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SPOILER WARNING If you only watch the show, this thread will spoil you of future events in HBO's Game of Thrones. Thread contains discussion of all books of the series A Song of Ice and FireClick Here for the spoiler-free thread. |
On October 18 2012 06:17 armada[sb] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 05:49 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 05:42 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:19 n.DieJokes wrote:On October 18 2012 05:14 armada[sb] wrote:
What will Barristan the Bold do when he finds out about another Targaryen with a better claim to the throne? Encourage them to marry I imagine And if she is opposed to the idea? Whose side would such an honorable man take? She has the dragons isn't that proof enough that she's the real succesor of the Targaryens? She may be the most comparable to Aegon the Conqueror, but that doesn't necessarily change the line of succession.
It does increase her legitimacy as heir to the Targaryen name though and since the other guy is still unproven and we're not even sure he's a true Targaryen I would say he will support Dany but I guess it will just depend on what Barristan will find more important dragons or bloodline.
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On October 18 2012 06:23 RvB wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 06:17 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:49 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 05:42 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:19 n.DieJokes wrote:On October 18 2012 05:14 armada[sb] wrote:
What will Barristan the Bold do when he finds out about another Targaryen with a better claim to the throne? Encourage them to marry I imagine And if she is opposed to the idea? Whose side would such an honorable man take? She has the dragons isn't that proof enough that she's the real succesor of the Targaryens? She may be the most comparable to Aegon the Conqueror, but that doesn't necessarily change the line of succession. It does increase her legitimacy as heir to the Targaryen name though and since the other guy is still unproven and we're not even sure he's a true Targaryen I would say he will support Dany but I guess it will just depend on what Barristan will find more important dragons or bloodline.
We're 100% he's a Targaryen.. Jon Connington was with him the whole time, it's not as though he was by himself for all those years and just popped up with no one to back his claim.
And you have to remember how important bloodlines are to the inhabitants of Westeros. It's hard for us to sympathize but you have to put yourself in their shoes. Do the dragons make her better equipped to take the throne? Of course, but as of now she has no way to control the dragons. Will be interesting to see where Euron/Victarion and their horn fit into this, as well as Bran who "will fly". The man who blew the horn at the Kingsmoot had his lungs seared, but we've already seen that Dany seems to be impervious to fire.
The interesting thing is that Barristan says that he wants to defend the rightful heir to the throne, and as it turns out, Dany is not the rightful heir. But, we've already seen that Barristan is willing to bend the rules a little bit, as he did when he helped the Shavepate overthrow Hizdahr.
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On October 18 2012 06:25 armada[sb] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 06:23 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 06:17 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:49 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 05:42 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:19 n.DieJokes wrote:On October 18 2012 05:14 armada[sb] wrote:
What will Barristan the Bold do when he finds out about another Targaryen with a better claim to the throne? Encourage them to marry I imagine And if she is opposed to the idea? Whose side would such an honorable man take? She has the dragons isn't that proof enough that she's the real succesor of the Targaryens? She may be the most comparable to Aegon the Conqueror, but that doesn't necessarily change the line of succession. It does increase her legitimacy as heir to the Targaryen name though and since the other guy is still unproven and we're not even sure he's a true Targaryen I would say he will support Dany but I guess it will just depend on what Barristan will find more important dragons or bloodline. We're 100% he's a Targaryen.. Jon Connington was with him the whole time, it's not as though he was by himself for all those years and just popped up with no one to back his claim. And you have to remember how important bloodlines are to the inhabitants of Westeros. It's hard for us to sympathize but you have to put yourself in their shoes. Do the dragons make her better equipped to take the throne? Of course, but as of now she has no way to control the dragons. Will be interesting to see where Euron/Victarion and their horn fit into this, as well as Bran who "will fly". The man who blew the horn at the Kingsmoot had his lungs seared, but we've already seen that Dany seems to be impervious to fire. The interesting thing is that Barristan says that he wants to defend the rightful heir to the throne, and as it turns out, Dany is not the rightful heir. But, we've already seen that Barristan is willing to bend the rules a little bit, as he did when he helped the Shavepate overthrow Hizdahr.
Aegon and Connington believes Aegon is the real thing. Doesn't make it so.
From what I understand the common folk doesn't care about bloodlines. They value honor and tradition (some more then others) but you see how they act when their most basic needs are threatened and what they really desire is safety and stability. It's the lords who obeys their lieges out of respect and threat but most importantly to set an example to those who serve them. If they undermine the system their undermining their own power which makes it dangerous to meddle with.
Barristan wants an honorable regent to serve and die for. Don't kid yourself anything else. He's remember his youth, how proud he used to be over being part of the kingsguard. I believe he imagines what would had happened if Rhaegar had been king as his imaginary utopia and longs to make that dream into reality.
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On October 18 2012 06:59 risk.nuke wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 06:25 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 06:23 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 06:17 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:49 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 05:42 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:19 n.DieJokes wrote:On October 18 2012 05:14 armada[sb] wrote:
What will Barristan the Bold do when he finds out about another Targaryen with a better claim to the throne? Encourage them to marry I imagine And if she is opposed to the idea? Whose side would such an honorable man take? She has the dragons isn't that proof enough that she's the real succesor of the Targaryens? She may be the most comparable to Aegon the Conqueror, but that doesn't necessarily change the line of succession. It does increase her legitimacy as heir to the Targaryen name though and since the other guy is still unproven and we're not even sure he's a true Targaryen I would say he will support Dany but I guess it will just depend on what Barristan will find more important dragons or bloodline. We're 100% he's a Targaryen.. Jon Connington was with him the whole time, it's not as though he was by himself for all those years and just popped up with no one to back his claim. And you have to remember how important bloodlines are to the inhabitants of Westeros. It's hard for us to sympathize but you have to put yourself in their shoes. Do the dragons make her better equipped to take the throne? Of course, but as of now she has no way to control the dragons. Will be interesting to see where Euron/Victarion and their horn fit into this, as well as Bran who "will fly". The man who blew the horn at the Kingsmoot had his lungs seared, but we've already seen that Dany seems to be impervious to fire. The interesting thing is that Barristan says that he wants to defend the rightful heir to the throne, and as it turns out, Dany is not the rightful heir. But, we've already seen that Barristan is willing to bend the rules a little bit, as he did when he helped the Shavepate overthrow Hizdahr. Aegon and Connington believes Aegon is the real thing. Doesn't make it so. From what I understand the common folk doesn't care about bloodlines. They value honor and tradition (some more then others) but you see how they act when their most basic needs are threatened and what they really desire is safety and stability. It's the lords who obeys their lieges out of respect and threat but most importantly to set an example to those who serve them. If they undermine the system their undermining their own power which makes it dangerous to meddle with. Barristan wants an honorable regent to serve and die for. Don't kid yourself anything else. He's remember his youth, how proud he used to be over being part of the kingsguard. I believe he imagines what would had happened if Rhaegar had been king as his imaginary utopia and longs to make that dream into reality.
Jon Connington was there when Kings Landing was sacked, I don't see how you can find anything in the text to suggest that he's not a real Targaryen.
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On October 18 2012 07:00 armada[sb] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 06:59 risk.nuke wrote:On October 18 2012 06:25 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 06:23 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 06:17 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:49 RvB wrote:On October 18 2012 05:42 armada[sb] wrote:On October 18 2012 05:19 n.DieJokes wrote:On October 18 2012 05:14 armada[sb] wrote:
What will Barristan the Bold do when he finds out about another Targaryen with a better claim to the throne? Encourage them to marry I imagine And if she is opposed to the idea? Whose side would such an honorable man take? She has the dragons isn't that proof enough that she's the real succesor of the Targaryens? She may be the most comparable to Aegon the Conqueror, but that doesn't necessarily change the line of succession. It does increase her legitimacy as heir to the Targaryen name though and since the other guy is still unproven and we're not even sure he's a true Targaryen I would say he will support Dany but I guess it will just depend on what Barristan will find more important dragons or bloodline. We're 100% he's a Targaryen.. Jon Connington was with him the whole time, it's not as though he was by himself for all those years and just popped up with no one to back his claim. And you have to remember how important bloodlines are to the inhabitants of Westeros. It's hard for us to sympathize but you have to put yourself in their shoes. Do the dragons make her better equipped to take the throne? Of course, but as of now she has no way to control the dragons. Will be interesting to see where Euron/Victarion and their horn fit into this, as well as Bran who "will fly". The man who blew the horn at the Kingsmoot had his lungs seared, but we've already seen that Dany seems to be impervious to fire. The interesting thing is that Barristan says that he wants to defend the rightful heir to the throne, and as it turns out, Dany is not the rightful heir. But, we've already seen that Barristan is willing to bend the rules a little bit, as he did when he helped the Shavepate overthrow Hizdahr. Aegon and Connington believes Aegon is the real thing. Doesn't make it so. From what I understand the common folk doesn't care about bloodlines. They value honor and tradition (some more then others) but you see how they act when their most basic needs are threatened and what they really desire is safety and stability. It's the lords who obeys their lieges out of respect and threat but most importantly to set an example to those who serve them. If they undermine the system their undermining their own power which makes it dangerous to meddle with. Barristan wants an honorable regent to serve and die for. Don't kid yourself anything else. He's remember his youth, how proud he used to be over being part of the kingsguard. I believe he imagines what would had happened if Rhaegar had been king as his imaginary utopia and longs to make that dream into reality. Jon Connington was there when Kings Landing was sacked, I don't see how you can find anything in the text to suggest that he's not a real Targaryen.
But is Jon Conningtons word enough to convince Barristan? Honestly it's not enough to convince me 100% either. There's also a theory that Aegon is actually a blackfyre I couldn't really find much about it though except in this thread.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=225659¤tpage=140
edit: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/59884-is-aegon-vi-fake/
In addition Connington was already exiled at the time of the sacking on kings landing, he got exiled after the battle of the bells
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Jon_Connington
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Idk that would just be such a huge turn without any sort of foreshadowing in the novels.
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It wouldn't even be such a surprise if he turns out to be a fake Targ. Isn't it a popular theory that the "fake dragon" in one of Dany's prophecies refers to him?
This should probally cover everything about it:
www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/1997/
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There is a fair bit in the novels actually. Admittedly (as ever) it's reading between the lines and interpretation but if you noticed there is a fair bit of mention of blackfyre in ADWD and in the DaE novels. Additionally it explains:
*Why the golden company would break their first(?) contract. They even say 'some contracts are written in blood' and the Gcompany was founded to get a blackfyre on the throne.
*The rusted dragon prophecy.
*Explains why illyrio was so sad to see Young griff go.
*Explains why he also had children's clothing for Tyrion, as Young Griff could be his son.
*Illyrio has a statue of a younger person could be himself when younger or maybe Y.G.
There are another few bits and pieces. It's not perfect but I don't think it's far behind L+R=J theory.
There are a few others but I think it's a fairly strong theory
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On October 18 2012 07:17 SKC wrote:It wouldn't even be such a surprise if he turns out to be a fake Targ. Isn't it a popular theory that the "fake dragon" in one of Dany's prophecies refers to him? This should probally cover everything about it: www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/1997/
Interesting. Would be a serious twist, but I'm still not 100% on board with it. Hard to ever know what Varys is really up to lol
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On October 18 2012 07:22 armada[sb] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 18 2012 07:17 SKC wrote:It wouldn't even be such a surprise if he turns out to be a fake Targ. Isn't it a popular theory that the "fake dragon" in one of Dany's prophecies refers to him? This should probally cover everything about it: www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/1997/ Interesting. Would be a serious twist, but I'm still not 100% on board with it. Hard to ever know what Varys is really up to lol
We can be sure that if he is not it, another "fake dragon" is coming. There has been enough prophecies about that. I always felt it made a lot of sense for him to be fake, personally. It's not as likely as L+R=J or "Jon's not dead", but not that far behind.
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The Aegon Blackfyre theory is a pretty viable twist. I think most detractors don't like it because:
a) There isn't a lot of emphasis placed on the Blackfyre Rebellions in the main books. There's a ton of it in Dunk & Egg, but it's ridiculous to expect people to read the novellas just to understand events in ASOIAF. But if you do a ctrl+F of it in the eBooks, there actually are a good number of mentions - it's just that a lot of first-time readers, me included, tended to glaze over when GRRM would spew out like ten names with 'ae' in them in his random history lessons.
b) It feels a little out of nowhere for, well, Aegon to be alive in the first place (such a major character and introduced in book 5) and then additionally for him to be part of some secret plot the whole time when no mention was given to him before. This is a valid point but remember GRRM's original intent was to make the books a trilogy. It wouldn't have been so bad if Aegon had been revealed in book 2 out of 3.
Also there's this little passage from AFFC that really sealed it for me:
“Is the dragon sign still there?” asked Podrick.
“No,” said Septon Meribald. “When the smith’s son was an old man, a bastard son of the fourth Aegon rose up in rebellion against his trueborn brother and took for his sigil a black dragon. These lands belonged to Lord Darry then, and his lordship was fiercely loyal to the king. The sight of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign into pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon’s heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust.
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Wowowow, slow down, everyone keeps getting this wrong. Aegon's claim would not be better than Dany's. Tyrion has a better record of being correct than a lot of POVs but he is still only human with his own biases. Rhaegar was never king so it is still following directly off Aerys as the Targaryen dynasty did not follow the Andal custom of girls only being able to inherit if they were more or less the last possible option after every distant identifiable nth cousin and uncle type option was exhausted. Also, that this was their custom is going to be further supported by their main ally right now; Dorne, who also do not disadvantage girls when it comes to lines of succession and even have a girl coming up to the throne currently amidst some perceived contention on her part about if her brother had been favored.
Less objectively though, over time I've settled more and more into the thought that there isn't a chance in hell Aegon is not Faegon. All the non-meta evidence aside, the meta reason of "it is just too late to introduce something like that" has me quite strongly opposed to the idea he is legit.
In any case, other than Faegon being outed, Barristan would be one among many getting them to marry and I don't see either of them being resistant to it. Connington and those guys are operating under the assumption that they will marry. Barristan will shit a brick about the thought of finding himself in the position of being another Kingmaker and beg Dany to do it. The two kids are more of less conditioned to think it is a good thing/their duty while also being politically savvy enough to analytically decide it is a good thing for themselves all while they don't have any personal reasons to oppose it at this time.
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On October 18 2012 10:55 Irrelevant Label wrote:
Wowowow, slow down, everyone keeps getting this wrong. Aegon's claim would not be better than Dany's. Tyrion has a better record of being correct than a lot of POVs but he is still only human with his own biases. Rhaegar was never king so it is still following directly off Aerys as the Targaryen dynasty did not follow the Andal custom of girls only being able to inherit if they were more or less the last possible option after every distant identifiable nth cousin and uncle type option was exhausted.
Nope. Targaryens have followed Andal custom ever since the Dance of the Dragons. If Aegon is real or believed to be real his claim is better.
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The only time it was up for contention was the The Dance of Dragons which established that Rhaenyra's claim held. If Aegon turns out to be real or hides his falseness and wants to try again to appeal to force on the issue I suppose he can, but only one side has dragons this time.
Edit:
Even as recently as the grand council a female claimant to the throne was given first consideration in accordance with her first place in the line of succession, Daeron's daugher, but she was thrown out for being mentally handicapped and they ultimately landed on Aegon V.
That said, after a reference to Kingmaker Cole why assume I'm not familiar with the Dance of Dragons?
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ACOK:
Well, no sane man wanted any blood of Aerion’s on the throne, and Daeron’s girl was a lackwit besides being female.
Doesn't exactly show the Targs were for female rulers at that time. It sounds more like Mormont saying, "yeah so aerion sucked and daeron only had a daughter so it skipped them" rather than describing it as being a conscious decision to consider the daughter. Also seems like kind of a strange case anyway, to pass over Aerion's son like that instead of appointing some kind of Regent for him. I mentioned DoD because after the war ended they pretty much abolished female succession to prevent anything like that happening again.
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Subjective opinions and word choice analysis based on the thoughts of any one character are not as strong an indicator as historical data and social consensus.
The only thing it can be conclusively said to have established was that Rhaenyra's claim won with her son ultimately winning the war and continuing the line. That is the historical data piece, for social consensus indicators I point to Cole being remembered as a traitor. Classic "history is written by the victor".
Daeron's daughter was still considered, however briefly. That she was female inevitably harmed her chances in the mostly Andal-minded views of the members of the council, and of course she was skipped over ostensibly for her handicap, but that she was not outright ignored is enough to establish that as a post Dance occasion of a female claim to the throne.
I doubt we will see Barristan, Connington and Doran having this argument in any case. There are too many more likely possibilities for how to reconcile Dany and (f)Aegon's claims to the throne that do not involve them becoming rivals. Somewhere between one or both dying, Aegon being revealed as a pretender, and the many ways they would end up as allies if the first doesn't happen and possibly regardless of the second happening (depending on who all ends up in the know) it is very unlikely to come to a matter of contention between the two claims.
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On October 18 2012 10:55 Irrelevant Label wrote:
Wowowow, slow down, everyone keeps getting this wrong. Aegon's claim would not be better than Dany's. Tyrion has a better record of being correct than a lot of POVs but he is still only human with his own biases. Rhaegar was never king so it is still following directly off Aerys as the Targaryen dynasty did not follow the Andal custom of girls only being able to inherit if they were more or less the last possible option after every distant identifiable nth cousin and uncle type option was exhausted. Also, that this was their custom is going to be further supported by their main ally right now; Dorne, who also do not disadvantage girls when it comes to lines of succession and even have a girl coming up to the throne currently amidst some perceived contention on her part about if her brother had been favored.
Less objectively though, over time I've settled more and more into the thought that there isn't a chance in hell Aegon is not Faegon. All the non-meta evidence aside, the meta reason of "it is just too late to introduce something like that" has me quite strongly opposed to the idea he is legit.
In any case, other than Faegon being outed, Barristan would be one among many getting them to marry and I don't see either of them being resistant to it. Connington and those guys are operating under the assumption that they will marry. Barristan will shit a brick about the thought of finding himself in the position of being another Kingmaker and beg Dany to do it. The two kids are more of less conditioned to think it is a good thing/their duty while also being politically savvy enough to analytically decide it is a good thing for themselves all while they don't have any personal reasons to oppose it at this time.
He is the true heir though. If the heir dies, the new heir is the dead heir's first born son. That's how medieval law of succession works basically.
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That is not how they work here though as in the first instance similar to this Maegor was made king before Aenys I's son Jaehaerys I, who did later come to the throne later though after Maegor died.
Also going back to the grand council again, they also passed over a son of Aerion when they first offered the throne to Aemon. In that case they didn't even have the excuse of disability or sex. They went for a latter son over a son of an earlier son.*
And yet another example, dead Baelor and Rhaegel had children who were skipped over for their younger brothers Aerys I and Maekar I respectively.
There seems to be plenty of cases to establish that younger children come before grandchildren from the older children when the older child never held the throne*...or even if they did in that one weird case with Maegor and Jaehaerys.
The politics are based on the war of the roses, but this isn't Britain.
The main 'wrench' that might be thrown into this would be if it could be established that all of these cases involved infant or otherwise undesirable for leadership grandchildren being passed over for adult younger children of the previous sovereign. That would be more evidence for a less rule based and more on-the-fly pragmatic succession, which seems to be the case to me, but for now I'm running with this defense of latter-born children over grandchildren via the earlier-born point.
*with that sentence I suspect like I might be ignorant of some terminology that would make this easier to talk about clearly.
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On October 18 2012 17:42 Irrelevant Label wrote:
That is not how they work here though as in the first instance similar to this Maegor was made king before Aenys I's son Jaehaerys I, who did later come to the throne later though after Maegor died.
Also going back to the grand council again, they also passed over a son of Aerion when they first offered the throne to Aemon. In that case they didn't even have the excuse of disability or sex. They went for a latter son over a son of an earlier son.*
And yet another example, dead Baelor and Rhaegel had children who were skipped over for their younger brothers Aerys I and Maekar I respectively.
There seems to be plenty of cases to establish that younger children come before grandchildren from the older children when the older child never held the throne*...or even if they did in that one weird case with Maegor and Jaehaerys.
The politics are based on the war of the roses, but this isn't Britain.
The main 'wrench' that might be thrown into this would be if it could be established that all of these cases involved infant or otherwise undesirable for leadership grandchildren being passed over for adult younger children of the previous sovereign. That would be more evidence for a less rule based and more on-the-fly pragmatic succession, which seems to be the case to me, but for now I'm running with this defense of latter-born children over grandchildren via the earlier-born point.
*with that sentence I suspect like I might be ignorant of some terminology that would make this easier to talk about clearly.
The examples you give are all examples of males though. Andal succession chooses male heirs first and as Targs now subscribe to Andal succession Dany's claim comes second to Aegon's
http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/The_Dance_of_the_Dragons
"Since the Dance, House Targaryen has practiced a highly modified version of agnatic primogeniture, placing female claimants in the line of succession behind all possible male ones, even collateral relations."
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I don't really think it matters who's claims are stronger, more who has the power at the time. I think everything up to this point has proven that claims don't hold any weight in the face of raw power.
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EPT
