NFL Season 2010 - Page 56

Like I've said, these are stat-based rankings, so while I'm picking the stats and how they're weighted, they're impartial. Unfortunately, I haven't yet managed to adjust for schedule/opponent.

Here's my ranking again with the current Football Outsiders' DAVE ranking (a ranking adjusted based on current actual DVOA and preseason expectation/ranking), with the unadjusted DVOA given in parentheses, as per this column

1. Atlanta Falcons (2-1): 5 (7)
2. Indianapolis Colts (2-1): 7 (10)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0): 1 (3)
4. Green Bay Packers (2-1): 2 (1)
5. New England Patriots (2-1): 3 (6)
6. Kansas City Chiefs (3-0): 9 (2)
7. Philadelphia Eagles (2-1): 4 (5)
8. Tennessee Titans (2-1): 20 (13)
9. New York Jets (2-1): 6 (4)
10. Seattle Seahawks (2-1): 14 (9)
11. San Diego Chargers (1-2): 19 (15)
12. Chicago Bears (3-0): 12 (14)
13. St Louis Rams (1-2): 26 (23)
14. Miami Dolphins (2-1): 10 (11)
15. Denver Broncos (1-2): 22 (22)
16. Cincinnati Bengals (2-1): 17 (16)
17. Baltimore Ravens (2-1): 8 (18)
18. Minnesota Vikings (1-2): 16 (24)
19. Dallas Cowboys (1-2): 11 (8)
20. New Orleans Saints (2-1): 13 (12)
21. Washington Redskins (2-1): 18 (25)
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1): 21 (17)
23. Detroit Lions (0-3): 30 (26)
24. Cleveland Browns (0-3): 25 (19)
25. Oakland Raiders (1-2): 32 (29)
26. Houston Texans (2-1): 24 (21)
27. Arizona Cardinals (2-1): 23 (27)
28. New York Giants (1-2): 15 (20)
29. Carolina Panthers (0-3): 28 (31)
30. Buffalo Bills (0-3): 27 (28)
31. San Francisco 49ers (0-3): 31 (32)
32. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2): 29 (30)

That gives us two categories of suspicious rankings on my list.

I. Teams with losing records above 12/winning records below 20 (5)
(Reasoning: Given how early in the season we are, a team could be misplaced some depending on the schedule, but if very good or very bad shouldn't be too far out; 16 is average)
11. San Diego Chargers (1-2): 19 (15) - But we'd mostly agree the Chargers ought to be good, and have gotten unlucky/taken stupid losses.
21. Washington Redskins (2-1): 18 (25) - Who knows where the Redskins belong? This one doesn't bother me too much.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1): 21 (17) - Same here. Tampa could be getting better, but their wins have been close-ish and their loss terrible, even if to the Steelers.
26. Houston Texans (2-1): 24 (21) - The wild card. I don't really understand it, even if I can point to their awful defense (the Texans are -1 in net points). Unless the Texans revert to past years' form, this is the most major test case to see how my rank adjusts.
27. Arizona Cardinals (2-1): 23 (27) - The Cards should be 0-3, but have the most amazing luck I've ever seen. They're 27th or worse, winning record or no.

Final Score: 1 puzzle, 3 concerns, 1 no problem

II. Teams DAVE or DVOA Rank > +/-6 Off (10)
(Reasoning: 6 is the number of playoff spots in a conference, thus a "critical" number; also the lower approximation of 20% of 32 teams, and fifths is usually a decent way to divide a league: very good, good, average, bad, terrible)
2. Indianapolis Colts (2-1): (10) - Actually ranked 10th in DVOA, but will probably recover fine. #2 feels safe for now.
8. Tennessee Titans (2-1): 20 - The adjusted DAVE doesn't like the Titans. While I do, the fact that they're ranked this high with such unimpressive wins may indicate another test case.
11. San Diego Chargers (1-2): 19 - I don't know why DAVE doesn't like the Chargers. I don't know how my numbers rank the Chargers so high when they're averaging 4+ turnovers a game iirc.
13. St Louis Rams (1-2): 26 (23) - A genuine test case. Losses to the the Cards and Oakland argue they're terrible: beating Washington convincingly argues they're good. I have no idea how there's such a huge difference in ranking either.
15. Denver Broncos (1-2): 22 (22) - On the edge of being a question. This is something I need to figure out how to adjust for: offenses that just can't score TDs regularly even though they move the ball well.
17. Baltimore Ravens (2-1): 8 - No apologies. FO liked the Ravens preseason: DAVE still likes them because of that. I don't like them and neither do my numbers.
19. Dallas Cowboys (1-2): 11 (8) - I expect the Cowboys to get better (they moved up a couple spots this week now they finally won), but since I'm running pure stats right now, those two losses still hurt them.
20. New Orleans Saints (2-1): 13 (12) - One good 10 point win, and the Saints would jump about 10 places, I think.
23. Detroit Lions (0-3): 30 - The Lions are here on my rank because they've moved the ball, so the base rating is fairly good. Even the endzone turnovers haven't managed to knock them down further.
28. New York Giants (1-2): 15 (20) - See the Cowboys.

Final Tally: 1 puzzle, 3 test cases, 4 concerns, 3 no problem

Interestingly, of these 14 teams total, only San Diego falls into both categories (poorly ranked by NFL standing and ranked way different than DVOA). 4 I'm inclined to dismiss any questions on four of these teams (ARI, IND, BAL, DET) for now, leaving 10 teams to watch, of which only 2 - Houston and St Louis - feel like they're genuinely way out of place. I'm definitely keeping an eye on these things, but I don't feel - after only three weeks - that I've got demonstrably major flaws with the system.