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On April 08 2015 22:17 Pandemona wrote:Show nested quote +On April 08 2015 22:14 Seuss wrote:
If I'd waited to buy my 3 tokens I'd have saved myself 21k gold. LOL wow xD
Yeah this is getting stupid Blizzard said they would monitor the prices and change them if they were getting sold to quickly or not quick enough. This seems a massive bug in the system so i will also be buying myself some game time tonight via gold haha. 3 Months game time for 69k err yes please.
I don't actually think it's stupid, the system is probably working as intended.
A lot of people thought the price of Tokens would skyrocket into the 100-300k range, based on the assumption that there were a lot of uber-rich players waiting around for an opportunity to dump massive amounts of gold to play the game for free. That obviously didn't happen, and the reasons why are fairly straightforward:
- In the long run it doesn't matter how much gold a player has, but how much gold income they have. If they exceed their income eventually they'll run out of gold and be unable to continue buying Tokens. Most gold-rich players will realize this from the get go and not spend more than they can afford.
- For players that play the AH gold is both a status symbol and necessary for their operations. If they dump all their gold into game time they lose both their status and their capital.
- There are far more players who don't play the AH or have huge stores of gold than do.
Now I can honestly say I didn't expect the price to start dropping. I assumed that the black market exchange rate, being fairly stable, would be an accurate indicator of where the equilibrium point was for gold supply and demand. My assumption was also obviously wrong, and I have a simple guess as to why:
- There were probably far more players not buying gold because it was black market/incredibly risky/not a part of the game's UI than I expected.
Essentially demand is significantly exceeding supply, and for reasons that shouldn't be surprising in 20/20 hindsight.
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
Yeah but i read that Blizzard were going to fix the price themselves for these tokens, or i miss read it. Here it is;
Because the Token exchange has to start somewhere, we will be setting the initial gold value of the WoW Token ourselves. The starting gold value in each region will be based on several factors, including regional in-game economies, but ultimately our goal is to select a fair and reasonable starting price. After that, the Token’s gold value will be determined dynamically based primarily on player supply and demand. Simply put, if more WoW Tokens are being listed than are being purchased, the price will automatically drift downward over time. If people are purchasing Tokens from the Auction House faster than they’re being put up for sale, then prices will go up accordingly. As a reminder, to help make sure players can trade WoW Tokens confidently, once a Token sells, the seller will receive the amount of gold they were quoted at the time they listed their Token.
So to me i read that as, if more and more are being sold the price goes up, if not many are being sold the price goes down. So what i see atm is either "none" are being sold so the price is dropping like flies, or blizzard have messed up and loads are being sold and the price is dropping on top of it lol
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Or the same thing happened with Tokens like sky golem mount. People were expecting to sell that thing for massive profit but everyone and their grandson had 4 engineers and while you did make some profit on the mounts if you sold them the night you could make the final mats to create it or next morning the price dropped really fast.
Most likely people thought they will make ridiculous amount of money, which surprise surprise didn't happen and then the price drops rapidly. We'll see in the following weeks to come where the price sets.
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It says on the text you quoted that if there's more tokens available to buy, the price goes down. So clearly a lot of people are embracing the chance to legally buy gold.
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Yeah the key phrase in the quoted text is:
After that, the Token’s gold value will be determined dynamically based primarily on player supply and demand.
So basically Blizzard set the initial price at 30k, and after the rush ended it's dropped down below 23k because the supply of tokens exceeds demand.
I wouldn't be surprised at this point if prices dropped as low as 15k.
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On April 09 2015 00:15 Pandemona wrote:Yeah the way i read it was that every WoW token put on AH at the price of 30,000 gold would go UP in value if more and more were being sold or go DOWN in gold value if none were moving. I thought that is what they meant about WoW tokens being in currency. Oh well guess i misunderstood 
Well that really is what's happening, the problem is that more are moving for real money than are moving for gold which is driving the gold price down. Seems like everyone wanted to cash in as quick as possible.
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
Oh now i get it haha im very slow on these things sorry :3
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Blizzard shouldn't really care: as long as people are buying tokens to sell them for peanuts on the AH, the tokens are clearly worthwhile. If people stop buying tokens because Chinese gold sellers are more worthwhile, even with the associated risk, then the price of the tokens on the AH will rise by itself again (free market, whoop) until it IS worth it again. And so on, until it stabilizes (at which point it will only rise slowly due to general AH inflation).
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Wouldn't surprise me one bit to see tokens drop to ~15k, which was about average price for a monthly before tokens came about.
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If price drops to 15k on EU I'll just buy 2 years of game time and be done with it haha  There is hardly any use for gold in this game so might as well save 360 euro 
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On April 09 2015 15:35 ViperPL wrote:If price drops to 15k on EU I'll just buy 2 years of game time and be done with it haha There is hardly any use for gold in this game so might as well save 360 euro
Just wish they weren't soul bound so I could pass them off to my other accounts without first having to activate them to trade them gold.
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United Kingdom20318 Posts
Yeah this is getting stupid Blizzard said they would monitor the prices and change them if they were getting sold to quickly or not quick enough.
Yea as you said above, you misread it. The blizzard system dynamically adjusts for supply and demand and on launch night it fell and stabilized at ~21k.
This seems a massive bug in the system
that's just you not realizing what the average player of 10 million subs who would buy/sell tokens values them at :D (apparently 21k/month, 1500 gold per dollar)
i am more interested to see what happens with EU today. IF blizzard sets it at the same 30k/month and people make buying/selling decisions influenced by the US data, i think it should fall much, much faster
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Oh is it coming to EU today?
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United Kingdom20318 Posts
It isn't coming to EU the day after US? D:
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Nope "We’ll announce additional regional details closer to the launch of the WoW Token in other regions.". I'd like my free game time too
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Pandemona
Charlie Sheens House51493 Posts
Yeah we had the patch as well i don't get why we don't have it either lol.
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United Kingdom31255 Posts
On April 09 2015 16:56 Pandemona wrote:
Yeah we had the patch as well i don't get why we don't have it either lol.
Probably trying to figure out how euros work (My estimate is EU will end up paying more for the WoW token)
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I would expect EU to get it next week, gives time for any bugs to be fixed.
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obviously, so that I have to pay for this month before I get to start the best F2P in the market
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EPT
