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On October 26 2018 09:05 iamthedave wrote:Show nested quote +On October 26 2018 06:43 xDaunt wrote:Is the "blue wave" turning purple?
Republican-affiliated voters have outpaced Democratic-affiliated voters in early voting in seven closely watched states, according to data provided by TargetSmart and independently analyzed by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.
GOP-affiliated voters have surpassed Democratic-affiliated ones in early voting in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, the data showed.
Only in Nevada have Democratic-affiliated voters exceeded Republican-affiliated voters so far in early voting, according to the data.
Key Senate races are underway in seven of those eight states and will prove pivotal in determining which party controls the chamber.
The latest data suggests robust enthusiasm among early Republican voters that could put a dent in Democratic hopes for a "blue wave" in next month's midterm elections.
Republicans typically dominate early voting by absentee ballots, while Democrats tend to have the advantage with in-person early voting. So, for example, the entire early voting picture in Florida, which has yet to begin in-person voting, is incomplete. Read the rest here. The correct answer is that there never was a blue wave. It was all manufactured. And it's looking increasingly likely that what is coming might be the opposite. Poor Nate Silver may be in for another bad night. Unless it turns out there is one, and it wasn't manufactured. Then you'll look very silly indeed. At one point there certainly did look to be heavy momentum. Or did you forget the Democrats taking Alabama already? Lots of little victories in unusual places. The momentum just seems to be fading a bit. Whether that results in middling results, glorious victory or embarrassing defeat, doesn't mean the wave didn't happen or wasn't there. It just might not have been as big as a lot of people were hoping. Certainly there are some races that are a lot closer than expected.
I don't think it was manufactured but Democrats definitely killed it by ignoring the calls for a positive message and instead did everything they could to try to bring down Trump's approval numbers. They did such an awful job that his numbers are better than they were months ago.
Pretty much no major liberal outlet highlighted it but most of those special election wins from Democrats were unique cases. Go back and look through and you'll find out that they were winning seats abandoned by Republicans out of shame, death or a combination of the two. The exception being Moore who was the most notorious creeper on kids in the state.
They don't have such easy races in most places so I expect a single digit majority (which is an epic fail, and for practical purposes, still a Republican majority) but I wouldn't be surprised if they do even worse. If they do manage a double digit majority I suspect it will be tied to the local candidates in other races boosting left leaning turnout.
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PSA on the term "Hispanic":
Just so people are aware, about 90% of "Hispanic" people in the US are white* .
Put another way, being Hispanic doesn't make someone not-white*.
*disclaimer "White" isn't scientifically a race either
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Canada11389 Posts
Is it then ever meaningful to say someone is white aside from saying they are not-Black? (However scientific the term may or may not be.)
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On October 26 2018 12:38 Falling wrote:
Is it then ever meaningful to say someone is white aside from saying they are not-Black? (However scientific the term may or may not be.)
Depends on who, when and why it comes up. But it is a construct of exclusion, that's an accurate observation.
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Something about this bomb thing doesn't smell right to me. I can't put my finger on it just yet but it sorta feels like when the FBI talks some mentally unwell person into becoming a "terrorist".
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There are a whole bunch of things that are fishy about this bomb business, including the fact that none of the bombs was apparently meant to go off. I think that we will figure out who is doing this sooner rather than later given that the packages all must have been hand-delivered by someone involved in the plot.
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On October 26 2018 22:51 xDaunt wrote:
There are a whole bunch of things that are fishy about this bomb business, including the fact that none of the bombs was apparently meant to go off. I think that we will figure out who is doing this sooner rather than later given that the packages all much have been hand-delivered by someone involved in the plot.
One of the things I just realized that I think made it weird is that they used DWS's address but didn't bother to send her one. It seems like an elaborate (and messing with your freedom troll). afaik they've only reported that "some" of them were lacking critical functionality. Which is also typical of the FBI groomed terrorists I was talking about.
Regardless I'm sure this gins up support/justification for more bloated "anti-terrorism" spending. Blows my mind how the media can obsessively cover some things and others they can't muster up a segment/piece a week.
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On October 26 2018 22:51 xDaunt wrote:
There are a whole bunch of things that are fishy about this bomb business, including the fact that none of the bombs was apparently meant to go off. I think that we will figure out who is doing this sooner rather than later given that the packages all must have been hand-delivered by someone involved in the plot.
Right on cue, CNN is reporting that the FBI has made an arrest. Let's see who it is.
EDIT: DOJ will be holding a press conference at 2:30 EDT.
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Here's a picture of the guy's van:
![[image loading]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DqcdGMEWsAICOPq.jpg)
There's no much wrong with this that I don't even know where to begin.
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well one thing is is made clear, everyone hates Michael* Moore. Not Roy. though, maybe not *not* Roy.
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On October 27 2018 00:55 xDaunt wrote:Here's a picture of the guy's van: There's no much wrong with this that I don't even know where to begin.
His taste in decor is pretty rubbish, I agree.
Also, he probably will turn out to be some variety of nutcase. But that was kind of a given.
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I need to know the life choices that lead him to purchase the “I’m gunna commit a bunch of crimes” white van.
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He looks like the average Alex Jones poster that you encounter on Youtube, there's a decent chance that I've seen some of his posts already.
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On October 27 2018 00:55 xDaunt wrote:Here's a picture of the guy's van: There's no much wrong with this that I don't even know where to begin.
I mean this still sounds remarkably like an FBI op but the Florida part makes it totally probable that it's just a deranged Trump supporter.
This is the example I'm thinking of:
Osmakac was the target of an elaborately orchestrated FBI sting that involved a paid informant, as well as FBI agents and support staff working on the setup for more than three months. The FBI provided all of the weapons seen in Osmakac’s martyrdom video. The bureau also gave Osmakac the car bomb he allegedly planned to detonate, and even money for a taxi so he could get to where the FBI needed him to go. Osmakac was a deeply disturbed young man, according to several of the psychiatrists and psychologists who examined him before trial. He became a “terrorist” only after the FBI provided the means, opportunity and final prodding necessary to make him one.
https://theintercept.com/2015/03/16/howthefbicreatedaterrorist/
The bombs seem just real enough to convince someone they were building a real bomb, but I imagine there are youtube videos like that.
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what are the FBIs motivations in this supposed entrapment
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On October 27 2018 07:37 IgnE wrote:
what are the FBIs motivations in this supposed entrapment
Increased funding and relevance supported by Democrats for one. Beyond that it seems they and Trump have been beefing for a little while now so this would be a reasonable response to presumably put pressure on Trump to tone down his rhetoric , though that would presume an awareness and sense of responsibility I think Trump lacks and would have a hard time believing the FBI was convinced of.
Adding to the "relevance" part I can see increased political violence being used to justify an emboldened domestic "security" apparatus.
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On October 27 2018 07:53 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On October 27 2018 07:37 IgnE wrote:
what are the FBIs motivations in this supposed entrapment Increased funding and relevance supported by Democrats for one. Beyond that it seems they and Trump have been beefing for a little while now so this would be a reasonable response to presumably put pressure on Trump to tone down his rhetoric , though that would presume an awareness and sense of responsibility I think Trump lacks and would have a hard time believing the FBI was convinced of. Adding to the "relevance" part I can see increased political violence being used to justify an emboldened domestic "security" apparatus.
People have had photos of this dude's truck from years ago, because this shit looked nuts back then too. Unless the FBI approached him after Trump was president for 2 years and said "look, let's make a deal", they would have to be clairvoyant to be running that operation themselves. I find it difficult to believe. But I somewhat understand the skepticism.
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i have a two part 2018 hypothesis:
1) the way the internet and social media reward loud/fast/extreme/ignorant voices leads to a greater number of more elaborate conspiracy theories for every event believed by more people
2) the way the internet and social media are available to almost literally everyone makes elaborate conspiracies harder than ever to pull off
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On October 27 2018 08:30 NewSunshine wrote:Show nested quote +On October 27 2018 07:53 GreenHorizons wrote:On October 27 2018 07:37 IgnE wrote:
what are the FBIs motivations in this supposed entrapment Increased funding and relevance supported by Democrats for one. Beyond that it seems they and Trump have been beefing for a little while now so this would be a reasonable response to presumably put pressure on Trump to tone down his rhetoric , though that would presume an awareness and sense of responsibility I think Trump lacks and would have a hard time believing the FBI was convinced of. Adding to the "relevance" part I can see increased political violence being used to justify an emboldened domestic "security" apparatus. People have had photos of this dude's truck from years ago, because this shit looked nuts back then too. Unless the FBI approached him after Trump was president for 2 years and said "look, let's make a deal", they would have to be clairvoyant to be running that operation themselves. I find it difficult to believe. But I somewhat understand the skepticism.
Was it years? Pretty sure I read months and they don't look years old either? I really don't know.
But no, there would be no need for the FBI to have been working on this for years or any clairvoyance. Just prod and furnish (through some guy he met at a bar or some crap) the means for him to go about it.
Helping terrorists build fake bombs and giving them guns is something the FBI is known to have done. This guy would be a prime candidate for a Trumpublican version of the example I gave. As I said before though, it's probably just a deranged person acting out their derangement.
Regardless, I think it makes domestic security more invasive and weakens Democratic opposition to it.
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I've caught up with a bit of the Republican spin on this and I just wanted to make it clear that I've said three times now, it was probably and by all reports a deranged guy doing deranged things. I just couldn't figure out what seemed so odd about the whole thing until I noticed the parallels between this story and the intercept story about previous attempts from the FBI to create terrorists for political purposes.
It's actually not something that just started happening during the Bush administration either. If people think the FBI goading this bomber is implausible they'd have a hell of a time digesting COINTELPRO.
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EPT
