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On June 06 2015 17:56 Evander Berry Wall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 17:46 WolfintheSheep wrote:On June 06 2015 17:42 Evander Berry Wall wrote:
*sigh*
I just look back to a month before TI4, and all the popular, unshakable, confident, wrong predictions. Most predictions weren't that bad. Most of them got the top 6, maybe off by one. VG in second was a surprise, but Newbee winning wasn't outlandish until their group stage performance. Probably the most hyped team of the over-all year got 4th. A rapidly surging favorite (who this very site put at #1 in a power ranking) was eliminated in the first round of playoffs. One of the favorite western teams didn't make it out of group stages. A team people practically forgot even existed dominated groups stage and took 2nd place. A totally doubted American team that squeaked through the wildcard got out of a group stage that killed aforementioned western favorite and the previous year's champ. The Chinese qualifier performed better than this site's favorite. Events really didn't align with popular discussion. Newbee being champ was actually one of the most conventional things that happened (their being one game away from group stage elimination was thoroughly in the unexpected category).
This site's power rankings are a notorious joke, by the way. Mouz #6 at Ti4 and EG #6 at TS3 are just the most infamous.
Alliance also wasn't a favourite, by the way. People thought they would place higher, granted, but at best they were a very tentative #6.
All in all a couple teams did a bit worse than expected, a couple teams did a bit better, and one team that wasn't even considered for finals made it there.
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On June 06 2015 18:04 lolfail9001 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:03 clusen wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 17:58 FuzzyJAM wrote:Can't wait for C9 to beat Secret.  Not going to happen if Universe is to exist. Can absolutely happen, Secret isn't some magic next level team and FATA is really fucking good Universe will explode with C9 vs Empire finals because it would mean either Empire winning against C9 or C9 winning a tournament. Impossible to happen
Those streaks exist to be broken :p
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On June 06 2015 18:01 Kuroeeah wrote:
To be frank, i actually still believe VG has plenty of time to improve and play catch up. Yeah they're beaten convincingly as of this patch but I still thinj they can still contend a high TI placement.
It's easy to fix your meta understanding and your draft and even your hero pool, but how do you fix your mentality? This team has issues with nerves; it's very obvious to me, and were I their coach/manager, I'd be looking to fix that first.
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On June 06 2015 18:02 goody153 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:00 Kamisamanachi wrote:
and on top of that..will there be an LGD story like last year in this TI? LGD was absolutely thrashed by many people during last TI and they somehow pulled miraculous run and placed higher than everyone's expectations..will there be any story like that in this TI? and will least hyped chinese team will reach deep into event just like VG did last year? they weren't absolutely trashed i think they one a b05 against DK or something pre-TI .. also during the group stages they did well (not to mention they dropped TeamLiquid rip)
i was talking about general consensus....yea,they were in grand final of that tournament but people just simply ignored them when it came to TI ..they were also treated as weakest team of all chinese going into the event and were expected to finish in top 10 by many ,but they managed to pull some evergy and placed higher than those expectations..
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On June 06 2015 18:02 goody153 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:00 Kamisamanachi wrote:
and on top of that..will there be an LGD story like last year in this TI? LGD was absolutely thrashed by many people during last TI and they somehow pulled miraculous run and placed higher than everyone's expectations..will there be any story like that in this TI? and will least hyped chinese team will reach deep into event just like VG did last year? they weren't absolutely trashed i think they one a b05 against DK or something pre-TI .. also during the group stages they did well (not to mention they dropped TeamLiquid rip)
I think an underdog Chinese team like Ehome or even CDEC (if they pass wildcards) could make a good underdog run. I dont know if id rate EHome higher than Newbee (probably without thinking too much) but I could see it happening
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On June 06 2015 18:04 lolfail9001 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:03 clusen wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 17:58 FuzzyJAM wrote:Can't wait for C9 to beat Secret. Not going to happen if Universe is to exist. Can absolutely happen, Secret isn't some magic next level team and FATA is really fucking good Universe will explode with C9 vs Empire finals because it would mean either Empire winning against C9 or C9 winning a tournament. Impossible to happen
rofl
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On June 06 2015 18:05 Azarkon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:01 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 Azarkon wrote:
C9, especially back when they had Aui, but even now, is the mad genius of Western Dota. They have the highest amount of next level strategies that eventually become the meta for other teams. Of course they also have the highest amount of failed strategies that result in them losing horribly. Against Secret, C9's best shot is to throw them off with a next level strategy. Secret under S4 is very solid at maximizing the flexibility of a handful of strategies. But the team does have weaknesses. For example Zai doesn't play a lot of the heroes that S4 gives him at a world class level, and S4 himself isn't very versatile in terms of carry picks. Were you to throw Secret off with a pick they didn't think was meta, then an upset is doable via gaining a draft advantage through it.
But you have to work for it. We saw in the VG vs. Secret series at BTS that throwing Secret off their game one time and then playing the same strategy again isn't enough. You have to do it twice. In VG vs Secret series s4 just first banned Bounty Hunter (The key hero) twice in a row after first game, so your example is not really great. Yeah, and Secret saw that this was the center of the strategy after one game. That's what I'm trying to say. You don't get to win with the same strategy twice vs. Secret.
Yeah, impossible to beat Secret by picking Tidehunter and Lycan three games.
No way to win 2-0 by blocking Lycan and Shadow Fiend twice.
Secret too smart to fall for the same strat.
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It's impossible to outdraft the genius mind of Bone7.
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Russian Federation40190 Posts
On June 06 2015 18:08 WolfintheSheep wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:05 Azarkon wrote:On June 06 2015 18:01 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 Azarkon wrote:
C9, especially back when they had Aui, but even now, is the mad genius of Western Dota. They have the highest amount of next level strategies that eventually become the meta for other teams. Of course they also have the highest amount of failed strategies that result in them losing horribly. Against Secret, C9's best shot is to throw them off with a next level strategy. Secret under S4 is very solid at maximizing the flexibility of a handful of strategies. But the team does have weaknesses. For example Zai doesn't play a lot of the heroes that S4 gives him at a world class level, and S4 himself isn't very versatile in terms of carry picks. Were you to throw Secret off with a pick they didn't think was meta, then an upset is doable via gaining a draft advantage through it.
But you have to work for it. We saw in the VG vs. Secret series at BTS that throwing Secret off their game one time and then playing the same strategy again isn't enough. You have to do it twice. In VG vs Secret series s4 just first banned Bounty Hunter (The key hero) twice in a row after first game, so your example is not really great. Yeah, and Secret saw that this was the center of the strategy after one game. That's what I'm trying to say. You don't get to win with the same strategy twice vs. Secret. Yeah, impossible to beat Secret by picking Tidehunter and Lycan three games. No way to win 2-0 by blocking Lycan and Shadow Fiend twice. Secret too smart to fall for the same strat.
To be honest, s4 drafting is slightly less stubborn than Puppey's.
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If S4 is beaten in drafts this event, i wonder if Secret will roll the dice on the drafting seat again.
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Russian Federation40190 Posts
Bone7 knows something.... First stage ban kotol kek
EDIT: First stage pl pick... Now that's next level.
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On June 06 2015 18:06 WolfintheSheep wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 17:56 Evander Berry Wall wrote:On June 06 2015 17:46 WolfintheSheep wrote:On June 06 2015 17:42 Evander Berry Wall wrote:
*sigh*
I just look back to a month before TI4, and all the popular, unshakable, confident, wrong predictions. Most predictions weren't that bad. Most of them got the top 6, maybe off by one. VG in second was a surprise, but Newbee winning wasn't outlandish until their group stage performance. Probably the most hyped team of the over-all year got 4th. A rapidly surging favorite (who this very site put at #1 in a power ranking) was eliminated in the first round of playoffs. One of the favorite western teams didn't make it out of group stages. A team people practically forgot even existed dominated groups stage and took 2nd place. A totally doubted American team that squeaked through the wildcard got out of a group stage that killed aforementioned western favorite and the previous year's champ. The Chinese qualifier performed better than this site's favorite. Events really didn't align with popular discussion. Newbee being champ was actually one of the most conventional things that happened (their being one game away from group stage elimination was thoroughly in the unexpected category). This site's power rankings are a notorious joke, by the way. Mouz #6 at Ti4 and EG #6 at TS3 are just the most infamous. Alliance also wasn't a favourite, by the way. People thought they would place higher, granted, but at best they were a very tentative #6. All in all a couple teams did a bit worse than expected, a couple teams did a bit better, and one team that wasn't even considered for finals made it there.
I wasn't saying Alliance was the western favorite. The aforementioned favorite I was referring to was Empire. Now, for months they dueled with EG and C9 for that title, but they stayed in the top 3 of that accounting and sometimes sat at 1st.
But Alliance was inflated by name recognition and did appear to be having a bit of an upswing leading into TI4, so the group stage elimination was a shock (just not as big as Empire's).
Had someone actually presented a completely accurate prediction of TI4 at the time, it would have been thoroughly derided. But of course everything looks more reasonable in retrospect.
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My name is FH and I'm here to say
Secret's gonna win this match today
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On June 06 2015 18:04 lolfail9001 wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:03 clusen wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 17:58 FuzzyJAM wrote:Can't wait for C9 to beat Secret. Not going to happen if Universe is to exist. Can absolutely happen, Secret isn't some magic next level team and FATA is really fucking good Universe will explode with C9 vs Empire finals because it would mean either Empire winning against C9 or C9 winning a tournament. Impossible to happen
MLG Columbus 2013. Never. Forget.
And hey, that finals victory had Arteezy in it too, so. . .proves it.
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Russian Federation40190 Posts
On June 06 2015 18:13 FHDH wrote:
My name is FH and I'm here to say
Secret's gonna win this match today
Thanks captain obvious, due to Empire winning their match vs VG, C9 are doomed.
On June 06 2015 18:14 FuzzyJAM wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:04 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 18:03 clusen wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 17:58 FuzzyJAM wrote:Can't wait for C9 to beat Secret. Not going to happen if Universe is to exist. Can absolutely happen, Secret isn't some magic next level team and FATA is really fucking good Universe will explode with C9 vs Empire finals because it would mean either Empire winning against C9 or C9 winning a tournament. Impossible to happen MLG Columbus 2013. Never. Forget.
C9 were not a team back then.
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On June 06 2015 17:57 Kamisamanachi wrote:
will VG become last year's DK? i mean,i myself don't want to compare both teams as they both are wayy apart..DK's consistency in results was better than VG's and as versatile as VG..Even if DK lost some tournaments ,they always came 2nd or 3rd in them..but got 1st in most of them..and in the end ,they lost to the ever changing TI meta..will VG go the same way with their performance in 2015 since DAC?
This year's DK has to be Secret with VG coming in second. Both recruited the biggest stars they could find. Secret has the edge for star power though. VG could have recruited a better mid like Mu or Ferrari and they are also lacking a top tier captain.
Can't wait for this C9 Secret game to start though. I want to see some upsets.
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I mean, we got fucking Tusk. We fucking won. Let's move on to game two now please.
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On June 06 2015 18:13 Evander Berry Wall wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:06 WolfintheSheep wrote:On June 06 2015 17:56 Evander Berry Wall wrote:On June 06 2015 17:46 WolfintheSheep wrote:On June 06 2015 17:42 Evander Berry Wall wrote:
*sigh*
I just look back to a month before TI4, and all the popular, unshakable, confident, wrong predictions. Most predictions weren't that bad. Most of them got the top 6, maybe off by one. VG in second was a surprise, but Newbee winning wasn't outlandish until their group stage performance. Probably the most hyped team of the over-all year got 4th. A rapidly surging favorite (who this very site put at #1 in a power ranking) was eliminated in the first round of playoffs. One of the favorite western teams didn't make it out of group stages. A team people practically forgot even existed dominated groups stage and took 2nd place. A totally doubted American team that squeaked through the wildcard got out of a group stage that killed aforementioned western favorite and the previous year's champ. The Chinese qualifier performed better than this site's favorite. Events really didn't align with popular discussion. Newbee being champ was actually one of the most conventional things that happened (their being one game away from group stage elimination was thoroughly in the unexpected category). This site's power rankings are a notorious joke, by the way. Mouz #6 at Ti4 and EG #6 at TS3 are just the most infamous. Alliance also wasn't a favourite, by the way. People thought they would place higher, granted, but at best they were a very tentative #6. All in all a couple teams did a bit worse than expected, a couple teams did a bit better, and one team that wasn't even considered for finals made it there. I wasn't saying Alliance was the western favorite. The aforementioned favorite I was referring to was Empire. Now, for months they dueled with EG and C9 for that title, but they stayed in the top 3 of that accounting and sometimes sat at 1st. But Alliance was inflated by name recognition and did appear to be having a bit of an upswing leading into TI4, so the group stage elimination was a shock (just not as big as Empire's). Had someone actually presented a completely accurate prediction of TI4 at the time, it would have been thoroughly derided. But of course everything looks more reasonable in retrospect.
Wasn't Empire notorious for looking good in the winter and then collapsing during TI invite season?
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On June 06 2015 18:14 FuzzyJAM wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2015 18:04 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 18:03 clusen wrote:On June 06 2015 18:00 lolfail9001 wrote:On June 06 2015 17:58 FuzzyJAM wrote:Can't wait for C9 to beat Secret. Not going to happen if Universe is to exist. Can absolutely happen, Secret isn't some magic next level team and FATA is really fucking good Universe will explode with C9 vs Empire finals because it would mean either Empire winning against C9 or C9 winning a tournament. Impossible to happen MLG Columbus 2013. Never. Forget. And hey, that finals victory had Arteezy in it too, so. . .proves it.
they weren't facing rtz back then ! ;_;
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EPT
