wtf you seriously think GGPlay is like a zerg casy? :O

at least ggplay doesnt only excel in one matchup haha.

and he did an amazing come back vs iris, thats pretty clutchy innit

iosef

Israel194 Posts

August 16 2007 03:38 GMT

#102

On August 16 2007 11:25 mrdx wrote:
Gravity has a point but I think his calculation is simply wrong. If a player has an average winning ratio of 60%, his average winning ratio of a BO-x series would still be 60%.
Thus Nada winning ratio in BO-x series is even higher than his average winning ratio, or in another word playing under pressure is usually his advantage much more than his opponent.

not exactly. in a bo3 it's around 65%, around 68% in bo5 and 71% in a bo7. for reference a hypothetical player with an 80% win ratio has a 97% win ratio in bo7, so it the effect is quite significant. for example with sea[shield]'s win ratio of 65% (it's even higher with his recent games) his expected win ratio for bo5 matches is 76.5%, approaching but not surpassing nada's actual results

however the point is that at the level where players actually play bo5's, ie starleague semis and finals, the level of competition is so high that on any given day anyone can get the victory over anyone else. this is why it's so important for a player to develop the special quality that makes a group-stage player or quarterfinalist into a champion.

and re: bisu, watch his game 5 against hwasin and subsequent demolishing of gorush. the guy has been damn near unstoppable when it really counted. who really doubts that, had it been bisu and not flash who progressed in the OSL, ggplay would have been sent home early?

*edit* -

On August 16 2007 12:37 alffla wrote:

Show nested quote +

wtf you seriously think GGPlay is like a zerg casy? :O

at least ggplay doesnt only excel in one matchup haha.

and he did an amazing come back vs iris, thats pretty clutchy innit

ggplay in daum is not as extreme a case as casy was, but I give them about the same chances to win a second starleague. ggplay's zvp is not up to par, although it's likely he could have beaten stork who is similarly not as fearsome pvz. i mean at least casy has progressed past the ro16 many times.

FakeSteve[TPR]

Valhalla18444 Posts

August 16 2007 03:42 GMT

#103

On August 16 2007 12:37 alffla wrote:

Show nested quote +

wtf you seriously think GGPlay is like a zerg casy? :O

at least ggplay doesnt only excel in one matchup haha.

and he did an amazing come back vs iris, thats pretty clutchy innit

in level, yeah. He's a good player, good enough to win a championship with a somewhat lucky draw.

mrdx

Vietnam1555 Posts

August 16 2007 04:47 GMT

#104

On August 16 2007 12:38 iosef wrote:

Show nested quote +

Could you show your calculation in details? Thanks

iosef

Israel194 Posts

August 16 2007 06:07 GMT

#105

sorry to fakesteve for derailing the thread here but this math is interesting to see how probabilities come into play when you consider best of whatever series.

+ Show Spoiler +

for bo3, you have to add 2 cases: win in 2 games or win in 3. for win in 2, it's .6^2 (the probability of win-win). for win in 3, it's .4 * .6^2 (the probability of lose-win-win) * 2 choose 1 (the no. of ways this can happen.) typing this equation into google, ".6^2 + .4 * .6^2 * 2 choose 1" returns 64.8%. you use 2 choose 1 because in all cases the last game is a win, and the loss can be in either game 1 or 2. bo5 is similar except you have to add three cases: the probability of win-win-win + probability of lose-win-win-win * 3 choose 1 (one of the first 3 games was a loss) + probability of lose-lose-win-win-win * 4 choose 2 (2 of the first 4 games were losses).

gravity's mistake was that instead of doing 2 choose 1 e.g. for win-win-lose, he did 3 choose 2, which is incorrect as you can never have the last game as a loss.

kabumpo

25 Posts

August 16 2007 08:19 GMT

#106

On August 14 2007 15:45 gravity wrote:
"80.9% of the time, Nada has won the required number of games before his opponent has."

This is actually almost exactly what you would expect from a player with a 60% game winning ratio playing against an average opponent in a Bo3 (0.6*0.6*0.4*(3 choose 2) + 0.6*0.6 = 0.792). Of course, opponents in Bo3's are generally going to be somewhat above average so this does still indicate some "clutch" ability (though on the other hand I didn't take into account Bo5's which should have an even better ratio). I guess the real story is Midas's relative failure in Bo's.

Gravity, if you want to use probability to see how clutch Nada is then this is how to calculate.
Supposed Nada wins every single game (event W) with probability of 0.6 (or 60%), chance that he wins a best of three match is:
WW + WLW + LWW = 0.6*0.6 + 0.6*0.4*0.6 + 0.4*0.6*0.6 = 0.648 (64.8%)
Chance that he loses is:
LL + LWL + WLL = 0.4*0.4 + 0.4*0.6*0.4 + 0.6*0.4*0.4 = 0.352 (35.2%)
This two chances must sum to 1 to be true.

Thus, in order to achieve a ratio 46W:11L (win rate = 46/57 = 80.7%) in Bo3 or Bo5, Nada must actually be much better in series games than in single ones. This proves FakeSteve's view that Nada is a clutch progamer.

SayaSP

Laos5494 Posts

August 16 2007 19:22 GMT

#107

Nice article Mr. FakeSteve

Jayson X

Switzerland2431 Posts

August 17 2007 12:38 GMT

#108

Nice article! Nada, Oov, Boxer, Midas, Canata, Sea, Iris, Hwasin, Casy. If you're into terran you sure have lots of characters to chear for.

Midas is like a monster trapped in a huggy bear comstume. I love the "oh-oh" moment. The camera switch to midas face, kinda odd look and you know something HAS to go wrong now. You sit there infront of your tv and you start shaking your head. You can't understand it, cause you've seen how good this boy is. It's not sad, it's just confusing.

When nada loses you feel there's a different kind of problem. If he's "free" he can play either simply dominant or incredible breathtaking. He is able to combine boxers micro with nearly oovs macro and make a huge multitask bloodbath out of it. So fast even the spectator can hardly follow.
But when he loses it's as if he's carrying a fuckload of problems on his shoulders. Too much unnecesary stuff, too much pressure. Sometimes you get the impression he believes if he can't make it he would lose everything he ever had. You can see it on his face. I'm usualy yelling CHILL MAN CHILL!

Hot_Bid

Braavos36375 Posts

August 17 2007 16:55 GMT

#109

nice post =)

ManaBlue

Canada10458 Posts

August 17 2007 22:04 GMT

#110

Steve, this is a beautiful article. I've been busy as hell lately and not keeping up with SC like I usually like to, and I just noticed this article now after catching up on games and watching midas blow it in a joke series against free from WCG. It's like someone took all my frustration with the emo terran and articulated it perfectly.

Excellent article, with perfect timing. Your insight into players and their success is top notch. Nice work dude.

FakeSteve[TPR]

Valhalla18444 Posts

August 18 2007 00:51 GMT

#111

Thanks homie

I actually spent a lot of time on it, there were a bunch of other things i wrote that didnt make it into the finalize article because they were irrelevant or too wordy or what have you

i actually enjoyed writing this one more than the Sea article