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On February 23 2020 05:51 Danglars wrote:
Notes for Nevada ballot:
Bloomberg isn't even on it. He's all in for Super Tuesday. He also won't be on ballot for South Carolina, where Biden is hoping for his first primary win.
Much early voting was done (>30000) before the most recent debate. Those votes were locked in before the impact of possible debate winners and losers could be registered.
I cannot find any exit polls yet.
I'm watching for whether Sanders overperforms/underperforms polling, and if Biden has any life still.
From what I'm seeing at the caucuses online and cable is largely only Biden and Sanders having enough support to be viable (15%), particularly in the larger caucuses.
Here's the one from the Bellagio
Those are culinary union workers btw.
Bernie left with 62% of the vote there compared to ~35% in 2016
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I do remember that in 2016, there was a very noticeable divide between union leadership and union membership in Clinton vs Sanders support. I suspected we'd see something similar here as well, but the raw numbers are much more favorable than I expected in that regard.
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I'm following the primaries from across the Atlantic, and I gotta say it do be looking pretty good for Bernie Sanders. It looks like a movement with actual kinetic energy behind it, and at this point I would be surprised if they couldn't translate it into more primary victories.
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This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing.
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On February 24 2020 00:26 Danglars wrote:
This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing.
Just like how sociopaths unable to bend the knee helped Trump win, the same will be true here.
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Canada8989 Posts
On February 24 2020 00:26 Danglars wrote:
This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing.
I think anyone except Biden and Bloomberg are just in it for the hope of playing a role in a contested convention now, or at least they have it in the back of their heads, maybe have some weight about the choice of the vp or something like that.
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Kind of wondering what path to nomination any of these other candidates see at this point. In a world where people drop out the moment the campaign has hit a dead end, we'd be down to just Biden, Bloomer, and Sanders.
Steyer has money to spare, so I guess he'll stick around to at least South Carolina. Reasonably expect him to drop out after that.
Warren is hoping that her one debate performance is somehow going to dredge up her dying campaign. But she's losing in even her home state of Massachusetts, so it seems like a fool's errand. But she's campaigning in states as far away as Washington, which suggests to me that she intends to be in this for a stupidly long time.
Klobuchar is at least winning her home state, but her polling is overall significantly worse. I expect a drop after Super Tuesday.
Buttman is hoping that early results, buoyed by favorable media coverage and some thumb-on-scales in Iowa, will get him some more wins. I hope, and largely believe, that he's going to prove out to be an Iowa-only candidate a la Santorum. No way to spin a "second place" that's actually third place and 30 percentage points behind the winner, into anything other than a total loss.
Bloomer also has infinite money, but his campaign is finished. He's going to stay around as the voice of stopping Sanders for this entire thing, I think. Maybe hoping to make sure Sanders doesn't get more than 49% of the delegates.
Which just leaves Biden, as the one candidate with decent results going forward and the only chance of rallying a consensus around him. But he underperformed severely in the first two states relative to polling, and I suspect that that's a sign of things to come. As the only viable consensus candidate, I'd say he could win up to maybe 40% of the vote in a one-on-one. But that's not great either.
I know that these campaigns historically do just blindly trudge along even when the hope of victory is long gone, but frankly the entire concept of staying in in the hopes that the party will gift you the nomination seems absurd. John Kasich looked like an outlier before, but we have at least three Kasich candidates right now. No one seems like they're about to drop out either.
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On February 24 2020 02:10 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2020 00:26 Danglars wrote:
This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing. I think anyone except Biden and Bloomberg are just in it for the hope of playing a role in a contested convention now, or at least they have it in the back of their heads, maybe have some weight about the choice of the vp or something like that.
A conservative pundit I follow says Sanders will most likely be the nominee, BUT that Bloomberg has a path if he shows up in second place on a contested convention and bribes the DNC with 5 billion dollars, which they can use to fund all their candidates down the ballot everywhere and leaves 1-2 for himself. (To put in perspective, Trump spent 1 billion in his entire 2016 campaign). Bloomberg is worth about 65 billion so it's basically change for him lol.
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Bernie doing well,i am starting to think he could possibly even win against trump.
The virus i think its bad for the trump administration (and also the administrations in power in other nations) for a wide range of reasons and it will have an impact on the elections.
Whats up with the virus thread on this forum btw? I saw it a couple of days ago and it did have a lot of replies in a short time. There seems to be demand for such a thread and to discuss it. But the thread is locked i guess and completely removed?
Why?
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Canada8989 Posts
On February 24 2020 03:43 pmh wrote:
Bernie doing well,i am starting to think he could possibly even win against trump.
The virus i think its bad for the trump administration (and also the administrations in power in other nations) for a wide range of reasons and it will have an impact on the elections.
Whats up with the virus thread on this forum btw? I saw it a couple of days ago and it did have a lot of replies in a short time. There seems to be demand for such a thread and to discuss it. But the thread is locked i guess and completely removed?
Why?
There was some personal situation with the author of the thread and how the whole thing was being handle/presented.
You can probably make a thread on it if you want, maybe ask Seeker first.
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On February 24 2020 00:26 Danglars wrote:
This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing.
I agree it's like GOP primary 2016 again, meaning people kept saying if only the race would be between only Trump and 1-2 others, he couldnt win, cuz he has a ceiling, cuz he has a fanatic support base but cant grow, nobody wants to associate with him etc... the last comment always being he has 0% in the general elections
And then Trump proved all these lines wrong, one by one.
If you take the most recent state, Nevada, as an example, then even the incredibly childish "all the moderates put together have more votes" kinda argument doesnt hold true. He beats the Biden+Pete+Klobuchar votes added together.
Do you not realize how outlandish it sounds, that in a 6+ member race, the threshold should be that one of them has to beat all the others put together? No, he has to win, that's it. It's harder to score 50+% in a divided field, that s just mathematics. (EDIT: talking about the individual state-results here, not the primary/ convention debate)
Like, where does this assumption come from, that Bernie voters are Bernie voters, and the other voters would never vote for him in a million years, and all would would vote for Caligula's horse, if it was 1v1 vs Bernie.
Some people vote for Pete cuz he's young, or he's gay, or he's whatever.
Same for Biden, some people vote for him cuz of Obama, or fill in the blanks....
That doesnt mean, that if somehow their nr 1 choice would disappear, they would go over to anyone but Sanders. Some would stay home, some would vote against Sanders, and some would go (had gone) over to him. It's what happened last night.
He's steadily rising, posting better and better results, better and better polls after each week.
After the first caucus, Iowa, you could kinda say, that he wasnt the 2nd choice for most people at the realignment phase, fine, that's true and was a cause for 538's model to lower his chances. In Nevada the opposite happened, he came out way ahead after the realignments. And it's not like Nevada is a particularly good state for him, mostly urban population, lost it in 2016, he was behind in polls just a month ago, the big union was kinda against him, Nevadans vote for a lot of women locally, he's from the other side of the country... really nothing about Nevada screams Bernie Sanders, yet he'll end up with anywhere between 45-48%.
If that's not a sign, that he's on a roll, and he can pick up new supporters, then im not sure what is.
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On February 24 2020 03:43 pmh wrote:
Bernie doing well,i am starting to think he could possibly even win against trump.
![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/ByVfXo0.png)
Polls can certainly change, but his head-to-head against Trump is literally the strongest out of all the Democratic candidates at this point in time, especially in swing states where it'll really matter.
I also think Sanders is less likely than some other candidates to be distracted by Trump's idiocy during the general election debates, because Sanders has been stubbornly consistent and on-message for literally decades.
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On February 24 2020 01:38 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2020 00:26 Danglars wrote:
This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing. Just like how sociopaths unable to bend the knee helped Trump win, the same will be true here.
Sociopaths is a little too on the nose for me, but my sentiment is similar.
On February 24 2020 02:10 Nakajin wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2020 00:26 Danglars wrote:
This is the phase where three (maybe more) different people say the others must drop out immediately and throw their support to him/her, or Sanders definitely wins. It’s 2015-6 vibes. More people voting for candidates other than Sanders, but Sanders in a clear lead.
RCP has Biden in South Carolina dropping from +20 to +2.3 in its poll averages, to give people a sense of the swing. I think anyone except Biden and Bloomberg are just in it for the hope of playing a role in a contested convention now, or at least they have it in the back of their heads, maybe have some weight about the choice of the vp or something like that.
Or hoping against hope their relatively moderate lane rivals drop out quickly from scandal or money troubles...
Or hoping to raise their national stature for future appointments...
Or wishing Sanders has another heart attack followed by long recovery... Remember Warren looking good for a second or two after his first during the campaign.
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On February 24 2020 02:21 LegalLord wrote:
Bloomer also has infinite money, but his campaign is finished. He's going to stay around as the voice of stopping Sanders for this entire thing, I think. Maybe hoping to make sure Sanders doesn't get more than 49% of the delegates.
When you have someone with infinite money like Bloomer, it's not over til the fat lady sings, imo.
I think it's far too early to put a nail in his coffin. He has the capital to win huge states like New York, Texas, and Florida, which also happens to be a swing state.
I also don't think Bloomberg is unpopular with the minority/PoC vote as people think.
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On February 24 2020 15:29 BerserkSword wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2020 02:21 LegalLord wrote:
Bloomer also has infinite money, but his campaign is finished. He's going to stay around as the voice of stopping Sanders for this entire thing, I think. Maybe hoping to make sure Sanders doesn't get more than 49% of the delegates. When you have someone with infinite money like Bloomer, it's not over til the fat lady sings, imo. I think it's far too early to put a nail in his coffin. He has the capital to win huge states like New York, Texas, and Florida, which also happens to be a swing state. I also don't think Bloomberg is unpopular with the minority/PoC vote as people think.
Trump's campaign dominated before spending much money at all. Money is significantly less capable of carrying an election. We are seeing from Bloomer that it can totally buy you ~18% support, for a bit, but it needs to be sustained. You can pay to get your name out there, but no money in the world can make you a better candidate.
Especially in the age of social media. Bernie basically got started in this whole running for president thing from social media alone. It eventually turned into a gigantic operation, but he really did rise from the rubble.
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On February 25 2020 04:40 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2020 03:48 Mohdoo wrote:On February 24 2020 15:29 BerserkSword wrote:On February 24 2020 02:21 LegalLord wrote:
Bloomer also has infinite money, but his campaign is finished. He's going to stay around as the voice of stopping Sanders for this entire thing, I think. Maybe hoping to make sure Sanders doesn't get more than 49% of the delegates. When you have someone with infinite money like Bloomer, it's not over til the fat lady sings, imo. I think it's far too early to put a nail in his coffin. He has the capital to win huge states like New York, Texas, and Florida, which also happens to be a swing state. I also don't think Bloomberg is unpopular with the minority/PoC vote as people think. Trump's campaign dominated before spending much money at all. Money is significantly less capable of carrying an election. We are seeing from Bloomer that it can totally buy you ~18% support, for a bit, but it needs to be sustained. You can pay to get your name out there, but no money in the world can make you a better candidate. Especially in the age of social media. Bernie basically got started in this whole running for president thing from social media alone. It eventually turned into a gigantic operation, but he really did rise from the rubble. I think Money is still super important and Bernie actually has tons of it. The big difference is his comes in in much smaller amounts by way more people so it is more consistent. Whereas someone like Biden was relying on max donations by big spenders, which have since dried up, partly because they are maxed but also because the people can't get and "return on investment" if biden does not win, which is looking highly likely right now. I read that Bernie has raised the most or almost tied every month so far. I have not seen the amount spent but I think Bernie is right up there if not 2nd behind only bloomberg.
Yeah I suppose my point is that in Bernie's case, his funding a direct result of how successful his message is. If Bernie had all this money, yet not many supporters, it wouldn't do him any good other than reaching people who aren't politically interested, as Bloomer has done.
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On February 25 2020 03:48 Mohdoo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2020 15:29 BerserkSword wrote:On February 24 2020 02:21 LegalLord wrote:
Bloomer also has infinite money, but his campaign is finished. He's going to stay around as the voice of stopping Sanders for this entire thing, I think. Maybe hoping to make sure Sanders doesn't get more than 49% of the delegates. When you have someone with infinite money like Bloomer, it's not over til the fat lady sings, imo. I think it's far too early to put a nail in his coffin. He has the capital to win huge states like New York, Texas, and Florida, which also happens to be a swing state. I also don't think Bloomberg is unpopular with the minority/PoC vote as people think. Trump's campaign dominated before spending much money at all. Money is significantly less capable of carrying an election. We are seeing from Bloomer that it can totally buy you ~18% support, for a bit, but it needs to be sustained. You can pay to get your name out there, but no money in the world can make you a better candidate. Especially in the age of social media. Bernie basically got started in this whole running for president thing from social media alone. It eventually turned into a gigantic operation, but he really did rise from the rubble.
I still don't think Bernie's situation really resemebles Trump's...
Trump ran as a Republican and is a billionaire himself. He always had his personal cushion of money to fall back on, and he didn't have to worry about DNC superdelegates or a firewall of ideologically differing swing states. Not only that, but we still don't truly have a good idea of either Bernie's or Bloomer's true popularity. Personally, I wouldnt put the nail in anyone's coffin until major battlegrounds or super tuesday or something.
As a New Yorker I've seen Bloomberg win over the votes of New Yorkers....TWICE as a republican and once as an independent. He basically bought his third term. New Yorkers electing a republican billionaire from boston to office an unprecedented 3 times is insane. The same New York City which is over 50% black and hispanic.
Obviously this was a long time ago but I'm not gonna count someone like this out yet.
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Tonight is a hugely important Democratic debate in South Carolina, which can set some serious momentum for both the SC primary (this Saturday) and for Super Tuesday (a week from today, March 3rd, which is the day with the most state primaries: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia).
Some different strategies that tonight's candidates may consider:
1. All-out attack on the clear frontrunner: Bernie Sanders;
2. Continuing to preemptively attack the looming Super Tuesday threat of Mike Bloomberg, like what we saw last debate;
3. Oddly enough, focusing on Joe Biden for once, since he's currently the SC frontrunner (although he's been dropping and Sanders has been slowly catching up);
4. Those who aren't polling well with the black community (e.g., Buttigieg, Klobuchar) are also likely to go into super-tryhard-i-love-black-people mode;
5. If Sanders can successfully play defense for the evening, he should be just fine going into SC and Super Tuesday. He's polling consistently well in all those states, and his lead would likely increase.
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EPT
