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SPOILER WARNING If you only watch the show, this thread will spoil you of future events in HBO's Game of Thrones. Thread contains discussion of all books of the series A Song of Ice and FireClick Here for the spoiler-free thread. |
On August 26 2012 06:21 Flik wrote:
Littlefinger isn't going to become king. Hes already become a great lord and powerful man, what else could he want besides Sansa? Maybe he just likes to play the game, but usually in a story there is motivation for something behind a character
my theory on Littlefinger is he will finally achieve his goal of sitting on the iron throne, but at this point the idea of a central leadership of the 7 kingdoms will be so out-dated he will realize his position is meaningless and he's little more than a figurehead for a defunct political body.
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On August 26 2012 07:03 Tewks44 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 06:21 Flik wrote:
Littlefinger isn't going to become king. Hes already become a great lord and powerful man, what else could he want besides Sansa? Maybe he just likes to play the game, but usually in a story there is motivation for something behind a character my theory on Littlefinger is he will finally achieve his goal of sitting on the iron throne, but at this point the idea of a central leadership of the 7 kingdoms will be so out-dated he will realize his position is meaningless and he's little more than a figurehead for a defunct political body.
I am sure that Littlefinger will make a play for Winterfell and the title of warden of the North.
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On August 26 2012 07:06 Titan999 wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2012 07:03 Tewks44 wrote:On August 26 2012 06:21 Flik wrote:
Littlefinger isn't going to become king. Hes already become a great lord and powerful man, what else could he want besides Sansa? Maybe he just likes to play the game, but usually in a story there is motivation for something behind a character my theory on Littlefinger is he will finally achieve his goal of sitting on the iron throne, but at this point the idea of a central leadership of the 7 kingdoms will be so out-dated he will realize his position is meaningless and he's little more than a figurehead for a defunct political body. I am sure that Littlefinger will make a play for Winterfell and the title of warden of the North.
The only way I can see this happening is if he marries Sansa. A Stark will hold the North, and I think Dany and her Dragons will deliver the North from the Others.
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Moopie might have said it on Varys. If he was actually a Targaryen loyalist there were a lot of better ways to go about it circa the rebellion and preventing it, as opposed to indirectly fanning the flames as he did by contributing to Aerys' paranoia, or involving getting Rhaegar on the throne sooner.
However, there are surely possible explanations that we simply do not have information for. The simplest one that comes to my mind is what if he made some miscalculations and/or things simply got out of hand. Maybe he was attempting something along the lines of helping drive Aerys farther over as part of getting Rhaegar in power sooner (constant with both being a Targ loyalist and wanting what is best for the realm) but then Rhaegar's prophecy hunting, Robert's resulting zeal, Aerys' mismanagement of the war and then Rhaegar's honor screwed his scheme?
Robert's rebellion was one long chain of instances of the hotter, less pragmatic or even sane head prevailing after another right up until Tywin ended it with a cold, calculating and brutally ruthless final blow. That is the kind of situation where the best laid plans of the potential schemers who helped set it in motion get trampled as things got out of hand. Then at the end, with Rhaegar no longer an option, it could make sense that he did not want what he would have known was coming from Tywin. He then warns Aerys in hopes that the gates are closed to buy time for both Ned to arrive and be the one to conduct the taking of the city while also using the time to get his next plan in motion.
At this point the line of hypothesis might support the legitimacy of Aegon as choosing him and then getting him out and safe would make sense. On the other hand a baby can be more or less safely assumed to be a blank slate and any white haired purple eyed boy could do, and those do not hold the almost-unique-to-one-family rarity they have in Westeros in Essos. All this while looking for something a bit removed from the Targaryen bloodline, though Aegon the would be 6th was not inbred, might be desirable considering their madness issue. That is a different topic though.
My bet is that he is probably not a Targaryen loyalist, supporting them has simply made sense for his real goal of the good of the realm in a few instances.
One thing I think is worth noting about judging the available evidence on Varys is regarding the epilogue to Dance. He was talking to a dead man. To a lesser extent this may have been true of his conversation with Ned too. In both cases, there isn't much reason for him to lie at that point. On the contrary, it fits with a notion of Varys as someone with good intentions trying to help the realm. Once in a safe spot where the secret isn't about to leave the room he goes ahead and shares some of his thoughts with men who are honorable and well intended themselves who he wishes he could have been more open with; to seek some measure of their understanding and approval to fulfill some of his rarely glimpsed personal needs. They are not Varys POV chapters by a long shot, but I think they are worth considering as a closer thing to a POV in terms of how true the information is to what Varys is actually thinking.
On Littlefinger, I'm going to have to quote the show incarnation and say he wants everything. It isn't about attaining some specific degree of wealth. The real world provides ample examples of how that is almost never someone's goal. He is going as far as he can, and screwing as many of these idiot nobles as he can.
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On August 26 2012 03:27 moopie wrote:
Its Varys' that doesn't always make sense, not LF. LF just wants power, and he gets it by capitalizing during times of chaos. Pretty simple as far as understanding his intentions. He is currently lord paramount of the Riverlands, lord protector of the Vale, and has plans to use Sansa to gain the North as well.
Varys is the one who's goals make little sense. If his plans were truly as simple as wanting a "sane" Targaryen on the throne, he could have easily poisoned Aerys (tears of Lys anyone?) and let Rhaegar take over peacefully as the rightful ruler long before the rebellion.
Varys' actions contradict each other. On one hand, he worked to undermine Aerys by fueling his paranoia, but at the same time he advises Aerys to close the gates to Tywin rather than let him in. Its unclear what the thought process was unless it was about Aegon all along, which meant that he didn't want to wait for Aegon to naturally succeed Rhaegar, or needed the real Aegon to die and then plant Faegon on the throne later on.
The only advantage of Aegon atm is the power that Illyrio (and thus Varys) would get from having him on the throne with them pulling some strings, but it seems way too complicated of a plan for just that. Needing both Aerys and Rhaegar dead, needing Aegon to be thought to be dead but secretly smuggled out, then going through years of forming chaos in Westeros while grooming Aegon only to have him try to retake the throne...
Seems that having Rhaegar on the throne would have been much much simpler than everything that transpired, and still given Varys the power of a trusted advisor if that was his goal. If Aegon is really a Blackfire and Illyrio's son, then it could make a tiny bit of sense but still would be a real reach for this sort of plot.
I agree. Even more so, Varys stated reason for wanting a targ on the throne is peace and stability. Why is a targ preferable? Years and years ago what would of looked far more a stable prospect would be having the targ kids killed, leaving the Baratheons without a pretender. Thats peace and stability. Later, as the incest was discovered, of course he would have to change plans and conspire for a different dynasty-- but 17 or so years ago he had no reason to think any of this would of happened.
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That idea is dead on arrival. The plot with (F?)Aegon has been in motion longer than the story arc set in motion with Jon Arryn's death/Cersei's usurping of the throne for the Lannisters via her children. It's also nearly unimaginable that Varys didn't know, or have a strong suspicion as he certainly knew about her and Jaime, about the nature of Cersei's children all along.
Targaryens are preferable because the mythos surrounding them isn't entirely a lie, even if it is just a circular logic of the mythos that makes them more respected and leads to their ability to get slightly better results as rulers. Before them nobody had united Westeros into a single and functional sovereignty and during their rule things were more stable and prosperous than anything Westeros had seen. There were two succession crisis events, civil wars, only one of which lingered as a multi-generational problem and it was a mostly distant threat from across the sea after the first quick round of fighting, and one other large war when they tried to take Dorne by force in that whole ~275 years. That is a really good record for a setting that is otherwise used to more or less constant war.
Since they were no longer in power the realm can only barely be said to have had any peace and even that turns out to have been everyone (except the Starks and Tullys) sharpening their knives for the next round. There is no king by right that anyone (other than Starks with their lawful stupid world view) respects without the dragon. There is just the throne that I can take just as easily as the guy currently holding it did. Game of thrones, everyone is winning or dying and then usually dying after having previously taken a win since it isn't something that has an end point where they declare a winner. It sounds more brutal, but kneel or burn was a lot better for most people in Westeros...in fact, prettymuch everyone was better off, but most notably the common people and the general strength of the economy who only ever lose when there is fighting.
IRL it was moved by technology and/or other innovations. In Asoiaf they apparently have to rely on dragons to at least establish a stable ruler and call that good enough. Everyone talks about how long their seasons are, but a >10k year early middle age is what sucks in the asoiaf world.
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Littlefinger can scheme all he wants there's no way he could take the Iron Throne. He survives and advances by avoiding confrontation and backstabbing and/or manipulating people, how is he going to get the chance to do that with Stannis or Aegon or Danaerys or Euron Crow's-Eye (or Victarion). Any one of them would take his head off on the instant just because he's a man of the old regime. And he's not going to convince or trick what's left of the Lannisters or Mace Tyrell to toss out Tommen, or get the Vale to go to war for him. LF is the kind of character who outmaneuvers everyone until the last move when you can't dance or pay your way out of it anymore and that's when he'll go down, he'll think he has everything figured out, it's the moment of his triumph, and then he'll get a spear in the belly.
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On August 26 2012 13:05 Irrelevant Label wrote:
IRL it was moved by technology and/or other innovations. In Asoiaf they apparently have to rely on dragons to at least establish a stable ruler and call that good enough. Everyone talks about how long their seasons are, but a >10k year early middle age is what sucks in the asoiaf world.
Well, a year in Westeros is the same length as a year IRL, it's twelve months, not 4 seasons, and a month in Westeros is as long as a month IRL. So really, all we know is they have been in the early middle ages for around 300 years, since we have only vague information on politics and religion before Aegon's landing.
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On August 26 2012 13:05 Irrelevant Label wrote:
IRL it was moved by technology and/or other innovations. In Asoiaf they apparently have to rely on dragons to at least establish a stable ruler and call that good enough. Everyone talks about how long their seasons are, but a >10k year early middle age is what sucks in the asoiaf world.
Don't forget that they have magic - at least when dragons are alive in the West, and magic seems to be alive and well in the East whether dragons are around or not. It's a trope of fantasy literature that instead of technological progress, you have progress in wielding magic.
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Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published?
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On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published?
I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state.
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On August 28 2012 01:51 ionlyplayPROtoss wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published? I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state.
Is his health in such a bad state? Would someone else finish writing the books?
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On August 28 2012 01:51 ionlyplayPROtoss wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published? I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state.
Current state? What are you talking about, is he sick?
Even if he is sick, he has tons of money, which makes dying much less likely.
Don't kill my optimism for 2 more books written by George R. R. Martin, narrated by Roy Dotrice (who, incidentally, must be in his 90s by now).
€: The Lifetime Achievement Award is a different deal. That one is announced ahead of time. I was rather startled to learn that the jury had announced ME. After all, my lifetime is not nearly over, and I have lots more achieving ahead of me, I hope... (unless the World Fantasy Award knows something that I do not).
Doesn't sound like a man dying.
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On August 28 2012 01:57 kimchikim wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2012 01:51 ionlyplayPROtoss wrote:On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published? I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state. Is his health in such a bad state? Would someone else finish writing the books?
HBO would be able to finish the series because GRRM has shared full plot notes with the producers, but I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that he would explicitly deny any attempt to finish the book in his stead.
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On August 28 2012 02:27 Dosey wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2012 01:57 kimchikim wrote:On August 28 2012 01:51 ionlyplayPROtoss wrote:On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published? I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state. Is his health in such a bad state? Would someone else finish writing the books? HBO would be able to finish the series because GRRM has shared full plot notes with the producers, but I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that he would explicitly deny any attempt to finish the book in his stead.
Wow, so theres people around who already know how everything is going to end? I wonder if that will get leaked sometime..
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On August 28 2012 02:30 kimchikim wrote:Show nested quote +On August 28 2012 02:27 Dosey wrote:On August 28 2012 01:57 kimchikim wrote:On August 28 2012 01:51 ionlyplayPROtoss wrote:On August 28 2012 01:46 kimchikim wrote:
Just had a glance over the last couple of posts and it seems like I've already forgotten so much since reading the existing 5 books all at once one year ago. First thing I remember is just the overall feeling I had while reading, couldn't put the books down, always one more page, one more page, one more page and suddenly its 4 am in the morning. Not fun turning up at uni super tired (studying contemporary dance lol).
Is there already an approximate date when the 6th book will be published? I remember in an interview he is optimistic for 2014, but it's him so probably never because I don't see him reaching 70 in his current state. Is his health in such a bad state? Would someone else finish writing the books? HBO would be able to finish the series because GRRM has shared full plot notes with the producers, but I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that he would explicitly deny any attempt to finish the book in his stead. Wow, so theres people around who already know how everything is going to end? I wonder if that will get leaked sometime..
Non-Disclosure Agreement + the risk of no one in hollywood ever working with them again + facing the wrath of HBO, GRRM, and the fans = very likely that it will not ever be leaked.
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HBO would be able to finish the series because GRRM has shared full plot notes with the producers, but I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that he would explicitly deny any attempt to finish the book in his stead.
that isent worth squat , GRRM changes the plot of each book he writes at least twice COMPLETLY. (why do you think each book takes 4-5 years?). So , even if he has given out notes , they wouldent represent his final vision.
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On August 28 2012 02:40 Irratonalys wrote:Show nested quote +
HBO would be able to finish the series because GRRM has shared full plot notes with the producers, but I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that he would explicitly deny any attempt to finish the book in his stead.
that isent worth squat , GRRM changes the plot of each book he writes at least twice COMPLETLY. (why do you think each book takes 4-5 years?). So , even if he has given out notes , they wouldent represent his final vision.
He may change the finer details in the story, but the overall vision and how he plans to end the series is already decided. That much will not change, or the story leading up to it would never make sense. With how many liberties the show has already taken, it's like it is a separate plot anyway, so them using an older version of GRRMs vision for book 6 wouldn't be any different from what we'd expect really.
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Call me crazy, but I think that Littlefinger and Varys aren't all that different in their motivations. I think that ultimately Littlefinger wants the Targarians back in power. That's the only conlcusion I can draw from him. I mean he is currently in charge of the Vale until that little whiny snot comes of age. He knows that the whiny kid (I can't remember his name and am too lazy to google) won't live (one way or another) to come of age and rule. So he's activly plotting to have Sansa marry the next guy in line.
Why?
Sure it would be great if the Vale and the North were united but where's the gain for Littlefinger? Once Sansa reveals who she is at the future wedding, there's no way the Lannister's will allow that. By revealing herself, she puts a big target on her back and would be arrested for murdering Jeoffry. There would be another civil war.
So what's the gain? To kill Sansa? Littlefinger could have done that a dozen times over back in King's Landing.
The only way that Littlefinger's plan would work would require a regime change of the 7 Kingdoms.
Go with me on this: Varys and Littlefinger are laying the groundwork so that when Dany comes back things will be as smooth as possible. Imagine Dany coming back and the Vale and the North are already locked up and pledged to her. The Lannisters are spent and can't do much, the Dornish nobility will follow Dany, Storm's End lacks leadership. The only group that can offer resistance is Highthorn, that's the only wild card.
It's all set up for a strong leader to step in and unite them once again to fight the Others
Off topic, I think that maybe, just maaaaaaybe Jaime and Brie will get it on
More off topic, where the hell is Rickton? I haven't seen him since the 2nd book. Maybe Davos (GO ONION KNIGHT!) will find him.
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On August 28 2012 03:00 daralharb wrote:
Call me crazy, but I think that Littlefinger and Varys aren't all that different in their motivations. I think that ultimately Littlefinger wants the Targarians back in power. That's the only conlcusion I can draw from him. I mean he is currently in charge of the Vale until that little whiny snot comes of age. He knows that the whiny kid (I can't remember his name and am too lazy to google) won't live (one way or another) to come of age and rule. So he's activly plotting to have Sansa marry the next guy in line.
Why?
Sure it would be great if the Vale and the North were united but where's the gain for Littlefinger? Once Sansa reveals who she is at the future wedding, there's no way the Lannister's will allow that. By revealing herself, she puts a big target on her back and would be arrested for murdering Jeoffry. There would be another civil war.
So what's the gain? To kill Sansa? Littlefinger could have done that a dozen times over back in King's Landing.
The only way that Littlefinger's plan would work would require a regime change of the 7 Kingdoms.
Go with me on this: Varys and Littlefinger are laying the groundwork so that when Dany comes back things will be as smooth as possible. Imagine Dany coming back and the Vale and the North are already locked up and pledged to her. The Lannisters are spent and can't do much, the Dornish nobility will follow Dany, Storm's End lacks leadership. The only group that can offer resistance is Highthorn, that's the only wild card.
It's all set up for a strong leader to step in and unite them once again to fight the Others
Off topic, I think that maybe, just maaaaaaybe Jaime and Brie will get it on
More off topic, where the hell is Rickton? I haven't seen him since the 2nd book. Maybe Davos (GO ONION KNIGHT!) will find him.
Rickon's hiding out on the Isle of Skagos with Osha and the cannibals, Davos will bring him back to White Harbor (or at least try to) to get Wyman Manderly to swear fealty to Stannis. EVen though he basically already has, his men are obviously gonna backstab the Freys when they try to attack Stannis' army.
I don't know if it's a plot inconsistency or some deeper game that hasn't been revealed yet, but if you read everything straight Varys was plotting to have Viserys marry Arianne Martell once Drogo gave Viserys an army of Dothraki, then have Dany marry Quentyn Martell, but at the same time he was also having Jon Connington raise Aegon in secret. The Golden Company's top men knew about the plot with Viserys / Dany but only the commander and Connington knew about Aegon. Maybe Aegon was just the backup plan, but having two different conspiracies to get a Targaryen back on the throne run by the same man seems too convoluted and deep even for Varys.
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