dependency on a progressive taxation and too many business stunting regulations. Which is a long way of saying "too many little choices that, when taken all together, make running a business in Greece a stupid choice". No businesses, no economy. At the "deep" level, it's complex, but at the "upper" levels it's pretty easy. This is why incentives *always* matter.
It also results in "there is no easy answers". Nothing brings back the international boom cycle we just went through, as a massive amount of it was a huge asset bubble, specifically in real estate. Those take years to unwind from. The hope is that Greece can find the right bullets to "bite", which would let them recover in the near future. If they don't, well, we get to see the return of Fascism to Europe. Won't that be unfun!
|
On July 19 2013 18:15 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 17:15 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 19 2013 09:06 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 19 2013 01:09 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 18 2013 20:53 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 18 2013 20:01 WhiteDog wrote:On July 18 2013 11:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Greece's parliament has approved reforms making it easier to sack thousands of public sector workers, clearing the way for the receipt of a new tranche of bailout money.
Members of parliament voted 153 to 140 in favour of the most contentious parts of an austerity bill early on Thursday. The reforms will loosen rules on sacking public workers, whose jobs are currently protected by the constitution.
A total of 12,500 civil servants, including teachers and police, face reassignment or the sack by the end of the year, with a further 15,000 facing the same options next year.
The cuts will pave the way for more financial assitance from the country's "troika" of creditors - the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and European Commission - to prop up its failing economy. Source "Cut yourself an arm, and I will help you tend to your wound". It's more one of those reforms that would have been useful... a decade or more ago. The point isn't to accumulate massive inefficiencies in the first place. But, considering we're used to "fixing a problem that wasn't true during the last crisis" legislation in the States, this seems par for the course for political bodies. without these tranches they wouldn't even be able to pay wages anyway. This is more like cutting off a finger to save the arm imo. Why would you think dealing with inefficiencies a decade ago would help but not now? Dealing with the inefficiencies a decade ago would have brought them to light a lot sooner, the removal of the jobs could have been absorbed and, given the stories about graft in the Greek economy, it likely would have been a net government revenue to have removed even more potential for graft. But now? The "benefit" is limited and wouldn't really show up for a while. The Greek public sector has simply been too big for too long, along with facilitating a general lack of good governance. Now, as pointed out, it's just more people without jobs, though the fact they were being paid with borrowed money in the first place, makes them "net" revenue irrelevant for the Government. Greece is still in the same place it has been since this all started: they're under a currency and a set of rules that a combination of their Government, their Voters and their Economy simply can't or won't handle properly. But due to a need to prevent a Eurozone country from "defaulting", they'll be made to bleed for the foreseeable future. (They've defaulted partially on the debt already, even if no one is paying out on CDS, unless I missed a report about it) I don't see how the dynamics of the graft involved would be different now, also, if anything, the jobs should be easier to absorb now than 3 years ago. This measure is not the only thing that has been happening reform wise, according to IMF reports the competitiveness gap has been reduced drastically. And the borrowed money thing becomes relevant if outside lenders insist on these things and the last remnants of the economy is reliant on imports. Another reform is the restructuring of the debt, most importantly making domestic banks less exposed to government debt. If Greece defaulted two years ago so their entire banking system would have followed suit. Tax collection is also hopefully being streamlined, at this moment the burden is mostly on those earning wages and pensions and not the rich and self employed. I've stated earlier that I'm merely reasoning within the status quo, if or when things change I'll start considering the effects of the new status quo. Given the track record of the Greek governments I don't see when they would otherwise be able to make the changes necessary. At this moment they have their hands tied by reliance on below market level interest, which is only available within the current set of rules as you put it. Graft dynamics change when power is centralized and/or people are replaced. A "smart" trimming of staff would also fire those that take more graft. But I don't want to throw the entire Greek public servant staff under the bus. At the same time, the stories are pretty legendary even here in the States, so there's more than a little reality to the stories. All told on Greece, though, is that the country simply wasn't in a place to handle a recession. Too inefficient of an economy, too much public debt (and lying on public finances), too much graft, too much tax avoidance (which, over the years, also drove higher taxes, which drove higher avoidance), too large of a public sector spending, too much dependency on a progressive taxation and too many business stunting regulations. Which is a long way of saying "too many little choices that, when taken all together, make running a business in Greece a stupid choice". No businesses, no economy. At the "deep" level, it's complex, but at the "upper" levels it's pretty easy. This is why incentives *always* matter. It also results in "there is no easy answers". Nothing brings back the international boom cycle we just went through, as a massive amount of it was a huge asset bubble, specifically in real estate. Those take years to unwind from. The hope is that Greece can find the right bullets to "bite", which would let them recover in the near future. If they don't, well, we get to see the return of Fascism to Europe. Won't that be unfun!
I would imagine that the 'grafty' ones might not be the first to get laid off, but hard to really say. I'm not quite sure what your stance is/was on what I said, since we seem to see the same problems and both realize quick recovery won't be a realistic option. I'd say they are currently working on all the issues you have noted, which would make recovery within the boundaries of the current situation easier, yet it will not be easy, I agree.
The fascism statement made me laugh little, since you can stretch the concept pretty wide.
|
On July 19 2013 18:15 Taf the Ghost wrote:Show nested quote +On July 19 2013 17:15 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 19 2013 09:06 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 19 2013 01:09 Flyingdutchman wrote:On July 18 2013 20:53 Taf the Ghost wrote:On July 18 2013 20:01 WhiteDog wrote:On July 18 2013 11:40 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Greece's parliament has approved reforms making it easier to sack thousands of public sector workers, clearing the way for the receipt of a new tranche of bailout money.
Members of parliament voted 153 to 140 in favour of the most contentious parts of an austerity bill early on Thursday. The reforms will loosen rules on sacking public workers, whose jobs are currently protected by the constitution.
A total of 12,500 civil servants, including teachers and police, face reassignment or the sack by the end of the year, with a further 15,000 facing the same options next year.
The cuts will pave the way for more financial assitance from the country's "troika" of creditors - the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank, and European Commission - to prop up its failing economy. Source "Cut yourself an arm, and I will help you tend to your wound". It's more one of those reforms that would have been useful... a decade or more ago. The point isn't to accumulate massive inefficiencies in the first place. But, considering we're used to "fixing a problem that wasn't true during the last crisis" legislation in the States, this seems par for the course for political bodies. without these tranches they wouldn't even be able to pay wages anyway. This is more like cutting off a finger to save the arm imo. Why would you think dealing with inefficiencies a decade ago would help but not now? Dealing with the inefficiencies a decade ago would have brought them to light a lot sooner, the removal of the jobs could have been absorbed and, given the stories about graft in the Greek economy, it likely would have been a net government revenue to have removed even more potential for graft. But now? The "benefit" is limited and wouldn't really show up for a while. The Greek public sector has simply been too big for too long, along with facilitating a general lack of good governance. Now, as pointed out, it's just more people without jobs, though the fact they were being paid with borrowed money in the first place, makes them "net" revenue irrelevant for the Government. Greece is still in the same place it has been since this all started: they're under a currency and a set of rules that a combination of their Government, their Voters and their Economy simply can't or won't handle properly. But due to a need to prevent a Eurozone country from "defaulting", they'll be made to bleed for the foreseeable future. (They've defaulted partially on the debt already, even if no one is paying out on CDS, unless I missed a report about it) I don't see how the dynamics of the graft involved would be different now, also, if anything, the jobs should be easier to absorb now than 3 years ago. This measure is not the only thing that has been happening reform wise, according to IMF reports the competitiveness gap has been reduced drastically. And the borrowed money thing becomes relevant if outside lenders insist on these things and the last remnants of the economy is reliant on imports. Another reform is the restructuring of the debt, most importantly making domestic banks less exposed to government debt. If Greece defaulted two years ago so their entire banking system would have followed suit. Tax collection is also hopefully being streamlined, at this moment the burden is mostly on those earning wages and pensions and not the rich and self employed. I've stated earlier that I'm merely reasoning within the status quo, if or when things change I'll start considering the effects of the new status quo. Given the track record of the Greek governments I don't see when they would otherwise be able to make the changes necessary. At this moment they have their hands tied by reliance on below market level interest, which is only available within the current set of rules as you put it. Graft dynamics change when power is centralized and/or people are replaced. A "smart" trimming of staff would also fire those that take more graft. But I don't want to throw the entire Greek public servant staff under the bus. At the same time, the stories are pretty legendary even here in the States, so there's more than a little reality to the stories. All told on Greece, though, is that the country simply wasn't in a place to handle a recession. Too inefficient of an economy, too much public debt (and lying on public finances), too much graft, too much tax avoidance (which, over the years, also drove higher taxes, which drove higher avoidance), too large of a public sector spending, too much dependency on a progressive taxation and too many business stunting regulations. Which is a long way of saying "too many little choices that, when taken all together, make running a business in Greece a stupid choice". No businesses, no economy. At the "deep" level, it's complex, but at the "upper" levels it's pretty easy. This is why incentives *always* matter. It also results in "there is no easy answers". Nothing brings back the international boom cycle we just went through, as a massive amount of it was a huge asset bubble, specifically in real estate. Those take years to unwind from. The hope is that Greece can find the right bullets to "bite", which would let them recover in the near future. If they don't, well, we get to see the return of Fascism to Europe. Won't that be unfun!
The problem is not that Greek economy is inefficient, it is that in the european monetary system, there are no plausible way to readjust inefficiences, because those adjustements needs (in a monetary union) some kind of redistribution of wealth from the richest to the poorest regions.
If not, the inequalities in "efficience" or competitivity just get bigger and bigger, because, the poorest region will always buy from the richest region (because the goods are better quality wise and cheaper, overall more competitive). This situation pushed the Greek to actually sold out their biggest assets (the only one that still had value) to continue buying goods from the richest state (because the Greek had good assets, in the boat industry for exemple). It was also facilitated by the fact that, since 10 years, capital is really cheap in the world (low interest rate, high saving rate in some countries with high commercial surplus such as China, countries with a weak financial system, high inequalities, no social security, so the money flowed to the developped countries such as the US, where banks proposed an outrageously high return on investment and where there are always possibilities for investment, and yes it is the mecanism that pushed the american economy to the crisis known as the sub prime crisis).
All that created a situation were it was more "efficient" (or rational) to get into debt to pursue more competitive goods from other countries than produce the goods (some of them) yourself - and build comparative advantages.
In any "normal" situation, the Greek currency would have made it impossible for them to purchase goods from the richest regions, because they would just be too expensive (in a system of floating exchange rate). The parity of the money would have dropped as Greeks continue to purchase German goods until the goods produced in Greece became competitive again - at this point, it would have been "efficient" to invest in the Greek industry. But since it's the euro, well you know what I mean.
This situation is not that problematic to begin with, but as the global economy suffered what was, for the european community, an exogene shock (the sub prime crisis) it just increased that gap and made it impossible for Greece to recover without suffering tremendously or changing the euro.
It's not the politicians that adjust or readjust competitivity, it is something that is set by an enormous number of caracteristics amongst them are the currency exchange rate. Of course politicians are needed, but the idea that you could just "fix" the Greek "inefficiences" through cutting in half the public sector and making it easier to sack people is short sighted (especially if you consider, as Krugman - source - or Stiglitz showed lately, that having a flexible labor market is a bad thing in a crisis) and economically stupid if you take into consideration the impact it has on global demand in a situation of crisis.
Understanding that the economy is a circuit is the basis of everything. You are putting way too much emphasis on the public sector and its inefficiences and refuse to see the big picture and the overall mecanism that are needed to fix the competitivity problem from Greek.
To fix the Greek crisis, you don't need to "fix" the inefficience of the Greek economy first and foremost, you need to fix its balance of trade or the money will constantly flow out (and for that, there are various solutions that are obviously better than competitive disinflation). It's like Greece is traped in a system where the only choice it can take is to accept to go down and empty itself from its value. It is not a restructuration (putting the money that you "waste" to where it is well spent), it is a liquidation that we are actually watching.
|
House prices in euro area hit seven-year low House prices in the euro area have fallen to a seven-year low, with some of the steepest declines felt in countries worst hit by the financial crisis, where a large share of household wealth is stored in property. European Central Bank figures also highlight gaping disparities between eurozone countries – partly echoing their divergent economic fates. Spain, still reeling from the bursting of a property bubble that left thousands of new dwellings uninhabited, has seen prices plunge further than the average – to 2003 levels. But Germany, where fewer people own their homes than in Spain, is still riding a surge in prices, now at their highest point in a 10-year index. Italy, regularly a source of economic concern for the bloc, has seen prices fall to the eurozone average of a seven-year low, but there are fears it has further to go. ... ![[image loading]](http://im.ft-static.com/content/images/9ed23dd2-f225-11e2-8e04-00144feabdc0.img)
Link
|
On July 25 2013 02:06 JonnyBNoHo wrote:Show nested quote +House prices in euro area hit seven-year low House prices in the euro area have fallen to a seven-year low, with some of the steepest declines felt in countries worst hit by the financial crisis, where a large share of household wealth is stored in property. European Central Bank figures also highlight gaping disparities between eurozone countries – partly echoing their divergent economic fates. Spain, still reeling from the bursting of a property bubble that left thousands of new dwellings uninhabited, has seen prices plunge further than the average – to 2003 levels. But Germany, where fewer people own their homes than in Spain, is still riding a surge in prices, now at their highest point in a 10-year index. Italy, regularly a source of economic concern for the bloc, has seen prices fall to the eurozone average of a seven-year low, but there are fears it has further to go. ... Link
Considering how over here atleast the prices are still to high I dont see this as bad news. You cant have ever increasing prizes into a bubble and then cry when it falls
|
On July 25 2013 02:31 Gorsameth wrote:Show nested quote +On July 25 2013 02:06 JonnyBNoHo wrote:House prices in euro area hit seven-year low House prices in the euro area have fallen to a seven-year low, with some of the steepest declines felt in countries worst hit by the financial crisis, where a large share of household wealth is stored in property. European Central Bank figures also highlight gaping disparities between eurozone countries – partly echoing their divergent economic fates. Spain, still reeling from the bursting of a property bubble that left thousands of new dwellings uninhabited, has seen prices plunge further than the average – to 2003 levels. But Germany, where fewer people own their homes than in Spain, is still riding a surge in prices, now at their highest point in a 10-year index. Italy, regularly a source of economic concern for the bloc, has seen prices fall to the eurozone average of a seven-year low, but there are fears it has further to go. ... Considering how over here atleast the prices are still to high I dont see this as bad news. You cant have ever increasing prizes into a bubble and then cry when it falls
The prices in Copenhagen are a lot higher than the rest of Denmark (At least for the last 25 years). Economists have recently been talking about a "local housing bubble" in Copenhagen. At the same time selling a house has become incredibly difficult legally and while it may help lower the admittedly high turnover in Copenhagen and Aarhus, the rest of the country is essentially seeing it as impossible to sell a house, no matter the price! Even though it is hard to grasp if the market has been completely screwed in the rest of Denmark or Copenhagen is bubbling, it is a bit much to pay 2.5 to 4 times the price pr. square meter of other cities in a 70 km radius, while it was less than a factor 2 in all 4 cases 15 years ago:
![[image loading]](http://www.b.dk/upload/webred/bmsandbox/uploads/2013/06/aba80729f61f0ebbca596901673631a1.jpg)
source (in danish)
HPI do not take either of the above mentioned effects into account in any substantial way, which makes it a bit less significant.
|
JP Morgan to Eurozone periphery: Tone down democracy
[..] It’s the first public document I’ve come across where the authors are frank that the problem is not just a question of fiscal rectitude and boosting competitiveness, but that there is also an excess of democracy in some European countries that needs to be trimmed.
[..]
The constitutions and political settlements in the southern periphery, put in place in the aftermath of the fall of fascism, have a number of features which appear to be unsuited to further integration in the region.
[..]
Political systems around the periphery typically display several of the following features: weak executives; weak central states relative to regions; constitutional protection of labour rights; consensus building systems which foster political clientalism; and the right to protest if unwelcome changes are made to the political status quo.
Funny how the same guys that want to 'bring democracy to Iraq' obviously want to take it from Europe first...
|
Thought it was common knowledge that the US was one of the more undemocratic country's in the west.
The unexpected part is to see someone having the balls the say it out loud.
How dare the people hold there governments accountable. How dare we compromise for the good of all, how dare we protect our workers from slavery, how dare we spread power instead of allowing 1 man or institution to bully us all.
|
On July 26 2013 04:29 lord_nibbler wrote:JP Morgan to Eurozone periphery: Tone down democracyShow nested quote +[..] It’s the first public document I’ve come across where the authors are frank that the problem is not just a question of fiscal rectitude and boosting competitiveness, but that there is also an excess of democracy in some European countries that needs to be trimmed.
[..]
The constitutions and political settlements in the southern periphery, put in place in the aftermath of the fall of fascism, have a number of features which appear to be unsuited to further integration in the region.
[..]
Political systems around the periphery typically display several of the following features: weak executives; weak central states relative to regions; constitutional protection of labour rights; consensus building systems which foster political clientalism; and the right to protest if unwelcome changes are made to the political status quo. Funny how the same guys that want to 'bring democracy to Iraq' obviously want to take it from Europe first...
Don't take JP Morgan as the "Voice of America."
|
On July 26 2013 04:44 aksfjh wrote:Show nested quote +On July 26 2013 04:29 lord_nibbler wrote:JP Morgan to Eurozone periphery: Tone down democracy[..] It’s the first public document I’ve come across where the authors are frank that the problem is not just a question of fiscal rectitude and boosting competitiveness, but that there is also an excess of democracy in some European countries that needs to be trimmed.
[..]
The constitutions and political settlements in the southern periphery, put in place in the aftermath of the fall of fascism, have a number of features which appear to be unsuited to further integration in the region.
[..]
Political systems around the periphery typically display several of the following features: weak executives; weak central states relative to regions; constitutional protection of labour rights; consensus building systems which foster political clientalism; and the right to protest if unwelcome changes are made to the political status quo. Funny how the same guys that want to 'bring democracy to Iraq' obviously want to take it from Europe first... Don't take JP Morgan as the "Voice of America."
They do have a point though :D
|
If you look at it from a corporate point of vieuw, wich jp does, then they have a point.
If you look at it from a human point of vieuw, then they dont.
Its kinda funny how the interests of corporations are so opposite to the interests of the population. You would think that they have at least a few in common, since they heavily depend on eachoter and one even creates the other but there seems to be a big gap in what they need to thrive.
What corporations want is only good for 1% of the population, the one percent that is starting and building corporations.
This is a verry important 1 percent , since in the end the actions of this 1% allow the other 99% to have a job.
And even though the 1% might think that there is no alternative for them and that the economy would completely collapse without them, the other 99% is needed as well and there should be some compromise.
|
On July 26 2013 04:29 lord_nibbler wrote:JP Morgan to Eurozone periphery: Tone down democracyShow nested quote +[..] It’s the first public document I’ve come across where the authors are frank that the problem is not just a question of fiscal rectitude and boosting competitiveness, but that there is also an excess of democracy in some European countries that needs to be trimmed.
[..]
The constitutions and political settlements in the southern periphery, put in place in the aftermath of the fall of fascism, have a number of features which appear to be unsuited to further integration in the region.
[..]
Political systems around the periphery typically display several of the following features: weak executives; weak central states relative to regions; constitutional protection of labour rights; consensus building systems which foster political clientalism; and the right to protest if unwelcome changes are made to the political status quo. Funny how the same guys that want to 'bring democracy to Iraq' obviously want to take it from Europe first...
The way these guys are formulating around "right to protest" is either intentionally asking for a police state or military regime. Wanting to reduce the right to protest is hopefully not what they meant!
Just throwing out an issue of a weak executive is scary rhetorics. The need of a "strong man" is the fascistic way of thinking and exactly what many europeans think of when "stronger executive" gets thrown out there unspecified. Fascism is not exactly the ideal of modern democracy...
The need for stronger central power is not exactly a bipartisan american philosphy either and even though I think they have some very good meat on this claim, it remains unspecified.
Clientilism is becoming more and more apparent as a way to cope with the ever-increasing amount and specificity of laws. Scandinavia is as much a victim of that apparent "shortcoming" and that is not exactly the most vulnerable area of europe. It is a bad development, but with the difficulty of changing old laws and the ease of creating new ones, it seems like something to get used to! EU regulations are a big part of the problem in that area!
|
On July 26 2013 04:29 lord_nibbler wrote:JP Morgan to Eurozone periphery: Tone down democracyShow nested quote +[..] It’s the first public document I’ve come across where the authors are frank that the problem is not just a question of fiscal rectitude and boosting competitiveness, but that there is also an excess of democracy in some European countries that needs to be trimmed.
[..]
The constitutions and political settlements in the southern periphery, put in place in the aftermath of the fall of fascism, have a number of features which appear to be unsuited to further integration in the region.
[..]
Political systems around the periphery typically display several of the following features: weak executives; weak central states relative to regions; constitutional protection of labour rights; consensus building systems which foster political clientalism; and the right to protest if unwelcome changes are made to the political status quo. Funny how the same guys that want to 'bring democracy to Iraq' obviously want to take it from Europe first...
It's just one analyst group's opinion. No one is forcing you or anyone else to agree with it.
Edit: What they wrote is pretty benign anyhow...
|
How will the debt crisis play into the coming elections in Germany? I know their position in the Eurozone and the pushes for austerity keep generating headlines in newspapers. In discussing the economic state of affairs with debt-ridden countries, I ran across allegations that some of it is being covered up in ways that can't last forever. Here's one post by an economist pointing out what's going on with securitizations and possible financial charades going on with their books
The French banks, the Spanish banks, the Portuguese banks are all engaged in an ongoing charade so they do not need to ask the EU for help. They all are taking their Real Estate loans, the properties that they have confiscated, the commercial loans that are no longer paying and they have put them into massive securitizations that are pledged at the ECB as they are given cash for the collateral. The collateral, as you may suppose, has all of the value of cents on the Dollar but they are given money at par while the ECB carries them on their books at par. It is a fraudulent scheme jam packed with money created out of nothing but it is judged to be a better plan that to have to admit to accurate financials and have the banks of Europe default all across the Continent. [...]
There will be nothing but lying until September 22, 2013 which is the date of the German elections. This is the drop dead date that I have been asked about for so long. Then, as soon as the celebration is over that Ms. Merkel is to remain in power, the world will turn on its axis. The status quo will disappear and there will be a “shock and horror” campaign as the Southern nations of Europe demand more help and Germany squirms and then refuses to provide it because it does not have the assets to do so.
source
Any truth behind his claims? Will the weeks after the election bring a precipitation of cries about the crushing debt and Germany's role or will nothing dramatic happen as a result?
|
On July 26 2013 15:35 Danglars wrote:How will the debt crisis play into the coming elections in Germany? I know their position in the Eurozone and the pushes for austerity keep generating headlines in newspapers. In discussing the economic state of affairs with debt-ridden countries, I ran across allegations that some of it is being covered up in ways that can't last forever. Here's one post by an economist pointing out what's going on with securitizations and possible financial charades going on with their books Show nested quote +The French banks, the Spanish banks, the Portuguese banks are all engaged in an ongoing charade so they do not need to ask the EU for help. They all are taking their Real Estate loans, the properties that they have confiscated, the commercial loans that are no longer paying and they have put them into massive securitizations that are pledged at the ECB as they are given cash for the collateral. The collateral, as you may suppose, has all of the value of cents on the Dollar but they are given money at par while the ECB carries them on their books at par. It is a fraudulent scheme jam packed with money created out of nothing but it is judged to be a better plan that to have to admit to accurate financials and have the banks of Europe default all across the Continent. [...]
There will be nothing but lying until September 22, 2013 which is the date of the German elections. This is the drop dead date that I have been asked about for so long. Then, as soon as the celebration is over that Ms. Merkel is to remain in power, the world will turn on its axis. The status quo will disappear and there will be a “shock and horror” campaign as the Southern nations of Europe demand more help and Germany squirms and then refuses to provide it because it does not have the assets to do so.
sourceAny truth behind his claims? Will the weeks after the election bring a precipitation of cries about the crushing debt and Germany's role or will nothing dramatic happen as a result?
I read something along these lines on the 16th, at least for Spain. I was under the impression that these assets were brought under SAREB, the spanish 'bad bank', which was basically put into place to restructure assets like the ones in the article. Nothing really secret going on: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/12/us-spain-property-badbank-idUSBRE96B07S20130712.
I think the tone of the article is a little dramatic, but I can't predict the future so who knows 
|
Unemployment in Greece rose to a new record high of 27.6 per cent in May, leaving almost two thirds of young people without a job, the Hellenic Statistics Authority said Thursday.
The jobless rate rose from 27 per cent in April and 23.8 per cent in May last year. Young people were by far the worst affected, with unemployment among job-seekers aged 15 to 24 standing at 64.9 per cent.
Greece has been depending on funds from international rescue loans since May 2010, after years of profligate spending and fiscal mismanagement left it with a massive budget deficit.
In return, successive governments have imposed stringent austerity measures, including tax hikes and salary and pension cuts that have caused the economy to contract. The country is currently in the sixth year of a deep recession.
Source
|
On August 12 2013 11:49 {CC}StealthBlue wrote:Show nested quote +Unemployment in Greece rose to a new record high of 27.6 per cent in May, leaving almost two thirds of young people without a job, the Hellenic Statistics Authority said Thursday.
The jobless rate rose from 27 per cent in April and 23.8 per cent in May last year. Young people were by far the worst affected, with unemployment among job-seekers aged 15 to 24 standing at 64.9 per cent.
Greece has been depending on funds from international rescue loans since May 2010, after years of profligate spending and fiscal mismanagement left it with a massive budget deficit.
In return, successive governments have imposed stringent austerity measures, including tax hikes and salary and pension cuts that have caused the economy to contract. The country is currently in the sixth year of a deep recession. Source
So, this brings up a very valid and troubling thought. What are these young people going to do? At some point, I'm sure many of them will try to emigrate into other EU countries, which will no doubt put extra strain on those countries. At the same time, it will artificially inflate the issue of "aging population," essentially delivering yet another blow to their budget. I just don't see how any of this can turn out better for Greece for the next 25 years.
|
|
|
|
|
|
EPT
