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All book discussion in this thread is now allowed. |
On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough?
I thought they looked kind of dorky as well, in terms of the facial structure. I guess there's no need to make them "scary" per se, but his face kind of reminded me of something from The Neverending Story or some similar 90's muppet movie.
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OK, I've been giving this a lot of thought. There are some people that have so far made too many enemies, and will pay for it... probably by death. There are others in risky positions. There are people that are compromised. So, here goes my attempt at crystal-balling the results of season 3:
+ Show Spoiler [Risk of death analysis] +Robb, which is stuck between a rock and a hard place with too many enemies, is my target for the next "big" character to die. He has most of the major kingdoms against him, the gatekeeper to his realm pissed off at him, and his allies while loyal do not seem to be a very resourceful bunch; just good warriors. Beyond that, there's the slight problem of a HUGE F#$@ING ZOMBIE ARMY AT HIS DOORSTEP. He's going against Joffrey, and now it seems that the Tywin has helped consolidate his control, making this seem futile. The only way for the north to survive is with Robb dead. He's just too honorable to do the smart thing for his people. His honor will be his downfall, he will try until he is defeated, and the only way for him to accept defeat is in death. This leaves no options for him to survive. I don't really mind, I find him quite boring.
Unfortunately, the second person with the cards stacked against them is Tyrion. Tywin wants him forgotten because he was a great Hand, and has proven not only his worth, but his valor. The only thing more dangerous to someone in power is someone competent and popular, and Tywin loves his power (as we could see with his willingness to burn villages to get a point through, and many smaller examples). Cersei is the queen, and she wants him dead. She was willing to risk the entire city just to kill him. And don't get me started on Joffrey. His unwillingness to go away from his family in the seat of power will cause him to pay. There's also the people he fucked over while being Hand of the King, which are smaller enemies, but much more adept at plotting. Don't get me wrong, he's crafty, and has great political instincts, but his death would make too many people in much more powerful positions than Tyrion happy. Things are going to go from bad to worse for him, but unless at least two of the three I mentioned die, there is no way for him to survive; unless all three die, he will always be tormented. His lack of power at the moment is the only thing that makes me think that next season won't start out with him being assassinated.
Then there's Joffrey. While he has powerful allies, his death would be convenient. Robb, Stannis, Littlefinger, Shae, the army who has seen his true face running from battle, the people he rules over, they all want him dead. With good reason too, which is why it would be convenient for his own family to let him die. I would expect the only one who truly would help him out of it being "the right thing to do" and not other reasons to be Tyrion, who he hates. His advantage is that other than Littlefinger, he is well protected against them at the moment. I added Shae, because she seems to be able enough to try to kill him for Tyrion's (and perhaps Sansa's) sake. She was clever enough to warn Tyrion of the dangers of staying in King's Landing, but as he's not going to leave, despite him, she may take matters into her own hands. Littlefinger will probably not take action, due to now becoming a powerful Lord due to Joffrey. Stannis can use his magic-hax to destroy him, but seems to be clever enough to understand the real problem is Tywin, not Joffrey. Still, it's a coinflip here.
Littlefinger has made some powerful allies, but I doubt that the Lannisters see him as anything other than a pawn. As long as he remains a lord, he is a lord in their name. Their protection is not guaranteed. But his enemy list is rather big, and it includes the Starks, Tyrion (who is clever enough to understand that if he wants his power back, he is a huge obstancle), Cersei (who has kept him alive knowing that she is MUCH more powerful in season 1, something that changed since), but worst of all, Varys. Varys is perhaps the most dangerous person in the series, and has started sending tendrils into Baelish's organisation. He may not want him dead, but he is the only one who is capable of ensuring that death. The question remains, what would he prefer; to remove the only person in the King's court who is in the same level of political adeptness as him, therefor solidifying his power and becoming the most powerful person in King's Landing save Tywin, OR, to use his abilities to infiltrate and compromise his organisation (which is far more dangerous, but more rewarding in the long term). Considering Varys doesn't seem to be eager to kill, I would give him a 20% chance to kill him, and Cersei another 5%. That would make his death a one in four chance.
It would take a miracle for Tyrion to survive, Robb cannot possibly survive, Joffrey is a coin toss, and Baelish will probably survive.
So, now we have a balance of power. If Joffrey dies, Robb goes from "doomed" to "survival very unlikely", and Tyrion goes from "survival very unlikely" to "50/50", and Littlefinger remains the same. That gives Robb a 5% survival rate through the next season, Tyrion a 30%, Joffrey a 50%, and Baelish at 75%.
+ Show Spoiler [Risk of hard knocks analysis] +Now, let's take into account not just death, but the possibility of lot of s$#@ things happening to them. If Robb survives, Joffrey is dead, but his other enemies remain. He will be bound by honor to take revenge on the Greyjoys. And the list will go on. He will be at permanent risk until his death. That makes the chances of him getting out of this unscathed ridiculously unlikely.
Theon seems to have sunken as low as he can get. His dreams have been smashed, and he is taken home humiliated. But don't let that fool you, he's just come back to a father that despises him utterly humiliated, lacks the respect of his people, and gained the hate of the Starks, his former allies. Ouch. But what remains to be seen is how much lower can he be pounded by those people, or if they will just leave him as is. I'd say he's sunk just as much as he can, but there's a chance that he will be pounded even harder.
Tyrion, who already has his face sliced, been removed from power, and given no credit for what he has done... Well, he can sink much further. Cersei will do her best to torment him, and considering the amount of sway they have, horrible things are in the future for him. His chances of getting out without further pain are very slim.
Joffrey is King. If he survives, he will continue to reign as King. There is no chance for him to be removed from the top of the food chain without death.
Littlefinger on the other hand seems to be at the peak of his power. He is lord of Harrenhal, a position which will take a ton of effort for him to consolidate when the Lannisters view him as a useful pawn and nothing more. Considering Varys, Tyrion and Cersei being in the list of enemies, it seems he may be overreaching. There's a 50% chance of success for him to consolidate his power, and that is giving him HUGE credit. It would require him to marry into one of the seven houses (Sansa is a possibility), which would seem unlikely, or pull more rabbits out of his hat in the service of the Lannisters, and to appease Cersei. No small task.
Now, add characters that are in risky positions, but not fatally so.
Catelyn is in the unenviable position of the person trying to minimize the damage to her children. She will very probably fail. There are the chances of death of Robb being a crushing blow, and beyond that, she may be forced into marrying Littlefinger to help her children... a man she now despises. Ouch. I leave this as an option because that is her only "in" to the current center of power of the seven kingdoms. Robb burned all other bridges at that, so there we have it. That makes her chance at going unscathed only slightly better than Robb's.
Sansa is in grave danger of being married off to someone like The Mountain, or being abused as Joffrey's plaything. This is the reason I raised the possibility of her marrying Littlefinger. She will have to marry a power player to be safe. Considering that out of the bachelors in this position, the only two left are Tyrion and Baelish, and Tyrion has Shae, this seems that barring some miracle, the best outcome for her is marrying someone she hates and living in fear of him for the rest of her life. Very unlikely she gets out unscathed.
Cersei has a lot of enemies, but very powerful allies in all the right places. She seems rather safe, making it very unlikely she will suffer through too much shit... But, Joffrey's position and chances of death count at that. And considering how fiercely protective she is of her children, this will be a huge blow. So her chances are that of Joffrey's survival.
Bronn is a tough-as-coffin-nails survivor, and never allowed himself to get used to riches and spoils, so he really can't be hurt. His only problem is his close association with Tyrion, but somehow, I don't see someone as humble as him standing out as a nail to be hammered. Still, that association may cause him trouble, so it's a coinflip.
Tywin seems untouchable... but he's no politician. He's possibly the most capable general out there (Robb and Stannis being his only competition), but we saw how much that helped the hand of the king prior to Tyrion. He is not as honorable as Ned, so that makes his chances better, but still; he has a good chance of an oversight causing him a lot of trouble. It seems unlikely, but not as much as it seems from a surface view of things.
Then there's Daenerys. Her dragons make her a target, and she lacks a sizable army. Her family name makes her extremely unpopular with the current seat of power. I don't think she'll die, she's too useful alive for that. But captured by the Lannisters and forced to marry Jamie, being separated from her dragons, and her people destroyed? This is an option. Not all possible captors will be as incompetent as Pyat Pree (seriously, derive powers from dragons, piss off those said dragons and their mother, putting the said pissed off mother with the dragons in the same room as him, and expecting to survive; talk about delusional), and Tywin seems to be very well suited for this. Still, it seems unlikely. She is still too small a target to be hunted by the big names, and seems surrounded by the right people to carry on. Most likely she will continue rising in power even faster than her dragons, but we must allow for the unexpected. Unlikely to be hurt.
Jamie Lannister needs not fear death. He has a capable protector, and once in King's Landing, he is Tywin's natural successor. Still, he's a prisoner at the moment, not at King's Landing yet, and has enemies in the Starks.
So, the results of my current analysis are as follows:
Chances to get through the next season unscathed: Robb at 1%, Catelyn 2%, Tyrion 5%, Sansa 10%, Baelish 35%, Theon 40%, Joffrey 50%, Cersei 50%, Bronn 50%, Tywin 75%, Khaleesi 80%, Jamie 90%.
+ Show Spoiler [Short paragraph of people on the rise] +At the moment, Stannis and the Starks not named Rob, Catelyn or Sansa seem to be at low points. They are survivors and well protected, so they can only go up. Jon Snow seems to be in a great position, he has earned the respect of his (no longer) captors, a beautiful woman, and is going to meet up with someone who on the surface, seems to be a lot like him. And he always has the Watch to fall back on. Add Daenerys to these guys, and they seem to be on the list of people that are most likely to see their situations improve. Arya is a wildcard here. She's clever, has great survival instincts, and some great allies. I really wish she'd have gone to study under the Faceless Men, and that is still an option. I suppose her importance in positions of power to be great, but not in the next two seasons or so.
tl;dr: Robb is a dead man walking, Tyrion is better off, but in high risk, Joffrey is a coinflip, and life is about to take a turn for the worse for a LOT of people.
edit: Formatting for not taking up the whole page.
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On June 18 2012 21:10 Kazius wrote:OK, I've been giving this a lot of thought. There are some people that have so far made too many enemies, and will pay for it... probably by death. There are others in risky positions. There are people that are compromised. So, here goes my attempt at crystal-balling the results of season 3: + Show Spoiler [Risk of death analysis] +Robb, which is stuck between a rock and a hard place with too many enemies, is my target for the next "big" character to die. He has most of the major kingdoms against him, the gatekeeper to his realm pissed off at him, and his allies while loyal do not seem to be a very resourceful bunch; just good warriors. Beyond that, there's the slight problem of a HUGE F#$@ING ZOMBIE ARMY AT HIS DOORSTEP. He's going against Joffrey, and now it seems that the Tywin has helped consolidate his control, making this seem futile. The only way for the north to survive is with Robb dead. He's just too honorable to do the smart thing for his people. His honor will be his downfall, he will try until he is defeated, and the only way for him to accept defeat is in death. This leaves no options for him to survive. I don't really mind, I find him quite boring.
Unfortunately, the second person with the cards stacked against them is Tyrion. Tywin wants him forgotten because he was a great Hand, and has proven not only his worth, but his valor. The only thing more dangerous to someone in power is someone competent and popular, and Tywin loves his power (as we could see with his willingness to burn villages to get a point through, and many smaller examples). Cersei is the queen, and she wants him dead. She was willing to risk the entire city just to kill him. And don't get me started on Joffrey. His unwillingness to go away from his family in the seat of power will cause him to pay. There's also the people he fucked over while being Hand of the King, which are smaller enemies, but much more adept at plotting. Don't get me wrong, he's crafty, and has great political instincts, but his death would make too many people in much more powerful positions than Tyrion happy. Things are going to go from bad to worse for him, but unless at least two of the three I mentioned die, there is no way for him to survive; unless all three die, he will always be tormented. His lack of power at the moment is the only thing that makes me think that next season won't start out with him being assassinated.
Then there's Joffrey. While he has powerful allies, his death would be convenient. Robb, Stannis, Littlefinger, Shae, the army who has seen his true face running from battle, the people he rules over, they all want him dead. With good reason too, which is why it would be convenient for his own family to let him die. I would expect the only one who truly would help him out of it being "the right thing to do" and not other reasons to be Tyrion, who he hates. His advantage is that other than Littlefinger, he is well protected against them at the moment. I added Shae, because she seems to be able enough to try to kill him for Tyrion's (and perhaps Sansa's) sake. She was clever enough to warn Tyrion of the dangers of staying in King's Landing, but as he's not going to leave, despite him, she may take matters into her own hands. Littlefinger will probably not take action, due to now becoming a powerful Lord due to Joffrey. Stannis can use his magic-hax to destroy him, but seems to be clever enough to understand the real problem is Tywin, not Joffrey. Still, it's a coinflip here.
Littlefinger has made some powerful allies, but I doubt that the Lannisters see him as anything other than a pawn. As long as he remains a lord, he is a lord in their name. Their protection is not guaranteed. But his enemy list is rather big, and it includes the Starks, Tyrion (who is clever enough to understand that if he wants his power back, he is a huge obstancle), Cersei (who has kept him alive knowing that she is MUCH more powerful in season 1, something that changed since), but worst of all, Varys. Varys is perhaps the most dangerous person in the series, and has started sending tendrils into Baelish's organisation. He may not want him dead, but he is the only one who is capable of ensuring that death. The question remains, what would he prefer; to remove the only person in the King's court who is in the same level of political adeptness as him, therefor solidifying his power and becoming the most powerful person in King's Landing save Tywin, OR, to use his abilities to infiltrate and compromise his organisation (which is far more dangerous, but more rewarding in the long term). Considering Varys doesn't seem to be eager to kill, I would give him a 20% chance to kill him, and Cersei another 5%. That would make his death a one in four chance.
It would take a miracle for Tyrion to survive, Robb cannot possibly survive, Joffrey is a coin toss, and Baelish will probably survive. So, now we have a balance of power. If Joffrey dies, Robb goes from "doomed" to "survival very unlikely", and Tyrion goes from "survival very unlikely" to "50/50", and Littlefinger remains the same. That gives Robb a 5% survival rate through the next season, Tyrion a 30%, Joffrey a 50%, and Baelish at 75%. + Show Spoiler [Risk of hard knocks analysis] +Now, let's take into account not just death, but the possibility of lot of s$#@ things happening to them. If Robb survives, Joffrey is dead, but his other enemies remain. He will be bound by honor to take revenge on the Greyjoys. And the list will go on. He will be at permanent risk until his death. That makes the chances of him getting out of this unscathed ridiculously unlikely.
Theon seems to have sunken as low as he can get. His dreams have been smashed, and he is taken home humiliated. But don't let that fool you, he's just come back to a father that despises him utterly humiliated, lacks the respect of his people, and gained the hate of the Starks, his former allies. Ouch. But what remains to be seen is how much lower can he be pounded by those people, or if they will just leave him as is. I'd say he's sunk just as much as he can, but there's a chance that he will be pounded even harder.
Tyrion, who already has his face sliced, been removed from power, and given no credit for what he has done... Well, he can sink much further. Cersei will do her best to torment him, and considering the amount of sway they have, horrible things are in the future for him. His chances of getting out without further pain are very slim.
Joffrey is King. If he survives, he will continue to reign as King. There is no chance for him to be removed from the top of the food chain without death.
Littlefinger on the other hand seems to be at the peak of his power. He is lord of Harrenhal, a position which will take a ton of effort for him to consolidate when the Lannisters view him as a useful pawn and nothing more. Considering Varys, Tyrion and Cersei being in the list of enemies, it seems he may be overreaching. There's a 50% chance of success for him to consolidate his power, and that is giving him HUGE credit. It would require him to marry into one of the seven houses (Sansa is a possibility), which would seem unlikely, or pull more rabbits out of his hat in the service of the Lannisters, and to appease Cersei. No small task.
Now, add characters that are in risky positions, but not fatally so.
Catelyn is in the unenviable position of the person trying to minimize the damage to her children. She will very probably fail. There are the chances of death of Robb being a crushing blow, and beyond that, she may be forced into marrying Littlefinger to help her children... a man she now despises. Ouch. I leave this as an option because that is her only "in" to the current center of power of the seven kingdoms. Robb burned all other bridges at that, so there we have it. That makes her chance at going unscathed only slightly better than Robb's.
Sansa is in grave danger of being married off to someone like The Mountain, or being abused as Joffrey's plaything. This is the reason I raised the possibility of her marrying Littlefinger. She will have to marry a power player to be safe. Considering that out of the bachelors in this position, the only two left are Tyrion and Baelish, and Tyrion has Shae, this seems that barring some miracle, the best outcome for her is marrying someone she hates and living in fear of him for the rest of her life. Very unlikely she gets out unscathed.
Cersei has a lot of enemies, but very powerful allies in all the right places. She seems rather safe, making it very unlikely she will suffer through too much shit... But, Joffrey's position and chances of death count at that. And considering how fiercely protective she is of her children, this will be a huge blow. So her chances are that of Joffrey's survival.
Bronn is a tough-as-coffin-nails survivor, and never allowed himself to get used to riches and spoils, so he really can't be hurt. His only problem is his close association with Tyrion, but somehow, I don't see someone as humble as him standing out as a nail to be hammered. Still, that association may cause him trouble, so it's a coinflip.
Tywin seems untouchable... but he's no politician. He's possibly the most capable general out there (Robb and Stannis being his only competition), but we saw how much that helped the hand of the king prior to Tyrion. He is not as honorable as Ned, so that makes his chances better, but still; he has a good chance of an oversight causing him a lot of trouble. It seems unlikely, but not as much as it seems from a surface view of things.
Then there's Daenerys. Her dragons make her a target, and she lacks a sizable army. Her family name makes her extremely unpopular with the current seat of power. I don't think she'll die, she's too useful alive for that. But captured by the Lannisters and forced to marry Jamie, being separated from her dragons, and her people destroyed? This is an option. Not all possible captors will be as incompetent as Pyat Pree (seriously, derive powers from dragons, piss off those said dragons and their mother, putting the said pissed off mother with the dragons in the same room as him, and expecting to survive; talk about delusional), and Tywin seems to be very well suited for this. Still, it seems unlikely. She is still too small a target to be hunted by the big names, and seems surrounded by the right people to carry on. Most likely she will continue rising in power even faster than her dragons, but we must allow for the unexpected. Unlikely to be hurt.
Jamie Lannister needs not fear death. He has a capable protector, and once in King's Landing, he is Tywin's natural successor. Still, he's a prisoner at the moment, not at King's Landing yet, and has enemies in the Starks. So, the results of my current analysis are as follows: Chances to get through the next season unscathed: Robb at 1%, Catelyn 2%, Tyrion 5%, Sansa 10%, Baelish 35%, Theon 40%, Joffrey 50%, Cersei 50%, Bronn 50%, Tywin 75%, Khaleesi 80%, Jamie 90%. + Show Spoiler [Short paragraph of people on the rise] +At the moment, Stannis and the Starks not named Rob, Catelyn or Sansa seem to be at low points. They are survivors and well protected, so they can only go up. Jon Snow seems to be in a great position, he has earned the respect of his (no longer) captors, a beautiful woman, and is going to meet up with someone who on the surface, seems to be a lot like him. And he always has the Watch to fall back on. Add Daenerys to these guys, and they seem to be on the list of people that are most likely to see their situations improve. Arya is a wildcard here. She's clever, has great survival instincts, and some great allies. I really wish she'd have gone to study under the Faceless Men, and that is still an option. I suppose her importance in positions of power to be great, but not in the next two seasons or so. tl;dr: Robb is a dead man walking, Tyrion is better off, but in high risk, Joffrey is a coinflip, and life is about to take a turn for the worse for a LOT of people. edit: Formatting for not taking up the whole page.
i wish this thread allowed book discussion because now i want to post subtle hints describing you how wrong or right you are
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On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough?
![[image loading]](http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5euz7iLkT1rpn88c.jpg)
This looks badass to you? To me he looks like he's both high and trying to whistle :-D Frankly, I had been waiting for white walkers ever since the great very first scene of the first episode of season one, but this scene was quite a disappointment.
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On June 19 2012 02:12 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough? This looks badass to you? To me he looks like he's both high and trying to whistle :-D Frankly, I had been waiting for white walkers ever since the great very first scene of the first episode of season one, but this scene was quite a disappointment.
Gotta agree. Season 1 made me think of them as and icy version of predator. This just looks like old man winter.
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On June 19 2012 05:13 scudst0rm wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2012 02:12 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough? This looks badass to you? To me he looks like he's both high and trying to whistle :-D Frankly, I had been waiting for white walkers ever since the great very first scene of the first episode of season one, but this scene was quite a disappointment. Gotta agree. Season 1 made me think of them as and icy version of predator. This just looks like old man winter.
I loved the books I love the show but this scene was slightly underwhelming to me as well. :-/
S9Ep9 makes up for it though by being the best single episode of any show ever.
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On June 18 2012 21:10 Kazius wrote:OK, I've been giving this a lot of thought. There are some people that have so far made too many enemies, and will pay for it... probably by death. There are others in risky positions. There are people that are compromised. So, here goes my attempt at crystal-balling the results of season 3: + Show Spoiler [Risk of death analysis] +Robb, which is stuck between a rock and a hard place with too many enemies, is my target for the next "big" character to die. He has most of the major kingdoms against him, the gatekeeper to his realm pissed off at him, and his allies while loyal do not seem to be a very resourceful bunch; just good warriors. Beyond that, there's the slight problem of a HUGE F#$@ING ZOMBIE ARMY AT HIS DOORSTEP. He's going against Joffrey, and now it seems that the Tywin has helped consolidate his control, making this seem futile. The only way for the north to survive is with Robb dead. He's just too honorable to do the smart thing for his people. His honor will be his downfall, he will try until he is defeated, and the only way for him to accept defeat is in death. This leaves no options for him to survive. I don't really mind, I find him quite boring.
Unfortunately, the second person with the cards stacked against them is Tyrion. Tywin wants him forgotten because he was a great Hand, and has proven not only his worth, but his valor. The only thing more dangerous to someone in power is someone competent and popular, and Tywin loves his power (as we could see with his willingness to burn villages to get a point through, and many smaller examples). Cersei is the queen, and she wants him dead. She was willing to risk the entire city just to kill him. And don't get me started on Joffrey. His unwillingness to go away from his family in the seat of power will cause him to pay. There's also the people he fucked over while being Hand of the King, which are smaller enemies, but much more adept at plotting. Don't get me wrong, he's crafty, and has great political instincts, but his death would make too many people in much more powerful positions than Tyrion happy. Things are going to go from bad to worse for him, but unless at least two of the three I mentioned die, there is no way for him to survive; unless all three die, he will always be tormented. His lack of power at the moment is the only thing that makes me think that next season won't start out with him being assassinated.
Then there's Joffrey. While he has powerful allies, his death would be convenient. Robb, Stannis, Littlefinger, Shae, the army who has seen his true face running from battle, the people he rules over, they all want him dead. With good reason too, which is why it would be convenient for his own family to let him die. I would expect the only one who truly would help him out of it being "the right thing to do" and not other reasons to be Tyrion, who he hates. His advantage is that other than Littlefinger, he is well protected against them at the moment. I added Shae, because she seems to be able enough to try to kill him for Tyrion's (and perhaps Sansa's) sake. She was clever enough to warn Tyrion of the dangers of staying in King's Landing, but as he's not going to leave, despite him, she may take matters into her own hands. Littlefinger will probably not take action, due to now becoming a powerful Lord due to Joffrey. Stannis can use his magic-hax to destroy him, but seems to be clever enough to understand the real problem is Tywin, not Joffrey. Still, it's a coinflip here.
Littlefinger has made some powerful allies, but I doubt that the Lannisters see him as anything other than a pawn. As long as he remains a lord, he is a lord in their name. Their protection is not guaranteed. But his enemy list is rather big, and it includes the Starks, Tyrion (who is clever enough to understand that if he wants his power back, he is a huge obstancle), Cersei (who has kept him alive knowing that she is MUCH more powerful in season 1, something that changed since), but worst of all, Varys. Varys is perhaps the most dangerous person in the series, and has started sending tendrils into Baelish's organisation. He may not want him dead, but he is the only one who is capable of ensuring that death. The question remains, what would he prefer; to remove the only person in the King's court who is in the same level of political adeptness as him, therefor solidifying his power and becoming the most powerful person in King's Landing save Tywin, OR, to use his abilities to infiltrate and compromise his organisation (which is far more dangerous, but more rewarding in the long term). Considering Varys doesn't seem to be eager to kill, I would give him a 20% chance to kill him, and Cersei another 5%. That would make his death a one in four chance.
It would take a miracle for Tyrion to survive, Robb cannot possibly survive, Joffrey is a coin toss, and Baelish will probably survive. So, now we have a balance of power. If Joffrey dies, Robb goes from "doomed" to "survival very unlikely", and Tyrion goes from "survival very unlikely" to "50/50", and Littlefinger remains the same. That gives Robb a 5% survival rate through the next season, Tyrion a 30%, Joffrey a 50%, and Baelish at 75%. + Show Spoiler [Risk of hard knocks analysis] +Now, let's take into account not just death, but the possibility of lot of s$#@ things happening to them. If Robb survives, Joffrey is dead, but his other enemies remain. He will be bound by honor to take revenge on the Greyjoys. And the list will go on. He will be at permanent risk until his death. That makes the chances of him getting out of this unscathed ridiculously unlikely.
Theon seems to have sunken as low as he can get. His dreams have been smashed, and he is taken home humiliated. But don't let that fool you, he's just come back to a father that despises him utterly humiliated, lacks the respect of his people, and gained the hate of the Starks, his former allies. Ouch. But what remains to be seen is how much lower can he be pounded by those people, or if they will just leave him as is. I'd say he's sunk just as much as he can, but there's a chance that he will be pounded even harder.
Tyrion, who already has his face sliced, been removed from power, and given no credit for what he has done... Well, he can sink much further. Cersei will do her best to torment him, and considering the amount of sway they have, horrible things are in the future for him. His chances of getting out without further pain are very slim.
Joffrey is King. If he survives, he will continue to reign as King. There is no chance for him to be removed from the top of the food chain without death.
Littlefinger on the other hand seems to be at the peak of his power. He is lord of Harrenhal, a position which will take a ton of effort for him to consolidate when the Lannisters view him as a useful pawn and nothing more. Considering Varys, Tyrion and Cersei being in the list of enemies, it seems he may be overreaching. There's a 50% chance of success for him to consolidate his power, and that is giving him HUGE credit. It would require him to marry into one of the seven houses (Sansa is a possibility), which would seem unlikely, or pull more rabbits out of his hat in the service of the Lannisters, and to appease Cersei. No small task.
Now, add characters that are in risky positions, but not fatally so.
Catelyn is in the unenviable position of the person trying to minimize the damage to her children. She will very probably fail. There are the chances of death of Robb being a crushing blow, and beyond that, she may be forced into marrying Littlefinger to help her children... a man she now despises. Ouch. I leave this as an option because that is her only "in" to the current center of power of the seven kingdoms. Robb burned all other bridges at that, so there we have it. That makes her chance at going unscathed only slightly better than Robb's.
Sansa is in grave danger of being married off to someone like The Mountain, or being abused as Joffrey's plaything. This is the reason I raised the possibility of her marrying Littlefinger. She will have to marry a power player to be safe. Considering that out of the bachelors in this position, the only two left are Tyrion and Baelish, and Tyrion has Shae, this seems that barring some miracle, the best outcome for her is marrying someone she hates and living in fear of him for the rest of her life. Very unlikely she gets out unscathed.
Cersei has a lot of enemies, but very powerful allies in all the right places. She seems rather safe, making it very unlikely she will suffer through too much shit... But, Joffrey's position and chances of death count at that. And considering how fiercely protective she is of her children, this will be a huge blow. So her chances are that of Joffrey's survival.
Bronn is a tough-as-coffin-nails survivor, and never allowed himself to get used to riches and spoils, so he really can't be hurt. His only problem is his close association with Tyrion, but somehow, I don't see someone as humble as him standing out as a nail to be hammered. Still, that association may cause him trouble, so it's a coinflip.
Tywin seems untouchable... but he's no politician. He's possibly the most capable general out there (Robb and Stannis being his only competition), but we saw how much that helped the hand of the king prior to Tyrion. He is not as honorable as Ned, so that makes his chances better, but still; he has a good chance of an oversight causing him a lot of trouble. It seems unlikely, but not as much as it seems from a surface view of things.
Then there's Daenerys. Her dragons make her a target, and she lacks a sizable army. Her family name makes her extremely unpopular with the current seat of power. I don't think she'll die, she's too useful alive for that. But captured by the Lannisters and forced to marry Jamie, being separated from her dragons, and her people destroyed? This is an option. Not all possible captors will be as incompetent as Pyat Pree (seriously, derive powers from dragons, piss off those said dragons and their mother, putting the said pissed off mother with the dragons in the same room as him, and expecting to survive; talk about delusional), and Tywin seems to be very well suited for this. Still, it seems unlikely. She is still too small a target to be hunted by the big names, and seems surrounded by the right people to carry on. Most likely she will continue rising in power even faster than her dragons, but we must allow for the unexpected. Unlikely to be hurt.
Jamie Lannister needs not fear death. He has a capable protector, and once in King's Landing, he is Tywin's natural successor. Still, he's a prisoner at the moment, not at King's Landing yet, and has enemies in the Starks. So, the results of my current analysis are as follows: Chances to get through the next season unscathed: Robb at 1%, Catelyn 2%, Tyrion 5%, Sansa 10%, Baelish 35%, Theon 40%, Joffrey 50%, Cersei 50%, Bronn 50%, Tywin 75%, Khaleesi 80%, Jamie 90%. + Show Spoiler [Short paragraph of people on the rise] +At the moment, Stannis and the Starks not named Rob, Catelyn or Sansa seem to be at low points. They are survivors and well protected, so they can only go up. Jon Snow seems to be in a great position, he has earned the respect of his (no longer) captors, a beautiful woman, and is going to meet up with someone who on the surface, seems to be a lot like him. And he always has the Watch to fall back on. Add Daenerys to these guys, and they seem to be on the list of people that are most likely to see their situations improve. Arya is a wildcard here. She's clever, has great survival instincts, and some great allies. I really wish she'd have gone to study under the Faceless Men, and that is still an option. I suppose her importance in positions of power to be great, but not in the next two seasons or so. tl;dr: Robb is a dead man walking, Tyrion is better off, but in high risk, Joffrey is a coinflip, and life is about to take a turn for the worse for a LOT of people. edit: Formatting for not taking up the whole page.
man I want to spoil you so much right now haha
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On June 19 2012 05:13 scudst0rm wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2012 02:12 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough? This looks badass to you? To me he looks like he's both high and trying to whistle :-D Frankly, I had been waiting for white walkers ever since the great very first scene of the first episode of season one, but this scene was quite a disappointment. Gotta agree. Season 1 made me think of them as and icy version of predator. This just looks like old man winter.
looks like we got some ff characters up in here
![[image loading]](http://images.wikia.com/finalfantasy/images/a/ae/Kimahri.jpg)
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Tell me Kazius, what do you think will happen to the nurse that Rob's with? If she gets out marriage wise, etc.
As for Brianne, here's my two cents:
+ Show Spoiler +I have a feeling Brianne will die when she drops off Jamie. She's pretty honorable, seems about right for her to kick the bucket and Jamie to be set free.
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Loved S2, new i would. But with a lot of people here I felt the last scene of ep 10 was pretty underwhelming. Also what was up with the white walker not attacking the fat guy. He just liked looked at him and didn't seem to care. Did i miss something here, did he run back up the mountain with everyone else and i missed it or something??
Btw favorite scene was ep 9 of this season. So badass.
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On June 19 2012 02:12 kwizach wrote:Show nested quote +On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough? This looks badass to you? To me he looks like he's both high and trying to whistle :-D Frankly, I had been waiting for white walkers ever since the great very first scene of the first episode of season one, but this scene was quite a disappointment.
I think the version is good. It makes it so that they aren't some mindless beast of badass, but it they could be intelligent beings that is even more dangerous. What do they want? A beast mostly hunts for food. What do the dead want? I understand what you mean and want but I think you must see this point of view.
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I don't know if he needed to look badass, but he at least could/should have looked more realistic — more dirt and asymmetry, less smoother lines and more small-scale squiggles/chaos. Or maybe at least just wearing clothes like the previous encounters with them.
On another note — I'm thinking it may have already been mentioned, but it's too much posts to search through:
How were Theon's men expecting to get out of the keep (or how did they)? Wasn't Theon (and the guy that told him) the only one[s] who knew how to get out alive?
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On June 19 2012 15:51 Xapti wrote:
IOn another note — I'm thinking it may have already been mentioned, but it's too much posts to search through:
How were Theon's men expecting to get out of the keep (or how did they)? Wasn't Theon (and the guy that told him) the only one[s] who knew how to get out alive?
Robb stated that any Ironborn but Theon could leave if they surrendered.
As for the WW, I thought they looked more primal in the first episode, which was much closer to how I pictured them in my head. In the light of day they just look too... familiar, and therefore not that frightening.
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Have these been posted? I'm currently throwing money at the screen
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On June 19 2012 05:17 DamnCats wrote:Show nested quote +On June 19 2012 05:13 scudst0rm wrote:On June 19 2012 02:12 kwizach wrote:On June 18 2012 15:17 -Archangel- wrote:On June 18 2012 11:47 kwizach wrote:
Am I the only one who felt the final scene with the white walkers was EXTREMELY underwhelming? I get that their wights can't really look more menacing than regular zombies, but I expected the white walkers themselves to look way more badass than this. Riding dead horses, using ice weapon and ice armor and having a screechy voice similar to LotR flying beasts is not badass enough? This looks badass to you? To me he looks like he's both high and trying to whistle :-D Frankly, I had been waiting for white walkers ever since the great very first scene of the first episode of season one, but this scene was quite a disappointment. Gotta agree. Season 1 made me think of them as and icy version of predator. This just looks like old man winter. I loved the books I love the show but this scene was slightly underwhelming to me as well. :-/ S9Ep9 makes up for it though by being the best single episode of any show ever.
tell me your secrets of time travel that I may watch S9E9 too
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Compared to the Tower of Qarth finale with the dragonfire, the white walker army was awesome.
Daenarys and Robb could really be replaced with wooden poles in the show.
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I found the Tower of Quarth to be underwhelming as a whole.
"Oh hey, big round thing. Oh, it's okay, the front door leads to where we're keeping the only three live dragons in the WORLD chained up. No big deal"
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I found the whitewalker scene to be awesome. Showing them was like saying, "So yeah, next season...things are about to get worse for everyone." I liked how the leader looked. Like he can strategize an attack.
One thing I like about the show, is that in season 2 the nobles all kept saying, "Whatever the problem might be, it isn't whitewalkers and if there is a problem, the men of the north have it. We're fine." Then bam! Whitewalkers. I'm excited for next season and to start the books next month.
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On June 20 2012 05:26 NexRex wrote:
I found the whitewalker scene to be awesome. Showing them was like saying, "So yeah, next season...things are about to get worse for everyone." I liked how the leader looked. Like he can strategize an attack.
One thing I like about the show, is that in season 2 the nobles all kept saying, "Whatever the problem might be, it isn't whitewalkers and if there is a problem, the men of the north have it. We're fine." Then bam! Whitewalkers. I'm excited for next season and to start the books next month.
With Robb's rebellion, problem in the north is a problem for Robb, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend rule applies for the Lannisters, Baratheons and Greyjoys. I doubt any of them would care the slightest if the whites and the wildlings invaded the north. The white walkers don't look like fellows who desire the sun in the south anyway. They might melt for all we know ^^
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On June 20 2012 08:20 Euronyme wrote:Show nested quote +On June 20 2012 05:26 NexRex wrote:
I found the whitewalker scene to be awesome. Showing them was like saying, "So yeah, next season...things are about to get worse for everyone." I liked how the leader looked. Like he can strategize an attack.
One thing I like about the show, is that in season 2 the nobles all kept saying, "Whatever the problem might be, it isn't whitewalkers and if there is a problem, the men of the north have it. We're fine." Then bam! Whitewalkers. I'm excited for next season and to start the books next month. With Robb's rebellion, problem in the north is a problem for Robb, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend rule applies for the Lannisters, Baratheons and Greyjoys. I doubt any of them would care the slightest if the whites and the wildlings invaded the north. The white walkers don't look like fellows who desire the sun in the south anyway. They might melt for all we know ^^
As I understand, when winter does come it will be very cold everywhere on Westeros. So the White Walkers and their army of undead could be a treath to everyone.
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EPT
