EPT
but history has shown us time and time again that no ones going to win twice... he'll do a july trust me 
A State of Starcraft - Page 7
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
but history has shown us time and time again that no ones going to win twice... he'll do a july trust me | ||
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Letmelose
Korea (South)3227 Posts
I've mentioned the importance of succeeding in the proleague, despite the flaws it has in judging a player's strength, simply because of the huge emphasis put on in recent times. Succeeding in the proleague has become more important to a player than ever before. While the proleague achievements does depend heavily on the other team mates, great proleague performance has become a neccessity in order to be regarded as a great player. That's why I didn't rate Bisu that high because he never was a key player for his team. That's why I rated Jaedong so highly last season because he was the only player last season to boast proleague and individual league victories (while winning both individual leagues may be harder, you may be underestimating how diffilcult this is as well). The only reason people didn't regard this achievement that high was probably because Flash stole the headlines by becoming the first terran player in years to dominate all the top protoss players in his campaign during GSI and OSL. GSI became important not because it was important to the players, but because it was the stage where Flash first emerged as a force to be reckoned with. Jaedong dominated during the latter half of last season, though he didn't cope that well with the hectic schedule. A few would have in my opinion. I guess I put more emphasis upon doing well in all competitons than some because I believe that it is what separates the great from the good. I don't rate players that boost their statistics solely from being a key proleague player (Sea is a great example of this). I rate players that show their depth by doing great in all competition by winning against opponents who have prepared more. It is my belief that last season, Jaedong was superior to Flash but wasn't able to overcome him (a player he outclassed in the MSL) because of the postseason schedule (though Flash's mental games might have played a factor). This is why I believe Jaedong was still a superior player at the end of the season, but why I also felt this was what separated Jaedong (who at the time I thought would be the next coming of Savior) from Savior. Was mental games what separated the two? I'm not sure. Savior sure was more cheese resistant of the two. Flash lost to Luxury because Luxury prepared more and Flash couldn't cope with it. I still believe that Troy sucks for zerg because of the short rush distance. The mere fact that terrans can force zergs to mass sunken without much difficulty tips the balance in terran's favour. Flash's lack of practice against Luxury showed because his reaction to Luxury fast 3rd gas, fast hive island type play totally sucked ass. I think Flash would have owned Luxury under equal circumstances, but this is Flash's limitations to overcome. It's my personal belief that once Flash is forced to play under the hectic schedule where he often would have to go to matches with minimal practice with only his mechanics and in-game decision making to help him, his relative lack of in-game brilliance will hinder him. Will Flash keep being a force in the progaming scene like you said? Well, longetivity is an issue that a few people can predict correctly. Who knows? I think you already stated in your original post that the rate of which new players come up and replace the older ones has risen in recent time though. I personally believe that Flash has this season and perhaps the next to win everything that he can before he burns out. He may still be a prominent player afterwards, but I'm certain this status he holds right now will only last this season, next season at the most. Which is why he needs to win everything that he can right now and why every losses that he takes (like the two he had recently) will lessen his chances of being held in the same regard with the likes of Nada. July winning this OSL will be SO sweet. He is probably the first zerg that I felt at ease when playing against terran (though it didn't last long). Oov once said that he felt at his strongest in the summer of 2004 and felt his heydey was over the moment he lost to July in the semifinals of the Gillette OSL though he went on to rule to scene on and off for as long as two years afterwards. It was amazing how July knocked Oov around silly when he was at his strongest. It'd be sweet if he somehow managed to do the same to Flash, though I highly doubt it. I swore not to expect such things from July sometime around last year because I kept getting angry with him  and I don't wanna hate July. | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
 so im glad we've reached a point where we understand each other. Just a few issues that i have with it;This thing about bonjwas simply revolves around definitions. Personally i have no issues with drawing a distinction between the two concepts of "the best player" and a "bonjwa" although often they overlap. I have to assume that you know more about this issue than i do, personally i'm not to fussed about it. The second thing is about proleauge and its importance to the players involved. Proleauge has always been an essential part of a progamers life and have always been quoted as saying that the teamleauges were the most important matches for them. I dont think this attitude has changed, although it has been brought to the forefront more by increasing the intensity of proleauge. The final thing is whether Flash needs to win everything now, or whether he will still be strong next season. And i guess the answer lies within your post anyway - longevity is an issue that few can predict correctly. Personally i feel that Flash will preform similar to July, you think that he will fade away like many other gamers have done. Both are reasonable theories, and are only substantiated with gut feelings and personal beliefs. So this is a point where we have no choice but to agree to disagree, until time proves one of us right And yes, Julyzerg hwaiting!! | ||
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EGoldman
United States110 Posts
That's got to take some of the luster off his edge, especially when these losses are obviously forcing him out of his comfort zone, and punishing him for going those fast armory upgrades. Tbh, I love it! Flash is a fantastic player, but it was starting to bore me that people knew what was coming and couldn't beat it. The pro scene is definitely not stagnating!! | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
. However i don't think its going to spell the end for Flash, he is a smart player and one who will be able to come back and adapt. I see this as a small setback for him on the grand scheme of things as he will have a chance to prove his worth next OSL, or the OSL after. His edge may be eroding, slowly, but i feel that he will be able to maintain it and then sharpen it or later. | ||
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EGoldman
United States110 Posts
And yeah, I think he's still in it for a good while. Even after being down something like 2-3 expos, he came back in that game in a huge way. I noticed he was already starting to try adapting to the "stormscape" strategy by staggering his army a lot, crawling the map with vultures and mines, and staying very aggressive on the opponent's side. It did leave him vulnerable to some recalls, but I think next time he won't have to come back from so far behind like he did in the game vs hero. And he really thrashed hero's observer count, until hero was basically just rallying armies through minefields and eating the damage straight up. | ||
zatic
Zurich15345 Posts
Great, great job! 11/10! | ||
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besiger
Croatia2452 Posts
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
Mental State and the OGN Curse A "A State of Starcraft" extension By Plexa The OGN Curse goes by many names on teamliquid. Formerly, it was known as the OSL curse and more recently it has assumed the title "Winner's Curse". Regardless of the title of which it goes by, this curse is one of the great mysteries of Starcraft. Many of the Vets on the site know very well what this ancient curse beholds, however it has come to my attention that some of the newer guys have no idea about what the curse entails. The OGN Curse is a curse which dictates that no player can win the OSL back to back, with the exception of Boxer. Traditionally the former winner would be eliminated in the group stages of the OSL and descend into a slump, in recent times players have been eliminated at the Ro8 stage of the tournament. ![[image loading]](http://teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/ilovept2/oov.png) He was arguably the best, but he still fell to the curse For some brief history on the curse, after EVER 2004 - Oov was riding high as the undoubted best player in Starcraft. In You are the Golf King MSL he crushed July 2-0 3 days after his final against Boxer. His next opponent was the perfect Terran, Xellos, who defeated Oov 2-1. With Oov prevented from winning his 4th MSL, things seemed somewhat unstable for the Terran titan so he was set for redemption in IOPS OSL. He was placed in a group with July, Clon and Nada, strong company but nothing Oov couldn't handle. However the curse took effect and he lost his first two games to July and Clon which meant for the first time in his career he was eliminated from the OSL in the group stages. He managed a win against Nada however, although the game had no bearing on the final standings of the group. After IOPS Oov entered a slump, while not as drastic as Boxer's slumps, it was still a solid slump. The slump lasted until circa So1 and then he won his Second OSL the following Season - and the curse took hold again. For a more recent example, it seems appropriate to cite Savior as his fall was a turning point in the history of Starcraft. After winning against Nada the curse took hold and he lost to Bisu in the MSL and Nada in the Shinhan Masters. I've already discussed this in the article at some length. In Daum OSL, Savior's group comprised of Iloveoov, Flash and Light. Savior was able to overcome oov and Flash and make it out of his group - just. But then in the Ro8 he met his teammate Iris in the Ro8 whom he lost 1-2 to. Savior obviously deteriorated from there, but he adhered to the OSL winners curse. ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/State/masters.png) Savior's inability to win Shinhan Masters was a sign of the curse taking hold So how does the winner's curse and the mental state of a progamer relate? Well there are a number of factors which get lumped on a player once he wins an OSL. The first of which is one that is natural once you become a champion, that is that you become a target. By winning the OSL you are the benchmark of skill for the rest of the progaming world to judge you by. Hence you become the player to beat. While this isn't exclusive to the OSL, it is more applicable to the OSL than the MSL. This seems rather strange to the foreign fan, but the MSL traditionally was consider a 'lesser' tournament to the OSL. This was largely based off the prize money offered. Also there has been significant press/hype around the OSL to make it seem like the best tournament, such as the creation of the Royal Road (absent from the MSL). Although in recent times the two tournaments are on the whole considered equal, there still is some of the stigma left in the scene. This means that an OSL win is always placed more highly than an MSL win, and thus the OSL champion is always going to be considered the benchmark of success. By becoming the benchmark, you become a target for every gamer - and that means everyone is out to get you. After winning the most prestigious tournament in the Starcraft world, it is not uncommon for gamers to become complacent with this success and beleive that they are superior to others. Indeed this happens without many gamers realising as it happens on a subliminal level. This 'softens' the mental state of a gamer and makes him less prone to success. The softening means that the gamer is more likely to drop the odd set here and there - which is a big problem in the Bo1 group stages. When players lose the challenger mindset and take on the winners mindset they often struggle to continue to perform as their task changes from demonstrating their skill to defending their skill. Thats another skill in itself. ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/State/GGplay.png) Winning Daum OSL was the beginning of the end for GGPlay A very obvious example is that of GGplay. GGplay was a strong late game Zerg who was feared by many when he was at his peak. After coming back to win Daum OSL he dropped off the face of the earth. He slumped like no other because he could not handle this mindset change. As the champion, everyone wanted to beat him and his mindset had softened from his finals victory. These two factors severely hampered his performance in the group stage of EVER 2007. No one expected him to be able to defeat Bisu, but when he lost to Shudder things looked obviously wrong. GGPlays mindset was not equipped to handle this and as a consequence he slumped terribly - which demolished what remained of his mindset. While his skill was still formidable (e.g. GGplay vs Bisu in the Hanbit-MBC clash in some Proleague showmatch) he was never able to get his mindset straight and make a serious attempt on the OSL. Jaedong's loss to Flash can be seen in the light of the OSL curse as well. When your mindset softens, you react less ably to surprises - something Flash came equipped with in his Ro8 match. Flash's brilliant cheese on Troy and his Mech on Katrina took advantage of the softened mental state of Jaedong and as a result Jaedong could not defeat the winners curse. Obviously, the rest of his deterioration was affected by further series and a crumbling mental state but his initial set back could be put squarely on the OSL curse. We are seeing a repeat with Flash at the moment, Luxury used a brilliant build on Troy which took Flash out of his zone and due to his softened mental state he dropped the set. His hiccups in proleague are also adequately explained by this phenomenon. ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Plexa/State/closer.png) Even a God is subject to the laws of gravity, and the OGN Curse While Flash is a revolutionary gamer, and one of the strongest Terrans of out day, he is still subject to the basic laws of Starcraft. Apart from Nada and Boxer, JulyZerg seems like the best candidate for Flash to emulate. July placed 2nd in IOPS OSL - 2 seasons after his win in Gillette then went on to win EVER 2005. Flash's emergence on the scene by toppling one of the biggest monsters ever in a spectacular display (Flash-Jaedong July-Iloveoov) and then defeating the best Protoss of the day in the final (Flash-Stork July-Reach) is so similar to July's that i beleive he will follow the same path. Luxury may eliminate Flash this time around, but Flash will come back and destroy the next two OSLs. Flash will have staying power, unlike his predecessor - and as a result he will define another generation of Terran gameplay. | ||
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ulszz
Jamaica1787 Posts
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Kingsp4de20
United States716 Posts
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Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
Heh, nice read... The pwnage continues. | ||
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ScarFace
United States1175 Posts
But no, there will be no similar pattern, and Savior [imo] did not even enter a slump because of the osl. Savior was always arrogant, he always thought he was the best. Even if the osl is more important than the msl, he won the msl 3 times and made the finals 4 times before his osl victory. He was indisputably the best, he was indisputably on the 'winners mindset' long before shinhan. He WAS the one to beat. He lost to Bisu because Bisu played god damn immaculate like, and he wasn't able to cope. Savior had lost before, but never a crushing 0-3....in his best matchup, no less. From there he had hiccups, losing important sets though still giving a strong fight. Losing to Iris, FBH, Mind, and later Bisu again only kicked Savior in the balls after his humiliating defeat. He entered a slump because he had no confidence left, not because he had nothing to prove. Edit: I love KTF, but I love Flash more. If they continue to play Flash EVERY game for EVERY ace match, I swear to god....  ktf coach... | ||
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Vasoline73
United States7805 Posts
On June 18 2008 07:16 ScarFace wrote: I agree that Flash has staying power, and I agree that winning the osl makes you enter a bit of a slump, but I disagree with just about everything else. Flash wont follow some mystical pattern just because of the similar dynamics to a past rivalry, thats mumbo jumbo. Flash has lost random sets partially because of his mindset, partially because hes playing a ridiculously large amount of games. | ||
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G5
United States2906 Posts
and ya since savior won the osl, he has only gone further down hill to the sad sad point he is at right now T.T i really hope he returns TT | ||
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EGoldman
United States110 Posts
On June 18 2008 07:16 ScarFace wrote: I agree that Flash has staying power, and I agree that winning the osl makes you enter a bit of a slump, but I disagree with just about everything else. Flash wont follow some mystical pattern just because of the similar dynamics to a past rivalry, thats mumbo jumbo. Flash has lost random sets partially because of his mindset, partially because hes playing a ridiculously large amount of games. But no, there will be no similar pattern, and Savior [imo] did not even enter a slump because of the osl. Savior was always arrogant, he always thought he was the best. Even if the osl is more important than the msl, he won the msl 3 times and made the finals 4 times before his osl victory. He was indisputably the best, he was indisputably on the 'winners mindset' long before shinhan. He WAS the one to beat. He lost to Bisu because Bisu played god damn immaculate like, and he wasn't able to cope. Savior had lost before, but never a crushing 0-3....in his best matchup, no less. From there he had hiccups, losing important sets though still giving a strong fight. Losing to Iris, FBH, Mind, and later Bisu again only kicked Savior in the balls after his humiliating defeat. He entered a slump because he had no confidence left, not because he had nothing to prove. Edit: I love KTF, but I love Flash more. If they continue to play Flash EVERY game for EVERY ace match, I swear to god.... ktf coach...I think you misunderstand Plexa's article. I read the article about the curse as a reasoning for why these winners even BEGIN their slump. You can say the other player plays immaculately, but I have seen plenty of games where a player plays pretty much the best game he can, and still loses. There is no denying that the mind games are even more important than the technical dynamic occurring in each match. It's as simple as becoming a winner makes you soft. It doesn't make you a loser. But I think Plexa said it brilliantly when he talked about how the psychology changes from being a challenger to a defender. It's a whole different world, and I thought he used really beautiful historical examples to justify his reasoning. Rock arguably had a MASSIVE advantage over Flash on Coliseum in their PL match, but he lost. BADLY. Carriers was not a bad strat at all. But you could tell he just didn't have the mental toughness to stay in the game. He was intimidated. He saw a chance to win and scrambled for it desperately. And he failed. By comparison, Best wasn't even close to having as big an advantage as Rock had early on, but he managed to stomp Flash with a similar strat on the same map. Why? Because he grinded it out. He brought up good gate armies in support of his carriers, and he didn't just throw it all out there in a big lump of imba. He fought it methodically, and earned his victory. And the example you're using of Savior, just doesn't gel in my head. That shows the lack of understanding of what the CHALLENGER mindset is. The challenger mindset is one that doesn't have as much ego. The Challenger has something to WIN. The winner mindset is the one where he thinks he's at his pinnacle. He has something to LOSE. There's a world of difference between the two. Sure, Savior was on top of his game. THat's without doubt. And that's EXACTLY why he was so crushed by his big loss to Bisu. It's a psychology everyone understands. A loss is way more humiliating when you're #1 than if you're #100349. It doesn't mean as soon as someone hits #1 they autolose. But it does mean when that inevitable loss comes, they will be devastated by it 10x harder. That is what I think Plexa's article was saying, and I agree with it 110%. I mean, look at Stork. Fantastic player. Without doubt one of the elite 3 in the SC scene. He should have gotten his league wins SO SO long ago. But now he's in a massive slump. Why? Devastating losses to Flash when he felt like he was at the top of his game. It is the same dynamic, regardless of whether or not he won the actual trophy. Psychology is not as cut and dry as a math equation, but it does operate in certain patterns, and I think that's without doubt. I'd suggest looking over Plexa's actual article, and instead of trying to pigeon-hole it by disputing little details, understand what general dynamic he is outlining. It's enlightening and entertaining. It definitely makes my own SC viewing experience that much more enjoyable. Thanks Plexa! | ||
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ScarFace
United States1175 Posts
Plexa's statement: Savior lost the Challenger mindset after winning the OSL, allowing his mental game to weaken, which collapsed his game after his defeat to Bisu. My statement: Savior lost the challenger mindset sometime between his 3 msl victories and his OSL run, allowing his mental game to weaken, which collapsed his game after his defeat to Bisu. Plexas statement: Flash will follow Julys pattern of staying one of the consistent best players, still winning starleagues, though maybe not all of them, just as JulyZerg did. My Statement: An unfounded hypothesis, utterly ludicrous. Flash's future is unknown, it is not written in the stars, and it will not follow the same dynamics as any past osl winner. Not Jaedong, not ggplay, not July, no one. It will follow Flash's path, because it is his to make. | ||
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Tinithor
United States1552 Posts
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EGoldman
United States110 Posts
And I apologize ScarFace. I didn't mean to come off as condescending, although looking back at what I wrote, I definitely did :\. Sorry! And yeah, I think it's too difficult to call exactly how the future will go. But I really appreciated how he highlighted the general dynamic of Winner versus Challenger mentality. So, I concede the point | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On June 18 2008 10:56 ScarFace wrote: Well Savior is an anomaly, similar to Oov and the other bonjwas (3MSL definition). Savior didn't become the champ over night.. it took a considerably longer period of time before people even started to notice him. I mean, even after his series with reach he was still just "some zerg" and even after he lost to Chojja - he was that strong zerg with a ZvZ weakness. I'd say he became the champ around his victory over Ra in the holy wars. That defined savior as the champ. But still the OSL title eluded him. Seriously i think you underestimate how much the OSL meant to savior - he had been denied entry every single time until Shinhan 3 - thats why he royal roaded. The OSL was significant as it really was "the last step" toward becoming a god. Savior's loss to bisu wasn't a direct derivative of losing the OSL, i'd be a fool to argue that. What im saying is that the OSL had a minor role to play in the grand scheme of things in terms of Savior. The semiarticle was more directed at the OSL curse and players who ascend to the OSL throne before the MSL. This is indeed a generalization, but it is a factor that affects all players who become a champion. I agreed with his general statements, I disagreed with his premise about Savior. Perhaps you should read my post rather than respond in a condescending tone? Savior collapsed because he was THE player to beat and he lost. He was not THE player to beat because of the OSL. He was THE player to beat long before that, because of his 3 msl titles basically in a row. I understand why people slump, and I never argued against that. I argued against the dynamic Plexa is claiming Flash will follow, which is ludicrious, and why Savior slumped. In case you still dont get it, lets recap: Plexa's statement: Savior lost the Challenger mindset after winning the OSL, allowing his mental game to weaken, which collapsed his game after his defeat to Bisu. My statement: Savior lost the challenger mindset sometime between his 3 msl victories and his OSL run, allowing his mental game to weaken, which collapsed his game after his defeat to Bisu. Plexas statement: Flash will follow Julys pattern of staying one of the consistent best players, still winning starleagues, though maybe not all of them, just as JulyZerg did. My Statement: An unfounded hypothesis, utterly ludicrous. Flash's future is unknown, it is not written in the stars, and it will not follow the same dynamics as any past osl winner. Not Jaedong, not ggplay, not July, no one. It will follow Flash's path, because it is his to make. Plexas statement: generally, the winning the OSL changes the mindset of a player from the challenger to the champion which allows a weakness in their mental game Bisu blitz'd savior, something which came from nowhere and thus that series is far more pivotal in the career of savior than just a OSL curse loss - it is a definitive cause of his slump. Plexas statement: Flash will follow a pattern similar to july -> this is completely unfounded and purely my hypothesis. There is no reason why Flash should follow a similar pattern, except that when i watch flash play i get the same feeling as i get when i saw july playing. That is all - this is pure speculation; nothing more. Thats really a minor point of the article and a hypothesis of things to come, the crux of the article revolves around the general case of what winning the OSL does btw EGoldman hit the nail right on the head that's exactly what i was trying to say ^^ | ||
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