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On August 14 2007 15:45 gravity wrote:
"80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has."
This is actually almost exactly what you would expect from a player with a 60% game winning ratio playing against an average opponent in a Bo3 (0.6*0.6*0.4*(3 choose 2) + 0.6*0.6 = 0.792). Of course, opponents in Bo3's are generally going to be somewhat above average so this does still indicate some "clutch" ability (though on the other hand I didn't take into account Bo5's which should have an even better ratio). I guess the real story is Midas's relative failure in Bo's.
Your math is wrong.
Simple proof :
If Nada has a 60% winning ratio against his opponent, and 79.2% in a bo3
Then his opponent has a 40% winning ratio against Nada, and should have 20.8% in a bo3
But apply your formula to the opponent (easy, just switch the 0.4 and the 0.6) :
0.4*0.4*0.6*(3 choose 2) + 0.4*0.4 = ...... 44.8% >_> that's obviously wrong.
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How to win a bo3 ?
win-win, 0.6*0.6=36%
win-lose-win, 0.6*0.4*0.6=14.4%
lose-win-win, 0.4*0.6*0.6=14.4%
Total 64.8% for bo3's (68.2% for bo5's).
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With a 60% winning ratio, Nada should have won around 65% of his bo3/bo5 series.
His overall score of 80%+ is INSANE.
... BUT MIDAS IS SO AWESOME. FLY AGAIN SKT !
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Germany / USA16648 Posts
On August 14 2007 19:57 Guybrush wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2007 13:39 Carnac wrote:
Nice read, Steve!
One thing I feel I have to add though: iloveoov has never lost a final, but Nada has (to oov coincidendally as well as Gorush). Hmm Oov did lose to July in the iTV final. Sure that league wasnt MSL nor OSL, but still many well known pros participating(16 I think maybe more) so not comparable to the special events IE Blizzcon, IEF or anything like that. Not up there with the KT-KTF in terms of prizemoney but I think July got a nice chunk of money for winning it. yeah i didnt count that one
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On August 14 2007 23:17 Matoo- wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2007 15:45 gravity wrote:
"80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has."
This is actually almost exactly what you would expect from a player with a 60% game winning ratio playing against an average opponent in a Bo3 (0.6*0.6*0.4*(3 choose 2) + 0.6*0.6 = 0.792). Of course, opponents in Bo3's are generally going to be somewhat above average so this does still indicate some "clutch" ability (though on the other hand I didn't take into account Bo5's which should have an even better ratio). I guess the real story is Midas's relative failure in Bo's. Your math is wrong. Simple proof : If Nada has a 60% winning ratio against his opponent, and 79.2% in a bo3 Then his opponent has a 40% winning ratio against Nada, and should have 20.8% in a bo3 But apply your formula to the opponent (easy, just switch the 0.4 and the 0.6) : 0.4*0.4*0.6*(3 choose 2) + 0.4*0.4 = ...... 44.8% >_> that's obviously wrong. --- How to win a bo3 ? win-win, 0.6*0.6=36% win-lose-win, 0.6*0.4*0.6=14.4% lose-win-win, 0.4*0.6*0.6=14.4% Total 64.8% for bo3's (68.2% for bo5's). --- With a 60% winning ratio, Nada should have won around 65% of his bo3/bo5 series. His overall score of 80%+ is INSANE. ... BUT MIDAS IS SO AWESOME. FLY AGAIN SKT !
haha, you beat me to it. gravity's math is definitely wrong and calling other people statistically ignorant 
Also, factor in the fact that opponents tend to be better in bo3 matches than on average, since they had to beat other players to get that far.
What's Midas's record btw?
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Braavos36379 Posts
i also believe iloveoov is a more clutch player than nada, as he's 5-0 in finals, while nada has lost multiple ones.
i really think someone needs to compile statistics for do-or-die games
that includes:
Proleague ace matches
Game3s in Bo3s
Game5s in Bo5s
Elimination games in Dual or Survivor tournaments (games where if you lose, you're out)
and see who has the best record there. obviously this would take a long time but it'd go a long way to solving the "who is clutch" question, as those situations are clearly ones that have the most intense pressure.
On August 14 2007 22:19 GrandInquisitor wrote:
Good article. Though reading the article title, I thought it was Hot_Bid was going to write ;D
you and i are diametrically opposed in this. you like flashy records and high statistics, i don't mind 50% win rates if the guy wins the championship. you'd rather have a high rating in a ladder and i'd rather win the final tournament with a bad record. you'd rather be midas than be casy, which i'll never understand.
and nobody has been talking about how boxer is what, 0-4 in finals since his back-to-back like six years ago? everyone likes to ignore the fact that he's probably one of the most unclutch players when it comes to finals.
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Boxer was an underdog in all those finals except maybe the one against Garimto. In fact many would argue that he was actually "clutching" being able to make them as close as they were. That's because he's Boxer and can beat anyone on a given day.
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Braavos36379 Posts
are you sure he was the underdog in all four finals after his win over yellow? i wasn't around to watch all those finals but was it really like that?
and the definition of "clutch" is raising your ability and play level when the stakes get higher. if boxer was truly clutch, he'd at least have won one or two of those. if he had just won one of those four, he'd be discussed with nada as the most accomplished player ever, if he won two of those four there'd be no discussion, he'd be consensus #1.
nobody denies what boxer has done in terms of personality, entertainment, and innovation in brood war but i wish so much that he had just won just one or two of those four finals. it just sucks that he didn't, especially since the anytime and oov ones went to 5 games.
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GGplay must be quite clutch.
50% 2007 winning ratio, which sucks
52% career winning ratio, which also sucks
But despite that he won an OSL.
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Braavos36379 Posts
in daum osl he certainly was, he won vs hwasin, flash, and iris--all those series went to the final game
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Boxer definitely does well under pressure, but he really just hasn't been good enough to win a Starleague in a long time.
On August 15 2007 05:18 Matoo- wrote:
GGplay must be quite clutch.
50% 2007 winning ratio, which sucks
52% career winning ratio, which also sucks
But despite that he won an OSL.
Watch game 3 of the finals. Now that's clutch.
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Braavos36379 Posts
yeah i agree he does well under pressure... but just not as well as some other players. i just wish he'd have won one of those four finals.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 15 2007 04:38 Hot_Bid wrote:
and the definition of "clutch" is raising your ability and play level when the stakes get higher.
This is where the ideas sort of fuzz, when trying to pick iloveoov or Nada. Nada has been around longer, and has won a title in various leagues at virtually every point of his career, including one just last fall. Oov won his titles when he was dominating everyone, there wasn't anyone who could touch him, there was no occasion to rise to. Oov's last title was in 2005 and he hasn't been anywhere near a final since then, in either league. That's why I gave the nod to Nada.
And Oov lost to July twice in the iTV final, which was as difficult a league as any, with a similar prizepool. As well, oov has lost four times in MSL/OSL semifinals, whereas Nada has only lost twice in MSL semifinals, and has never lost an OSL semifinal.
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Braavos36379 Posts
right, so you could argue that oov's 5-0 record in finals is even more amazing then, as the pressure is even higher than the semifinals and thus oov raises his play level to meet it
nada losing in the finals of starleagues and not in the semifinals would seem to suggest that he doesn't raise his play level in the finals
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United States20661 Posts
nada's lost 2 bo5 finals against yellOw of all people.
FINALS.
ahahaHAHaHhAhaha
one of them was even a starleague.
but it was a nice read; I liked it.
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GhemTV can call it whatever they want, it's not a real Starleague. =P
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 15 2007 09:30 Last Romantic wrote:
nada's lost 2 bo5 finals against yellOw of all people.
FINALS.
ahahaHAHaHhAhaha
one of them was even a starleague.
but it was a nice read; I liked it.
yellow has never won a starleague so what are you talking about
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 15 2007 09:08 Hot_Bid wrote:
right, so you could argue that oov's 5-0 record in finals is even more amazing then, as the pressure is even higher than the semifinals and thus oov raises his play level to meet it
nada losing in the finals of starleagues and not in the semifinals would seem to suggest that he doesn't raise his play level in the finals
The focus is more how he plays, Nada plays mechanically flawless once he hits the semifinal 95% of the time. Oov doesn't show that, he was just that much better for a while. Nada's never had that advantage save for maybe during his MSL tear way back when
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but in the tournament world mechanically flawless play is sacrificed for wins i'd much rather go 5-0 than play textbook terran
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 15 2007 10:26 CustomXSpunjah wrote:
but in the tournament world mechanically flawless play is sacrificed for wins i'd much rather go 5-0 than play textbook terran
Your definition of 'mechanically flawless' isn't correct.
"Mechanically flawless" means he doesn't make physical mistakes, not that he plays textbook. On top of that, why would ANYONE rather be 5-0 than 6-3 in finals?
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nice 
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I agree with SonuvBob on the Boxer issue. His two final losses in modern times doesn't take away from how well he performs under pressure. Winning the semifinals and taking the finals to game five is stretching beyond the limits of what his actuall skill was compared to his opponents. Also think about the way he wins his games. When the stakes are high, most players want the games to follow the familiar pattern of their thousands of practice games. Sometimes they are so reluctant to adapt that it looks quite silly. Boxer is the opposite. He will force himself and the opponent into unknown territory where only their basic brood war instincts and flashes of brilliance can win the game. These games Boxer dominates while he loses the straight up ones, at least that's how I remember it. He is unique in this way.
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EPT
