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Valhalla18444 Posts
Clutch Engage
by FakeSteve[TPR]
TeamLiquid: Final Edits
Amongst the cream of the progaming crop, the absolute strongest of players, there is a gap between 'winners' and 'champions'. For starters, let's take a look at two players that embody opposite sides of this balance: Midas and Nada. Let's create appropriate context: both Midas and Nada are recognized as cruising at the highest level of Terran gameplay. Both boast strong overall winrates, with Midas at 62.90% and Nada at 61.89%. Both maintain good records in every season of ProLeague, and never seem to have too much trouble qualifying for StarLeagues. When competing against other players, they're the favourite more often than not. So what seperates these two?
The biggest difference is this: some players cave under pressure, some players lay down the law when the stakes are high. Players can be consistantly defeated by their own inherent meekness and nerves, regardless of their abilities in the game. The difference between a 'winner' and a 'champion' is, of course, the tendency to be a choke artist or a clutch player. A choke artist can win bucketfuls of games, and still have titles evade him. A clutch player will shine when faced with elimination.
Midas looking slightly confused for whatever reason.
Midas is a great player, he really is. His skill in every matchup is undeniable, and he boasts win percentages that reflect his skill accurately. Midas is a winner. When thrust into an ODT group with three other pros, Midas will usually advance. When placed onto a ProLeague match roster, he'll reliably come out on top. Players can throw their best one-off or all-in strategies at him, and he'll often bat these attempts aside and slaughter his foe. Nada is the same, he boasts impressive win percentages in every matchup, and will consistently qualify for leagues and win ProLeague games. Yet, despite the similarity in skill, Nada holds the title of "Most Successful ProGamer Of All Time", and Midas has yet to reach the finals in a StarLeague. His consistency in single games is countered by his lack thereof in multi-game series. When put against a single opponent in multiple sets, Midas can rarely seem to collect the three wins he requires to advance from a best of 5. Midas has made several StarLeague semifinal appearances, and hasn't capitalized even once. Watching it happen live is disturbing, as you can physically see Midas' demeanour and play morph from strong competition to a festering blemish on the Terran name. Midas chokes, and so far that's been the bottom line.
Nada is also a great player. He's had high points and low points in his career; the most notable low being the period directly after losing his father. Nada is a constant contender, and he's got the green to talk for him. He's the only player to win the Golden Mouse, he's claimed three MSL championships. Like Midas, Nada is strong, and when faced with ODT or Survivor he'll most likely advance. The difference comes when Nada must play a multiple set series against one opponent. Unlike Midas, Nada wins. If Nada is faced with a best of 5, Nada wins three of those games much more often than not. This is why Nada has won six individual championships. Unlike Midas, who falls easier and easier as a series progresses and his opponents identify and pick apart weaknesses, Nada stands as a barrier. If someone wants to advance past him, that person must win three or five games before Nada does. The chances of that are slim. Very slim.
I know statistics get thrown around quite a bit, and not all of them are meaningful. Here's one that ought to make your ears ring a bit: according to the TLPD, in series best-of-3 or more played out in a single day, Nada is 46-11. Forty-six and fucking eleven. 80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has. Just look at this, let it sink in:
46 - 11
No other player comes close, in volume or ratio. Who are the players with the most prolific eras of dominance? Boxer, iloveOov, and Savior. None of them are anywhere near Nada's total of 57 series played, iloveOov is closest at 30-13 (An interesting note - While counting backwards from the most recent games, the worst ratio I hit for Oov was 14-8). Only Savior is close in ratio at 21-7, and his reign is seemingly overthrown. The legend Boxer's questionable staying power left him at a ratio of 24-18. Nada has stayed qualified for (or seeded in) OSL and MSL, the only place barring some Survivor rounds where best-of-3 or best-of-5 series take place, often enough to accumulate 14 more series played than his closest competition. He has been rock solid in his endeavours, overshadowing Savior's ratio despite Savior's apparent invincibility for nearly two years.
So, Midas wins games, which by definition makes him a winner. But he falls behind on the final legs of the race time and time again. Nada wins games too, lots of them. The difference is, Nada wins titles. Nada succeeds better than anyone else at keeping his level of play current with that of the latest and greatest. Nada is, by definition, a champion.
The phrase 'Clutch Player' is, by definition, Nada.
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Germany / USA16648 Posts
Nice read, Steve!
One thing I feel I have to add though: iloveoov has never lost a final, but Nada has (to oov coincidendally as well as Gorush).
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nada also lost to savior.
IMO, Bisu is the ultimate clutch player, even moreso than nada who's a clutch player as well as a consistent winner. ie he'll win 2 consecutive starleague finals against the strongest players of the moment in the respective mu's, but that doesn't stop him from losing to inter.calm and chrh (fuckin chrh again for emphasis) in proleague :-/. bisu has never lost or been behind in a bo5.
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Nice writeup!
I hope that one day, Midas will be able to overcome his "block" and win something. I agree with iosef that Bisu is definitely a player who plays better under high pressure than in a low-pressure situation like proleague (opposite of Midas, it almost seems)
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please. bisu doesn't even come close to nada. how long have you been following progaming to make a statement like that?
steve, i'm interested in how you define yellow using these standards. surely you can't just sum him up as a choke artist, but where does that leave him?
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 14 2007 14:03 iosef wrote:
nada also lost to savior.
IMO, Bisu is the ultimate clutch player, even moreso than nada who's a clutch player as well as a consistent winner. ie he'll win 2 consecutive starleague finals against the strongest players of the moment in the respective mu's, but that doesn't stop him from losing to inter.calm and chrh (fuckin chrh again for emphasis) in proleague :-/. bisu has never lost or been behind in a bo5.
Bisu hasn't been around long enough to compare to a guy like Nada 
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 14 2007 14:11 SoMuchBetter wrote:
steve, i'm interested in how you define yellow using these standards. surely you can't just sum him up as a choke artist, but where does that leave him?
Yellow is hard to define. For a long time he was just 'the king without a crown'. There was a long period of time where he was a dominant second-best behind Boxer, but he always fell short to the newest sensation. Oov and Xellos were especially hard for him, and he sort of fizzled after that.
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Germany / USA16648 Posts
On August 14 2007 14:03 iosef wrote:
nada also lost to savior.
no shit..
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On August 14 2007 14:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2007 14:03 iosef wrote:
nada also lost to savior.
IMO, Bisu is the ultimate clutch player, even moreso than nada who's a clutch player as well as a consistent winner. ie he'll win 2 consecutive starleague finals against the strongest players of the moment in the respective mu's, but that doesn't stop him from losing to inter.calm and chrh (fuckin chrh again for emphasis) in proleague :-/. bisu has never lost or been behind in a bo5. Bisu hasn't been around long enough to compare to a guy like Nada
of course. nada is the most dominant player in sc history whereas bisu is a new challenger. in terms of the dichotomy you suggested of winner/champion bisu is interesting because he seems to fall completely on the side of 'champion', even with doubts about his ability to win the more mundane games.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 14 2007 14:22 iosef wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2007 14:12 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:On August 14 2007 14:03 iosef wrote:
nada also lost to savior.
IMO, Bisu is the ultimate clutch player, even moreso than nada who's a clutch player as well as a consistent winner. ie he'll win 2 consecutive starleague finals against the strongest players of the moment in the respective mu's, but that doesn't stop him from losing to inter.calm and chrh (fuckin chrh again for emphasis) in proleague :-/. bisu has never lost or been behind in a bo5. Bisu hasn't been around long enough to compare to a guy like Nada of course. nada is the most dominant player in sc history whereas bisu is a new up and comer. in terms of the dichotomy you suggested of winner/champion bisu is interesting because he seems to fall completely on the side of 'champion', even with doubts about his ability to win the more mundane games.
for some people the latter is a prerequisite 
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Haha
You first mentioned this in the IRC XD XD XD
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Woohoo, nice writeup about my favorite player!
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I was just thinking of NaDa and Midas as I read the intro
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Austin10833 Posts
46-11 is such an incredible stat to wrap your head around.
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its tough to say that midas isn't a clutch player when he has so many clutch plays in the proleague
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"80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has."
This is actually almost exactly what you would expect from a player with a 60% game winning ratio playing against an average opponent in a Bo3 (0.6*0.6*0.4*(3 choose 2) + 0.6*0.6 = 0.792). Of course, opponents in Bo3's are generally going to be somewhat above average so this does still indicate some "clutch" ability (though on the other hand I didn't take into account Bo5's which should have an even better ratio). I guess the real story is Midas's relative failure in Bo's.
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 14 2007 15:35 CustomXSpunjah wrote:
its tough to say that midas isn't a clutch player when he has so many clutch plays in the proleague
T1 was one of the worst teams this season, playing for them was essentially a no-stress obligation
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Valhalla18444 Posts
On August 14 2007 15:45 gravity wrote:
"80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has."
This is actually almost exactly what you would expect from a player with a 60% game winning ratio playing against an average opponent in a Bo3 (0.6*0.6*0.4*(3 choose 2) + 0.6*0.6 = 0.792). Of course, opponents in Bo3's are generally going to be somewhat above average so this does still indicate some "clutch" ability (though on the other hand I didn't take into account Bo5's which should have an even better ratio). I guess the real story is Midas's relative failure in Bo's.
i don't see how even remotely applicable because while the formula makes sense only Nada has a real series win ratio this high, and there are several pros with a better game win ratio. there are too many factors at play in something like this for it to be broken down this simplistically. If it were 'to be expected', then Sea would have multiple OSL titles by now.
and Midas invented the FD build that tore protoss a new asshole for a while, he has no shortage of build orders
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On August 14 2007 15:47 FakeSteve[TPR] wrote:Show nested quote +On August 14 2007 15:45 gravity wrote:
"80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has."
This is actually almost exactly what you would expect from a player with a 60% game winning ratio playing against an average opponent in a Bo3 (0.6*0.6*0.4*(3 choose 2) + 0.6*0.6 = 0.792). Of course, opponents in Bo3's are generally going to be somewhat above average so this does still indicate some "clutch" ability (though on the other hand I didn't take into account Bo5's which should have an even better ratio). I guess the real story is Midas's relative failure in Bo's. First of all, that's not even remotely correct because the opponent has a win ratio as well, and most pros hover in the 55-60% range
The average pro must be 50%, if you averaged out Nada's opponents in Bo's I doubt they would be higher than 55%. Also, you have to take into account that a player with .60 win ratio should win 90% of Bo5's against average opposition. (0.6^3 + 0.6^3*0.4*(4 choose 1) + 0.6^3*0.4^2*(5 choose 2) = 0.9072)
edit: I guess it's still impressive if other pro's don't come close. Obviously we don't really know exactly what skill his Bo opponents have been so it's hard to prove whether Nada has shown any special "clutch" ability of if it's just his high general skill shining through. Yet another good reason for having Elo ratings - players with good "clutch" skill could be measured as they would, over time, gain relatively more rating points from Bo matches compared to other strong players.
edit2: also by "Bo's" I've been meaning Best of X's, not Build Orders. Sorry for the confusion.
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Very nice read. Lee Yun YEOL FIGHTING !
Light > Bisu.
Edit:
MIDAS T_T!
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Hot_Bid/TLFE/Nada_by_Fakesteve_big.jpg)
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