EPT0.43% chance to backflip 10x in a row when you start a sequence of jumps, my record is 7 so far
expected sequence is ~1.27 backflips in a row i think, but IDK how to statistics
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Cyro
United Kingdom20318 Posts
0.43% chance to backflip 10x in a row when you start a sequence of jumps, my record is 7 so far expected sequence is ~1.27 backflips in a row i think, but IDK how to statistics | ||
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Seuss
United States10536 Posts
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hootsushi
Germany3468 Posts
On March 04 2015 06:05 Cyro wrote: counted out 100 jumps, nelf female has ~58% chance for backflip 0.43% chance to backflip 10x in a row when you start a sequence of jumps, my record is 7 so far expected sequence is ~1.27 backflips in a row i think, but IDK how to statistics 26 spins out of 100 jumps, blizz fix blood elves. | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18090 Posts
On March 04 2015 06:05 Cyro wrote: counted out 100 jumps, nelf female has ~58% chance for backflip 0.43% chance to backflip 10x in a row when you start a sequence of jumps, my record is 7 so far expected sequence is ~1.27 backflips in a row i think, but IDK how to statistics Depends on what you want: do you count any sequence? Or only those that start with a backflip? | ||
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Cyro
United Kingdom20318 Posts
On March 04 2015 07:51 Acrofales wrote: Depends on what you want: do you count any sequence? Or only those that start with a backflip? The 1.27 is just the amount of flips that you expect to hit when you jump for the first time. You still have the chance for none at all, but you'll probably jump and if you predict the amount of jumps before you take the first jump, you have ~33.6% chance to jump at least twice, 19.5% chance to jump at least 3 times etc (assuming 58 jumps out of 100 is an accurate representation of the chance and there's no pattern or bias) | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18090 Posts
On March 04 2015 08:01 Cyro wrote: If you only count after first backflip is already determined, that would just push the average to 2.27 instead AFAIK. The 1.27 is just the amount of flips that you expect to hit when you jump for the first time Ok, then: The chance of you getting one flip is 0.58, so your average backflip series is going to be: SUM from n = 1 to INF: n * (0.58)^n * 0.42 (namely, the chance of a streak of length n, multiplied by the number of backflips in that streak) Which is 0.42( 0.58 + 0.67 + 0.59 + 0.45 + 0.33 + 0.23 + 0.15 + 0.1 + 0.07 + 0.04 + ... ) For the first 10 as above, that gives an average length of 1.35, so I am guesstimating that this will be at most 1.4 if you were to compute it properly (figure out what series this is and use analytical tools to compute the limit). Obviously, the second part of your explanation is right: if you jump until you get your first backflip and THEN see what series you can get, your average series is expected to be somewhere slightly over 2.35 backflips long. | ||
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Cyro
United Kingdom20318 Posts
On March 04 2015 08:19 Acrofales wrote: Ok, then: The chance of you getting one flip is 0.58, so your average backflip series is going to be: SUM from n = 1 to INF: n * (0.58)^n * 0.42 (namely, the chance of a streak of length n, multiplied by the number of backflips in that streak) Which is 0.42( 0.58 + 0.67 + 0.59 + 0.45 + 0.33 + 0.23 + 0.15 + 0.1 + 0.07 + 0.04 + ... ) For the first 10 as above, that gives an average length of 1.35, so I am guesstimating that this will be at most 1.4 if you were to compute it properly (figure out what series this is and use analytical tools to compute the limit). Obviously, the second part of your explanation is right: if you jump until you get your first backflip and THEN see what series you can get, your average series is expected to be somewhere slightly over 2.35 backflips long. How are you getting 58%, 67%, 59%, 45% chance? How can you ever have a 67% chance for a second jump, or even any jump at all? I have no idea how to read any of that but it seems incorrect. Can't you just get the sequential chance by doing backflip chance to the power of whatever number? | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18090 Posts
On March 04 2015 08:23 Cyro wrote: How are you getting 58%, 67%, 59%, 45% chance? How can you ever have a 67% chance for a second jump, or even any jump at all? I have no idea how to read any of that but it seems incorrect. Can't you just get the sequential chance by doing backflip chance to the power of whatever number? You were asking for the expected value, right? So the number of backflips you expect to do. So for 2, you have a chance of doing exactly two backflips with chance 0.58* 0.58 * 0.42 = 0.14. However, in this case you do 2 backflips, so you have to multiply this by 2, so 0.28 (which is equal to 0.67 * 0.42). So the component n=2 adds 0.28 to your expected number of backflips. Now you have to sum this from 0 to infinity, which is the same as summing from 1 to infinity, because the series of 0 backflips adds nothing... and you end up with the series above. It's probably some kind of Taylor series, but I have no clue what the function is that generates this as a Taylor expansion. | ||
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Cyro
United Kingdom20318 Posts
seems simple enough to say a 33.64% chance of at least two. That's extremely simple math (100*0.58*0.58) | ||
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Acrofales
Spain18090 Posts
On March 04 2015 08:34 Cyro wrote: Sounds very complicated. So you have a 28% chance of doing exactly two backflips? seems simple enough to say a 33.64% chance of at least two. That's extremely simple math (100*0.58*0.58) No. Your actual chance of doing a series of exactly two backflips is ~0.14 (or 14%). Namely the chance of doing at least two backflips (which you did correctly) multiplied by the chance of your third jump not being a backflip (0.42), | ||
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Cyro
United Kingdom20318 Posts
math | ||
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Ethelis
United States2396 Posts
On March 04 2015 06:29 Seuss wrote: Trufax: When I first started playing WoW I thought repeat flips were based on precise space bar timing. What if i said i've thought the same all long til reading these posts... | ||
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Duvon
Sweden2360 Posts
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Nisyax
Netherlands756 Posts
Abilities merely switch position, still have the same shit. WHY | ||
Teoita
Italy12246 Posts
I spent like 6k resources for those and got the gold thingy twice, i guess i can count myself lucky | ||
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ViperPL
Poland1775 Posts
On March 04 2015 18:44 Nisyax wrote: Use follower ability reroll item for 1k garrison resources. Abilities merely switch position, still have the same shit. WHY At least something moved, I once used the thing that rerolls all traits and abilities on an epic follower and not a single god damn thing changed it's spot. It was really annoying. | ||
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Thorakh
Netherlands1788 Posts
On March 04 2015 00:03 Teoita wrote: It's because Blizzard cannot seem to find any balance in most things they do. The solution isn't have six different factions with good (mandatory for raiding in some cases) locked behind a rep grind with four/five dailies per faction or zero factions, no rewards and no dailies at all, it's in the middle. And Blizzard fails to grasp that. From one extreme to the other.Yeah. To be fair, the vast majority of wow forums have just gone full out retard this expansion. They went from hating any kind of daily quests 6 months ago and cheering for their removal, to begging for a new one to be introduced in 6.1 or 6.2 | ||
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Drazerk
United Kingdom31255 Posts
On March 04 2015 20:49 Thorakh wrote: It's because Blizzard cannot seem to find any balance in most things they do. The solution isn't have six different factions with good (mandatory for raiding in some cases) locked behind a rep grind with four/five dailies per faction or zero factions, no rewards and no dailies at all, it's in the middle. And Blizzard fails to grasp that. From one extreme to the other. BC has 3 daily zones with 4 / 2 / 18 dailies and that is basically the perfect amount really | ||
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Teoita
Italy12246 Posts
On March 04 2015 20:49 Thorakh wrote: It's because Blizzard cannot seem to find any balance in most things they do. The solution isn't have six different factions with good (mandatory for raiding in some cases) locked behind a rep grind with four/five dailies per faction or zero factions, no rewards and no dailies at all, it's in the middle. And Blizzard fails to grasp that. From one extreme to the other. Yeah that's very true. You can see the same thing with sc2 design, where now it's like they gave every unit one button to click and decided that's "micro intensive". | ||
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Cyro
United Kingdom20318 Posts
On March 04 2015 18:03 Duvon wrote: Doesn't WoW use pseudorng based on character place in world and more, so precise click timing would influence? But could you significantly alter the results by moving/clicking differently in a planned way? I don't think i could. | ||
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