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On December 01 2014 18:07 magicmUnky wrote:u wot m8 But seriously, your argument above could be summed up as: "You're right but I still think he's not legit.", because all you've done is postulate that flusha's actions 'probably' aren't explained by chance. I think if you take these things into account: - 16 tick demos - players are generally facing the portion of the map where the opposing players could/might be - flicks can be very accurate, even in smoke - LOD movements look very bizarre, always - these guys have played much more CS than you have - a pro hacker would have to be pretty foolish to misconfigure a hack that badly It would appear that the odds of suspicious movements occurring is very high, because the players are trying to do these things. (This should be pretty obvious... flusha is trying to kill those opposing players, he WOULD be trying to face them/flick to them etc etc). With all this in mind, there are only a couple of instances where plausibility is stretched - not even close to being enough 'evidence' to declare someone a hacker. If pro's are hacking they'll have to be caught by technical means, not by demo-scouring - because demos will never give you the information you need to prove a well hidden hack.
You misunderstood what I was saying. I'm saying that looking at the evidence alone is simply not enough to convict him because it does not give us nearly enough certainty - since in theory other pros could have just as many fishy actions which we might have never seen or don't remember because we were less likely to think they were hacking before the recent bans. The best method is to compare this evidence against all the other evidence - see how often flusha does things that do not make sense unless he is hacking, and compare that to how often all other pros perform actions that meet the same criteria. Doing this will inherently control for:
- 16 tick demos
- players are generally facing the portion of the map where the opposing players could/might be
- flicks can be very accurate, even in smoke
- LOD movements look very bizarre, always
- these guys have played much more CS than you have
As for the last bit about a pro hacker having to be foolish to misconfigure a hack that badly, there are two main problems with that statement. First off, there could be dozens of other professionals who hack and didn't slip up, but due to chance or him being less careful he produced more evidence. The other problem is that under pressure while thinking about other things, you don't have to be foolish to slip up like that. Distraction and reduction in higher thinking while under stress is sufficient to lead to foolish decisions (or mistakes) like hitting your aim key.
One last thing - complete certainty cannot be achieved, and we don't need it to make the right decision. If we know the costs of ending a player's career vs the costs to other players of him remaining in the scene and hacking, it is fairly simple to produce a probability beyond which we should bar him from professional competition.
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To add something extra:
This is what a sus shot looks like in 128 tick:
http://gfycat.com/ShabbyShockingGermanshepherd
and again in 16 tick from gotv:
http://gfycat.com/CriminalBriskBallpython
Sadly, the D2 clip isn't particularly convincing because as many have pointed out, even in 16 tick the cursor doesn't actually hit the head, it 'locks' nearby. But it is a great example of what locking looks like.
when I say locking, I mean 'locking in place' not like aimbot locking.
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On December 01 2014 16:58 Nagisama wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2014 15:48 Bacillus wrote:On December 01 2014 13:09 Nagisama wrote:On December 01 2014 13:03 killerdog wrote:On December 01 2014 11:23 SyNc` wrote:On December 01 2014 11:19 Doublemint wrote:On December 01 2014 11:12 SyNc` wrote:On December 01 2014 11:08 Doublemint wrote:On December 01 2014 10:59 Slardar wrote:On December 01 2014 10:02 Doublemint wrote:
[quote]
hating them for that is totally fine and to be expected to be honest.
but conflating that with all the hack accusations and the bullshit outcry over the map exploit is beyond sanity.
if anything, this DH showed that CS:GO/esports has a long way ahead to reach the professionalism of established sport.
death threats and not feeling sorry? lol. yeah this community is great indeed.
Man you know what I mean't. Obviously nobody deserves to have death threats thrown at them, cause that's frankly bullshit. When you keep saying "community" you should be referencing THOSE people not me. Just because I don't sugar coat everything doesn't mean my heart isn't in the right place. alright then. you are not one of the braindead. it's just hard to keep track of them if there are so many you know. and DH is sending the demos of tournament PCs to valve for further inspection. if they still don't find anything after that the cheaters/cheat coders deserve major credit to be honest. If valve doesn't find anything on the dreamhack pc's that still doesn't change the fact that they could have cheated throughout the year. The cheat has been out since late 2013, so that's a huge window. yeah, so what are we supposed to do then? hate on some people because it's convenient to our beliefs? how come flusha is the only one being singled out? because he is on Fnatic? is it because he is the fishiest? is it because others are not looked so hard after? why not scrape all victories of all teams during this period of time? - because I be damned that cheat is out for so long and ANYBODY could have cheated! would that be a bit harder(and fairer?!) than hating on certain individuals? when does this bullshit end then? you see where I am getting at? I don't know why flusha is the only one being singled out because like I said, smn's list had a lot of players on it. I'm sure people have scrambled to find whatever they could on many players but ended up at flusha. The easy answer to that is when the list was released, people started scrambling for vods on everyone. They happened to find a suspicious flusha vod first, which made all the people searching vods go "oh flusha's hacking" and focus all their efforts on more flusha vods. Just the fact that the clips emerged over a few days showed that even with all the focus on him it took a fair bit of searching, so who's to say whether they could have found that many on any other player, if the focus/hunt was on that player instead. (Just look at the thing hellraisers did, and the clips people found in a few hours. Flusha has had people scouring years worth of vods for many days now.) He also mentioned in the statement that he plays "a very mouse lift heavy style" compared to other pros, hence why he looks at walls more. whether that's true or not is w/e, but it would be interesting to see a few videos of randomly selected vods, which count the number of times his mouse stops on a wall over the course of a game (and maybe compare it to a few other players.) Funny someone did just that. http://www.reddit.com/r/GlobalOffensive/comments/2nvk94/unpopular_opinion_about_flusha/ I think it comes down to two extreme opinions once again. He plays low sensitivity and does that definitely and it wouldn't surprise me at all if it has caused a plenty of false positives. That stuff probably happens with the way he moves. As a whole, I think the whole wallhackish aimlock part of this has been blown out of proportions. Then again there are also a handful of clips that really still make me feel really uneasy about his play. There are cases where the mouse lifts happen in really odd spots (back and forth movement, multiple 'locks' in one round and so on) and there are some snaps and aiming moments that don't seem human at all. He has some extremely precise snaps through walls and full smoke and there are some plays that don't seem very rational until you see there's an enemy on his crosshair behind the wall for example. I'd really like to have someone with enough CS experience and an open mind go through the clips and have their rational opinion it. Not just "Obviously this, clearly that", but to actually pick 5-10 clips and talk through the possibilities from both angles and all that. Funny someone did just that too. http://en.reddit.com/r/GlobalOffensive/comments/2n9bbn/the_thoughts_of_a_former_esl_demo_reviewing_admin/Not sure how much you'd take credentials from random people on reddit, but he's a supposed anti-cheat admin for ESL.
I was actually considering whether I should mention that post. While the guy claims to be an ESL admin, I don't think he seems very knowledgeable about the stuff. It's a poorly written piece by some random guy who says he's an old demo admin. It's rambling to his own lifestory, has very little actual content and then goes to make silly jokes about some other single clip of a pro getting an amazing smoke headshot. Basically anything even remotely convincing about the whole thing is the claim that the guy is an ex admin. Even if I agreed with everything the guy writes, I'd mostly feel sorry because the point would've been made in such a poor and incoherent way.
What I want is someone picking for example the Dust 2 clip, then talking about the inconsistencies of demos and spectator view, talking about sound the zoom makes, talking about the possibilities of accidentally doing that movement and shooting, talking about how he moves after the suspected locking motion and all that. Even I can talk about some bits of that way more than most people seem to do, but I can't say I'd know source engine or top level CS:GO to the extend where I'd like to make too many very specific claims. That's why I'd love to have someone who understands the pro mindset of approaching the game and understands precisely how the mechanics work and for example knows how the low sensitivity players play.
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The best method is to compare this evidence against all the other evidence - see how often flusha does things that do not make sense unless he is hacking, and compare that to how often all other pros perform actions that meet the same criteria. Doing this will inherently control for:
Those things will all be even but it does not negate their obfuscating effects. You're still missing at least 3/4 of the data... if pros play at 128 tick, you're missing 7/8 of the data. High sens players will look like their cursors are zipping around wildly but getting lucky bullets and low sens players, like flusha, will look like flusha... as many recent demos have shown.
This is not like an experiment where you say: well we've held these things constant now lets look at the differences between this set of players: it doesn't work in this case because you're missing lots of data... you don't have the resolution you need to make reasonable assumptions, let alone reasonable conclusions.
tldr; not enough information to make reasonable claims
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This Flusha witch hunt reminds me a lot about the moonlanding conspiracy theories.
And we all know, no human have been on the moon. (As finally depicted in the documentary "Dr. Who: Interstellar")
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Just read the pronax interview. Always thought that he was one of the smarter guys, but:
"If they had figured it out in time(i think they figured it out at 13-13), they could have bought an scout/awp and killed Olof from outside T-spawn without Olof even being able to see the guy who kills him."
Either he is disgustingly BM and totally making fun of LDLC or he's actually retarded.
That's like LeBron saying to a 12yo girl who is playing him 1on1: "You just have to grow a bit and practice, than you'll be able to beat me."
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A lot of maps are in the open. If you throw a decoy grenade over buildings, does it land correctly on the other side, on top of the buildings or are there invisible walls for example on Inferno. And does the decoy still work whereever it lands?
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21 hours and 647 rounds played thats approx. over 50 matches and I got 3 drops, is that normal, a lot or bad luck?
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Drops are per week ! :-) if you play more, you don't drop more. A few hours weekly should do the trick, but i thought it was 4/week.
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On December 01 2014 22:02 iXphobos wrote:
Just read the pronax interview. Always thought that he was one of the smarter guys, but:
"If they had figured it out in time(i think they figured it out at 13-13), they could have bought an scout/awp and killed Olof from outside T-spawn without Olof even being able to see the guy who kills him."
Either he is disgustingly BM and totally making fun of LDLC or he's actually retarded.
That's like LeBron saying to a 12yo girl who is playing him 1on1: "You just have to grow a bit and practice, than you'll be able to beat me."
if you can see someone witouth him seeing you means there are invisible textures ? if thts so, he is retarded as that is ilegal
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On December 01 2014 23:09 Nouar wrote:
Drops are per week ! :-) if you play more, you don't drop more. A few hours weekly should do the trick, but i thought it was 4/week.
Imho it's 1 skin and 2 cases or something like that.
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On December 01 2014 22:24 Yrr wrote:
A lot of maps are in the open. If you throw a decoy grenade over buildings, does it land correctly on the other side, on top of the buildings or are there invisible walls for example on Inferno. And does the decoy still work whereever it lands?
AFAIK the current maps, all allow throw granades over buildings or across the map (pros do it all the time), unless there are some weird places, as long as theres nothing in between you and the destination, it should land there
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Thx for the answers.
About the drops. When does a new week start dropwise?
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On December 01 2014 23:34 Yrr wrote:
Thx for the answers.
About the drops. When does a new week start dropwise?
I don't think there's any confirmed time. Google finds some drop reset countdowns, but I don't think they match at least mine all that precisely. For most people it's somewhere in the middle of the week, around wednesday or so, but as far as I can tell you have to figure out the exact time on your account by trial and error.
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FFS, won a game 16-5, then lost 2-16, had to kick a guy out of the game cause he was 0-9 and kept shouting orders and calling us bad x_x.
Why D:
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On December 01 2014 23:51 Djzapz wrote:
FFS, won a game 16-5, then lost 2-16, had to kick a guy out of the game cause he was 0-9 and kept shouting orders and calling us bad x_x.
Why D:
Welcome to matchmaking :D
i prefer to stay quiet, play my game and follow what my team could be doing if im solo
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On December 01 2014 23:57 Faruko wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2014 23:51 Djzapz wrote:
FFS, won a game 16-5, then lost 2-16, had to kick a guy out of the game cause he was 0-9 and kept shouting orders and calling us bad x_x.
Why D: Welcome to matchmaking :D i prefer to stay quiet, play my game and follow what my team could be doing if im solo
I'm not new to matchmaking, but these days it's especially bad. Win one or two games really easily, then lose one or two very bad. Over the last 10 games I've played, I don't think the losing team has had more than 6-7 rounds.
Edited for making sense.
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Northern Ireland22213 Posts
On December 02 2014 00:04 Djzapz wrote:Show nested quote +On December 01 2014 23:57 Faruko wrote:On December 01 2014 23:51 Djzapz wrote:
FFS, won a game 16-5, then lost 2-16, had to kick a guy out of the game cause he was 0-9 and kept shouting orders and calling us bad x_x.
Why D: Welcome to matchmaking :D i prefer to stay quiet, play my game and follow what my team could be doing if im solo I'm not new to matchmaking, but these days it's especially bad. Win one or two games really easily, win one or two very bad. Over the last 10 games I've played, I don't think the losing team has had more than 6-7 rounds.
probably the influx of smurfs because its steam sale time
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That could be, in TF2 once the game went free that month or so, matches were funny lol
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EPT
