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Simple Questions, Simple Answers - Page 1046

Forum Index > Dota 2 Strategy
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Birdie
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
New Zealand4438 Posts
February 23 2015 21:29 GMT
#20901
One of Dotabuff's staff mentioned that the median is about 2250 MMR if I recall correctly, with only about 20-25% of games in the High Skill and Very High Skill range. Given that those in a higher skill bracket are presumably playing more games on average, if you're 3.3k and up you're probably in the top 20% of players, and if you're 3.8k and up you're probably in the top 10% of players.

2.3k means you're pretty much the average DOTA2 player.
Red classic | A butterfly dreamed he was Zhuangzi | 4.5k, heading to 5k as support!
BluemoonSC
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
SoCal8933 Posts
February 23 2015 21:45 GMT
#20902
i would not take too much from those numbers. while they discuss the bracketing system, keep in mind that their mmr system is entirely voluntary.

so not only do you have to sign up for dotabuff, you also have to opt in on their mmr tracker. slight bias in the data set, but i'm willing to bet you're average.

also keep in mind that the skill gap between 3-4k is massive, 4-5k is massive still and 5-6k is greater, yet
LiquidDota Staff@BluemoonGG_
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6233 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-23 22:12:42
February 23 2015 21:52 GMT
#20903
Well I mean, if anything, dotabuff's system being voluntary is going to skew it upwards, so finding a median of 2.3k with an opt-in system is pretty promising. Most opt-in MMR trackers end up looking like those reddit polls that scientifically proved the average player was 4k.

The H/VH cutoffs were something like top 15%/5%, and those correspond to around 3k/3.8k. That's probably the most reliable data around, and it isn't much. There's also the MMR breakdown in the Ranked reveal blogpost, but I suspect that's pretty outdated by now.

On February 24 2015 06:29 Birdie wrote:
One of Dotabuff's staff mentioned that the median is about 2250 MMR if I recall correctly, with only about 20-25% of games in the High Skill and Very High Skill range.

Also source?
Logo
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States7542 Posts
February 23 2015 22:01 GMT
#20904
If you're used to SC2 the breakdown feels about right too. People are awful at competitive games. Like you may think of 2k as ungoldy bad, but the reality is just 90% of players are just that bad. Your perspective, almost just by virtue of being here, is really biased because the bulk of people who play the game at lower ratings aren't going to a dota website to talk about the game or learn more.
Logo
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12249 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-23 22:06:36
February 23 2015 22:02 GMT
#20905
So years ago, before ranked was added, the mean was established at 3000 with a standard deviation of 350, and High and Very High were +1σ and +2σ, or 3350 and 3700. +1σ is the 68th percentile and +2σ is the 95th percentile.
(Note: Actually I have to amend that, because I remember asking my old Valve friend at the time where the H/VH markers were in terms of rating and percentiles and he didn't know. So that may not actually be right. I remember phantasmal's post that said it was closer to 80/16/4 so that's probably more correct. The stdev stuff was right though.)

Now that ranked matchmaking is in the game and carries a separate MMR, you almost have to clean-slate it. Players tend to play differently, and some players don't play ranked at all. Only Valve knows just how different the ranked skill curve looks compared to the unranked one, but I think Dotabuff is still going by the old unranked breakpoints.

To speculate just a little bit: when you start out in Ranked, you play 10 calibration matches which affect your seed MMR more greatly than other games and have certain skill analytics measurements (based on hero damage) which the community calls "smurf detection". This is how fountain-sitting Zeus-ult-spammers were able to jump up to 6k after their first 10 games. If Valve used their unranked skill curve as a prior distribution for their ranked skill curve as a function of hero damage, then their algorithm could conclude stuff like "this guy got 100k hero damage in this game for this game length, and only the top 1% get that high, therefore his starting MMR should be around the top 1% which is 5500." So that could work just to scatter people around at the start, and if calibration is wrong they'll eventually drift toward where they actually belong. For that reason though I don't think you can definitively say that X MMR equals X percentile for Ranked unless you excluded everyone with less than, say, 200 ranked games played. If I played 10 matches and got 5500 that's one thing, but if I played 200 matches and still have 5500, that means I'm probably pulling my weight and earning that rating.
Moderator
Unleashing
Profile Joined March 2011
Denmark14978 Posts
February 23 2015 22:08 GMT
#20906
Valve tweaked it so you can't get high MMR from just dealing a lot of damage anymore.
From the Ghastly Eyrie I can see to the ends of the world, and from this vantage point I declare with utter certainty that this one is in the bag!
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6233 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-23 22:18:30
February 23 2015 22:15 GMT
#20907
On February 24 2015 07:02 Excalibur_Z wrote:
So years ago, before ranked was added, the mean was established at 3000 with a standard deviation of 350, and High and Very High were +1σ and +2σ, or 3350 and 3700. +1σ is the 68th percentile and +2σ is the 95th percentile.

Need a source for that too. There is so much misinformation around on this topic, and a mean of 3k is very different to the actual data that Valve released.

http://blog.dota2.com/2013/12/matchmaking/
5% 1100
10% 1500
25% 2000
50% 2250
75% 2731
90% 3200
95% 3900
99% 4100
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12249 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-23 22:28:25
February 23 2015 22:22 GMT
#20908
I mean, the source was literally just someone who worked at Valve (but not anymore sadly) who would look up our ratings and tell us what they were and what those numbers meant relative to the overall system. Like "hey Excal you're 3546 and 2 stdev is 3700." That was also back in the same day where it asked about your familiarity with Dotalikes which seeded your rating at a different value (the different responses started you at 2500, 3000, and 3500), so maybe that shifted things up a bit? Like I said though this was long before Valve's big ranked matchmaking post/announcement.
Moderator
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6233 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-23 22:32:36
February 23 2015 22:29 GMT
#20909
They must have rescaled it since then. I mean, the ranked reveal thing is actual published data from Valve, so whatever it looked like in the early days, that's what it was a year ago.

The familiarity question thing still happens btw. I'm not sure where it seeds you exactly but the "I am a dota god" option usually puts your first game in high, so 3k-3.5k sounds about right.
FHDH
Profile Joined July 2014
United States7023 Posts
February 23 2015 22:48 GMT
#20910
Don't get mean and median confused, guys.
После драки кулаками не машут (Don't shake your fist when the fight is over)
Excalibur_Z
Profile Joined October 2002
United States12249 Posts
February 23 2015 22:49 GMT
#20911
Right, that's true. I was talking about the mean.
Moderator
FFGenerations
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
7088 Posts
February 23 2015 22:50 GMT
#20912
you get rescaled really quickly i found, i made a few new accounts and in the first 20 games i could be at like 3.3 or 2.5 (or much less) depending on my winrate
Cool BW Music Vid - youtube.com/watch?v=W54nlqJ-Nx8 ~~~~~ ᕤ OYSTERS ᕤ CLAMS ᕤ AND ᕤ CUCKOLDS ᕤ ~~~~~~ ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ PUNCH HIM ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ
BluemoonSC
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
SoCal8933 Posts
February 23 2015 22:59 GMT
#20913
hey guys, don't mean to be rude but we're sorta trending towards "complicated question, murky answer."\

maybe we should make another thread if we wanna talk about what we assume the avg mmr is, etc.
LiquidDota Staff@BluemoonGG_
Belisarius
Profile Joined November 2010
Australia6233 Posts
February 23 2015 23:12 GMT
#20914
That's probably not a bad thread to have around anyway considering how often this comes up.
FFGenerations
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
7088 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-24 01:05:45
February 24 2015 01:03 GMT
#20915
not to derail too much but i didnt know about the trend chart thing , check out how my avg gpm changed in the last few months after i started getting better at dota lol

http://www.dotabuff.com/players/114635809/trends?date=3month&hero=&skill_bracket=&lobby_type=ranked_matchmaking&game_mode=&region=&faction=&metric=gold


edit: does this graph mean that my current average kda is 4.18 ? so i can say "i play 2.7k mmr dota with a kda of 4.18" ?

http://www.dotabuff.com/players/114635809/trends?date=6month&hero=&skill_bracket=&lobby_type=ranked_matchmaking&game_mode=&region=&faction=&metric=kda


ps: i emailed dotabuff to ask them about adding a filter to show solo ranked matches (instead of mixing it with matches where you are in a party...because i dont play seriously in those...) and they replied saying they'll look into it. maybe if you feel the same way go ahead and email them too to show support.....?
Cool BW Music Vid - youtube.com/watch?v=W54nlqJ-Nx8 ~~~~~ ᕤ OYSTERS ᕤ CLAMS ᕤ AND ᕤ CUCKOLDS ᕤ ~~~~~~ ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ PUNCH HIM ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ
l3loodraven
Profile Joined July 2013
2753 Posts
February 24 2015 02:20 GMT
#20916
I'm sure the people running dotabuff will want to be making more money before they add any substantial new free features.
"fear.dankness cuts deeper than swords"
FFGenerations
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
7088 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-24 02:45:59
February 24 2015 02:43 GMT
#20917
On February 24 2015 11:20 l3loodraven wrote:
I'm sure the people running dotabuff will want to be making more money before they add any substantial new free features.


i would subscribe instantly (to support the site) if they added that functionality because its the only functionality i really care about (my solo ranked mmr). mixing it with my party mmr makes it useless to me... i mean , dota mmr only records 2 things: ranked and solo mmr, so you would expect it to be a priority feature. they have a "substantial" range of free features already (even trend graphs!)
Cool BW Music Vid - youtube.com/watch?v=W54nlqJ-Nx8 ~~~~~ ᕤ OYSTERS ᕤ CLAMS ᕤ AND ᕤ CUCKOLDS ᕤ ~~~~~~ ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ PUNCH HIM ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ
FHDH
Profile Joined July 2014
United States7023 Posts
February 24 2015 02:58 GMT
#20918
The graph for solo and ranked MMR is separate, but yeah the other graphs you can't split. I think this is harder to execute because games aren't explicitly marked that way, so they'd have to go back through and associate games with when your solo or ranked MMR changed. And I'm not even sure they can do that: for some reason I was hooked up with the MMR Buddy thing and it was tracking me just fine for a while, then I got a notification that I'd been selected for MMR Buddy and I was like "whatever I activated it" but then I realized after doing it again that during that time it wasn't tracking my MMR. Now I have a point on the chart where I mysteriously lose 300 MMR between two points.

And for those who don't know they are only able to do this if you accept a friend request from a bot account.

As a DB subscriber I have to say the TrueSight parses are pretty excellent. I actually find the trends feature to be one of the least useful aspects because I am a data whore and line charts have to be pretty excellent to be useful. Being able to go deep on individual games though? Good shit.
После драки кулаками не машут (Don't shake your fist when the fight is over)
FFGenerations
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
7088 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-02-24 03:57:23
February 24 2015 03:55 GMT
#20919
you say the graph for solo and ranked is separate but i want solo ranked + solo party separate. i dont know what the listed "solo" stuff is but no games are listed there for me

truesight would not be useful to me, i just want to track my solo ranked winrate basically and thats it. since i play maybe 50% of my games with a friend its impossible to tell what my solo winrate/stats is

it is probably impossible to implement currently because otherwise it would have been..... their message was "We'll look into adding a filter for solo and party. Thanks for your input!" so fingers crossed
Cool BW Music Vid - youtube.com/watch?v=W54nlqJ-Nx8 ~~~~~ ᕤ OYSTERS ᕤ CLAMS ᕤ AND ᕤ CUCKOLDS ᕤ ~~~~~~ ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ PUNCH HIM ༼ ᕤ◕◡◕ ༽ᕤ
Kotreb
Profile Joined June 2011
Croatia1392 Posts
February 24 2015 11:57 GMT
#20920
Probably dumb question and sorry if it's in the wrong thread, but are you gonna be able to sell/trade the sets you get dropped in year beast?
i tried searching for a year beast thread but i only found one link which was closed :/
If you don't sin Jesus died for nothing.
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