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[TV/BOOK] *SPOILERS* Game of Thrones Discussion - Page 177

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SPOILER WARNING If you only watch the show, this thread will spoil you of future events in HBO's Game of Thrones. Thread contains discussion of all books of the series A Song of Ice and Fire
Click Here for the spoiler-free thread.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
August 27 2012 18:18 GMT
#3521
On August 28 2012 02:34 Dosey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2012 02:30 kimchikim wrote:
On August 28 2012 02:27 Dosey wrote:
On August 28 2012 01:57 kimchikim wrote:
On August 28 2012 01:51 ionlyplayPROtoss wrote:
On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).

Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published?


I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state.


Is his health in such a bad state? Would someone else finish writing the books?

HBO would be able to finish the series because GRRM has shared full plot notes with the producers, but I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that he would explicitly deny any attempt to finish the book in his stead.


Wow, so theres people around who already know how everything is going to end? I wonder if that will get leaked sometime..

Non-Disclosure Agreement + the risk of no one in hollywood ever working with them again + facing the wrath of HBO, GRRM, and the fans = very likely that it will not ever be leaked.

And the scariest of all those things is the wrath of the fans, of course.
Serek
Profile Joined May 2011
United Kingdom459 Posts
August 27 2012 23:59 GMT
#3522
On August 28 2012 01:19 kafkaesque wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2012 13:05 Irrelevant Label wrote:


IRL it was moved by technology and/or other innovations. In Asoiaf they apparently have to rely on dragons to at least establish a stable ruler and call that good enough. Everyone talks about how long their seasons are, but a >10k year early middle age is what sucks in the asoiaf world.


Well, a year in Westeros is the same length as a year IRL, it's twelve months, not 4 seasons, and a month in Westeros is as long as a month IRL. So really, all we know is they have been in the early middle ages for around 300 years, since we have only vague information on politics and religion before Aegon's landing.


A bit OT, but a fully developed feudal hierarchy, primogeniture inheritance, ideals of chivalry, detailed heraldry and such that we see in Westeros, are features of the high Middle Ages (ca. after 1000 a.D.) than the lower. Things like jousting tournaments started even closer to the Renaissance.

But yeah, in GRRM's world it seems they've been stuck in that era since the Andals landed. Other fantasy settings attempt to justify the lack of technological advancement with the existence of magic, but considering that magic doesn't feature as heavily here I'd like to hear about GRRM's take here.
Irrelevant Label
Profile Joined January 2012
United States596 Posts
August 28 2012 02:12 GMT
#3523
We do know more than just the last 300 years. We know that in the earliest not-quite-recorded but recalled history, 12.5k years ago when the first men arrived, they had bronze but quickly upgraded to iron. We know that they had developed enough steel for it to be worth differentiating and specifying that some was "good steel" by the long night, 8k years. We know that the Andals arrived 6k years ago and brought with them all the customs and things that are generally still seen in Westeros today. We know that the sizes of armies has not changed since at least the Andal invasion which likely indicates a static general population.

I choose to call it early middle because technology and population levels have both apparently been stagnant for a very long time, at least going to to circa the long night (8k years), but likely pushing towards when the first men arrived. Westeros has some mixed traits from anywhere between an iron age to an early renaissance. One thing to keep in mind is that because the civilization goes back so long, the Andals arrived 6k years ago and it sounds like things have been quite the same since at least that point, there is rather a lot of room for things to develop "out of order" from the IRL societal vs. technological vs. population progress that Europe had. Maybe a developed hierarchy and heraldry arrived in the high middle ages in Europe, but in Europe the high middle ages didn't take thousands of years to arrive relative to the other sociotechnological factors of the earlier middle ages.

GRRM can make more or less the same claim as other fantasy settings on magic since it has only been substantially subdued for about a century. Westeros is in a weird spot though since magic has been minimal there for far longer on account of Andal customs shunning it and they have the order of the maesters whose knowledge and, one would think, aptitude for new ideas rival anything in the IRL renaissance. I suppose the most reasonable fall back is that they are in a dark age and the religious customs are a big part of holding it all back; which points back to early middle ages as a similarity.
Euronyme
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden3804 Posts
August 30 2012 04:11 GMT
#3524
On August 28 2012 11:12 Irrelevant Label wrote:
We do know more than just the last 300 years. We know that in the earliest not-quite-recorded but recalled history, 12.5k years ago when the first men arrived, they had bronze but quickly upgraded to iron. We know that they had developed enough steel for it to be worth differentiating and specifying that some was "good steel" by the long night, 8k years. We know that the Andals arrived 6k years ago and brought with them all the customs and things that are generally still seen in Westeros today. We know that the sizes of armies has not changed since at least the Andal invasion which likely indicates a static general population.

I choose to call it early middle because technology and population levels have both apparently been stagnant for a very long time, at least going to to circa the long night (8k years), but likely pushing towards when the first men arrived. Westeros has some mixed traits from anywhere between an iron age to an early renaissance. One thing to keep in mind is that because the civilization goes back so long, the Andals arrived 6k years ago and it sounds like things have been quite the same since at least that point, there is rather a lot of room for things to develop "out of order" from the IRL societal vs. technological vs. population progress that Europe had. Maybe a developed hierarchy and heraldry arrived in the high middle ages in Europe, but in Europe the high middle ages didn't take thousands of years to arrive relative to the other sociotechnological factors of the earlier middle ages.

GRRM can make more or less the same claim as other fantasy settings on magic since it has only been substantially subdued for about a century. Westeros is in a weird spot though since magic has been minimal there for far longer on account of Andal customs shunning it and they have the order of the maesters whose knowledge and, one would think, aptitude for new ideas rival anything in the IRL renaissance. I suppose the most reasonable fall back is that they are in a dark age and the religious customs are a big part of holding it all back; which points back to early middle ages as a similarity.


Personally I would call it the late late middle ages. Apart from what you said, the plate armour is apparently very common, and that wasn't big until the 15th-16th century. Imo everything points towards the point in time right before gunpowder was invented.
Personally I like to think that ideas are what have shaped history. Men fought with swords for thousands of years, but with the introduction of gunpowder it just took a few hundred years until we went from flintlocks to nuclear weapons.
I'd like to think that GRRM's world is simply a world without gunpowder.
I bet i can maı̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̨̨̨̨̨̨ke you wipe your screen.
itkovian
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
United States1763 Posts
August 30 2012 19:26 GMT
#3525
I'm rereading books 1-4 so I can read book 5 with an up-to-date mindset. (I haven't read book 5 yet). Its been a few years since I've read them, and I've been watching the show in between. And I have to say man there are some awesome parts in the book that aren't in the show. My favorite scene in the first book is on page 424 when Ned is reliving the memory where him, and six others, fought the Sword of the Morning, Ser Oswell Whent and the White Bull. I think they're supposed to be guarding Lyanna from him, but I can't be certain because its kind of a muddled dream. I don't think this scene was in the show, and I'm afraid to google it because of the inadvertent spoiler I might find. (seeing as the promise he made to Lyanna seems to be building up to be one of the biggest reveals... if its ever revealed.) I also can't remember if it mentions more about that scene/Lyanna later in books 2-4, but again I'm afraid to check. Right now, with my fuzzy memory of books 2-4, and my sharp memory of book 1, I get the feeling that Jon must be Lyanna's son, and Ned promised to protect him and cover for him like he was his own bastard son. All theory, and I'm sure its been thought of before. If not legitimized already...

Anyways, page 424 in A Game of Thrones, is the best scene in the book in my opinion.

Now, on to A Clash of Kings!
=)=
Kyuukyuu
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Canada6263 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-30 23:27:39
August 30 2012 23:25 GMT
#3526
Nope, no flashbacks in the show, which is a shame because the Tower of Joy is both awesome and important for theorycrafting

edit: if you got RLJ on your first read through you are a pretty fucking observant reader
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
August 30 2012 23:29 GMT
#3527
I so hope the show will have a flashback episode one day, basically showing Jon's true heritage. That would be so. bloody. epic.

And bloody.
aloT
Profile Joined April 2010
England1042 Posts
August 30 2012 23:30 GMT
#3528
Well with Neds death I would assume that Howland Reed would of passed on the knowledge of the events in the Tower of Joy in some way or another, especially if it could end up saving the Stark family if one of the many theories is true.

Best scene in the series is Jon Snow going all Lord Commander on Slynt. It reminded me that there was still justice in the world of Westeros.
Euronyme
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden3804 Posts
August 31 2012 02:41 GMT
#3529
On August 31 2012 08:30 aloT wrote:
Well with Neds death I would assume that Howland Reed would of passed on the knowledge of the events in the Tower of Joy in some way or another, especially if it could end up saving the Stark family if one of the many theories is true.

Best scene in the series is Jon Snow going all Lord Commander on Slynt. It reminded me that there was still justice in the world of Westeros.


Yeah that was like the ending of the classic hollywood movie. The beat down kid strikes back.
I really liked how it was worded as well.
I bet i can maı̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̨̨̨̨̨̨ke you wipe your screen.
Abysus
Profile Joined November 2010
United States67 Posts
August 31 2012 02:50 GMT
#3530
On August 28 2012 08:59 Serek wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2012 01:19 kafkaesque wrote:
On August 26 2012 13:05 Irrelevant Label wrote:


IRL it was moved by technology and/or other innovations. In Asoiaf they apparently have to rely on dragons to at least establish a stable ruler and call that good enough. Everyone talks about how long their seasons are, but a >10k year early middle age is what sucks in the asoiaf world.


Well, a year in Westeros is the same length as a year IRL, it's twelve months, not 4 seasons, and a month in Westeros is as long as a month IRL. So really, all we know is they have been in the early middle ages for around 300 years, since we have only vague information on politics and religion before Aegon's landing.


A bit OT, but a fully developed feudal hierarchy, primogeniture inheritance, ideals of chivalry, detailed heraldry and such that we see in Westeros, are features of the high Middle Ages (ca. after 1000 a.D.) than the lower. Things like jousting tournaments started even closer to the Renaissance.

But yeah, in GRRM's world it seems they've been stuck in that era since the Andals landed. Other fantasy settings attempt to justify the lack of technological advancement with the existence of magic, but considering that magic doesn't feature as heavily here I'd like to hear about GRRM's take here.


GRRM never intended this to be set in one "age". He has combined aspects and values from multiple ages to fit his story and universe. So attempts to say well this thing is in this age which parallels this age and this follows that therefore this, would be like chasing the proverbial rabbit down the hole.
Euronyme
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden3804 Posts
August 31 2012 03:02 GMT
#3531
On August 31 2012 11:50 Abysus wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 28 2012 08:59 Serek wrote:
On August 28 2012 01:19 kafkaesque wrote:
On August 26 2012 13:05 Irrelevant Label wrote:


IRL it was moved by technology and/or other innovations. In Asoiaf they apparently have to rely on dragons to at least establish a stable ruler and call that good enough. Everyone talks about how long their seasons are, but a >10k year early middle age is what sucks in the asoiaf world.


Well, a year in Westeros is the same length as a year IRL, it's twelve months, not 4 seasons, and a month in Westeros is as long as a month IRL. So really, all we know is they have been in the early middle ages for around 300 years, since we have only vague information on politics and religion before Aegon's landing.


A bit OT, but a fully developed feudal hierarchy, primogeniture inheritance, ideals of chivalry, detailed heraldry and such that we see in Westeros, are features of the high Middle Ages (ca. after 1000 a.D.) than the lower. Things like jousting tournaments started even closer to the Renaissance.

But yeah, in GRRM's world it seems they've been stuck in that era since the Andals landed. Other fantasy settings attempt to justify the lack of technological advancement with the existence of magic, but considering that magic doesn't feature as heavily here I'd like to hear about GRRM's take here.


GRRM never intended this to be set in one "age". He has combined aspects and values from multiple ages to fit his story and universe. So attempts to say well this thing is in this age which parallels this age and this follows that therefore this, would be like chasing the proverbial rabbit down the hole.


Isn't pretty much everything late middle ages?
I bet i can maı̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̨̨̨̨̨̨ke you wipe your screen.
Iksf
Profile Joined March 2011
United Kingdom444 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-31 03:17:24
August 31 2012 03:16 GMT
#3532
Varys attempting to get aerys to shut the gates could have just been a purely selfish action, he probably assumed robert and ned would be the ones storming kings landing not tywin. He was probably reasonably confident ned would have shown him mercy but tywin less so
moopie
Profile Joined July 2009
12605 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-08-31 06:19:56
August 31 2012 05:35 GMT
#3533
On August 31 2012 12:16 Iksf wrote:
Varys attempting to get aerys to shut the gates could have just been a purely selfish action, he probably assumed robert and ned would be the ones storming kings landing not tywin. He was probably reasonably confident ned would have shown him mercy but tywin less so

Nope. If Varys was worried about his own safety he has ways to sneak out of KL (as shown in ASoS/ADWD). Also, he knew it was Tywin and his army coming to KL (supposedly to help guard it). Grand Maester Pycelle advised Aerys to open the gates (being a Lannister loyalist) but Varys convinced Aerys its a mistake and not to trust Tywin.

In essence, Varys worked to protect Aerys there, even though previously he purposely worked to fuel Aerys' paranoia, which in turn caused Aerys' extreme actions thus leading to his downfall. Those two actions contradict each other, but maybe someday Varys' plots will make more sense.

btw, keep in mind that Varys also narc'd on Rhaegar to Aerys. From what we know about Rhaegar, he would have been a good leader, especially if Varys cares that said leader is a Targ. Its not just about wanting prosperity for the realm, and its not just about a particular ruler. There's more to the plot than we know so far. When he kills Kevan he tells him its not personal, its because Kevan was too good at mending the realm.

He was also the one who told Robert and the council about Dany getting married to Drogo, prompting the assassination attempt. Its highly unlikely that he foresaw Jorah falling in love with Dany and saving her at the last minute, so clearly he didn't mind her getting killed off (again, contradicting the Targ loyalty idea).

Short-term, it seems to be about getting Aegon/Faegon on the throne (or at least promoting a successful invasion), but that can't be the full picture yet. I really hope GRRM has a well thought out conclusion to the Varys/Illyrio plots. Something that once revealed will make the reader go "oooooooooooh", rather than end the books with contradicting/illogical/unknown intentions. I'll be sorely disappointed if its just an Illyrio/Faegon Blackfyre reveal and wanting to revive their house.
I'm going to sleep, let me get some of that carpet.
Abysus
Profile Joined November 2010
United States67 Posts
August 31 2012 07:21 GMT
#3534
On August 31 2012 14:35 moopie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2012 12:16 Iksf wrote:
Varys attempting to get aerys to shut the gates could have just been a purely selfish action, he probably assumed robert and ned would be the ones storming kings landing not tywin. He was probably reasonably confident ned would have shown him mercy but tywin less so

Nope. If Varys was worried about his own safety he has ways to sneak out of KL (as shown in ASoS/ADWD). Also, he knew it was Tywin and his army coming to KL (supposedly to help guard it). Grand Maester Pycelle advised Aerys to open the gates (being a Lannister loyalist) but Varys convinced Aerys its a mistake and not to trust Tywin.

In essence, Varys worked to protect Aerys there, even though previously he purposely worked to fuel Aerys' paranoia, which in turn caused Aerys' extreme actions thus leading to his downfall. Those two actions contradict each other, but maybe someday Varys' plots will make more sense.

btw, keep in mind that Varys also narc'd on Rhaegar to Aerys. From what we know about Rhaegar, he would have been a good leader, especially if Varys cares that said leader is a Targ. Its not just about wanting prosperity for the realm, and its not just about a particular ruler. There's more to the plot than we know so far. When he kills Kevan he tells him its not personal, its because Kevan was too good at mending the realm.

He was also the one who told Robert and the council about Dany getting married to Drogo, prompting the assassination attempt. Its highly unlikely that he foresaw Jorah falling in love with Dany and saving her at the last minute, so clearly he didn't mind her getting killed off (again, contradicting the Targ loyalty idea).

Short-term, it seems to be about getting Aegon/Faegon on the throne (or at least promoting a successful invasion), but that can't be the full picture yet. I really hope GRRM has a well thought out conclusion to the Varys/Illyrio plots. Something that once revealed will make the reader go "oooooooooooh", rather than end the books with contradicting/illogical/unknown intentions. I'll be sorely disappointed if its just an Illyrio/Faegon Blackfyre reveal and wanting to revive their house.


I'd really like to believe the countless years GRRM spends writing this book would allow him to shore up plotholes like that. He is notoriously good at introducing small characters and developing them later. This same talent should hopefully work backwards to the point of him closing their storylines.
Euronyme
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden3804 Posts
August 31 2012 08:54 GMT
#3535
On August 31 2012 14:35 moopie wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 31 2012 12:16 Iksf wrote:
Varys attempting to get aerys to shut the gates could have just been a purely selfish action, he probably assumed robert and ned would be the ones storming kings landing not tywin. He was probably reasonably confident ned would have shown him mercy but tywin less so

Nope. If Varys was worried about his own safety he has ways to sneak out of KL (as shown in ASoS/ADWD). Also, he knew it was Tywin and his army coming to KL (supposedly to help guard it). Grand Maester Pycelle advised Aerys to open the gates (being a Lannister loyalist) but Varys convinced Aerys its a mistake and not to trust Tywin.

In essence, Varys worked to protect Aerys there, even though previously he purposely worked to fuel Aerys' paranoia, which in turn caused Aerys' extreme actions thus leading to his downfall. Those two actions contradict each other, but maybe someday Varys' plots will make more sense.

btw, keep in mind that Varys also narc'd on Rhaegar to Aerys. From what we know about Rhaegar, he would have been a good leader, especially if Varys cares that said leader is a Targ. Its not just about wanting prosperity for the realm, and its not just about a particular ruler. There's more to the plot than we know so far. When he kills Kevan he tells him its not personal, its because Kevan was too good at mending the realm.

He was also the one who told Robert and the council about Dany getting married to Drogo, prompting the assassination attempt. Its highly unlikely that he foresaw Jorah falling in love with Dany and saving her at the last minute, so clearly he didn't mind her getting killed off (again, contradicting the Targ loyalty idea).

Short-term, it seems to be about getting Aegon/Faegon on the throne (or at least promoting a successful invasion), but that can't be the full picture yet. I really hope GRRM has a well thought out conclusion to the Varys/Illyrio plots. Something that once revealed will make the reader go "oooooooooooh", rather than end the books with contradicting/illogical/unknown intentions. I'll be sorely disappointed if its just an Illyrio/Faegon Blackfyre reveal and wanting to revive their house.


It might have something to do with the Targaryen madness. He might be ambivalent whether or not to introduce Targaryens to the throne as they're so volatile. At the same time he might prefer a Targ at the throne as they're the most stable kings Westeros could hope in terms of loyalty from their subjects.
With any other family on the throne there's bound to be rebellion after rebellion.
I bet i can maı̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̸̨̨̨̨̨̨ke you wipe your screen.
Irrelevant Label
Profile Joined January 2012
United States596 Posts
August 31 2012 09:13 GMT
#3536
The assassination order against Dany could hardly have been clumsier. It was, literally, something Cersei would do as she did the same thing for Tyrion. What happened, a poor attempt is made and it pisses Drogo off, was the most likely outcome of that. I've always seen that as one of the earliest hints that Varys was at least partially looking to aid her.
moopie
Profile Joined July 2009
12605 Posts
August 31 2012 09:26 GMT
#3537
Except that the only reason Dany survived was because Jorah just happened to save her after falling in love with her. I really doubt that Varys could have foreseen that AND been sure that Jorah would have realized the poisoning attempt in time to save her. Seems like a real long shot if your goal is to help her take over the realm.

Considering he was Westeros' eyes and ears in Essos and all news came from him, he could have attempted a much worse attempt and nobody in Westeros would have been the wiser. Send an amateur knifeman or two (like Joffrey did) at her at a time when she's surrounded by Drogo and his guards or something.

Also, even if the assassination was meant to help convince Drogo to invade, theres still no reason to tell Robert and the council about her. That would have made her invasion much more successful because nobody would have seen it coming (like Aegon's so far).


Kind of hard to claim he's pro Targ.
Aerys - helped drive him insane. Yes he tried to help with Tywin and the gate, but overall he wasn't a good influence.
Rhaegar - narc'd on him to his dad to increase tension there. Could have also brought him to power really easily by poisoning Aerys and letting Rhaegar take over but I guess he didn't want to, even though everyone says how great of a king he would have been.
Viserys - Varys couldn't have wanted him in power, that would have just been another Aerys. Not "good for the realm".
Daenerys - spied on her movements and reported to Robert and the council. Plotted to assassinate her. Couldn't have known Jorah would have saved her so its safe to say he didn't care if she died (this was all pre-dragons though, maybe that changed things).
I'm going to sleep, let me get some of that carpet.
Drunken.Jedi
Profile Joined June 2009
Germany446 Posts
August 31 2012 09:37 GMT
#3538
Regarding the discussion of Westeros having been "stuck" in the middle ages for an unusually long time:

We actually do not know very much about history. As Sam points out in Dance, the records of ancient history in Westeros are spotty and unreliable, so we do not actually know how long ago the Long Night or the invasion of the Andals happened and any accounts of the weaponry and general level of technology prevalent at those times may not be accurate.
This is in line with how most historical civilizations during antiquity and the middle ages saw the past: they did not have reliable historical accounts, but they did have myths and legends. They also did not realize that technology kept improving, but instead many cultures believed in some sort of past golden age from which they had fallen.
aloT
Profile Joined April 2010
England1042 Posts
August 31 2012 11:57 GMT
#3539
I think that the culture and economy of Westeros is highly developed compared to its technology, it really feels like it is renaissance era with swords and boards. I guess they are just missing that one guy to develop gunpowder. It's not like the wars are hindering technological advancement either, since that is often a massive historical factor to gain an adaantage over the opposition
Irrelevant Label
Profile Joined January 2012
United States596 Posts
August 31 2012 13:26 GMT
#3540
Pro Targaryen and Dany being a piece that he wants to have around and relate to some of his own moves are different things. Or perhaps a better way to put it is that it isn't a question of bring a Targaryen loyalist or wanting them dead. There are further distinctions that can be made about pro-Targaryen vs pro Dany, pro Blackfyre, pro 'realm', etc. There is a lot of grayscale in the middle for positions that don't care about houses but rather happen to take actions which can support or oppose them as fits their own goals and I think that is where Varys sits. The case for Varys being pro Targ is weak and for being pro Dany is very unlikely, but the case that he simply wants Dany dead seems almost impossible given his and Illyrio's relationship and the handling of that hit attempt.

It seems safe to say Faegon is the one he wants on the throne but I didn't exactly get the impression that Connington's mission to take Faegon/Tyrion to her was hostile though except for that little bit of "you win the throne and be the conqueror but this guy is the one who will be King" pseudo passive aggression.

At the time they ordered the hit Viserys was not dead yet, so he may well have figured she was expendable and it was within acceptable parameters for her to die. Once Dany became the only established legit Targaryen that would change her status. They can't come out with this boy who has an appearance that isn't that hard to find in some parts of Essos and claim he is a prince that was thought dead without more to back it up. A Targaryen whose identity isn't in question is the clear best tool. Connington as an alibi is a distant lesser option made moreso by having him disappear in disgrace specifically to be forgotten in the the last decade.

Attaining an army with weaponizable dragons and ostensibly holding the goal of invading Westeros are also substantial game changers. Varys isn't quite Littlefinger, but anyone as good as he is in his business is a flexible opportunist such that it is unlikely that his plan as of mid book 1 is the same as what it still on the table at the end of book 5 in anything other than final goal. Even if he did want her dead then that would not mean he does now.

Either way it seems to me like poking the Dothraki hornets nest was the real motive of that hit for Varys. "Lordship to whoever kills this person" is more or less the quintessential political theatricality and publicity over effectiveness way to try to get someone killed to the point that no competent schemer would employ it if killing the target was the main goal. That theatricality is also why you get the council on it and don't stoop so absurdly low on the probability of success gradient as to hire a random drunk. It needs to lead back to 'the usurper' or all you did is contrive a way to use your spy network as a Rube Goldberg machine for killing random drunks on the other side of the world.
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